2021 Middle Park Stakes Preview, Trends & Analysis

Published: Sep 22, 10:43am Last Updated: Sep 27, 1:26pm Horse Racing 0 Comments 313 Views

2021 Middle Park Stakes Preview

Established in 1866, the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes is scheduled to take place in late September or early October of each year at the Newmarket racecourse, the race takes place on the final day of the Cambridgeshire meeting, the race prior to the big race itself. The race is open to two-year-old colts and is run over a straight six furlongs where all runners carry the same weight of 9-0. Use your notebook to any smart performers in the race for future reference for the following years 2,000 Guineas as some leading contenders from this race have gone on to perform in the Guineas.

Over the last 20 renewals, it was the A Fabre trained Earthlight ridden by Mickael Barzalona who has set the fastest winning time in the Middle Park Stakes, the runner won the race in a time of 1:09.31 which was set when winning the race in 2019. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer David Simcock and jockey William Buick with Dream Ahead who set the slowest winning time, the race-winning time was 1:14.28 in the 2010 renewal.

These are the top three quickest run Middle Park Stakes over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2019 - Earthlight (1:09.31)
  • 2008 - Bushranger (1:09.56)
  • 2002 - Oasis Dream (1:09.61)

How competitive is the Middle Park Stakes market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2019 when the race had an over-round of 92%. The race in 2018 was a race which was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 124%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Middle Park Stakes, the over-round has been 114% which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £114 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Middle Park Stakes next time out then you would have back a total of 4 winners. Backing all 18 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -0.65. Whilst we wait for the 2021 Middle Park Stakes remember you can get daily racing predictions from the expert tipsters on the racing predictions page.

Middle Park Stakes Past Ten Winners

Here are the past 10 winners of the Middle Park Stakes. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall which the horse came from and also the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Middle Park Stakes as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse (Drawn) Info
2020
1:09.73
Supremacy
2yo 9-0 (3 of 8) 13/2
Adam Kirby
Clive Cox
2019
1:09.31
Earthlight
2yo 9-0 (4 of 8) 11/4F
Mickael Barzalona
A Fabre
2018
1:10.04
Ten Sovereigns
2yo 9-0 (4 of 8) 8/13F
Donnacha O'Brien
A P O'Brien
2017
1:12.44
U S Navy Flag
2yo 9-0 (11 of 12) 10/1
Seamie Heffernan
A P O'Brien
2016
1:12.13
The Last Lion
2yo 9-0 (2 of 10) 25/1
Joe Fanning
Mark Johnston
2015
1:11.92
Shalaa
2yo 9-0 (6 of 7) 1/2F
Frankie Dettori
John Gosden
2014
1:13.01
Charming Thought
2yo 9-0 (2 of 6) 22/1
William Buick
Charlie Appleby
2013
1:12.33
Astaire
2yo 9-0 (13 of 10) 8/1
Neil Callan
Kevin Ryan
2012
1:11.06
Reckless Abandon
2yo 8-12 (2 of 10) 9/4F
Gerald Mosse
Clive Cox
2011
1:10.75
Crusade
2yo 8-12 (8 of 16) 25/1
Seamie Heffernan
A P O'Brien

Middle Park Stakes Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the Middle Park Stakes over the last 20 renewals is A P O'Brien who has won the race 5 times. Those 5 winners came from Johannesburg (2001), Ad Valorem (2004), Crusade (2011), U S Navy Flag (2017) & Ten Sovereigns (2018). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Middle Park Stakes are Kevin Ryan (2 wins), Mark Johnston (2 wins), John Gosden (2 wins) & Clive Cox (2 wins).

Here are some of the top Middle Park Stakes trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
A P O'Brien 35-5-9 +10.42 +0.06
Kevin Ryan 10-2-4 +4.00 +2.05
Mark Johnston 7-2-4 +24.00 +15.71
John Gosden 7-2-4 +1.50 +0.58
Clive Cox 3-2-3 +7.75 +6.35
Peter Chapple-Hyam 5-1-2 -2.80 -2.25
Charlie Appleby 4-1-2 +19.00 +11.36
A Fabre 1-1-1 +2.75 +1.65
David Simcock 1-1-1 +1.25 +0.75
Richard Hannon 6-0-2 -6.00 -4.34

Middle Park Stakes Jockey Statistics

There are multiple leading jockeys in the Middle Park Stakes over the last 20 renewals with all of Frankie Dettori, William Buick & Seamie Heffernan having all won the race 2 times. Frankie Dettori winners have been with Dutch Art (2006) & Shalaa (2015). William Buick winners have been with Dream Ahead (2010) & Charming Thought (2014). Seamie Heffernan winners have been with Crusade (2011) & U S Navy Flag (2017). There is one jockey who has not had the best of times in the Middle Park Stakes, Ryan Moore has sent a total of 10 runners to the race without recording any wins.

Here are some of the top Middle Park Stakes jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Frankie Dettori 14-2-4 -10.30 -8.89
William Buick 7-2-5 +18.25 +14.12
Seamie Heffernan 6-2-2 +31.00 +14.50
Jamie Spencer 9-1-3 -3.50 -3.30
Joe Fanning 3-1-1 +23.00 +13.00
Adam Kirby 3-1-3 +4.50 +4.72
Mickael Barzalona 1-1-1 +2.75 +1.65
Gerald Mosse 1-1-1 +2.25 +1.35
Ryan Moore 10-0-2 -10.00 -8.10
Jim Crowley 4-0-2 -4.00 -2.25

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,1,3,DSQ,3,4,1,8,1,4,1,(5,10),(1,2),8,2,1,2,5,1,1,2

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (68%) - Won within last 2 starts
  • 20 / 20 (80%) - Previously won over 6f+
  • 20 / 20 (82%) - No bigger than 25/1
  • 20 / 20 (83%) - No bigger than 8/1 (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (85%) - Not in a Class 2-3 (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - Field of under 15 (LTO)
  • 18 / 20 (44%) - Ideally won (LTO)
  • 18 / 20 (60%) - Ideally won with jockey
  • 18 / 20 (69%) - Ran over 6f (LTO)
  • 18 / 20 (70%) - No bigger than 6/1 (Debut)

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Newmarket racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Middle Park Stakes. You may want to do your own research into the race, there are times when there are a number of runners who pass the trends so you need to do your own research to find a bet, we have a Horse Racing Form Reading Made Easy & What to Look For article to help you do just this in the OLBG Betting School section.

Are you a member on OLBG? If not, then why not! With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then why share your thoughts on the Middle Park Stakes by adding a tip on the race here.

Middle Park Stakes Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +53.00 is when runners had 2 wins in the past 90 days. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 0 wins in the past 90 days, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-46.

The course which has produced the most winners of the Middle Park Stakes is Deauville, there has been a total number of 7 winners of this race who ran at Deauville last time out. The next best courses which have produced the second most winners are Curragh and York, there has been a total number of 3 winners from each of those courses.

Theses are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Middle Park Stakes despite multiple attempts:

  • Royal Applause (0 Wins from 6 runners)
  • Dark Angel (0 Wins from 5 runners)
  • Exceed And Excel (0 Wins from 5 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest priced winner was Crusade in 2011 when winning for A P O'Brien at odds of 25/1 under the guidance of Seamie Heffernan. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 8 winning favourites in the race. Remember to use the best racing tipsters along with the information on this page to find you a bet on the 2021 Middle Park Stakes.

Other Principal races at Newmarket racecourse

Here are some other notable races at Newmarket racecourse for throughout the racing season which you may be interested in.

Races in April

Races in May

Races in July

Races in September

Races in October

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