2022 Qipco 2000 Guineas Preview, Trends & Analysis

Published: Apr 21, 2:49pm Last Updated: May 2, 1:17pm Horse Racing 4 Comments 4261 Views

2022 Qipco 2000 Guineas Preview

The 2000 Guineas Stakes stakes is held at the Rowley Mile course at Newmarket each year in early May. The race is a Group 1 open to three-year-old colts and fillies and is run over a straight mile. Colts all run off a weight of 9-0 whilst fillies get a 3lb allowance and run over 8-11.

Only runners rated 80+ can enter unless the runner does not hold a handicap mark and the handicapper deems the runner worthy of the mark. The current purse for the race is £375k with just over £210k going to the winner. The race serves as the opening of five British Classics with the 1000 Guineas run the next day.

The other three are the Epson Oaks & Derby and finally the St. Leger. It is also the first race of the Triple Crown series with the Oaks and Derby making up the three races.

Why not use the trends shortlist below to help you narrow down the field and then head over to the dedicated Newmarket Betting Picks page to see which of those runners are being supported by the OLBG expert racing tipsters to find yourself a bet.

The runner which holds the record over past 20 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2012 renewal when Camelot from A P O'Brien who under the guidance of Joseph O'Brien, won in a time of 1:42.46, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Kameko, trained by Andrew Balding and ridden by Oisin Murphy set the quickest time of 1:34.72 in the 2020 renewal.

These are the top three quickest run Qipco 2000 Guineas over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2020 - Kameko (1:34.72)
  • 2007 - Cockney Rebel (1:35.28)
  • 2021 - Poetic Flare (1:35.69)

How competitive is the Qipco 2000 Guineas market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2020 when the race had an over-round of 116%. The race in 2002 was a race which was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 130%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Qipco 2000 Guineas, the over-round has been 123% which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £123 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Qipco 2000 Guineas next time out then you would have back a total of 8 winners. Backing all 18 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -2.17. Ahead of the 2022 Qipco 2000 Guineas why not head over to the racing predictions for tips on other races today.

Qipco 2000 Guineas Past Ten Winners

Here are the past 10 winners of the Qipco 2000 Guineas. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall which the horse came from and also the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Qipco 2000 Guineas as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse (Drawn) Info
2021
1:35.69
Poetic Flare
3yo 9-0 (4 of 14) 16/1
Kevin Manning
J S Bolger
2020
1:34.72
Kameko
3yo 9-0 (15 of 15) 10/1
Oisin Murphy
Andrew Balding
2019
1:36.84
Magna Grecia
3yo 9-0 (17 of 19) 11/2
Donnacha O'Brien
A P O'Brien
2018
1:36.55
Saxon Warrior
3yo 9-0 (9 of 14) 3/1
Donnacha O'Brien
A P O'Brien
2017
1:36.61
Churchill
3yo 9-0 (3 of 10) 6/4F
Ryan Moore
A P O'Brien
2016
1:35.91
Galileo Gold
3yo 9-0 (1 of 13) 14/1
Frankie Dettori
Hugo Palmer
2015
1:37.55
Gleneagles
3yo 9-0 (16 of 18) 4/1F
Ryan Moore
A P O'Brien
2014
1:36.61
Night Of Thunder
3yo 9-0 (3 of 14) 40/1
Kieren Fallon
Richard Hannon
2013
1:35.84
Dawn Approach
3yo 9-0 (6 of 13) 11/8F
Kevin Manning
J S Bolger
2012
1:42.46
Camelot
3yo 9-0 (12 of 18) 15/8F
Joseph O'Brien
A P O'Brien

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Qipco 2000 Guineas have been based:

  • IRE: 13 winners with an additional 7 placings from 69 runners
  • GB: 6 winners with an additional 28 placings from 237 runners
  • FR: 1 winner with an additional 5 placings from 15 runners
  • SPA: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
  • SAF: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner

Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the Qipco 2000 Guineas over the last 20 renewals is A P O'Brien who has won the race 9 times. Those 9 winners came from Rock Of Gibraltar (2002), Footstepsinthesand (2005), George Washington (2006), Henrythenavigator (2008), Camelot (2012), Gleneagles (2015), Churchill (2017), Saxon Warrior (2018) & Magna Grecia (2019). The only other trainer to have recorded multiple wins in the Qipco 2000 Guineas is J S Bolger (2 wins). There is one trainer who has not had the best of times in the Qipco 2000 Guineas, Saeed bin Suroor has sent a total of 19 runners to the race without recording any wins.

Here are some of the top Qipco 2000 Guineas trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
A P O'Brien 50-9-12 +2.88 -14.86
J S Bolger 7-2-4 +12.38 +7.32
Richard Hannon 13-1-4 +28.00 +13.85
Andrew Balding 6-1-1 +5.00 +1.00
Hugo Palmer 3-1-1 +12.00 +6.40
D K Weld 2-1-1 +3.50 +1.25
Saeed bin Suroor 19-0-1 -19.00 -17.70
Sir Michael Stoute 9-0-0 -9.00 -9.00
Charlie Appleby 8-0-3 -8.00 -5.57
Mark Johnston 8-0-0 -8.00 -8.00

Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes Jockey Statistics

There are two leading jockeys in the Qipco 2000 Guineas over the last 20 renewals with both Ryan Moore & Kevin Manning who have both won the race 2 times. Ryan Moore winners have been with Gleneagles (2015) & Churchill (2017). Kevin Manning winners have been with Dawn Approach (2013) & Poetic Flare (2021). There are two jockeys who have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Qipco 2000 Guineas, Jamie Spencer has had a total of 11 rides to the race without recording any wins whilst William Buick has had 11 rides without a winner.

Here are some of the top Qipco 2000 Guineas jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Ryan Moore 12-2-3 -4.50 -6.60
Kevin Manning 6-2-4 +13.38 +8.32
Frankie Dettori 18-1-3 -3.00 -6.05
Tom Queally 4-1-1 -2.50 -2.70
Oisin Murphy 3-1-1 +8.00 +4.00
Jamie Spencer 11-0-4 -11.00 +9.60
William Buick 11-0-5 -11.00 -2.27
James Doyle 9-0-3 -9.00 -7.00
Jim Crowley 8-0-0 -8.00 -8.00
Paul Hanagan 6-0-1 -6.00 -4.60

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,2,17,13,5,1,12,2,2,6,1,1,1,2,1,12,1,3,5,3,13

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (66%) - No bigger than 40/1
  • 20 / 20 (69%) - Within first 11 of market
  • 20 / 20 (74%) - No bigger than 7/1 LTO
  • 20 / 20 (76%) - First three LTO
  • 20 / 20 (79%) - No bigger than 10/1 (Debut)
  • 20 / 20 (79%) - 1-6 Starts (1 Year)
  • 20 / 20 (82%) - Beaten no more 3¼l (Debut)
  • 20 / 20 (83%) - Furthest won of 7f - 1m
  • 20 / 20 (84%) - Not ridden by jockey just once
  • 20 / 20 (84%) - Won with last 3 starts
  • 20 / 20 (84%) - Furthest ran of 7f - 8f
  • 20 / 20 (85%) - Previously ran in a Group race
  • 20 / 20 (88%) - 2+ career placings
  • 20 / 20 (90%) - Wearing no headgear or TT
  • 19 / 20 (60%) - Never off bigger than 14/1
  • 19 / 20 (76%) - 1-6 Starts (Career)
  • 19 / 20 (86%) - Carried 126-131lbs (Debut)
  • 18 / 20 (52%) - Won at least a Group 3
  • 18 / 20 (67%) - Ran in a Group race LTO

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Newmarket racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Qipco 2000 Guineas. If you are looking to place on a bet this race well in advance of the actual running, then there may be an ante-post market available for you to place your bet. If you are unfamiliar with this type of betting then head over to the OLBG Betting School and have a read of our Ante-Post Horse Racing article which explains how ante-post betting works.

Are you a member on OLBG? If not, then why not! With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then why share your thoughts on the Qipco 2000 Guineas by adding a tip on the race here.

Qipco 2000 Guineas Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +32.88 is when runners had 0 career starts at the track.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2021: Winner in 4 (2,3) [14 Runners]
  • 2020: Winner in 15 (9,7) [15 Runners]
  • 2019: Winner in 17 (19,3) [19 Runners]
  • 2018: Winner in 9 (10,14) [14 Runners]
  • 2017: Winner in 3 (5,7) [10 Runners]

The course which has produced the most winners of the Qipco 2000 Guineas is Newmarket (Rowley), there has been a total number of 4 winners of this race who ran at Newmarket (Rowley) last time out. The next best courses which have produced the second most winners are Leopardstown, Doncaster and Curragh, there has been a total number of 3 winners from each of those courses.

Looking over the past renewals, These are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Qipco 2000 Guineas:

  • Galileo (3 Wins)
  • Danehill (2 Wins)
  • Dubawi (2 Wins)

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Qipco 2000 Guineas despite multiple attempts:

  • Oasis Dream (0 Wins from 7 runners)
  • War Front (0 Wins from 7 runners)
  • Danehill Dancer (0 Wins from 5 runners)
  • Dutch Art (0 Wins from 5 runners)
  • Johannesburg (0 Wins from 5 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest priced winner was Night Of Thunder in 2014 when winning for Richard Hannon at odds of 40/1 under the guidance of Kieren Fallon. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 6 winning favourites in the race. Ahead of the 2022 Qipco 2000 Guineas why not head over to the best racing tipster page to see what the tipsters are backing today.

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