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2022 Cesarewitch Preview, Trends & Analysis

Published: Oct 6, 5:13pm Last Updated: Oct 10, 11:25am Horse Racing 3 Comments 13559 Views

2022 Cesarewitch Preview

Newmarket's Cesarewitch Handicap carries Class 2 Heritage status for three years old's and upwards, this marathon contest for stayers run over two miles and two furlongs starts in Cambridgeshire and finishes in Suffolk! Staged usually two weeks after the Cambridgeshire Handicap also run on Newmarket's Rowley Mile Course, the Cesarewitch is the second leg of the 'Autumn Double' for punters and with Lord North's win for favourite backers in this season's Cambridgeshire probably means there are plenty of punters holding potential 'Autumn Double' payouts!

There is plenty of history attached to this great staying handicap, inaugurated in 1839 in the same year as the Cambridgeshire and won by some top stayers including Vintage Crop (1992) who went on to be the first European trained horse to win Australia's Melbourne Cup, Sergeant Cecil in 2005 and top dual-purpose horses down the years like Nomadic Way (1988), Top Cees (1999), Landing Light (2003) and Detroit City (2006).

A valuable pipe opener for many national hunt trainers looking to fine-tune their charges ready for a winter jumps campaign and since the millennium the likes of Martin Pipe, Nicky Henderson and Philip Hobbs have all won the Cesarewitch twice and others adding their name to the roll of honour include Tony Martin and Willie Mullins.

We also have a dedicated Newmarket Betting Picks page that will cover this race as well as all of the other races on the day of the race, see which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are predicting to win this race and the others on the cards.

Over the last 20 renewals, it was the Roger Charlton trained Withhold ridden by Silvestre De Sousa who has set the fastest winning time in the Cesarewitch, the runner won the race in a time of 3:45.59 that was set when winning the race in 2017. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer Brian Meehan and jockey Louis-Philippe Beuzelin with Aaim To Prosper who set the slowest winning time, the race-winning time was 3:59.10 in the 2010 renewal.

These are the top three quickest run Cesarewitch over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2017 - Withhold (3:45.59)
  • 2011 - Never Can Tell I (3:48.04)
  • 2008 - Caracciola (3:48.30)

How competitive is the Cesarewitch market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2004 when the race had an over-round of 129%. The race in 2017 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 150%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Cesarewitch, the over-round has been 141% that means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £141 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Cesarewitch next time out then you would have back a total of 3 winners. Backing all 17 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -1.30. Before placing your bet on the 2022 Cesarewitch see which other runners today are being back on the racing predictions page.

Cesarewitch Past Winners

Here are the past 10 winners of the Cesarewitch. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall which the horse came from and also the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Cesarewitch as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse (Drawn) Info
7yo 8-13 (6 of 32) 8/1
Oisin Murphy
Nicky Henderson
Great White Shark
6yo 8-6 (20 of 34) 9/2F
Jason Watson
W P Mullins
6yo 9-7 (20 of 30) 25/1
Jason Watson
W P Mullins
Low Sun
5yo 9-2 (13 of 33) 10/1
Seamie Heffernan
W P Mullins
4yo 8-8 (24 of 34) 5/1F
Silvestre De Sousa
Roger Charlton
Sweet Selection
4yo 8-8 (23 of 33) 7/1
Silvestre De Sousa
Hughie Morrison
7yo 8-2 (15 of 34) 50/1
Adam Beschizza
Alan King
Big Easy
7yo 8-7 (2 of 33) 10/1
Tom Queally
Philip Hobbs
Scatter Dice
4yo 8-8 (18 of 33) 66/1
Silvestre De Sousa
Mark Johnston
Aaim To Prosper
8yo 9-10 (1 of 34) 66/1
Kieren Fallon
Brian Meehan

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Cesarewitch have been based:

  • GB: 16 winners with an additional 47 placings from 590 runners
  • IRE: 4 winners with an additional 13 placings from 70 runners
  • FR: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 2 runners
  • SPA: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner

Cesarewitch Trainer Statistics

There are two leading trainers in the Cesarewitch over the last 20 renewals with both W P Mullins & Nicky Henderson who have both won the race 3 times. W P Mullins winners have been with Low Sun (2018), Stratum (2019) & Great White Shark (2020). Nicky Henderson winners have been with Landing Light (2003), Caracciola (2008) & Buzz (2021). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Cesarewitch are Mark Johnston (2 wins), Philip Hobbs (2 wins) & Brian Meehan (2 wins). There are multiple trainers who have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Cesarewitch, Ian Williams (0-24), Sir Mark Prescott Bt (0-23), Andrew Balding (0-18), David Pipe (0-17), Brian Ellison (0-15), Richard Fahey (0-14), Jim Goldie (0-14), Ralph Beckett (0-12) & Gary Moore (0-10) have all failed to produce a single winner despite sending multiple runners to the race.

Here are some of the top Cesarewitch trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
W P Mullins 22-3-7 +20.50 +13.75
Nicky Henderson 13-3-5 +60.00 +40.13
Mark Johnston 34-2-6 +50.00 +32.88
Philip Hobbs 7-2-3 +9.50 +5.31
Brian Meehan 4-2-2 +80.00 +49.25
Hughie Morrison 23-1-3 -15.00 -11.24
Alan King 14-1-2 +37.00 +25.00
A J Martin 13-1-4 +2.00 +0.95
Roger Charlton 6-1-2 +0.00 +1.13
David Simcock 6-1-2 -0.50 -0.56

Cesarewitch Jockey Statistics

The leading jockey in the Cesarewitch over the last 20 renewals is Silvestre De Sousa who has won the race 3 times. Those 3 winners came from Scatter Dice (2013), Sweet Selection (2016) & Withhold (2017). The only other jockey to have recorded multiple wins in the Cesarewitch is Jason Watson (2 wins). There are multiple jockeys who have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Cesarewitch, Joe Fanning (0-15), Jimmy Quinn (0-13), J F Egan (0-12), Jim Crowley (0-12), Paul Hanagan (0-11), William Buick (0-11), Nicky Mackay (0-11), Martin Dwyer (0-11) & Franny Norton (0-10) have all failed to produce a single winner despite having multiple rides to the race.

Here are some of the top Cesarewitch jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Silvestre De Sousa 8-3-4 +73.00 +45.51
Jason Watson 3-2-2 +28.50 +17.44
Ryan Moore 16-1-5 -3.00 -0.62
Frankie Dettori 14-1-2 +12.00 +6.26
Andrea Atzeni 11-1-3 -5.50 -2.06
Jamie Spencer 10-1-4 -4.50 -0.81
Oisin Murphy 8-1-3 +1.00 +4.63
Royston Ffrench 6-1-1 +11.00 +5.00
Tom Queally 6-1-1 +5.00 +1.25
Seamie Heffernan 2-1-1 +9.00 +5.25

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,16,6,(2,8),28,1,(3,24),4,1,22,18,2,8,3,15,(17,23),1,7,15,1,17

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (73%) - Not over 14f or 14.5f (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (80%) - Not at HYD, GDW or AYR (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (84%) - Official Rating of 83+
  • 20 / 20 (87%) - Ran over 7f+ on debut
  • 20 / 20 (90%) - Debut was not in Ireland
  • 20 / 20 (91%) - Never won a Class 1
  • 19 / 20 (72%) - Drawn no higher than Stall 25
  • 19 / 20 (78%) - Had won 1-5 Handicaps
  • 19 / 20 (80%) - Fewer than 8 season starts
  • 19 / 20 (84%) - No won off bigger than 16/1
  • 19 / 20 (85%) - In a Class 3 or higher (LTO)
  • 19 / 20 (91%) - Previously ran over 15f+
  • 18 / 20 (67%) - Finished in the first 6 (LTO)
  • 18 / 20 (73%) - Top 2 finish with last 5 runs
  • 18 / 20 (77%) - No HG or just CheekPieces
  • 17 / 20 (71%) - 2-5 Career wins on turf
  • 17 / 20 (79%) - Highest class placed of L-Cl3
  • 17 / 20 (86%) - Either a filly or gelding

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Newmarket racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Cesarewitch. Maybe you are looking to back something in this race on the tote, but you are not sure of the process or how the tote works? No problem! We have an article which is dedicated to The Tote for you to read which explains everything you need to know! Be sure to check out the other articles too in the OLBG Betting School.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not! With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then why share your thoughts on the Cesarewitch by adding a tip on the race here.

Cesarewitch Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +54.00 is when runners had a highest class won of Class 2. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners ran over 1m6f last time out, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-145.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2021: Winner in 6 (25,27,2) [32 Runners]
  • 2020: Winner in 20 (5,26,4) [34 Runners]
  • 2019: Winner in 20 (23,28,6) [30 Runners]
  • 2018: Winner in 13 (16,7,22) [33 Runners]
  • 2017: Winner in 24 (28,5,19) [34 Runners]

The courses which have produced the most winners of the Cesarewitch are Ascot and Doncaster, there has been a total number of 3 winners from each of those courses.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 15 winners from a total of 597 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 5 winners from a total of 66 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, These are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Cesarewitch:

  • Champs Elysees (2 Wins)
  • Val Royal (2 Wins)

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Cesarewitch despite multiple attempts:

  • Galileo (0 Wins from 19 runners)
  • Hernando (0 Wins from 16 runners)
  • Cape Cross (0 Wins from 9 runners)
  • Lomitas (0 Wins from 9 runners)
  • Singspiel (0 Wins from 9 runners)
  • Daylami (0 Wins from 8 runners)
  • Deploy (0 Wins from 8 runners)
  • Hurricane Run (0 Wins from 8 runners)
  • Rainbow Quest (0 Wins from 8 runners)
  • Sea The Stars (0 Wins from 8 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest priced winner was Aaim To Prosper in 2012 when winning for Brian Meehan at odds of 66/1 under the guidance of Kieren Fallon. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 4 winning favourites in the race. Remember to bookmark the best racing tipsters page so you can get easy access to the best OLBG racing tipsters.

Other Principal races at Newmarket racecourse


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