Earl Of Sefton Stakes Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (Craven Meeting)

Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.

2025 Earl Of Sefton Stakes Preview

The Group 3 Earl of Sefton Stakes is the feature race on the last day of the Craven meeting at Newmarket.

The race is open to four-year-olds or older and is run over a straight one-mile and one furlong. The 1999 race was held at the July course over a slightly shorter trip.

Previously known as the Rubbing House Stakes, the race was first run in 1971 and two years later acquired the now-named Earl of Sefton Stakes.

The late great Sir Henry Cecil notched up an impressive seven winners in this race between 1978 & 2008.

Our dedicated Newmarket tips page will not only bring you predictions from the OLBG racing tipsters for the upcoming card that includes the Earl Of Sefton Stakes but will also have predictions for each meeting at Newmarket throughout the season so be sure to head over there. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Other Principal Races at Newmarket Racecourse section for links to these.

How competitive is the Earl Of Sefton Stakes market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2021 when the race had an over-round of 108%. The race in 2010 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 117%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Earl Of Sefton Stakes, the over-round has been 113%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £113 which is bet.

Earl Of Sefton Stakes Trends:

2025 Earl Of Sefton Stakes Trends
Earl Of Sefton Stakes Trend Analysis

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Earl Of Sefton Stakes next time out then you would have backed a total of 6 winners. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -0.63. Remember to use the racing predictions along with the information on this page to find a bet on the 2025 Earl Of Sefton Stakes.

When looking over the past 20 renewals, a time of 1:47.26 was set by Manduro in 2007, which is the quickest time over that period, the runner was trained by A Fabre and ridden by Stephane Pasquier. The slowest winning time was set in 2023 when Ottoman Fleet won in a time of 1:55.17, booked to ride was William Buick on this Charlie Appleby trained runner.

These are the top three quickest-run Earl Of Sefton Stakes over the last 20 renewals:

Manduro (1:47.26) in 2007
Ottoman Fleet (1:47.51) in 2024
Tazeez (1:47.83) in 2009

Earl Of Sefton Stakes Past Winners

Here are the Earl Of Sefton Stakes past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Earl Of Sefton Stakes as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year	Horse (Drawn)	Info
2024 1:47.51	Ottoman Fleet (GB) 5yo 9-2 (8 of 9) 7/4F	William Buick Charlie Appleby (GB)
2023 1:55.17	Ottoman Fleet (GB) 4yo 9-2 (6 of 7) 6/4F	William Buick Charlie Appleby (GB)
2022 1:49.60	Master Of The Seas (IRE) 4yo 9-0 (6 of 7) 5/4F	William Buick Charlie Appleby (GB)
2021 1:52.05	My Oberon (IRE) 4yo 9-0 (1 of 4) 7/1	James Doyle William Haggas (GB)
2019 1:52.43	Zabeel Prince (IRE) 6yo 9-0 (2 of 10) 9/2F	Andrea Atzeni Roger Varian (GB)
2018 1:52.38	Forest Ranger (IRE) 4yo 8-13 (3 of 8) 8/1	Tony Hamilton Richard Fahey (GB)
2017 1:51.27	Calderon (IRE) 4yo 8-13 (4 of 7) 10/1	Pat Dobbs Richard Hannon (GB)
2016 1:53.67	Mahsoob (GB) 5yo 8-13 (10 of 9) 100/30	Paul Hanagan John Gosden (GB)
2015 1:51.81	French Navy (GB) 7yo 8-13 (4 of 8) 3/1F	William Buick Charlie Appleby (GB)
2014 1:48.44	Mull Of Killough (IRE) 8yo 8-13 (8 of 9) 4/1	Adam Kirby Jane Chapple-Hyam (GB)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Earl Of Sefton Stakes have been based:

GB: 19 winners with an additional 27 placings from 149 runners
FR: 1 winner with an additional 2 placings from 3 runners
QA: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 3 runners
IRE: 0 winners with an additional 2 placings from 2 runners

Earl Of Sefton Stakes Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes over the last 20 renewals is Charlie Appleby who has won the race four times with those four winners coming from French Navy (2015), Master Of The Seas (2022) and Ottoman Fleet (2023 & 2024). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes are John Gosden (3 wins) and Jane Chapple-Hyam (2 wins).

Here are some of the top Earl Of Sefton Stakes trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer	R-W-P	Win	EW
Charlie Appleby	11-4-6	+0.50	-0.57
John Gosden	6-3-5	+12.58	+7.91
Jane Chapple-Hyam	8-2-3	+1.00	+0.18
Sir Michael Stoute	12-1-4	-8.50	-5.50
David Elsworth	6-1-1	-1.67	-3.00
Roger Varian	5-1-1	+0.50	-0.30
Richard Fahey	3-1-2	+6.00	+3.95
A Fabre	3-1-3	-0.50	+0.94
Richard Hannon	2-1-2	+9.00	+6.45
William Haggas	1-1-1	+7.00	+0.00

Earl Of Sefton Stakes Jockey Statistics

The leading jockey in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes over the last 20 renewals is William Buick who has won the race five times with those five winners coming from Questioning (2012), French Navy (2015), Master Of The Seas (2022) and Ottoman Fleet (2023 & 2024). Two jockeys have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes, Ryan Moore has ridden a total of 12 runners to the race without recording any wins whilst Frankie Dettori has ridden 11 without a winner.

Here are some of the top Earl Of Sefton Stakes jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey	R-W-P	Win	EW
William Buick	8-5-7	+14.50	+9.23
Tom Queally	8-1-4	+1.00	-0.05
James Doyle	8-1-1	+0.00	-7.00
Andrea Atzeni	6-1-3	-0.50	+0.73
Adam Kirby	5-1-1	+0.00	-1.60
J F Egan	4-1-2	+0.33	+0.90
Pat Dobbs	2-1-2	+9.00	+6.40
Tony Hamilton	2-1-2	+7.00	+4.95
Neil Callan	2-1-2	+4.50	+4.20
Stephane Pasquier	1-1-1	+1.50	+0.90

2025 Earl Of Sefton Stakes Trends

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 2, 1, 6, 1, 3, 3, 2, 3, 2, 2, 3, 1, 2, 2, 2, (1, 4, 9), 4, 1, 1, 1

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

20 / 20 (62%) - No bigger than 10/1
20 / 20 (78%) - Within the first 6 of the market
20 / 20 (78%) - Ran over 1m - 1m2f (Last Win)
20 / 20 (83%) - Furthest Placed 1m - 1m3f
20 / 20 (83%) - Carried 122 - 134lbs (Last Win)
20 / 20 (83%) - Not on HY/GS/SLW/STD-SLW (Debut)
20 / 20 (87%) - Fewer than 1 win (90 Days)
20 / 20 (88%) - Carried 123 - 135lbs (LTO)
20 / 20 (89%) - Fewer than 7 placings (Further)
20 / 20 (89%) - Fewer than 3 wins (Going)
20 / 20 (89%) - Made 3 - 33 starts (Career)
20 / 20 (89%) - No bigger than 25/1 (LTO)
19 / 20 (81%) - Placed within last 3 starts
18 / 20 (69%) - Achieved a TS of 95+ (Career)
17 / 20 (68%) - Held an OR of 106+

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Newmarket racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Earl Of Sefton Stakes. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles like How to Find Winners - 101 Tips to Choose A Winning Horse Racing Bet.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Earl Of Sefton Stakes by adding a tip on the race here.

Earl Of Sefton Stakes Trend Analysis

The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +18.58 is when runners ran over 1m when last winning. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 1 win in the past 90 days, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-20.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

2024: Winner in 8 (2,4) [9 Runners]
2023: Winner in 6 (2) [7 Runners]
2022: Winner in 6 (4) [7 Runners]
2021: Winner in 1 [4 Runners]
2019: Winner in 2 (10,11) [10 Runners]

The course which has produced the most winners of the Earl Of Sefton Stakes is Newmarket (Rowley), there has been a total number of 9 winners of this race who ran at Newmarket (Rowley) last time out. The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Meydan, there has been a total number of 3 winners of this race who ran at Meydan last time out.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 20 winners from a total of 151 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 6 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Earl Of Sefton Stakes:

Dubawi (2 Wins)
Lope De Vega (2 Wins)
Mull Of Kintyre (2 Wins)
Sea The Stars (2 Wins)

Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have been disappointed with multiple attempts but no wins in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes, that stallion is Galileo who has failed to produce a winner from 5 runners.

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Questioning in 2012, winning for John Gosden at odds of 10/1 under the guidance of William Buick. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there have been 7 winning favourites in the race. Ahead of the 2025 Earl Of Sefton Stakes why not head over to the best racing tipster page to see what the tipsters are backing today?

Other Principal races at Newmarket racecourse

Here are some other notable races at the Newmarket racecourse throughout the racing season that you may be interested in.

Races in April (Craven Meeting)

Races in May (Guineas Festival)

Races in July (July Festival)

Races in September (Cambridgeshire Meeting)

Races in October

Sun Chariot Stakes

Races in October (Future Champions Festival)

Article Contributor Information

We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this Earl Of Sefton Stakes Preview are at hand, Andy and James. They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for Flat Racing.

James Banting

Tipster competition assistant

James Banting, a passionate horse racing enthusiast and aficionado, brings a wealth of experience to OLBG, having attended numerous race meetings over the years. His background working with the Jockey Club provides him with a unique insider's perspective on the industry.

Andy Powell

Content editor

Andy, a seasoned horse racing expert with over 15 years of experience, possesses a comprehensive understanding of the sport, from delving into complex statistical data for flat racing in the UK and Ireland to crafting insightful flat racing blogs for OLBG.

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