Qipco 2000 Guineas Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (Guineas Festival)

Updated: 6939 Horse Racing

Contested over a distance of 1m is the Qipco 2000 Guineas which is scheduled to take place at Newmarket during the Guineas Festival. Below we have detailed past winners along with both trainer and jockey records in the race and see which trends have been set based on past winners of the Qipco 2000 Guineas.

Qipco 2000 Guineas Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (Guineas Festival)
Andy Powell Content Editor

Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.

2024 Qipco 2000 Guineas Preview

The 2000 Guineas is held at the Rowley Mile course at Newmarket each year in early May. The race is a Group 1 open to three-year-old colts and fillies and is run over a straight mile. Colts all run off a weight of 9-0 whilst fillies get a 3lb allowance and run over 8-11.

Only runners rated 80+ can enter unless the runner does not hold a handicap mark and the handicapper deems the runner worthy of the mark. The current purse for the race is £500k with just over £280k going to the winner. The race serves as the opening of five British Classics with the 1000 Guineas run the next day.

The other three are the Epson Oaks & Derby and finally the St. Leger. It is also the first race of the Triple Crown series with the Oaks and Derby making up the three races.

Qipco 2000 Guineas Information:

If you are interested in other predictions at Newmarket then head over to the Newmarket tips page to see which runners are being supported by the OLBG racing tipsters and also compare those predictions to the runners that make the trend shortlist when added below. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Other Principal Races at Newmarket Racecourse section for links to these.

How competitive is the Qipco 2000 Guineas market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2020 when the race had an over-round of 116%. The race in 2019 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 129%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Qipco 2000 Guineas, the over-round has been 123%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £123 which is bet.

Qipco 2000 Guineas Trends:

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Qipco 2000 Guineas next time out then you would have backed a total of 8 winners. Backing all 18 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -1.83. Whilst we wait for the 2024 Qipco 2000 Guineas remember you can get daily racing predictions from the expert tipsters on the racing predictions page.

When looking over the past 20 renewals, a time of 1:34.72 was set by Kameko in 2020, which is the quickest time over that period, the runner was trained by Andrew Balding and ridden by Oisin Murphy. The slowest winning time was set in 2012 when Camelot won in a time of 1:42.46, booked to ride was Joseph O'Brien on this A P O'Brien trained runner.

These are the top three quickest-run Qipco 2000 Guineas over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2020 - Kameko (1:34.72)
  • 2007 - Cockney Rebel (1:35.28)
  • 2021 - Poetic Flare (1:35.69)

Qipco 2000 Guineas Past Winners

Here are the Qipco 2000 Guineas past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and also the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Qipco 2000 Guineas as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse (Drawn) Info
2023
1:41.64
Chaldean (GB)
3yo 9-2 (3 of 14) 7/2
Frankie Dettori
Andrew Balding (GB)
2022
1:36.27
Coroebus (IRE)
3yo 9-0 (1 of 15) 5/1
James Doyle
Charlie Appleby (GB)
2021
1:35.69
Poetic Flare (IRE)
3yo 9-0 (4 of 14) 16/1
Kevin Manning
J S Bolger (IRE)
2020
1:34.72
Kameko (USA)
3yo 9-0 (15 of 15) 10/1
Oisin Murphy
Andrew Balding (GB)
2019
1:36.84
Magna Grecia (IRE)
3yo 9-0 (17 of 19) 11/2
Donnacha O'Brien
A P O'Brien (IRE)
2018
1:36.55
Saxon Warrior (JPN)
3yo 9-0 (9 of 14) 3/1
Donnacha O'Brien
A P O'Brien (IRE)
2017
1:36.61
Churchill (IRE)
3yo 9-0 (3 of 10) 6/4F
Ryan Moore
A P O'Brien (IRE)
2016
1:35.91
Galileo Gold (GB)
3yo 9-0 (1 of 13) 14/1
Frankie Dettori
Hugo Palmer (GB)
2015
1:37.55
Gleneagles (IRE)
3yo 9-0 (16 of 18) 4/1F
Ryan Moore
A P O'Brien (IRE)
2014
1:36.61
Night Of Thunder (IRE)
3yo 9-0 (3 of 14) 40/1
Kieren Fallon
Richard Hannon (GB)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Qipco 2000 Guineas have been based:

  • IRE: 11 winners with an additional 7 placings from 67 runners
  • GB: 8 winners with an additional 28 placings from 228 runners
  • FR: 1 winner with an additional 5 placings from 13 runners
  • SPA: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
  • SAF: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner

Qipco 2000 Guineas Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the Qipco 2000 Guineas over the last 20 renewals is A P O'Brien who has won the race eight times with those eight winners coming from Footstepsinthesand (2005), George Washington (2006), Henrythenavigator (2008), Camelot (2012), Gleneagles (2015), Churchill (2017), Saxon Warrior (2018) and Magna Grecia (2019). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Qipco 2000 Guineas are J S Bolger (2 wins) and Andrew Balding (2 wins). There is one trainer who has not had the best of times in the Qipco 2000 Guineas, Saeed bin Suroor has sent a total of 14 runners to the race without recording any wins.

Here are some of the top Qipco 2000 Guineas trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
A P O'Brien 48-8-11 -5.12 -17.91
J S Bolger 8-2-4 +11.38 +6.32
Andrew Balding 8-2-2 +7.50 +2.10
Richard Hannon 15-1-4 +26.00 +11.85
Charlie Appleby 12-1-5 -6.00 -4.95
Hugo Palmer 4-1-1 +11.00 +5.40
M Delzangles 3-1-2 +31.00 +15.00
Saeed bin Suroor 14-0-1 -14.00 -12.70
Kevin Ryan 7-0-2 -7.00 +21.50
John Gosden 7-0-1 -7.00 -6.35

Qipco 2000 Guineas Jockey Statistics

There are two leading jockeys in the Qipco 2000 Guineas over the last 20 renewals with both Frankie Dettori and Ryan Moore who have both won the race two times. Frankie Dettori's winners have been with Galileo Gold (2016) and Chaldean (2023). Ryan Moore winners have been with Gleneagles (2015) and Churchill (2017). There are two jockeys who have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Qipco 2000 Guineas, William Buick has ridden a total of 13 runners to the race without recording any wins whilst Jamie Spencer has ridden 10 without a winner.

Here are some of the top Qipco 2000 Guineas jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Frankie Dettori 18-2-4 +1.50 -2.95
Ryan Moore 14-2-4 -6.50 -7.65
James Doyle 11-1-4 -5.00 -5.00
Olivier Peslier 4-1-3 +22.00 +12.10
Oisin Murphy 4-1-2 +7.00 +16.00
Tom Queally 4-1-1 -2.50 -2.70
Christophe-Patrice Lemaire 3-1-1 +31.00 +14.50
William Buick 13-0-6 -13.00 -3.65
Jamie Spencer 10-0-3 -10.00 +10.10
Jim Crowley 9-0-1 -9.00 -7.40

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 13, 5, 1, 12, 2, 2, 6, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 12, 1, 3, 5, 3, 13, 2, 12

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (56%) - Achieved an RPR of 110+ (Last 3)
  • 20 / 20 (68%) - No bigger than 40/1
  • 20 / 20 (71%) - Highest Placed is not LST/Cl2-5
  • 20 / 20 (73%) - Within the first 11 of market
  • 20 / 20 (74%) - No bigger than 7/1 (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (76%) - No bigger than 14/1 (Career Place)
  • 20 / 20 (76%) - Made 2 - 6 starts (Career)
  • 20 / 20 (77%) - No bigger than 10/1 (Debut)
  • 20 / 20 (80%) - Not in a Cl2/Cl3/Cl5 (Last Win)
  • 20 / 20 (80%) - No bigger than 10/1 (Career Win)
  • 20 / 20 (81%) - Beaten no more -3½l (Debut)
  • 20 / 20 (83%) - In a field of 5 - 12 (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (84%) - Furthest Placed 7f - 1mf
  • 20 / 20 (86%) - Won within last 3 starts
  • 20 / 20 (87%) - Beaten no more -4½l (LTO)

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Newmarket racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Qipco 2000 Guineas. You may want to do your own research into the race, there are times when there are a number of runners who pass the trends so you need to do your own research to find a bet, we have a Horse Racing Form Reading Made Easy & What to Look For article to help you do just this in the OLBG Betting School section.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Qipco 2000 Guineas by adding a tip on the race here.

Qipco 2000 Guineas Trend Analysis

The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +63.38 is when runners carried 127lbs when last winning. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners ran in a race worth £4,000 on debut, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-51.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2023: Winner in 3 (4,11) [14 Runners]
  • 2022: Winner in 1 (15,4) [15 Runners]
  • 2021: Winner in 4 (2,3) [14 Runners]
  • 2020: Winner in 15 (9,7) [15 Runners]
  • 2019: Winner in 17 (19,3) [19 Runners]

The course which has produced the most winners of the Qipco 2000 Guineas is Newmarket (Rowley), there has been a total number of 4 winners of this race who ran at Newmarket (Rowley) last time out. The next best courses which have produced the second most winners are Newbury, Doncaster and Curragh, there has been a total number of 3 winners from each of those courses.

Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Qipco 2000 Guineas:

  • Dubawi (3 Wins)
  • Galileo (3 Wins)

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Qipco 2000 Guineas despite multiple attempts:

  • Oasis Dream (0 Wins from 8 runners)
  • War Front (0 Wins from 7 runners)
  • Dark Angel (0 Wins from 5 runners)
  • Dutch Art (0 Wins from 5 runners)
  • Johannesburg (0 Wins from 5 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Night Of Thunder in 2014, winning for Richard Hannon at odds of 40/1 under the guidance of Kieren Fallon. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 6 winning favourites in the race. Before placing your bet on the 2024 Qipco 2000 Guineas head over to see which other runners today are being backed by the best racing tipsters today.

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