Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.
2026 Earl Of Sefton Stakes Preview
The Group 3 Earl of Sefton Stakes is the feature race on the last day of the Craven meeting at Newmarket.
The race is open to four-year-olds or older and is run over a straight one-mile and one furlong. The 1999 race was held at the July course over a slightly shorter trip.
Previously known as the Rubbing House Stakes, the race was first run in 1971 and two years later acquired the now-named Earl of Sefton Stakes.
The late great Sir Henry Cecil notched up an impressive seven winners in this race between 1978 & 2008.
Earl Of Sefton Stakes Information:
- Earl Of Sefton Stakes Past Winners
- Earl Of Sefton Stakes Trainer Statistics
- Earl Of Sefton Stakes Jockey Statistics
We also have a dedicated Newmarket tips page that will cover this race as well as all of the other races on the day of the race, see which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are predicting to win this race and the others on the cards. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Other Principal races during the Craven Meeting section for links to these.
Best Horse Racing Betting Sites 2025
How competitive is the Earl Of Sefton Stakes market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2025 when the race had an over-round of 108%. The race in 2010 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 117%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Earl Of Sefton Stakes, the over-round has been 113%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £113 which is bet.
Below you will find the 2026 Earl Of Sefton Stakes Trends. See which patterns have occurred over the recent renewals that you may be able to use for the next renewal, we also have a section that looks at the Earl Of Sefton Stakes Trend Analysis.
These are the top three quickest-run Earl Of Sefton Stakes over the last 20 renewals:
- Manduro (1:47.26) in 2007
- Ottoman Fleet (1:47.51) in 2024
- Tazeez (1:47.83) in 2009
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? Over the past 20 renewals, if you had followed the winner of the Earl Of Sefton Stakes next time out, then you would have backed a total of 6 winners. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since their win at SP next time out would have returned an LSP of -0.63. Before placing your bet on the 2026 Earl Of Sefton Stakes, see which other runners today are being backed on the racing predictions page.
The runner that holds the record over the past 20 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2023 renewal when Ottoman Fleet from Charlie Appleby under the guidance of William Buick, won in a time of 1:55.17, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Manduro, trained by A Fabre and ridden by Stephane Pasquier set the quickest time of 1:47.26 in the 2007 renewal.
Earl Of Sefton Stakes Past Winners
Here are the Earl Of Sefton Stakes' past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won, along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and the total number of runners in the race. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the Earl Of Sefton Stakes are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 1:54.07 | Persica (IRE) 4yo 9-2 (5 of 5) 3/1 | Ryan Moore Richard Hannon (GB) |
| 2024 1:47.51 | Ottoman Fleet (GB) 5yo 9-2 (8 of 9) 7/4F | William Buick Charlie Appleby (GB) |
| 2023 1:55.17 | Ottoman Fleet (GB) 4yo 9-2 (6 of 7) 6/4F | William Buick Charlie Appleby (GB) |
| 2022 1:49.60 | Master Of The Seas (IRE) 4yo 9-0 (6 of 7) 5/4F | William Buick Charlie Appleby (GB) |
| 2021 1:52.05 | My Oberon (IRE) 4yo 9-0 (1 of 4) 7/1 | James Doyle William Haggas (GB) |
| 2019 1:52.43 | Zabeel Prince (IRE) 6yo 9-0 (2 of 10) 9/2F | Andrea Atzeni Roger Varian (GB) |
| 2018 1:52.38 | Forest Ranger (IRE) 4yo 8-13 (3 of 8) 8/1 | Tony Hamilton Richard Fahey (GB) |
| 2017 1:51.27 | Calderon (IRE) 4yo 8-13 (4 of 7) 10/1 | Pat Dobbs Richard Hannon (GB) |
| 2016 1:53.67 | Mahsoob (GB) 5yo 8-13 (10 of 9) 100/30 | Paul Hanagan John Gosden (GB) |
| 2015 1:51.81 | French Navy (GB) 7yo 8-13 (4 of 8) 3/1F | William Buick Charlie Appleby (GB) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Earl Of Sefton Stakes have been based:
- GB: 19 winners with an additional 27 placings from 148 runners
- FR: 1 winner with an additional 2 placings from 3 runners
- QA: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 3 runners
- IRE: 0 winners with an additional 2 placings from 2 runners
Earl Of Sefton Stakes Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes over the last 20 renewals is Charlie Appleby, who has won the race four times, with those four winners coming from French Navy (2015), Master Of The Seas (2022) and Ottoman Fleet (2023 & 2024). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes are John Gosden (3 wins), Jane Chapple-Hyam (2 wins) and Richard Hannon (2 wins).
Here are some of the top Earl Of Sefton Stakes trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Appleby | 13-4-7 | -1.50 | -1.82 |
| John Gosden | 6-3-5 | +12.58 | +7.91 |
| Jane Chapple-Hyam | 8-2-3 | +1.00 | +0.18 |
| Richard Hannon | 3-2-3 | +12.00 | +8.33 |
| Sir Michael Stoute | 11-1-3 | -7.50 | -5.10 |
| David Elsworth | 6-1-1 | -1.67 | -3.00 |
| Roger Varian | 5-1-1 | +0.50 | -0.30 |
| Richard Fahey | 3-1-2 | +6.00 | +3.95 |
| A Fabre | 3-1-3 | -0.50 | +0.94 |
| William Haggas | 1-1-1 | +7.00 | +0.00 |
Earl Of Sefton Stakes Jockey Statistics
The leading jockey in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes over the last 20 renewals is William Buick, who has won the race five times, with those five winners coming from Questioning (2012), French Navy (2015), Master Of The Seas (2022) and Ottoman Fleet (2023 & 2024). There is one jockey who has not had the best of times in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes, Frankie Dettori has ridden 10 runners in the race without recording any wins.
Here are some of the top Earl Of Sefton Stakes jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Buick | 9-5-8 | +13.50 | +8.98 |
| Ryan Moore | 13-1-4 | -9.00 | -7.45 |
| James Doyle | 9-1-1 | -1.00 | -8.00 |
| Tom Queally | 8-1-4 | +1.00 | -0.05 |
| Andrea Atzeni | 6-1-3 | -0.50 | +0.73 |
| Adam Kirby | 5-1-1 | +0.00 | -1.60 |
| J F Egan | 4-1-2 | +0.33 | +0.90 |
| Pat Dobbs | 2-1-2 | +9.00 | +6.40 |
| Tony Hamilton | 2-1-2 | +7.00 | +4.95 |
| Neil Callan | 2-1-2 | +4.50 | +4.20 |
2026 Earl Of Sefton Stakes Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 1, 6, 1, 3, 3, 2, 3, 2, 2, 3, 1, 2, 2, 2, (1, 4, 9), 4, 1, 1, 1, (2, 4)
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones, as you would expect them to do well.
- 20 / 20 (63%) - No bigger than 10/1
- 20 / 20 (77%) - Ran over 1m - 1m2f (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (78%) - Within the first 6 of the market
- 20 / 20 (83%) - Furthest Placed 1m - 1m3f
- 20 / 20 (83%) - Carried 122 - 134lbs (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (83%) - Not on HY/GS/SLW/STD-SLW (Debut)
- 20 / 20 (85%) - Not in DEU/IRL/ITA/QAT/ZAF/TUR/UAE (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (87%) - Fewer than 1 wins (90 Days)
- 20 / 20 (88%) - No bigger than 25/1 (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Carried 123 - 135lbs (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Fewer than 1 wins (Season)
- 20 / 20 (89%) - Fewer than 3 wins (Going)
- 19 / 20 (80%) - Placed within last 3 starts
- 18 / 20 (69%) - Achieved a TS of 52+ (LTO)
- 18 / 20 (71%) - Achieved a TS of 95+ (Career)
Remember to use the trends listed above, along with the Newmarket racing predictions, to see if you can find the winner of the Earl Of Sefton Stakes. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles covering numerous topics.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, it is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Earl Of Sefton Stakes by adding a tip on the race here.
101 Ways to find Winners in Horse Racing
Earl Of Sefton Stakes Trend Analysis
✅ The trend factor, which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +18.58, is when runners ran over 1m when last winning.
❌ The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 1 win in the past 90 days, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-20.
Here are the most recent winning draws, along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2025: Winner in 5 (6) [5 Runners]
- 2024: Winner in 8 (2,4) [9 Runners]
- 2023: Winner in 6 (2) [7 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 6 (4) [7 Runners]
- 2021: Winner in 1 [4 Runners]
The course which has produced the most winners of the Earl Of Sefton Stakes is Newmarket (Rowley), there have been a total of 9 winners of this race who ran at Newmarket (Rowley) last time out. The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Meydan, there have been a total of 3 winners of this race who ran at Meydan last time out.
The race is open to both sexes, with the Male runners having produced a total of 20 winners from a total of 150 runners, whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 6 runners.
Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Earl Of Sefton Stakes:
- Dubawi (2 Wins)
- Lope De Vega (2 Wins)
- Mull Of Kintyre (2 Wins)
- Sea The Stars (2 Wins)
Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have been disappointed with multiple attempts but no wins in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes, that stallion is Galileo who has failed to produce a winner from 5 runners.
Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Questioning in 2012, winning for John Gosden at odds of 10/1 under the guidance of William Buick. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals, there have been 7 winning favourites in the race. Ahead of the 2026 Earl Of Sefton Stakes why not head over to the best racing tipster page to see what the tipsters are backing today?
Route to the Earl Of Sefton Stakes
Many trainers will target races to use as prep races before coming to the Earl Of Sefton Stakes, these are the races which the recent winners ran in before coming here:
| Info | Last Race |
|---|---|
| 2025 - Persica Southwell (AW) - 3rd of 7 (19/2) | Winter Derby |
| 2024 - Ottoman Fleet Meydan - 8th of 14 (11/10) | Singspiel Stakes Presented by Longines |
| 2023 - Ottoman Fleet Meydan - 3rd of 12 (5/4) | Dubai Millennium Stakes |
| 2022 - Master Of The Seas Ascot - 7th of 10 (11/1) | Queen Elizabeth II Stakes |
| 2021 - My Oberon Redcar - 5th of 6 (11/8) | Guisborough Stakes |
| 2019 - Zabeel Prince Newmarket (Rowley) - 2nd of 5 (10/3) | Joel Stakes |
| 2018 - Forest Ranger Newmarket (Rowley) - 8th of 9 (7/1) | Darley Club Stakes |
| 2017 - Calderon Newmarket (Rowley) - 7th of 16 (20/1) | Old Rowley Cup |
| 2016 - Mahsoob York - 5th of 9 (9/2) | Strensall Stakes |
| 2015 - French Navy Newmarket (Rowley) - 1st of 8 (2/1) | Ben Marshall Stakes |
Other Principal races during the Craven Meeting
Remember to head to the Newmarket predictions page to see which runner the racing tipsters support in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes. Below are the other principal races that we cover during the Craven Meeting with links to each race blog as well as information for last year's winners. There are four G3s at the meeting which we cover with blogs, on Tuesday both the Earl of Sefton and the Nell Gwyn and then on Wednesday we have the Craven and Abernant.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| Earl of Sefton Stakes Tuesday | Persica (IRE) 4yo - 3/1 | Richard Hannon Ryan Moore |
| Nell Gwyn Stakes Tuesday | Zanzoun (GB) 3yo - 9/1 | John & Thady Gosden Kieran Shoemark |
| Abernant Stakes Wednesday | Sajir (IRE) 4yo - 2/1 | A Fabre Oisin Murphy |
| Craven Stakes Wednesday | Field Of Gold (IRE) 3yo - 100/30 | John & Thady Gosden Kieran Shoemark |
Article Contributor Information
We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this Earl Of Sefton Stakes Preview are at hand, Andy and James. They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for Flat Racing.
James Banting
Tipster Competition Assistant
Andy Powell
Content Editor
