Irish Cesarewitch Preview, Trends & Analysis

We look at the Class 2 Irish Cesarewitch ahead of the next renewal, a race contested over 2m at Curragh to see which runners, trainers and jockeys have previously won the race and which trends can you use to find the winner of the Irish Cesarewitch.

Irish Cesarewitch Preview, Trends & Analysis
Irish Cesarewitch Preview, Trends & Analysis

2023 Irish Cesarewitch Preview

Scheduled to take place in October of each year at the Curragh racecourse is the Irish Cesarewitch, the Irish version of the English Cesarewitch, this 'Premier Handicap' is open to runners aged three or older and is run over stamina testing two miles, because of the trip, plenty of national hunt trainers target the race and plenty find winners as you can see from the trainer statistics below.

Irish Cesarewitch Content:

Our dedicated Curragh Betting Picks will not only bring you predictions from the OLBG racing tipsters for the upcoming card that includes the Irish Cesarewitch but will also have predictions for each meeting at Curragh throughout the season so be sure to head over there.

When looking over the past 20 renewals, a time of 3:25.80 was set by Montefeltro in 2013, which is the quickest time over that period, the runner was trained by Brian Ellison and ridden by Robert Tart. The slowest winning time was set in 2012 when Voleuse De Coeurs won in a time of 3:54.80, booked to ride was Leigh Roche on this D K Weld trained runner.

These are the top three quickest-run Irish Cesarewitch over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2013 - Montefeltro (3:25.80)
  • 2003 - Zimbabwe (3:26.50)
  • 2004 - Essex (3:29.00)

How competitive is the Irish Cesarewitch market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2015 when the race had an over-round of 135%. The race in 2009 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 168%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Irish Cesarewitch, the over-round has been 149%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £149 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Irish Cesarewitch next time out then you would have back a total of 3 winners. Backing all 17 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -7.53. Before placing your bet on the 2023 Irish Cesarewitch see which other runners today are being back on the racing predictions page.

Irish Cesarewitch Past Winners

Here are the Irish Cesarewitch past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and also the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Irish Cesarewitch as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse (Drawn) Info
2022
3:38.97
Waterville (IRE)
3yo 8-9 (18 of 30) 5/1F
Wayne Lordan
A P O'Brien (IRE)
2021
3:38.30
Line Out (IRE)
9yo 8-9 (0 of 30) 18/1
Shane Foley
John E Kiely (IRE)
2020
3:52.60
Cape Gentleman (IRE)
4yo 9-0 (0 of 21) 15/2
Ronan Whelan
Emmet Mullins (IRE)
2019
3:44.80
Royal Illusion (IRE)
7yo 8-5 (0 of 18) 10/1
J M Sheridan (7lbs)
W P Mullins (IRE)
2018
3:35.20
Brazos (USA)
4yo 8-12 (0 of 24) 16/1
Shane Foley
John Joseph Murphy (IRE)
2017
3:51.80
Lord Erskine (IRE)
4yo 8-5 (0 of 24) 25/1
Conor Hoban
H Rogers (IRE)
2016
3:29.40
Laws Of Spin (IRE)
3yo 8-6 (0 of 20) 7/1
Chris Hayes
W P Mullins (IRE)
2015
3:37.50
Digeanta (IRE)
8yo 9-10 (0 of 20) 16/1
W J Lee
W P Mullins (IRE)
2014
3:29.90
El Salvador (IRE)
5yo 9-5 (0 of 21) 25/1
Donnacha O'Brien (7lbs)
A P O'Brien (IRE)
2013
3:25.80
Montefeltro (GB)
5yo 9-4 (0 of 30) 8/1
Robert Tart (3lbs)
Brian Ellison (GB)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Irish Cesarewitch have been based:

  • IRE: 19 winners with an additional 57 placings from 438 runners
  • GB: 1 winner with an additional 2 placings from 16 runners
  • FR: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner

Irish Cesarewitch Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the Irish Cesarewitch over the last 20 renewals is W P Mullins who has won the race 4 times. Those 4 winners came from Dani California (2009), Digeanta (2015), Laws Of Spin (2016) & Royal Illusion (2019). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Irish Cesarewitch are A P O'Brien (3 wins), D K Weld (2 wins) & John E Kiely (2 wins). There are two trainers who have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Irish Cesarewitch, Joseph Patrick O'Brien has sent a total of 28 runners to the race without recording any wins whilst A J Martin has sent out 17 without a winner.

Here are some of the top Irish Cesarewitch trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
W P Mullins 40-4-12 +3.50 +3.94
A P O'Brien 18-3-5 +29.00 +16.26
D K Weld 24-2-6 -2.00 -3.25
John E Kiely 12-2-4 +13.00 +7.76
Noel Meade 18-1-7 -13.67 -6.66
Mrs John Harrington 9-1-1 +4.00 -0.50
H Rogers 6-1-1 +20.00 +10.63
Brian Ellison 5-1-1 +4.00 +1.00
Emmet Mullins 4-1-1 +4.50 +0.75
John Joseph Murphy 3-1-1 +14.00 +8.00

Irish Cesarewitch Jockey Statistics

The leading jockey in the Irish Cesarewitch over the last 20 renewals is Shane Foley who has won the race 2 times. Those 2 winners came from Brazos (2018) & Line Out (2021). There are multiple jockeys who have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Irish Cesarewitch, Declan McDonogh (0-15), N G McCullagh (0-14) & Kevin Manning (0-13) have all failed to produce a single winner despite having multiple rides to the race.

Here are some of the top Irish Cesarewitch jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Shane Foley 14-2-4 +22.00 +13.75
Wayne Lordan 17-1-2 -11.00 -11.49
Rory Cleary 15-1-4 +2.00 +2.00
Chris Hayes 15-1-3 -7.00 -5.87
W J Lee 13-1-6 +4.00 +10.00
Gary Carroll 12-1-2 -4.50 -6.44
Conor Hoban 11-1-2 +15.00 +7.63
Seamie Heffernan 10-1-4 +3.00 +3.81
Ronan Whelan 9-1-2 -0.50 -1.50
Leigh Roche 5-1-1 +2.00 -0.25

2023 Irish Cesarewitch Trends

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,3,2,1,1,8,3,1,23,1,1,15,18,7,(7,19),13,(5,8),13,(DSQ,14),11,1

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (78%) - No bigger than 25/1
  • 20 / 20 (78%) - Achieved a TS of 58+ (Last 5)
  • 20 / 20 (79%) - Won within last 6 starts
  • 20 / 20 (79%) - Fewer than 12 starts (Hcps)
  • 20 / 20 (82%) - Had 3-16 placings (Career)
  • 20 / 20 (83%) - Fewer than 3 wins (Hcps)
  • 19 / 20 (70%) - Ran over 1m4f - 2m (Last Win)
  • 19 / 20 (72%) - No bigger than 33/1 (Career)
  • 19 / 20 (76%) - Had won within the past year
  • 19 / 20 (82%) - Beaten no more than 15l (LTO)
  • 19 / 20 (86%) - In at least a Class 3 (LTO)
  • 19 / 20 (87%) - No more than+2yrs vs ave age
  • 19 / 20 (88%) - Carried 112 lbs or more
  • 19 / 20 (90%) - No older than 8yo
  • 18 / 20 (64%) - Best in 3 of at least 2nd
  • 18 / 20 (71%) - Made 5-20 starts (Turf)
  • 18 / 20 (81%) - Made 2+ starts (Season)
  • 18 / 20 (82%) - Previously won over 1m4f+
  • 17 / 20 (69%) - Had 2-6 wins (Career)
  • 17 / 20 (73%) - Made 6-30 starts (Career)

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Curragh racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Irish Cesarewitch. If you are a newcomer to horse racing betting, then the number of types of bets can be scary! Don't let that put you off though, head over to this Types Of Horse Racing Bet article and have a read, you will then have a better knowledge of betting on racing in the future and there are plenty of other articles in the OLBG Betting School too.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Irish Cesarewitch by adding a tip on the race here.

Irish Cesarewitch Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +47.00 is when runners had 2 season wins. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 0 places in the past 180 days, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-84.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2022: Winner in 18 (3,32,2) [30 Runners]
  • 2021: Winner in 0 (0,0,0) [30 Runners]
  • 2020: Winner in 0 (0,0) [21 Runners]
  • 2019: Winner in 0 (0,0,0) [18 Runners]
  • 2018: Winner in 0 (0,0,0) [24 Runners]

The course which has produced the most winners of the Irish Cesarewitch is Listowel, there has been a total number of 5 winners of this race who ran at Listowel last time out. The next best courses which have produced the second most winners are Leopardstown and Curragh, there has been a total number of 4 winners from each of those courses.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 15 winners from a total of 359 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 5 winners from a total of 96 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Irish Cesarewitch, that stallion is Galileo who has produced 2 winners (2014,2010).

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Irish Cesarewitch despite multiple attempts:

  • Authorized (0 Wins from 9 runners)
  • Cape Cross (0 Wins from 6 runners)
  • Dansili (0 Wins from 6 runners)
  • Revoque (0 Wins from 6 runners)
  • Definite Article (0 Wins from 5 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest priced winner was El Salvador in 2014 when winning for A P O'Brien at odds of 25/1 under the guidance of Donnacha O'Brien. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 6 winning favourites in the race. Whilst we wait for the 2023 Irish Cesarewitch remember you can get daily racing predictions from the top racing tipsters on the best racing tipsters page.

Other Principal races at Curragh racecourse

Here are some other notable races at the Curragh racecourse throughout the racing season that you may be interested in.

Races in March

Races in May

Races in June

Races in July

Races in August

Races in September

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