Cesarewitch Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (Future Champions Festival)

Updated: 16160 Horse Racing

We look at the Cesarewitch ahead of the next renewal, a race contested over 2m2f at Newmarket during the Future Champions Festival to see which runners, trainers and jockeys have previously won the race and which trends you can use to find the winner of the Cesarewitch.

Cesarewitch Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (Future Champions Festival)
Andy Powell Content Editor

Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.

2024 Cesarewitch Preview

Newmarket's Cesarewitch Handicap carries Class 2 Heritage status for three years old and upwards, this marathon contest for stayers is run over two miles and two furlongs starting in Cambridgeshire and finishing in Suffolk! Staged usually two weeks after the Cambridgeshire Handicap and is also run on Newmarket's Rowley Mile Course, the Cesarewitch is the second leg of the 'Autumn Double' for punters and with Lord North's win for favourite backers in this season's Cambridgeshire probably means there are plenty of punters holding potential 'Autumn Double' payouts!

There is plenty of history attached to this great staying handicap, inaugurated in 1839 in the same year as the Cambridgeshire and won by some top stayers including Vintage Crop (1992) who went on to be the first European-trained horse to win Australia's Melbourne Cup, Sergeant Cecil in 2005 and top dual-purpose horses down the years like Nomadic Way (1988), Top Cees (1999), Landing Light (2003) and Detroit City (2006).

A valuable pipe opener for many national hunt trainers looking to fine-tune their charges ready for a winter jumps campaign and since the millennium the likes of Martin Pipe, Nicky Henderson and Philip Hobbs have all won the Cesarewitch twice and others have added their name to the roll of honour include Tony Martin and Willie Mullins.

Cesarewitch Information:

Our dedicated Newmarket tips page will not only bring you predictions from the OLBG racing tipsters for the upcoming card that includes the Cesarewitch but will also have predictions for each meeting at Newmarket throughout the season so be sure to head over there. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Other Principal Races at Newmarket Racecourse section for links to these.

How competitive is the Cesarewitch market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2004 when the race had an over-round of 129%. The race in 2017 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 150%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Cesarewitch, the over-round has been 140%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £140 which is bet.

Cesarewitch Trends:

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Cesarewitch next time out then you would have backed a total of 4 winners. Backing all 18 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of +0.70. Remember to use the racing predictions along with the information on this page to find a bet on the 2024 Cesarewitch.

The runner that holds the record over the past 20 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2010 renewal when Aaim To Prosper from Brian Meehan under the guidance of Louis-Philippe Beuzelin, won in a time of 3:59.10, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Withhold, trained by Roger Charlton and ridden by Silvestre De Sousa set the quickest time of 3:45.59 in the 2017 renewal.

These are the top three quickest-run Cesarewitch over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2017 - Withhold (3:45.59)
  • 2011 - Never Can Tell I (3:48.04)
  • 2008 - Caracciola (3:48.30)

Cesarewitch Past Winners

Here are the Cesarewitch past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Cesarewitch as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

YearHorse (Drawn)Info
2023
3:52.64
The Shunter (IRE)
10yo 9-1 (3 of 31) 14/1
James Doyle
Emmet Mullins (IRE)
2022
3:52.87
Run For Oscar (IRE)
7yo 8-11 (9 of 21) 4/1
David Egan
C Byrnes (IRE)
2021
3:48.43
Buzz (FR)
7yo 8-13 (6 of 32) 8/1
Oisin Murphy
Nicky Henderson (GB)
2020
3:55.15
Great White Shark (FR)
6yo 8-6 (20 of 34) 9/2F
Jason Watson
W P Mullins (IRE)
2019
3:58.64
Stratum (GB)
6yo 9-7 (20 of 30) 25/1
Jason Watson
W P Mullins (IRE)
2018
3:48.96
Low Sun (GB)
5yo 9-2 (13 of 33) 10/1
Seamie Heffernan
W P Mullins (IRE)
2017
3:45.59
Withhold (GB)
4yo 8-8 (24 of 34) 5/1F
Silvestre De Sousa
Roger Charlton (GB)
2016
3:53.41
Sweet Selection (GB)
4yo 8-8 (23 of 33) 7/1
Silvestre De Sousa
Hughie Morrison (GB)
2015
3:56.02
Grumeti (GB)
7yo 8-2 (15 of 34) 50/1
Adam Beschizza
Alan King (GB)
2014
3:49.10
Big Easy (GER)
7yo 8-7 (2 of 33) 10/1
Tom Queally
Philip Hobbs (GB)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Cesarewitch have been based:

  • GB: 14 winners with an additional 48 placings from 559 runners
  • IRE: 6 winners with an additional 12 placings from 82 runners
  • FR: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 2 runners

Cesarewitch Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the Cesarewitch over the last 20 renewals is W P Mullins who has won the race three times with those three winners coming from Low Sun (2018), Stratum (2019) and Great White Shark (2020). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Cesarewitch are Nicky Henderson (2 wins), Philip Hobbs (2 wins) and Brian Meehan (2 wins). There are multiple trainers who have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Cesarewitch, Ian Williams (0-26), Sir Mark Prescott Bt (0-22), Andrew Balding (0-19), David Pipe (0-19), Brian Ellison (0-15), Jim Goldie (0-15), Richard Fahey (0-14), Ralph Beckett (0-12) and Gary Moore (0-10) have all failed to produce a single winner despite sending multiple runners to the race.

Here are some of the top Cesarewitch trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

TrainerR-W-PWinEW
W P Mullins30-3-7+12.50+5.75
Nicky Henderson13-2-4+47.00+31.63
Philip Hobbs6-2-3+10.50+6.31
Brian Meehan4-2-2+80.00+49.25
Hughie Morrison26-1-5-18.00-7.11
Alan King16-1-2+35.00+23.00
A J Martin13-1-4+2.00+0.95
Roger Charlton6-1-2+0.00+1.13
David Simcock6-1-2-0.50-0.56
Jamie Osborne4-1-1+22.00+12.63

Cesarewitch Jockey Statistics

The leading jockey in the Cesarewitch over the last 20 renewals is Silvestre De Sousa who has won the race three times with those three winners coming from Scatter Dice (2013), Sweet Selection (2016) and Withhold (2017). The only other jockey to have recorded multiple wins in the Cesarewitch is Jason Watson (2 wins). There are multiple jockeys who have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Cesarewitch, Ryan Moore (0-16), Joe Fanning (0-14), Jim Crowley (0-14), William Buick (0-13), Jimmy Quinn (0-13), Luke Morris (0-10), J F Egan (0-10) and Hayley Turner (0-10) have all failed to produce a single winner despite sending multiple rides to the race.

Here are some of the top Cesarewitch jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

JockeyR-W-PWinEW
Silvestre De Sousa8-3-4+73.00+45.51
Jason Watson4-2-2+27.50+16.44
Frankie Dettori13-1-3+13.00+9.76
Andrea Atzeni12-1-3-6.50-3.06
Jamie Spencer9-1-4-3.50+0.19
Oisin Murphy8-1-3+1.00+4.63
James Doyle6-1-3+9.00+8.75
Tom Queally6-1-1+5.00+1.25
Royston Ffrench5-1-1+12.00+6.00
David Egan5-1-1+0.00-1.50

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): (2, 8), 28, 1, (3, 24), 4, 1, 22, 18, 2, 8, 3, 15, (17, 23), 1, 7, 15, 1, 17, 5, 11

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (78%) - Achieved an RPR of 79+ (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (81%) - Break of 29 - 728 days (Last Win)
  • 20 / 20 (82%) - Held an OR of 82+ (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (84%) - Not on HY/STD-SLW/STD (Last Win)
  • 20 / 20 (85%) - Achieved an RPR of 87+ (Last 3)
  • 20 / 20 (85%) - No bigger than 16/1 (Career Win)
  • 20 / 20 (87%) - Within the first 27 of the market
  • 20 / 20 (87%) - Ran over 7f - 2mf (Debut)
  • 20 / 20 (88%) - No bigger than 66/1
  • 20 / 20 (88%) - Made 2 - 29 starts (Hcps)
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - Not in a G1-2/Cl2/Cl6 (Debut)
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - Furthest Won 1m4f - 2m4f
  • 19 / 20 (84%) - No bigger than 11/1 (Last Win)
  • 19 / 20 (89%) - Won by at least a neck (Last Win)
  • 18 / 20 (56%) - Achieved an RPR of 91+ (Going)
  • 18 / 20 (75%) - Achieved an RPR of 92+ (Hcps)
  • 18 / 20 (88%) - No bigger than 33/1 (Career Place)
  • 18 / 20 (90%) - Achieved a TS of 51+ (Last 3)

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Newmarket racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Cesarewitch. Maybe you are looking to back something in this race on the tote, but you are not sure of the process or how the tote works, No problem! We have an article which is dedicated to The Tote for you to read which explains everything you need to know! Be sure to check out the other articles in the OLBG Betting School.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Cesarewitch by adding a tip on the race here.

Cesarewitch Trend Analysis

The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +48.00 is when runners had a highest class won of Class 2. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners ran over 1m6f last time out, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-141.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2023: Winner in 3 (22,15,8) [31 Runners]
  • 2022: Winner in 9 (2,5,1) [21 Runners]
  • 2021: Winner in 6 (25,27,2) [32 Runners]
  • 2020: Winner in 20 (5,26,4) [34 Runners]
  • 2019: Winner in 20 (23,28,6) [30 Runners]

The course which has produced the most winners of the Cesarewitch is Doncaster, there has been a total number of 3 winners of this race who ran at Doncaster last time out.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 16 winners from a total of 582 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 4 winners from a total of 61 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Cesarewitch:

  • Champs Elysees (2 Wins)
  • Val Royal (2 Wins)

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Cesarewitch despite multiple attempts:

  • Galileo (0 Wins from 22 runners)
  • Hernando (0 Wins from 13 runners)
  • Mastercraftsman (0 Wins from 10 runners)
  • Authorized (0 Wins from 9 runners)
  • Cape Cross (0 Wins from 9 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Aaim To Prosper in 2012, winning for Brian Meehan at odds of 66/1 under the guidance of Kieren Fallon. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 4 winning favourites in the race. Remember to use the best racing tipsters along with the information on this page to find you a bet on the 2024 Cesarewitch.

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