Nell Gwyn Stakes Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (Craven Meeting)

Updated: 3531 Horse Racing

If you are a fan of horse racing trends then this preview of the Nell Gwyn Stakes will be perfect for you! Not only do we look at the trends but we look at past winners as well as trainer and jockey records for the Nell Gwyn Stakes, a race run over 7f at Newmarket during the Craven Meeting.

Nell Gwyn Stakes Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (Craven Meeting)
Andy Powell Content Editor

Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.

2024 Nell Gwyn Stakes Preview

The Nell Gwyn Stakes was introduced back in 1961 when the first-ever winner of the race was Verbena for Geoffrey Brooke and Doug Smith. The race is a Group 3 run over seven furlongs at the Rowley Mile course at Newmarket with the race being open to three-year-old fillies only.

Nell Gwyn Stakes Information:

To see which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are tipping throughout the card that includes this race, head over to the Newmarket tips on the day of the race, do they agree with the runners on the trend shortlist or are they predicting other runners? You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Other Principal Races at Newmarket Racecourse section for links to these.

How competitive is the Nell Gwyn Stakes market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2015 when the race had an over-round of 111%. The race in 2023 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 124%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Nell Gwyn Stakes, the over-round has been 118%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £118 which is bet.

Nell Gwyn Stakes Trends:

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Nell Gwyn Stakes next time out then you would have backed a total of 2 winners. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of +9.00. Remember to bookmark the racing tips page so you can get easy access to the OLBG racing picks on a daily basis.

The runner that holds the record over the past 20 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2023 renewal when Mammas Girl from Richard Hannon under the guidance of Sean Levey, won in a time of 1:28.70, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Osaila, trained by Richard Hannon and ridden by Frankie Dettori set the quickest time of 1:23.24 in the 2015 renewal.

These are the top three quickest-run Nell Gwyn Stakes over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2015 - Osaila (1:23.24)
  • 2006 - Speciosa (1:23.45)
  • 2022 - Cachet (1:24.27)

Nell Gwyn Stakes Past Winners

Here are the Nell Gwyn Stakes past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and also the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Nell Gwyn Stakes as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse (Drawn) Info
2023
1:28.70
Mammas Girl (GB)
3yo 9-2 (10 of 15) 16/1
Sean Levey
Richard Hannon (GB)
2022
1:24.27
Cachet (IRE)
3yo 9-0 (8 of 8) 15/8F
William Buick
George Boughey (GB)
2021
1:24.89
Sacred (GB)
3yo 9-0 (3 of 10) 6/1
Ryan Moore
William Haggas (GB)
2019
1:25.77
Qabala (USA)
3yo 9-0 (7 of 11) 100/30F
David Egan
Roger Varian (GB)
2018
1:26.67
Soliloquy (GB)
3yo 9-0 (5 of 11) 4/1
William Buick
Charlie Appleby (GB)
2017
1:24.42
Daban (IRE)
3yo 9-0 (11 of 11) 12/1
Frankie Dettori
John Gosden (GB)
2016
1:28.35
Nathra (IRE)
3yo 9-0 (11 of 10) 5/4F
Frankie Dettori
John Gosden (GB)
2015
1:23.24
Osaila (IRE)
3yo 9-0 (2 of 8) 4/1
Frankie Dettori
Richard Hannon (GB)
2014
1:26.93
Sandiva (IRE)
3yo 9-0 (4 of 15) 7/2F
Frankie Dettori
Richard Fahey (GB)
2013
1:24.39
Hot Snap (GB)
3yo 8-12 (13 of 14) 10/1
Tom Queally
Sir Henry Cecil (GB)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Nell Gwyn Stakes have been based:

  • GB: 20 winners with an additional 38 placings from 215 runners
  • IRE: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 9 runners
  • FR: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 3 runners

Nell Gwyn Stakes Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the Nell Gwyn Stakes over the last 20 renewals is John Gosden who has won the race 4 times. Those 4 winners came from Karens Caper (2005), Infallible (2008), Nathra (2016) & Daban (2017). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Nell Gwyn Stakes are Mick Channon (2 wins), Richard Fahey (2 wins) & Richard Hannon (2 wins).

Here are some of the top Nell Gwyn Stakes trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
John Gosden 13-4-6 +15.25 +7.40
Mick Channon 13-2-3 +20.00 +10.10
Richard Fahey 7-2-3 +12.50 +6.90
Richard Hannon 5-2-2 +17.00 +9.00
William Haggas 8-1-2 -1.00 -1.90
Charlie Appleby 8-1-3 -3.00 -2.55
Roger Varian 4-1-3 +0.33 +1.10
George Boughey 3-1-1 -0.12 -0.87
Pam Sly 1-1-1 +9.00 +5.40
Sir Michael Stoute 8-0-1 -8.00 -7.30

Nell Gwyn Stakes Jockey Statistics

The leading jockey in the Nell Gwyn Stakes over the last 20 renewals is Frankie Dettori who has won the race 5 times. Those 5 winners came from Fantasia (2009), Sandiva (2014), Osaila (2015), Nathra (2016) & Daban (2017). The only other jockey to have recorded multiple wins in the Nell Gwyn Stakes is William Buick (2 wins).

Here are some of the top Nell Gwyn Stakes jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Frankie Dettori 15-5-7 +11.55 +5.39
William Buick 10-2-3 -2.12 -3.52
Ryan Moore 14-1-3 -7.00 -4.18
Paul Hanagan 4-1-2 +11.00 +6.80
Tom Queally 4-1-2 +7.00 +4.15
Pat Dobbs 2-1-1 +27.00 +15.80
Sean Levey 2-1-1 +15.00 +8.60
Kerrin McEvoy 2-1-2 +6.50 +5.00
David Egan 1-1-1 +3.33 +2.00
Silvestre De Sousa 8-0-3 -8.00 -4.10

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 1, 11, 2, 4, 2, 1, 1, 8, 2, 11, 2, 1, 3, 1, 7, 7, 1, 3, 1, 10

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (80%) - Not in a G3/Cl3/Cl6 (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (81%) - Fewer than 3 starts (Trip)
  • 20 / 20 (82%) - No bigger than 28/1
  • 20 / 20 (84%) - Highest Won is not G1/Cl3/Cl6/Cl7
  • 20 / 20 (84%) - Break of 164 - 332 days (Last Win)
  • 20 / 20 (86%) - Carried 120 - 128lbs (Last Win)
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - Highest Placed is not Cl2/Cl3/Cl6
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - Achieved an RPR of 75+ (Last Win)
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - Carried 121 - 128lbs (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - Not in IRL/ITA/SCO/UAE (Last Win)
  • 19 / 20 (88%) - Achieved a TS of 43+ (Last Win)
  • 18 / 20 (66%) - No bigger than 22/1 (Career)
  • 18 / 20 (87%) - Placed within last 2 starts

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Newmarket racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Nell Gwyn Stakes. If there is anything that you do not understand in this blog, please do leave a comment or alternatively, head over to the Horse Racing Terms and Abbreviations article which is available in the OLBG Betting School section.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Nell Gwyn Stakes by adding a tip on the race here.

Nell Gwyn Stakes Trend Analysis

The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +28.14 is when runners finished in 1st on debut. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners ran in a Class 1 (G3) last time out, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-34.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2023: Winner in 10 (6,12) [15 Runners]
  • 2022: Winner in 8 (6,5) [8 Runners]
  • 2021: Winner in 3 (8,1) [10 Runners]
  • 2019: Winner in 7 (6,5) [11 Runners]
  • 2018: Winner in 5 (8,10) [11 Runners]

The course which has produced the most winners of the Nell Gwyn Stakes is Newmarket (Rowley), there has been a total number of 9 winners of this race who ran at Newmarket (Rowley) last time out. The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Kempton (AW), there has been a total number of 3 winners of this race who ran at Kempton (AW) last time out.

Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Nell Gwyn Stakes:

  • Danehill Dancer (2 Wins)
  • Footstepsinthesand (2 Wins)
  • Pivotal (2 Wins)

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Nell Gwyn Stakes despite multiple attempts:

  • Dark Angel (0 Wins from 5 runners)
  • Invincible Spirit (0 Wins from 5 runners)
  • Kingman (0 Wins from 5 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Esentepe in 2012, winning for Richard Hannon Snr at odds of 28/1 under the guidance of Pat Dobbs. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 7 winning favourites in the race. Before placing your bet on the 2024 Nell Gwyn Stakes head over to see which other runners today are being backed by the best racing tipsters today.

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