You know how punters get lost in too much data or bet blindly? I break down the stats and trends so you can feel confident youâre betting with more than just gut instinct.
2025 Middle Park Stakes Preview
Established in 1866, the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes is scheduled to take place in late September or early October of each year at the Newmarket racecourse. The race takes place on the final day of the Cambridgeshire meeting, the race before the big race itself. The race is open to two-year-old colts and is run over a straight six furlongs, where all runners carry the same weight of 9-0.
Use your notebook to note any smart performers in the race for future reference for the following years' 2,000 Guineas, as some leading contenders from this race have gone on to perform in the Guineas.
Middle Park Stakes Information:
- Middle Park Stakes Past Winners
- Middle Park Stakes Trainer Statistics
- Middle Park Stakes Jockey Statistics
If you are interested in other predictions at Newmarket, then head over to the Newmarket tips page to see which runners are being supported by the OLBG racing tipsters and also compare those predictions to the runners that make the trend shortlist when added below. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information. Head down to the Other Principal races during the Cambridgeshire Meeting section for links to these.
Best Horse Racing Betting Sites 2025
How competitive is the Middle Park Stakes market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2006 when the race had an over-round of 108%. The race in 2018 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 124%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Middle Park Stakes, the over-round has been 115%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £115 which is bet.
Below you will find the 2025 Middle Park Stakes Trends. See which patterns have occurred over the recent renewals that you may be able to use for the next renewal. We also have a section that looks at the Middle Park Stakes Trend Analysis.
These are the top three quickest-run Middle Park Stakes races over the last 20 renewals:
- Earthlight (1:09.31) in 2019
- Bushranger (1:09.56) in 2008
- Supremacy (1:09.73) in 2020
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? Over the past 20 renewals, if you had followed the winner of the Middle Park Stakes next time out, then you would have backed a total of 5 winners. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since their win at SP next time out would have returned an LSP of -4.35. Whilst we wait for the 2025 Middle Park Stakes, remember you can get daily racing predictions from the expert tipsters on the racing predictions page.
When looking over the past 20 renewals, a time of 1:09.31 was set by Earthlight in 2019, which is the quickest time over that period. The runner was trained by A Fabre and ridden by Mickael Barzalona. The slowest winning time was set in 2010 when Dream Ahead won in a time of 1:14.28, booked to ride was William Buick by trainer David Simcock.
Middle Park Stakes Past Winners
Here are the Middle Park Stakes' past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won, along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and the total number of runners in the race. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the Middle Park Stakes are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 1:12.29 | Shadow Of Light (GB) 2yo 9-2 (7 of 6) 11/4 | William Buick Charlie Appleby (GB) |
| 2023 1:10.76 | Vandeek (GB) 2yo 9-2 (3 of 9) 5/4F | James Doyle Simon & Ed Crisford (GB) |
| 2022 1:12.02 | Blackbeard (IRE) 2yo 9-2 (2 of 8) 100/30 | Ryan Moore A P O'Brien (IRE) |
| 2021 1:11.32 | Perfect Power (IRE) 2yo 9-0 (1 of 10) 11/4F | Christophe Soumillon Richard Fahey (GB) |
| 2020 1:09.73 | Supremacy (IRE) 2yo 9-0 (3 of 8) 13/2 | Adam Kirby Clive Cox (GB) |
| 2019 1:09.31 | Earthlight (IRE) 2yo 9-0 (4 of 8) 11/4F | Mickael Barzalona A Fabre (FR) |
| 2018 1:10.04 | Ten Sovereigns (IRE) 2yo 9-0 (4 of 8) 8/13F | Donnacha O'Brien A P O'Brien (IRE) |
| 2017 1:12.44 | U S Navy Flag (USA) 2yo 9-0 (11 of 12) 10/1 | Seamie Heffernan A P O'Brien (IRE) |
| 2016 1:12.13 | The Last Lion (IRE) 2yo 9-0 (2 of 10) 25/1 | Joe Fanning Mark Johnston (GB) |
| 2015 1:11.92 | Shalaa (IRE) 2yo 9-0 (6 of 7) 1/2F | Frankie Dettori John Gosden (GB) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Middle Park Stakes have been based:
- GB: 14 winners with an additional 26 placings from 123 runners
- IRE: 5 winners with an additional 8 placings from 45 runners
- FR: 1 winner with an additional 0 placings from 3 runners
2024 Middle Park Stakes Replay
Middle Park Stakes Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the Middle Park Stakes over the last 20 renewals is A P O'Brien, who has won the race four times, with those four winners coming from Crusade (2011), U S Navy Flag (2017), Ten Sovereigns (2018) and Blackbeard (2022). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Middle Park Stakes are Kevin Ryan (2 wins), Charlie Appleby (2 wins) and Clive Cox (2 wins).
Here are some of the top Middle Park Stakes trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| A P O'Brien | 29-4-10 | +13.95 | +6.64 |
| Kevin Ryan | 10-2-4 | +4.00 | +2.05 |
| Charlie Appleby | 6-2-3 | +20.75 | +12.08 |
| Clive Cox | 5-2-3 | +5.75 | +4.35 |
| Richard Fahey | 5-1-2 | -1.25 | +8.15 |
| Peter Chapple-Hyam | 5-1-2 | -2.80 | -2.25 |
| John Gosden | 4-1-2 | -2.50 | -1.74 |
| A Fabre | 1-1-1 | +2.75 | +1.65 |
| David Simcock | 1-1-1 | +1.25 | +0.75 |
| Simon & Ed Crisford | 1-1-1 | +1.25 | +0.75 |
Middle Park Stakes Jockey Statistics
The leading jockey in the Middle Park Stakes over the last 20 renewals is William Buick, who has won the race three times, with those three winners coming from Dream Ahead (2010), Charming Thought (2014) and Shadow Of Light (2024). Other jockeys who have recorded multiple wins in the Middle Park Stakes are Frankie Dettori (2 wins), Seamie Heffernan (2 wins) and Neil Callan (2 wins).
Here are some of the top Middle Park Stakes jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Buick | 9-3-6 | +20.00 | +14.84 |
| Frankie Dettori | 10-2-4 | -6.30 | -4.89 |
| Seamie Heffernan | 5-2-2 | +32.00 | +15.50 |
| Neil Callan | 4-2-3 | +10.00 | +7.05 |
| Ryan Moore | 14-1-5 | -9.67 | -7.73 |
| James Doyle | 5-1-3 | -2.75 | +0.75 |
| Adam Kirby | 4-1-3 | +3.50 | +3.72 |
| Joe Fanning | 3-1-1 | +23.00 | +13.00 |
| Mickael Barzalona | 1-1-1 | +2.75 | +1.65 |
| Christophe Soumillon | 1-1-1 | +2.75 | +1.65 |
2025 Middle Park Stakes Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 4, 1, 8, 1, 4, 1, (5, 10), (1, 2), 8, 2, 1, 2, 5, 1, 1, 2, 1, 5, 1, 2
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones, as you would expect them to do well.
- 20 / 20 (48%) - Break of 13 - 58 days (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (66%) - Achieved a TS of 80+ (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (67%) - Achieved an RPR of 101+ (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (71%) - Won within last 2 starts
- 20 / 20 (72%) - Ran over 6f - 6f (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (73%) - Achieved an RPR of 96+ (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (74%) - Had 1 - 3 wins (90 Days)
- 20 / 20 (75%) - Highest Won is not LST/Cl3/Cl5-6
- 20 / 20 (76%) - Not in a LST/Cl2-3/Cl5 (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (78%) - Had 1 - 4 wins (Trip)
- 20 / 20 (78%) - Furthest Won 6f - 6½f
- 20 / 20 (80%) - Achieved a TS of 67+ (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (80%) - Beaten no more -3l (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (82%) - No bigger than 8/1 (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (82%) - Achieved a TS of 82+ (Last 3)
Remember to use the trends listed above, along with the Newmarket racing predictions, to see if you can find the winner of the Middle Park Stakes. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles covering numerous topics.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, it is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Middle Park Stakes by adding a tip on the race here.
101 Ways to find Winners in Horse Racing
Middle Park Stakes Trend Analysis
✅ The trend factor, which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +51.58, is when runners had 2 wins in the past 90 days.
❌ The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 0 wins in the past 90 days, when backing these, the trend shows a record of 0-44.
Here are the most recent winning draws, along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2024: Winner in 7 (5) [6 Runners]
- 2023: Winner in 3 (9,8) [9 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 2 (5,7) [8 Runners]
- 2021: Winner in 1 (2,8) [10 Runners]
- 2020: Winner in 3 (4,8) [8 Runners]
The course which has produced the most winners of the Middle Park Stakes is Deauville; there have been a total of 9 winners of this race who ran at Deauville last time out. The next best course, which has produced the second most winners, is York; there have been a total of 3 winners of this race who ran at York last time out.
Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Middle Park Stakes; that stallion, No Nay Never, has produced 2 winners (2022,2018).
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Middle Park Stakes despite multiple attempts:
- Dark Angel (0 Wins from 7 runners)
- Exceed And Excel (0 Wins from 6 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Crusade in 2011, winning for A P O'Brien at odds of 25/1 under the guidance of Seamie Heffernan. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals, there have been 9 winning favourites in the race. Before placing your bet on the 2025 Middle Park Stakes, head over to see which other runners today are being backed by the best racing tipsters.
Route to the Middle Park Stakes
Many trainers will target races to use as prep races before coming to the Middle Park Stakes. These are the races which the recent winners ran in before coming here:
| Info | Last Race |
|---|---|
| 2024 - Shadow Of Light York - 2nd of 10 (6/1) | Gimcrack Stakes |
| 2023 - Vandeek Deauville - 1st of 9 (27/5) | Sumbe Prix Morny |
| 2022 - Blackbeard Deauville - 1st of 5 (23/10) | Darley Prix Morny - Finale des Darley Series |
| 2021 - Perfect Power Deauville - 1st of 14 (24/5) | Darley Prix Morny - Finale des Darley Series |
| 2020 - Supremacy Goodwood - 1st of 7 (11/2) | Richmond Stakes |
| 2019 - Earthlight Deauville - 1st of 8 (12/5) | Darley Prix Morny - Finale des Darley Series |
| 2018 - Ten Sovereigns Curragh - 1st of 8 (1/3) | John Sisk & Son Round Tower Stakes |
| 2017 - U S Navy Flag Curragh - 1st of 8 (5/4) | Plusvital Round Tower Stakes |
| 2016 - The Last Lion Doncaster - 2nd of 11 (11/2) | Flying Childers Stakes |
| 2015 - Shalaa Deauville - 1st of 5 (1/2) | Darley Prix Morny |
Other Principal races during the Cambridgeshire Meeting
Remember to head to the Newmarket predictions page to see which runner the racing tipsters support in the Middle Park Stakes. Below are the other principal races that we cover during the Cambridgeshire Meeting, with links to each race blog as well as information for last year's winners.
Thursday at the Cambridgeshire Meeting
The highlight on the opening day of the three-day Cambridgeshire meeting is the Group 3 Tattersalls Stakes, a seven-furlong race for two-year-old runners.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| Tattersall Stakes | The Waco Kid (IRE) 2yo - 13/2 | Hugo Palmer Oisin Murphy |
| Jockey Club Rose Bowl | Al Nayyir (GB) 6yo - 11/8 | Tom Clover Luke Morris |
Friday at the Cambridgeshire Meeting
Day two of the Cambridgeshire is a step up from the opening day with five class one races, the highlight being the £125k Group 2 Joel Stakes contested over a mile. We also have the two-year-old race, the Rockfel Stakes, which carries a purse of £100k.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| Rosemary Stakes | Sirona (GER) 4yo - 6/4 | David Menuisier Ryan Moore |
| Princess Royal Stakes | Time Lock (GB) 5yo - 13/8 | Harry Charlton Ryan Moore |
| Rockfel Stakes | Bubbling (IRE) 2yo - 11/8 | A P O'Brien Ryan Moore |
| Joel Stakes | Prague (IRE) 4yo - 100/30 | Dylan Cunha Daniel Tudhope |
| Godolphin Stakes | Burdett Road (GB) 4yo - 10/1 | James Owen Harry Davies |
Saturday at the Cambridgeshire Meeting
The Cambridgeshire Handicap is the highlight on the third and final day, carrying a purse of £175k; it's a race which spans two counties! It starts in Cambridgeshire and ends in Suffolk! There are also a couple of valuable Group 1s on the final day with the Cheverley Park Stakes and the Middle Park Stakes, which both carry a purse of £275k.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| Royal Lodge Stakes | Wimbledon Hawkeye (GB) 2yo - 4/1 | James Owen James Doyle |
| Cheveley Park Stakes | Lake Victoria (IRE) 2yo - 6/4 | A P O'Brien Ryan Moore |
| Middle Park Stakes | Shadow Of Light (GB) 2yo - 11/4 | Charlie Appleby William Buick |
| Cambridgeshire Handicap | Liberty Lane (IRE) 4yo - 8/1 | K R Burke Clifford Lee |
| Jersey Lily Fillies Nursery | Naina (GB) 2yo - 6/1 | John Ryan Christian Howarth |
| Cambridgeshire Meeting Sprint Handicap | Spanish Blaze (IRE) 3yo - 13/2 | Marcus Tregoning Trevor Whelan |
Article Contributor Information
We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this Middle Park Stakes Preview are at hand, Andy and James. They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for Flat Racing.
James Banting
Expert Guide
Andy Powell
Expert Guide
