Princess of Wales's Stakes Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (July Festival)

Updated: 498 Horse Racing

We look at the Princess of Wales's Stakes ahead of the next renewal, a race contested over 1m4f at Newmarket during the July Festival to see which runners, trainers and jockeys have previously won the race and which trends you can use to find the winner of the Princess of Wales's Stakes.

Princess of Wales's Stakes Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (July Festival)
Andy Powell Content Editor

Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.

2024 Princess of Wales's Preview

Established in 1894, the Princess of Wales's is scheduled to take place during the July Festival each year at the Newmarket Racecourse, this is a Group 2 race that is open to runners who are aged three years old or older, the race is run over a distance of one mile and four furlongs.

Princess of Wales's Stakes Information:

If you are interested in other predictions at Newmarket then head over to the Newmarket tips page to see which runners are being supported by the OLBG racing tipsters and also compare those predictions to the runners that make the trend shortlist when added below. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Other Principal races during the Newmarket July Festival section for links to these.

How competitive is the Princess of Wales's Stakes market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2023 when the race had an over-round of 106%. The race in 2007 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 123%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Princess of Wales's Stakes, the over-round has been 113%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £113 which is bet.

Princess of Wales's Stakes Trends:

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Princess of Wales's Stakes next time out then you would have backed a total of 7 winners. Backing all 20 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of +10.65. Before placing your bet on the 2024 Princess of Wales's Stakes see which other runners today are being backed on the racing predictions page.

The runner that holds the record over the past 20 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2014 renewal when Cavalryman from Saeed bin Suroor under the guidance of Silvestre De Sousa, won in a time of 2:37.04, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Israr, trained by John & Thady Gosden and ridden by Jim Crowley set the quickest time of 2:27.33 in the 2023 renewal.

These are the top three quickest-run Princess of Wales's Stakes over the last 20 renewals:

  1. Israr (2:27.33) in 2023
  2. Universal (2:28.45) in 2013
  3. Communique (2:28.63) in 2019
What the expert says...
The Hardwicke has been responsible for seven of the last nineteen winners of this race, the last to do so was Sir Ron Priestley in 2021 who finished seventh in the Hardwicke before coming to win this race.

Andy Powell - Horse Racing Betting Expert - OLBG.com

Princess of Wales's Stakes Past Winners

Here are the Princess of Wales's Stakes' past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and the total number of runners in the race. The horse's trainer at the time of winning the Princess of Wales's Stakes and the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

YearHorse (Drawn)Info
2023
2:27.33
Israr (GB)
4yo 9-8 (3 of 4) 7/2
Jim Crowley
John & Thady Gosden (GB)
2022
2:28.91
Yibir (GB)
4yo 9-8 (6 of 6) 11/8F
William Buick
Charlie Appleby (GB)
2021
2:29.15
Sir Ron Priestley (GB)
5yo 9-9 (4 of 5) 100/30
Franny Norton
Mark Johnston (GB)
2020
2:34.40
Dame Malliot (GB)
4yo 9-3 (2 of 7) 8/1
Hollie Doyle
Ed Vaughan (GB)
2019
2:28.63
Communique (IRE)
4yo 9-9 (1 of 6) 11/1
Silvestre De Sousa
Mark Johnston (GB)
2018
2:31.40
Best Solution (IRE)
4yo 9-6 (8 of 7) 6/1
Pat Cosgrave
Saeed bin Suroor (GB)
2017
2:31.00
Hawkbill (USA)
4yo 9-2 (1 of 6) 7/2
James Doyle
Charlie Appleby (GB)
2016
2:29.93
Big Orange (GB)
5yo 9-2 (5 of 7) 8/1
James McDonald
Michael Bell (GB)
2015
2:29.00
Big Orange (GB)
4yo 9-2 (1 of 8) 25/1
Jamie Spencer
Michael Bell (GB)
2014
2:37.04
Cavalryman (GB)
8yo 9-2 (4 of 6) 9/1
Silvestre De Sousa
Saeed bin Suroor (GB)

Princess of Wales's Stakes Trainer Statistics

Here are the Princess of Wales's Stakes trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals for trainers who have entries in the 2024 renewal, those not listed have not had a runner. (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

TrainerR-W-PWinEW
John & Thady Gosden2-1-1+2.50-1.00
Marco Botti2-0-1-2.00+1.00
William Haggas2-0-1-2.00-1.44

Princess of Wales's Stakes Jockey Statistics

The leading jockey in the Princess of Wales's Stakes over the last 20 renewals is Ryan Moore who has won the race four times with those four winners coming from Papal Bull (2007), Doctor Fremantle (2009), Crystal Capella (2011) and Fiorente (2012).

Here are the Princess of Wales's Stakes jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals for jockeys who have entries in the 2024 renewal, those not listed have not had a runner. (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

JockeyR-W-PWinEW
Ryan Moore16-4-9+16.50+13.24
Hollie Doyle1-1-1+8.00+5.00
Oisin Murphy1-0-0-1.00-1.00

Princess of Wales's Stakes Trend Analysis

The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +56.88 is when runners were aged 4. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners ran in a field of 13 on debut, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-18.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2023: Winner in 3 [4 Runners]
  • 2022: Winner in 6 (3) [6 Runners]
  • 2021: Winner in 4 (3) [5 Runners]
  • 2020: Winner in 2 (7) [7 Runners]
  • 2019: Winner in 1 (3) [6 Runners]

The course which has produced the most winners of the Princess of Wales's Stakes is Ascot, there has been a total number of 8 winners of this race who ran at Ascot last time out. The next best course which has produced the second most winners is York, there has been a total number of 3 winners of this race who ran at York last time out.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 18 winners from a total of 129 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 2 winners from a total of 6 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Princess of Wales's Stakes:

  • Dubawi (2 Wins)
  • Duke Of Marmalade (2 Wins)

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Princess of Wales's Stakes despite multiple attempts:

  • Frankel (0 Wins from 6 runners)
  • Dansili (0 Wins from 5 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Big Orange in 2015, winning for Michael Bell at odds of 25/1 under the guidance of Jamie Spencer. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there have been 2 winning favourites in the race. Ahead of the 2024 Princess of Wales's Stakes why not head over to the best racing tipster page to see what the tipsters are backing today?

Princess of Wales's Stakes Trend Shortlist

Newmarket will host the 2024 renewal of the Princess of Wales's Stakes which will be run at 3:35 pm on Thursday 11th July 2024 and these are the runners who perform best based on the trends along with the trainer and jockey and their record in the race (Runs-Wins-Places Win LSP / EW LSP):

  • 15/15 Arrest (7/2)
    • John & Thady Gosden (2-1-1 +2.50 / -1.00)
    • Kieran Shoemark (0-0-0 0.00 / 0.00)
  • 13/15 Giavellotto (9/2)
    • Marco Botti (2-0-1 -2.00 / +1.00)
    • Oisin Murphy (1-0-0 -1.00 / -1.00)
  • 13/15 Hamish (11/8)
    • William Haggas (2-0-1 -2.00 / -1.44)
    • Tom Marquand (0-0-0 0.00 / 0.00)
  • 12/15 Time Lock (9/2)
    • Harry Charlton (0-0-0 0.00 / 0.00)
    • Ryan Moore (16-4-9 +16.50 / +13.24)
  • 8/15 Maxi King (25/1)
    • Raphael E Freire (0-0-0 0.00 / 0.00)
    • David Egan (0-0-0 0.00 / 0.00)
  • 7/15 Outbox (12/1)
    • Archie Watson (0-0-0 0.00 / 0.00)
    • Hollie Doyle (1-1-1 +8.00 / +5.00)

*Trainer & Jockey numbers are Runs-Wins-Places Win LSP / EW LSP, Runners, Odds and Trends Passed/Failed correct at the time of posting (1:48 pm Tuesday 9th July 2024), if no odds were available at the time of posting then forecasted odds are used.

Giavellotto won the Yorkshire Cup last time out and a total of 5 previous winners of that race from a total of 19 runners went on to win next time out, backing them all would have returned an LSP of +6.75.

If you are not a fan of the traditional trends above and you want a more in-depth way of using the Princess of Wales's Stakes trends from previous renewals then we have created the scoring trends, these are calculated by looking at over 100 factors including aspects of breeding, horse factors, things like runs, wins and places during their career, under certain circumstances like over the trip or on the ground and many more.

Using all of this information we can assign each horse a score based on how past runners in the Princess of Wales's Stakes performed when running under the same factors, we assign 80% of the score for the win statistics and 20% of the score for place statistics. Here are the top two scoring runners in the 2024 Princess of Wales's Stakes based on the information above, why not compare those to what the OLBG racing tipsters are tipping?

Here are the top 2 scorers at the time of posting (1:48 pm Tuesday 9th July 2024):

  • 🥇 Giavellotto (9/2)
    • Marco Botti (2-0-1 -2.00 / +1.00)
    • Oisin Murphy (1-0-0 -1.00 / -1.00)
  • 🥈 Hamish (11/8)
    • William Haggas (2-0-1 -2.00 / -1.44)
    • Tom Marquand (0-0-0 0.00 / 0.00)

Others: Outbox, Arrest, Time Lock and Maxi King.

Other Principal races during the Newmarket July Festival

Remember to head to the Newmarket predictions page to see which runner the racing tipsters support in the Princess of Waless Stakes. Below are the other principal races that we cover during the July Festival with links to each race blog as well as information for last year's winners.

Friday at the July Festival

The highlight on the Friday, known as Ladies Day is the Princess of Wales's Stakes, a group 2 contested over one mile and four furlongs.

RaceLast WinnerInfo
13:50 Newmarket
Bahrain Trophy Stakes
Castle Way (GB)
3yo - 9/2
Charlie Appleby
William Buick
14:25 Newmarket
July Stakes
Jasour (GB)
2yo - 16/1
Clive Cox
Jim Crowley
15:00 Newmarket
bet365 Sprint Handicap
Quinault (GER)
3yo - 4/1
Stuart Williams
Connor Planas
15:35 Newmarket
Princess of Wales's Stakes
Israr (GB)
4yo - 7/2
John & Thady Gosden
Jim Crowley

Saturday at the July Festival

Festival Friday as it is known features the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes which is part of the British Champion Series and is run over a mile.

RaceLast WinnerInfo
13:50 Newmarket
bet365 Handicap
Killybegs Warrior (IRE)
3yo - 20/1
Charlie Johnston
Kevin Stott
14:25 Newmarket
Duchess of Cambridge Stakes
Persian Dreamer (USA)
2yo - 5/1
Dominic Ffrench Davis
Kevin Stott
15:35 Newmarket
Falmouth Stakes
Nashwa (GB)
4yo - 4/1
John & Thady Gosden
Hollie Doyle

Sunday at the July Festival

As the name would indicate, 'July Cup Day', the main race on the final day of the July Festival is the July Cup, another race which is part of the British Champion Series, this race is contested over six furlongs.

RaceLast WinnerInfo
14:50 Newmarket
bet365 Mile Handicap
Highbank (IRE)
3yo - 11/1
Charlie Appleby
William Buick
15:25 Newmarket
Superlative Stakes
City Of Troy (USA)
2yo - 4/6
A P O'Brien
Ryan Moore
16:00 Newmarket
Bunbury Cup
Biggles (GB)
6yo - 5/1
Ralph Beckett
Ryan Moore
16:35 Newmarket
July Cup
Shaquille (GB)
3yo - 5/2
Julie Camacho
Rossa Ryan

Article Contributor Information

We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this Princess of Wales's Stakes Preview are at hand, Andy and James. They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for Flat Racing.

James Banting

James Banting

Tipster competition assistant

James Banting, a passionate horse racing enthusiast and aficionado, brings a wealth of experience to OLBG, having attended numerous race meetings over the years. His background working with the Jockey Club provides him with a unique insider's perspective on the industry.
Andy Powell

Andy Powell

Content editor

Andy, a seasoned horse racing expert with over 15 years of experience, possesses a comprehensive understanding of the sport, from delving into complex statistical data for flat racing in the UK and Ireland to crafting insightful flat racing blogs for OLBG.

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