2021 Joel Stakes Preview, Trends & Analysis

Published: Sep 22, 10:42am Last Updated: Sep 27, 1:24pm Horse Racing 0 Comments 284 Views

2021 Joel Stakes Preview

Run, on the second day of the Cambridgeshire meeting in September of each year at the Newmarket racecourse, the Joel Stakes is a Group 2 race which is open to runners who are aged three or older. The race is run over a straight one mile where three-year-old runners receive a 4lb allowance from their older opponents (9-0 vs 9-4) and any fillies and mares receive a 3lb sex allowance too whilst andy previous Group 1 winners have to carry a 5lbs penalty and Group 2 winner a 3lb penalty.

The runner which holds the record over past 20 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2006 renewal when Satchem from Saeed bin Suroor who under the guidance of the Kerrin McEvoy, won in a time of 1:39.95, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Eagle Mountain, trained by M F De Kock and ridden by K Shea set the quickest time of 1:34.07 in the 2008 renewal.

These are the top three quickest run Joel Stakes over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2008 - Eagle Mountain (1:34.07)
  • 2020 - Kameko (1:34.41)
  • 2002 - Desert Deer (1:34.54)

How competitive is the Joel Stakes market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2015 when the race had an over-round of 108%. The race in 2008 was a race which was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 122%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Joel Stakes, the over-round has been 113% which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £113 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Joel Stakes next time out then you would have back a total of 0 winners. Backing all 18 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -18.00. Ahead of the 2021 Joel Stakes why not head over to the racing predictions for tips on other races today.

Joel Stakes Past Ten Winners

Here are the past 10 winners of the Joel Stakes. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall which the horse came from and also the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Joel Stakes as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse (Drawn) Info
3yo 9-5 (5 of 6) 85/40
Oisin Murphy
Andrew Balding
5yo 9-4 (3 of 6) 4/1
Oisin Murphy
Saeed bin Suroor
5yo 9-7 (2 of 5) 15/8F
Jim Crowley
Sir Michael Stoute
Beat The Bank
3yo 9-0 (6 of 8) 11/8F
Oisin Murphy
Andrew Balding
Cougar Mountain
5yo 9-4 (6 of 6) 15/2
Ryan Moore
A P O'Brien
Time Test
3yo 9-0 (2 of 4) 10/11F
Ryan Moore
Roger Charlton
Custom Cut
5yo 9-4 (11 of 12) 15/2
Daniel Tudhope
David OMeara
Soft Falling Rain
4yo 9-3 (5 of 7) 13/8F
Paul Hanagan
M F De Kock
6yo 9-3 (4 of 10) 10/1
Daniel Tudhope
David OMeara
Ransom Note
4yo 9-3 (1 of 7) 4/1
Michael Hills
Charles Hills

Joel Stakes Trainer Statistics

There are two leading trainers in the Joel Stakes over the last 20 renewals with both Saeed bin Suroor & Sir Michael Stoute who have both won the race 3 times. Saeed bin Suroor winners have been with Satchem (2006), Creachadoir (2007) & Benbatl (2019). Sir Michael Stoute winners have been with Rob Roy (2005), Confront (2009) & Mustashry (2018). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Joel Stakes are David OMeara (2 wins), Andrew Balding (2 wins), A P O'Brien (2 wins) & Roger Charlton (2 wins).

Here are some of the top Joel Stakes trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
Saeed bin Suroor 17-3-7 -3.92 -4.13
Sir Michael Stoute 15-3-5 +0.13 -1.06
David OMeara 7-2-2 +12.50 +6.50
Andrew Balding 6-2-3 -0.49 -0.74
A P O'Brien 5-2-3 +7.50 +4.29
Roger Charlton 4-2-3 +2.91 +1.20
James Fanshawe 5-1-3 +12.00 +7.50
Charles Hills 4-1-2 +1.00 +2.00
Mark Johnston 3-1-2 -0.12 +0.23
John Gosden 6-0-1 -6.00 -5.35

Joel Stakes Jockey Statistics

There are two leading jockeys in the Joel Stakes over the last 20 renewals with both Ryan Moore & Oisin Murphy who have both won the race 3 times. Ryan Moore winners have been with Confront (2009), Time Test (2015) & Cougar Mountain (2016). Oisin Murphy winners have been with Beat The Bank (2017), Benbatl (2019) & Kameko (2020). The only other jockey to have recorded multiple wins in the Joel Stakes is Daniel Tudhope (2 wins). There is one jockey who has not had the best of times in the Joel Stakes, Frankie Dettori has sent a total of 13 runners to the race without recording any wins.

Here are some of the top Joel Stakes jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Ryan Moore 14-3-8 -0.84 +0.70
Oisin Murphy 3-3-3 +7.51 +4.66
Daniel Tudhope 6-2-2 +13.50 +7.50
Paul Hanagan 3-1-1 -0.37 -0.98
Jim Crowley 2-1-1 +0.88 +0.18
Frankie Dettori 13-0-5 -13.00 -7.58
Jamie Spencer 9-0-3 -9.00 -3.65
William Buick 4-0-1 -4.00 -2.75
Andrea Atzeni 4-0-0 -4.00 -3.00
James Doyle 4-0-1 -4.00 -3.20

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,1,1,2,11,4,5,(4,1),2,1,2,4,7,1,2,1,3,1,1,2,3

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (79%) - Fewer than 4 starts in class
  • 20 / 20 (83%) - Ran in a field of 5-13 (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (87%) - Never off bigger than 50/1
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - No bigger than 25/1
  • 20 / 20 (90%) - Had contested a Group race
  • 19 / 20 (68%) - Had placed in a Group race
  • 19 / 20 (76%) - No bigger than 10/1 (LTO)
  • 19 / 20 (78%) - 2+ Non-Handicap wins
  • 19 / 20 (78%) - Finished first six (LTO)
  • 19 / 20 (88%) - 2+ Career wins

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Newmarket racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Joel Stakes. If you are looking to place on a bet this race well in advance of the actual running, then there may be an ante-post market available for you to place your bet. If you are unfamiliar with this type of betting then head over to the OLBG Betting School and have a read of our Ante Post Horse Racing article which explains how ante-post betting works.

Are you a member on OLBG? If not, then why not! With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then why share your thoughts on the Joel Stakes by adding a tip on the race here.

Joel Stakes Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +7.00 is when runners had a different jockey to when last winning. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had a highest class placed of Class 1 (Listed), when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-27.

The course which has produced the most winners of the Joel Stakes is Doncaster, there has been a total number of 5 winners of this race who ran at Doncaster last time out. The next best courses which have produced the second most winners are York and Newbury, there has been a total number of 3 winners from each of those courses.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 20 winners from a total of 156 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 12 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Joel Stakes, that stallion is Dubawi who has produced 2 winners (2019,2015).

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest priced winner was Splendid Era in 2003 when winning for B W Hills at odds of 25/1 under the guidance of Michael Hills. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 8 winning favourites in the race. Remember to use the best racing tipsters along with the information on this page to find you a bet on the 2021 Joel Stakes.

Other Principal races at Newmarket racecourse

Here are some other notable races at Newmarket racecourse for throughout the racing season which you may be interested in.

Races in April

Races in May

Races in July

Races in September

Races in October


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