2022 Earl Of Sefton Stakes Preview, Trends & Analysis

Published: Apr 17, 10:36am Last Updated: Apr 15, 11:27am Horse Racing 2 Comments 2474 Views

2022 Earl Of Sefton Stakes Preview

The Group 3 Earl of Sefton Stakes is the feature race on the last day of the Craven meeting at Newmarket. The race is open to four-year-olds or older and is run over a straight one mile and one furlong. The 1999 race was held at the July course over a slightly shorter trip.

Previously known as the Rubbing House Stakes, the race was first run back in 1971 and two years later acquired the now named Earl of Sefton Stakes. The late Sir Henry Cecil notched up an amazing seven winners in this race between 1978 & 2008. For tips on all of the races on the final day of the Craven meetings, head over to the Newmarket Tips page.

Over the last 20 renewals, it was the A Fabre trained Manduro ridden by Stephane Pasquier who has set the fastest winning time in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes, the runner won the race in a time of 1:47.26 which was set when winning the race in 2007. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer John Dunlop and jockey Pat Eddery with Right Wing who set the slowest winning time, the race-winning time was 1:54.44 in the 2001 renewal.

These are the top three quickest run Earl Of Sefton Stakes over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2007 - Manduro (1:47.26)
  • 2009 - Tazeez (1:47.83)
  • 2014 - Mull Of Killough (1:48.44)

How competitive is the Earl Of Sefton Stakes market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2001 when the race had an over-round of 108%. The race in 2002 was a race which was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 120%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Earl Of Sefton Stakes, the over-round has been 113% which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £113 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Earl Of Sefton Stakes next time out then you would have back a total of 4 winners. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -4.13. Remember to use the racing predictions along with the information on this page to find you a bet on the 2022 Earl Of Sefton Stakes.

Earl Of Sefton Stakes Past Ten Winners

Here are the past 10 winners of the Earl Of Sefton Stakes. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall which the horse came from and also the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Earl Of Sefton Stakes as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse (Drawn) Info
2021
1:52.05
My Oberon
4yo 9-0 (1 of 4) 7/1
James Doyle
William Haggas
2019
1:52.43
Zabeel Prince
6yo 9-0 (2 of 10) 9/2F
Andrea Atzeni
Roger Varian
2018
1:52.38
Forest Ranger
4yo 8-13 (3 of 8) 8/1
Tony Hamilton
Richard Fahey
2017
1:51.27
Calderon
4yo 8-13 (4 of 7) 10/1
Pat Dobbs
Richard Hannon
2016
1:53.67
Mahsoob
5yo 8-13 (10 of 9) 100/30
Paul Hanagan
John Gosden
2015
1:51.81
French Navy
7yo 8-13 (4 of 8) 3/1F
William Buick
Charlie Appleby
2014
1:48.44
Mull Of Killough
8yo 8-13 (8 of 9) 4/1
Adam Kirby
Jane Chapple-Hyam
2013
1:48.58
Mull Of Killough
7yo 9-1 (3 of 6) 3/1
George Baker
Jane Chapple-Hyam
2012
1:50.62
Questioning
4yo 8-12 (10 of 9) 10/1
William Buick
John Gosden
2011
1:49.42
Ransom Note
4yo 8-12 (8 of 7) 6/1
Michael Hills
B W Hills

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Earl Of Sefton Stakes have been based:

  • GB: 19 winners with an additional 27 placings from 150 runners
  • FR: 1 winner with an additional 2 placings from 3 runners
  • QA: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 3 runners
  • IRE: 0 winners with an additional 2 placings from 2 runners

Earl Of Sefton Stakes Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes over the last 20 renewals is John Gosden who has won the race 3 times. Those 3 winners came from Tazeez (2009), Questioning (2012) & Mahsoob (2016). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes are David Elsworth (2 wins) & Jane Chapple-Hyam (2 wins).

Here are some of the top Earl Of Sefton Stakes trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
John Gosden 6-3-5 +12.58 +7.91
David Elsworth 7-2-2 +9.33 +3.60
Jane Chapple-Hyam 4-2-3 +5.00 +4.18
Sir Michael Stoute 11-1-4 -7.50 -4.50
Charlie Appleby 7-1-3 -3.00 -2.34
Mark Johnston 5-1-2 -1.00 -0.31
Richard Fahey 3-1-2 +6.00 +3.95
Roger Varian 3-1-1 +2.50 +1.70
Richard Hannon 2-1-2 +9.00 +6.45
William Haggas 1-1-1 +7.00 +0.00

Earl Of Sefton Stakes Jockey Statistics

The leading jockey in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes over the last 20 renewals is William Buick who has won the race 2 times. Those 2 winners came from Questioning (2012) & French Navy (2015). There are two jockeys who have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes, Frankie Dettori has had a total of 11 rides to the race without recording any wins whilst Ryan Moore has had 10 rides without a winner.

Here are some of the top Earl Of Sefton Stakes jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
William Buick 5-2-4 +10.00 +6.46
Tom Queally 7-1-4 +2.00 +0.95
James Doyle 6-1-1 +2.00 -5.00
Andrea Atzeni 6-1-3 -0.50 +0.73
Adam Kirby 5-1-1 +0.00 -1.60
J F Egan 4-1-2 +0.33 +0.90
Paul Hanagan 4-1-1 +0.33 -1.00
Tony Hamilton 2-1-2 +7.00 +4.95
Frankie Dettori 11-0-0 -11.00 -10.00
Ryan Moore 10-0-2 -10.00 -8.25

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,(2,4),3,(1,2),2,1,6,1,3,3,2,3,2,2,3,1,2,2,2,(1,4,9),4

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (65%) - No bigger than 11/1
  • 20 / 20 (80%) - Ran over 1m-1m2f (Last Win)
  • 20 / 20 (80%) - Furthest placed of 1m-1m2½f
  • 20 / 20 (81%) - Carried 123-134lbs (Last Win)
  • 20 / 20 (83%) - Field of 8-18 on debut
  • 20 / 20 (85%) - Within first 7 of market
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - Made 3-33 career starts
  • 19 / 20 (80%) - Fewer than 2 season starts
  • 19 / 20 (82%) - Ran on turf (LTO)

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Newmarket racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Earl Of Sefton Stakes. If you are looking to place on a bet this race well in advance of the actual running, then there may be an ante-post market available for you to place your bet. If you are unfamiliar with this type of betting then head over to the OLBG Betting School and have a read of our Ante-Post Horse Racing article which explains how ante-post betting works.

Are you a member on OLBG? If not, then why not! With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then why share your thoughts on the Earl Of Sefton Stakes by adding a tip on the race here.

Earl Of Sefton Stakes Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +23.58 is when runners ran at Newmarket (Rowley) last time out. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had a furthest trip placed of 1m4f, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-19.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2021: Winner in 1 ()
  • 2019: Winner in 2 (10,11)
  • 2018: Winner in 3 (7,8)
  • 2017: Winner in 4 (3)
  • 2016: Winner in 10 (2,9)

The course which has produced the most winners of the Earl Of Sefton Stakes is Newmarket (Rowley), there has been a total number of 10 winners of this race who ran at Newmarket (Rowley) last time out. The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Doncaster, there has been a total number of 3 winners of this race who ran at Doncaster last time out.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 20 winners from a total of 151 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 7 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, These are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Earl Of Sefton Stakes:

  • Lope De Vega (2 Wins)
  • Mull Of Kintyre (2 Wins)

Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have disappointed with multiple attempts but no wins in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes, that stallion is Galileo who has failed to produce a winner from 5 runners.

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest priced winner was Indian Creek in 2002 when winning for David Elsworth at odds of 11/1 under the guidance of T Quinn. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 5 winning favourites in the race. Ahead of the 2022 Earl Of Sefton Stakes why not head over to the best racing tipster page to see what the tipsters are backing today.

Other Principal races at Newmarket racecourse

Here are some other notable races at Newmarket racecourse for throughout the racing season which you may be interested in.

Races in April

Races in May

Races in July

Races in September

Races in October

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