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2021 Rockfel Stakes Preview, Trends & Analysis

Published: Sep 22, 10:45am Last Updated: Sep 27, 1:29pm Horse Racing 0 Comments 314 Views

2021 Rockfel Stakes Preview

Scheduled to take place in either late September or early October of each year at the Newmarket racecourse, the Rockfel Stakes is a Group 2 race which is open to two-year-old fillies only and run over a straight seven-furlong trip where a 3lb penalty is carried by previous Group 1 or Group 2 winners. The race is currently featured on the second day of the Cambridgeshire meeting, some leading contenders will go on to run in the 1,000 Guineas the following season, Finsceal Bao (06-07) was the fourth and last filly to win both races.

The runner which holds the record over past 20 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2004 renewal when Maids Causeway from B W Hills who under the guidance of the Michael Hills, won in a time of 1:28.93, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Isabella Giles, trained by Clive Cox and ridden by Adam Kirby set the quickest time of 1:22.55 in the 2020 renewal.

These are the top three quickest run Rockfel Stakes over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2020 - Isabella Giles (1:22.55)
  • 2014 - Lucida (1:22.82)
  • 2015 - Promising Run (1:23.55)

How competitive is the Rockfel Stakes market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2004 when the race had an over-round of 109%. The race in 2016 was a race which was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 124%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Rockfel Stakes, the over-round has been 117% which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £117 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Rockfel Stakes next time out then you would have back a total of 5 winners. Backing all 18 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of +10.15. Before placing your bet on the 2021 Rockfel Stakes see which other runners today are being back on the racing predictions page.

Rockfel Stakes Past Ten Winners

Here are the past 10 winners of the Rockfel Stakes. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall which the horse came from and also the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Rockfel Stakes as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse (Drawn) Info
2020
1:22.55
Isabella Giles
2yo 9-0 (2 of 5) 11/5
Adam Kirby
Clive Cox
2019
1:24.14
Daahyeh
2yo 9-0 (7 of 8) 11/8F
William Buick
Roger Varian
2018
1:25.30
Just Wonderful
2yo 9-0 (1 of 9) 7/2
Ryan Moore
A P O'Brien
2017
1:27.23
Juliet Capulet
2yo 9-0 (6 of 10) 9/1
Frankie Dettori
John Gosden
2016
1:24.92
Spain Burg
2yo 9-0 (8 of 8) 14/1
Frankie Dettori
X Thomas-Demeaulte
2015
1:23.55
Promising Run
2yo 9-0 (7 of 7) 5/1
James Doyle
Saeed bin Suroor
2014
1:22.82
Lucida
2yo 9-0 (5 of 9) 1/1F
Kevin Manning
J S Bolger
2013
1:25.54
Al Thakhira
2yo 8-12 (8 of 8) 5/1
Martin Harley
Marco Botti
2012
1:25.15
Just The Judge
2yo 8-12 (3 of 11) 6/1
Michael Hills
Charles Hills
2011
1:23.75
Wading
2yo 8-12 (5 of 9) 11/4
Ryan Moore
A P O'Brien

Rockfel Stakes Trainer Statistics

There are two leading trainers in the Rockfel Stakes over the last 20 renewals with both A P O'Brien & Mick Channon who have both won the race 3 times. A P O'Brien winners have been with Kitty Matcham (2007), Wading (2011) & Just Wonderful (2018). Mick Channon winners have been with Cairns (2003), Lahaleeb (2008) & Music Show (2009). The only other trainer to have recorded multiple wins in the Rockfel Stakes is J S Bolger (2 wins).

Here are some of the top Rockfel Stakes trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
A P O'Brien 12-3-5 +7.25 +3.50
Mick Channon 6-3-4 +45.00 +26.70
J S Bolger 9-2-4 -3.75 -1.65
Sir Michael Stoute 9-1-3 -4.50 -3.95
Roger Varian 5-1-3 -2.62 +0.48
Roger Charlton 4-1-3 +3.50 +2.44
Charles Hills 4-1-2 +3.00 +3.10
Saeed bin Suroor 4-1-1 +2.00 +0.13
John Gosden 3-1-1 +7.00 +3.40
Clive Cox 2-1-1 +1.20 +0.38

Rockfel Stakes Jockey Statistics

The leading jockey in the Rockfel Stakes over the last 20 renewals is Ryan Moore who has won the race 3 times. Those 3 winners came from Cape Dollar (2010), Wading (2011) & Just Wonderful (2018). Other jockeys who have recorded multiple wins in the Rockfel Stakes are Frankie Dettori (2 wins) & Kevin Manning (2 wins).

Here are some of the top Rockfel Stakes jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Ryan Moore 14-3-4 -1.25 -3.77
Frankie Dettori 14-2-6 +11.00 +6.34
Kevin Manning 9-2-4 -3.75 -1.65
William Buick 6-1-1 -3.62 -4.17
James Doyle 4-1-2 +2.00 +0.83
Dane O'Neill 3-1-2 +6.00 +4.50
Martin Harley 2-1-1 +4.00 +2.00
Adam Kirby 2-1-1 +1.20 +0.38
Jamie Spencer 8-0-1 -8.00 -6.80
Andrea Atzeni 5-0-2 -5.00 -2.35

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,5,5,2,1,7,1,7,10,3,3,2,8,4,1,3,2,2,3,1,4

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (81%) - No bigger than 25/1
  • 20 / 20 (82%) - Not at Rowley Mile (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (93%) - Debut not on the AW
  • 19 / 20 (68%) - Highest class won not Cl2-5-6
  • 19 / 20 (72%) - Within first 7 of the market
  • 19 / 20 (76%) - Never won off 11/1+
  • 19 / 20 (82%) - Fewer than 15 runners (LTO)
  • 18 / 20 (72%) - Finished first 3 (LTO)
  • 18 / 20 (82%) - 1-2 Career wins
  • 18 / 20 (83%) - Debut was over 6f+
  • 17 / 20 (77%) - Beaten no more than 4l (Debut)

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Newmarket racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Rockfel Stakes. You may want to do your own research into the race, there are times when there are a number of runners who pass the trends so you need to do your own research to find a bet, we have a Horse Racing Form Reading Made Easy & What to Look For article to help you do just this in the OLBG Betting School section.

Are you a member on OLBG? If not, then why not! With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then why share your thoughts on the Rockfel Stakes by adding a tip on the race here.

Rockfel Stakes Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +61.00 is when runners had 0 career starts with the jockey. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners ran at Newmarket (Rowley) last time out, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-36.

The course which has produced the most winners of the Rockfel Stakes is Curragh, there has been a total number of 4 winners of this race who ran at Curragh last time out.

Theses are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Rockfel Stakes despite multiple attempts:

  • Invincible Spirit (0 Wins from 6 runners)
  • Royal Applause (0 Wins from 5 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest priced winner was Music Show in 2009 when winning for Mick Channon at odds of 25/1 under the guidance of Kieren Fallon. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 4 winning favourites in the race. Ahead of the 2021 Rockfel Stakes why not head over to the best racing tipster page to see what the tipsters are backing today.

Other Principal races at Newmarket racecourse

Here are some other notable races at Newmarket racecourse for throughout the racing season which you may be interested in.

Races in April

Races in May

Races in July

Races in September

Races in October

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