You know how punters get lost in too much data or bet blindly? I break down the stats and trends so you can feel confident you’re betting with more than just gut instinct.
2025 Joel Stakes Preview
Run on the second day of the Cambridgeshire meeting in September of each year at the Newmarket racecourse, the Joel Stakes is a Group 2 race open to runners aged three or older.
The race is run over a straight one mile where three-year-old runners receive a 4lb allowance from their older opponents (9-0 vs 9-4) and any fillies and mares receive a 3lb sex allowance too whilst any previous Group 1 winner has to carry a 5lbs penalty and Group 2 winner a 3lb penalty.
Joel Stakes Information:
Our dedicated Newmarket tips page will not only bring you predictions from the OLBG racing tipsters for the upcoming card that includes the Joel Stakes but will also have predictions for each meeting at Newmarket throughout the season so be sure to head over there. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Other Principal races during the Cambridgeshire Meeting section for links to these.
How competitive is the Joel Stakes market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2015 when the race had an over-round of 108%. The race in 2008 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 122%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Joel Stakes, the over-round has been 113%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £113 which is bet.
Joel Stakes Trends:
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Joel Stakes next time out then you would have backed a total of 1 winner. Backing all 18 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -13.00. Whilst we wait for the 2025 Joel Stakes remember you can get daily racing predictions from the expert tipsters on the racing predictions page.
The runner that holds the record over the past 20 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2024 renewal when Prague from Dylan Cunha under the guidance of Daniel Tudhope, won in a time of 1:40.53, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Eagle Mountain, trained by M F De Kock and ridden by K Shea set the quickest time of 1:34.07 in the 2008 renewal.
These are the top three quickest-run Joel Stakes over the last 20 renewals:
- Eagle Mountain (1:34.07) in 2008
- Kameko (1:34.41) in 2020
- Benbatl (1:34.56) in 2021
Joel Stakes Past Winners
Here are the Joel Stakes' past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and the total number of runners in the race. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the Joel Stakes are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 1:40.53 | Prague (IRE) 4yo 9-6 (1 of 4) 100/30 | Daniel Tudhope Dylan Cunha (GB) |
| 2023 1:34.71 | Mutasaabeq (GB) 5yo 9-9 (2 of 6) 11/4F | Jim Crowley Charles Hills (GB) |
| 2022 1:38.43 | Mutasaabeq (GB) 4yo 9-6 (2 of 6) 5/2 | Jim Crowley Charles Hills (GB) |
| 2021 1:34.56 | Benbatl (GB) 7yo 9-4 (3 of 7) 13/8 | Oisin Murphy Saeed bin Suroor (GB) |
| 2020 1:34.41 | Kameko (USA) 3yo 9-5 (5 of 6) 85/40 | Oisin Murphy Andrew Balding (GB) |
| 2019 1:35.60 | Benbatl (GB) 5yo 9-4 (3 of 6) 4/1 | Oisin Murphy Saeed bin Suroor (GB) |
| 2018 1:36.89 | Mustashry (GB) 5yo 9-7 (2 of 5) 15/8F | Jim Crowley Sir Michael Stoute (GB) |
| 2017 1:38.67 | Beat The Bank (GB) 3yo 9-0 (6 of 8) 11/8F | Oisin Murphy Andrew Balding (GB) |
| 2016 1:36.85 | Cougar Mountain (IRE) 5yo 9-4 (6 of 6) 15/2 | Ryan Moore A P O'Brien (IRE) |
| 2015 1:35.84 | Time Test (GB) 3yo 9-0 (2 of 4) 10/11F | Ryan Moore Roger Charlton (GB) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Joel Stakes have been based:
- GB: 17 winners with an additional 26 placings from 146 runners
- SAF: 2 winners with an additional 0 placings from 3 runners
- IRE: 1 winner with an additional 1 placing from 5 runners
- QA: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
Joel Stakes Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the Joel Stakes over the last 20 renewals is Saeed bin Suroor who has won the race four times with those four winners coming from Satchem (2006), Creachadoir (2007) and Benbatl (2019 & 2021). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Joel Stakes are Sir Michael Stoute (3 wins), Charles Hills (3 wins), David O'Meara (2 wins), Andrew Balding (2 wins) and Roger Charlton (2 wins).
Here are some of the top Joel Stakes trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saeed bin Suroor | 16-4-7 | -0.29 | -1.88 |
| Sir Michael Stoute | 15-3-6 | +0.13 | +0.44 |
| Charles Hills | 7-3-5 | +5.25 | +6.53 |
| David O'Meara | 7-2-2 | +12.50 | +6.50 |
| Andrew Balding | 6-2-3 | -0.49 | -0.74 |
| Roger Charlton | 3-2-3 | +3.91 | +2.20 |
| A P O'Brien | 3-1-2 | +5.50 | +3.49 |
| Dylan Cunha | 1-1-1 | +3.33 | +0.00 |
| Roger Varian | 6-0-2 | -6.00 | -2.58 |
| Richard Hannon | 6-0-0 | -6.00 | -5.00 |
Joel Stakes Jockey Statistics
The leading jockey in the Joel Stakes over the last 20 renewals is Oisin Murphy who has won the race four times with those four winners coming from Beat The Bank (2017), Benbatl (2019 & 2021) and Kameko (2020). Other jockeys who have recorded multiple wins in the Joel Stakes are Ryan Moore (3 wins), Daniel Tudhope (3 wins), Jim Crowley (3 wins) and Kerrin McEvoy (2 wins). There is one jockey who has not had the best of times in the Joel Stakes, Frankie Dettori has ridden 10 runners to the race without recording any wins.
Here are some of the top Joel Stakes jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oisin Murphy | 5-4-4 | +8.14 | +4.68 |
| Ryan Moore | 17-3-8 | -3.84 | -0.40 |
| Daniel Tudhope | 7-3-3 | +16.83 | +7.50 |
| Jim Crowley | 5-3-3 | +5.13 | +2.46 |
| Kerrin McEvoy | 3-2-2 | +5.08 | +2.65 |
| Frankie Dettori | 10-0-3 | -10.00 | -7.40 |
| Jamie Spencer | 6-0-3 | -6.00 | -0.65 |
| Andrea Atzeni | 6-0-1 | -6.00 | -3.50 |
| William Buick | 6-0-1 | -6.00 | -4.75 |
| James Doyle | 5-0-1 | -5.00 | -3.20 |
2025 Joel Stakes Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 4, 5, (4, 1), 2, 1, 2, 4, 7, 1, 2, 1, 3, 1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 3, 1, (2, 3)
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.
- 20 / 20 (64%) - No bigger than 10/1
- 20 / 20 (75%) - Achieved an RPR of 112+ (Career)
- 20 / 20 (77%) - Highest Placed is not LST/Cl2-5
- 20 / 20 (83%) - Held an OR of 106+ (Last 3)
- 20 / 20 (83%) - No bigger than 12/1 (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (83%) - Achieved a TS of 90+ (Non-Hcps)
- 20 / 20 (83%) - Within the first 7 of the market
- 20 / 20 (85%) - In a field of 5 - 13 (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (86%) - No bigger than 50/1 (Career)
- 20 / 20 (87%) - Ran in 4 - 27 races (Non-Hcps)
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Fewer than 13 races (Trip)
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Carried 123 - 135lbs (LTO)
- 18 / 20 (66%) - No bigger than 16/1 (Career Place)
- 18 / 20 (78%) - No more than -4lbs (Vs Max Weight)
- 18 / 20 (85%) - No more than +2yrs (Vs Min Age)
Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Newmarket racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Joel Stakes. If there is anything that you do not understand in this blog, please leave a comment or head over to the Horse Racing Terms and Abbreviations article which is available in the OLBG Betting School section.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Joel Stakes by adding a tip on the race here.
Joel Stakes Trend Analysis
The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners ran in a Handicap when last winning, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-20.
Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2024: Winner in 1 [4 Runners]
- 2023: Winner in 2 (3) [6 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 2 (3) [6 Runners]
- 2021: Winner in 3 (6) [7 Runners]
- 2020: Winner in 5 (3) [6 Runners]
The courses that have produced the most winners of the Joel Stakes are York and Doncaster, there has been a total number of 4 winners from each of those courses.
The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 20 winners from a total of 145 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 10 runners.
Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Joel Stakes:
- Dubawi (3 Wins)
- Invincible Spirit (2 Wins)
Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have been disappointed with multiple attempts but no wins in the Joel Stakes, that stallion is Dark Angel who has failed to produce a winner from 5 runners.
Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Penitent in 2012, winning for David O'Meara at odds of 10/1 under the guidance of Daniel Tudhope. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there have been 7 winning favourites in the race. Remember to use the best racing tipsters along with the information on this page to find you a bet on the 2025 Joel Stakes.
Other Principal races during the Cambridgeshire Meeting
Remember to head to the Newmarket predictions page to see which runner the racing tipsters support in the Joel Stakes. Below are the other principal races that we cover during the Cambridgeshire Meeting with links to each race blog as well as information for last year's winners.
Thursday at the Cambridgeshire Meeting
The highlight on the opening day of the three-day Cambridgeshire meeting is the Group 3 Tattersalls Stakes, a seven-furlong race for two-year-old runners.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| Tattersall Stakes | The Waco Kid (IRE) 2yo - 13/2 | Hugo Palmer Oisin Murphy |
| Jockey Club Rose Bowl | Al Nayyir (GB) 6yo - 11/8 | Tom Clover Luke Morris |
Friday at the Cambridgeshire Meeting
Day two of the Cambridgeshire is a step up from the opening day with five class one races, the highlight being the £125k Group 2 Joel Stakes contested over a mile, we also have the two-year-old race, the Rockfel Stakes which carries a purse of £100k.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| Rosemary Stakes | Sirona (GER) 4yo - 6/4 | David Menuisier Ryan Moore |
| Princess Royal Stakes | Time Lock (GB) 5yo - 13/8 | Harry Charlton Ryan Moore |
| Rockfel Stakes | Bubbling (IRE) 2yo - 11/8 | A P O'Brien Ryan Moore |
| Joel Stakes | Prague (IRE) 4yo - 100/30 | Dylan Cunha Daniel Tudhope |
| Godolphin Stakes | Burdett Road (GB) 4yo - 10/1 | James Owen Harry Davies |
Saturday at the Cambridgeshire Meeting
The Cambridgeshire Handicap is the highlight on the third and final day, carrying a purse of £175k its a race which spans two counties! It starts in Cambridgeshire and ends in Suffolk! There are also a couple of valuable Group 1's on the final day with the Cheverley Park Stakes and the Middle Park Stakes which both carry a purse of £275k.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| Royal Lodge Stakes | Wimbledon Hawkeye (GB) 2yo - 4/1 | James Owen James Doyle |
| Cheveley Park Stakes | Lake Victoria (IRE) 2yo - 6/4 | A P O'Brien Ryan Moore |
| Middle Park Stakes | Shadow Of Light (GB) 2yo - 11/4 | Charlie Appleby William Buick |
| Cambridgeshire Handicap | Liberty Lane (IRE) 4yo - 8/1 | K R Burke Clifford Lee |
| Jersey Lily Fillies Nursery | Naina (GB) 2yo - 6/1 | John Ryan Christian Howarth |
| Cambridgeshire Meeting 7f Handicap | Spanish Blaze (IRE) 3yo - 13/2 | Marcus Tregoning Trevor Whelan |
Article Contributor Information
We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this Joel Stakes Preview are at hand, Andy and Darren. They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for Flat Racing.
Darren Brett
Expert Guide
Andy Powell
Expert Guide
Other Principal Races at Newmarket Racecourse
Here are some other notable races at the Newmarket racecourse throughout the racing season that you may be interested in.
Races in April (Craven Meeting)
Races in May (Guineas Festival)
- Jockey Club Stakes
- King Charles II Stakes
- Newmarket Stakes
- Palace House Stakes
- Qipco 2000 Guineas
- Rowley Handicap Stakes
- Suffolk Stakes
- Dahlia Stakes
- Pretty Polly Stakes
- Qipco 1000 Guineas
Races in July (July Festival)
- Bahrain Trophy Stakes
- bet365 Sprint Handicap
- July Stakes
- Princess of Wales's Stakes
- bet365 Handicap
- Duchess of Cambridge Stakes
- Falmouth Stakes
- bet365 Mile Handicap
- Bunbury Cup
- July Cup
- Superlative Stakes
