2022 Nell Gwyn Stakes Preview, Trends & Analysis

Published: Apr 14, 3:59pm Last Updated: Apr 15, 11:28am Horse Racing 4 Comments 2976 Views

2022 Nell Gwyn Stakes Preview

The Nell Gwyn Stakes was introduced back in 1961 when the first-ever winner of the race was Verbena for Geoffrey Brooke and Doug Smith. The race is a Group 3 run over seven furlongs at the Rowley Mile course at Newmarket. The race is open to three-year-old fillies only. For racing tips on this race and all of the others at the Craven Meeting be sure to head over to the Newmarket Tips page.

When looking over the past 20 renewals, a time of 1:23.24 was set by Osaila in 2015, that is the quickest time over that period, the runner was trained by Richard Hannon and ridden by Frankie Dettori. The slowest winning time was set in 2016 when Nathra won in a time of 1:28.35, booked to ride was Frankie Dettori on this John Gosden trained runner.

These are the top three quickest run Nell Gwyn Stakes over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2015 - Osaila (1:23.24)
  • 2006 - Speciosa (1:23.45)
  • 2013 - Hot Snap (1:24.39)

How competitive is the Nell Gwyn Stakes market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2015 when the race had an over-round of 111%. The race in 2005 was a race which was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 123%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Nell Gwyn Stakes, the over-round has been 117% which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £117 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Nell Gwyn Stakes next time out then you would have back a total of 1 winner. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -8.00. Remember to use the racing predictions along with the information on this page to find you a bet on the 2022 Nell Gwyn Stakes.

Nell Gwyn Stakes Past Ten Winners

Here are the past 10 winners of the Nell Gwyn Stakes. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall which the horse came from and also the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Nell Gwyn Stakes as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse (Drawn) Info
2021
1:24.89
Sacred
3yo 9-0 (3 of 10) 6/1
Ryan Moore
William Haggas
2019
1:25.77
Qabala
3yo 9-0 (7 of 11) 100/30F
David Egan
Roger Varian
2018
1:26.67
Soliloquy
3yo 9-0 (5 of 11) 4/1
William Buick
Charlie Appleby
2017
1:24.42
Daban
3yo 9-0 (11 of 11) 12/1
Frankie Dettori
John Gosden
2016
1:28.35
Nathra
3yo 9-0 (11 of 10) 5/4F
Frankie Dettori
John Gosden
2015
1:23.24
Osaila
3yo 9-0 (2 of 8) 4/1
Frankie Dettori
Richard Hannon
2014
1:26.93
Sandiva
3yo 9-0 (4 of 15) 7/2F
Frankie Dettori
Richard Fahey
2013
1:24.39
Hot Snap
3yo 8-12 (13 of 14) 10/1
Tom Queally
Sir Henry Cecil
2012
1:27.60
Esentepe
3yo 8-12 (2 of 13) 28/1
Pat Dobbs
Richard Hannon Snr
2011
1:24.44
Barefoot Lady
3yo 8-12 (11 of 11) 14/1
Paul Hanagan
Richard Fahey

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Nell Gwyn Stakes have been based:

  • GB: 20 winners with an additional 38 placings from 217 runners
  • IRE: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 8 runners
  • FR: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 3 runners

Nell Gwyn Stakes Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the Nell Gwyn Stakes over the last 20 renewals is John Gosden who has won the race 4 times. Those 4 winners came from Karens Caper (2005), Infallible (2008), Nathra (2016) & Daban (2017). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Nell Gwyn Stakes are Mick Channon (2 wins) & Richard Fahey (2 wins). There is one trainer who has not had the best of times in the Nell Gwyn Stakes, Sir Michael Stoute has sent a total of 11 runners to the race without recording any wins.

Here are some of the top Nell Gwyn Stakes trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
John Gosden 13-4-6 +15.25 +7.40
Mick Channon 13-2-3 +20.00 +10.10
Richard Fahey 6-2-3 +13.50 +7.90
Charlie Appleby 7-1-2 -2.00 -2.50
William Haggas 6-1-2 +1.00 +0.10
Richard Hannon 4-1-1 +1.00 -0.60
Roger Varian 4-1-3 +0.33 +1.10
Marcus Tregoning 3-1-1 +2.50 +0.70
Pam Sly 1-1-1 +9.00 +5.40
Sir Michael Stoute 11-0-1 -11.00 -10.30

Nell Gwyn Stakes Jockey Statistics

The leading jockey in the Nell Gwyn Stakes over the last 20 renewals is Frankie Dettori who has won the race 5 times. Those 5 winners came from Fantasia (2009), Sandiva (2014), Osaila (2015), Nathra (2016) & Daban (2017).

Here are some of the top Nell Gwyn Stakes jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Frankie Dettori 16-5-8 +10.55 +6.49
Ryan Moore 14-1-3 -7.00 -4.18
William Buick 8-1-1 -3.00 -4.60
Paul Hanagan 4-1-2 +11.00 +6.80
Tom Queally 4-1-2 +7.00 +4.15
David Egan 1-1-1 +3.33 +2.00
Silvestre De Sousa 7-0-3 -7.00 -3.10
Jamie Spencer 7-0-0 -7.00 -7.00
James Doyle 6-0-2 -6.00 -3.27
Jim Crowley 6-0-1 -6.00 -4.80

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,4,5,1,11,2,4,2,1,1,8,2,11,2,1,3,1,7,7,1,3

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (82%) - No bigger than 28/1
  • 20 / 20 (85%) - Carried 121-126lbs (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (86%) - Not in a G3 (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (88%) - Highest class place not Cl2-3
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - Field of 7-23 (LTO)
  • 19 / 20 (84%) - Making seasonal debut
  • 19 / 20 (85%) - Fewer than 8 career starts
  • 19 / 20 (88%) - Beaten no more 8.25l (LTO)
  • 18 / 20 (68%) - In the first 3 on debut
  • 18 / 20 (80%) - Won within last 3 starts
  • 17 / 20 (57%) - No bigger than 8/1 (Debut)

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Newmarket racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Nell Gwyn Stakes. You may want to do your own research into the race, there are times when there are a number of runners who pass the trends so you need to do your own research to find a bet, we have a Horse Racing Form Reading Made Easy & What to Look For article to help you do just this in the OLBG Betting School section.

Are you a member on OLBG? If not, then why not! With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then why share your thoughts on the Nell Gwyn Stakes by adding a tip on the race here.

Nell Gwyn Stakes Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +28.63 is when runners had the same jockey as when last winning. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners ran in a Class 1 (G3) last time out, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-31.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2021: Winner in 3 (8,1)
  • 2019: Winner in 7 (6,5)
  • 2018: Winner in 5 (8,10)
  • 2017: Winner in 11 (8,4)
  • 2016: Winner in 11 (13,2)

The course which has produced the most winners of the Nell Gwyn Stakes is Newmarket (Rowley), there has been a total number of 10 winners of this race who ran at Newmarket (Rowley) last time out. The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Kempton (AW), there has been a total number of 3 winners of this race who ran at Kempton (AW) last time out.

Looking over the past renewals, These are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Nell Gwyn Stakes:

  • Danehill Dancer (2 Wins)
  • Footstepsinthesand (2 Wins)
  • Pivotal (2 Wins)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest priced winner was Esentepe in 2012 when winning for Richard Hannon Snr at odds of 28/1 under the guidance of Pat Dobbs. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 6 winning favourites in the race. Ahead of the 2022 Nell Gwyn Stakes why not head over to the best racing tipster page to see what the tipsters are backing today.

Other Principal races at Newmarket racecourse

Here are some other notable races at Newmarket racecourse for throughout the racing season which you may be interested in.

Races in April

Races in May

Races in July

Races in September

Races in October

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