Earl Of Sefton Stakes Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (Craven Meeting)

Updated: 2998 Horse Racing

We look at the Earl Of Sefton Stakes ahead of the next renewal, a race contested over 1m1f at Newmarket during the Craven Meeting to see which runners, trainers and jockeys have previously won the race and which trends you can use to find the winner of the Earl Of Sefton Stakes.

Earl Of Sefton Stakes Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (Craven Meeting)
Andy Powell Content Editor

Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.

2024 Earl Of Sefton Stakes Preview

The Group 3 Earl of Sefton Stakes is the feature race on the last day of the Craven meeting at Newmarket. The race is open to four-year-olds or older and is run over a straight one-mile and one furlong. The 1999 race was held at the July course over a slightly shorter trip.

Previously known as the Rubbing House Stakes, the race was first run in 1971 and two years later acquired the now-named Earl of Sefton Stakes. The late great Sir Henry Cecil notched up an impressive seven winners in this race between 1978 & 2008.

Earl Of Sefton Stakes Content:

Our dedicated Newmarket tips page will not only bring you predictions from the OLBG racing tipsters for the upcoming card that includes the Earl Of Sefton Stakes but will also have predictions for each meeting at Newmarket throughout the season so be sure to head over there.

Over the last 20 renewals, it was the A Fabre trained Manduro ridden by Stephane Pasquier who set the fastest winning time in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes, the runner won the race in a time of 1:47.26 was set when winning the race in 2007. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer Charlie Appleby and jockey William Buick with Ottoman Fleet who set the slowest winning time, the race-winning time was 1:55.17 in the 2023 renewal.

These are the top three quickest-run Earl Of Sefton Stakes over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2007 - Manduro (1:47.26)
  • 2009 - Tazeez (1:47.83)
  • 2014 - Mull Of Killough (1:48.44)

How competitive is the Earl Of Sefton Stakes market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2021 when the race had an over-round of 108%. The race in 2010 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 117%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Earl Of Sefton Stakes, the over-round has been 113%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £113 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Earl Of Sefton Stakes next time out then you would have backed a total of 5 winners. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -2.63. Before placing your bet on the 2024 Earl Of Sefton Stakes see which other runners today are being backed on the racing predictions page.

Earl Of Sefton Stakes Past Winners

Here are the Earl Of Sefton Stakes past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and also the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Earl Of Sefton Stakes as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse (Drawn) Info
2023
1:55.17
Ottoman Fleet (GB)
4yo 9-2 (6 of 7) 6/4F
William Buick
Charlie Appleby (GB)
2022
1:49.60
Master Of The Seas (IRE)
4yo 9-0 (6 of 7) 5/4F
William Buick
Charlie Appleby (GB)
2021
1:52.05
My Oberon (IRE)
4yo 9-0 (1 of 4) 7/1
James Doyle
William Haggas (GB)
2019
1:52.43
Zabeel Prince (IRE)
6yo 9-0 (2 of 10) 9/2F
Andrea Atzeni
Roger Varian (GB)
2018
1:52.38
Forest Ranger (IRE)
4yo 8-13 (3 of 8) 8/1
Tony Hamilton
Richard Fahey (GB)
2017
1:51.27
Calderon (IRE)
4yo 8-13 (4 of 7) 10/1
Pat Dobbs
Richard Hannon (GB)
2016
1:53.67
Mahsoob (GB)
5yo 8-13 (10 of 9) 100/30
Paul Hanagan
John Gosden (GB)
2015
1:51.81
French Navy (GB)
7yo 8-13 (4 of 8) 3/1F
William Buick
Charlie Appleby (GB)
2014
1:48.44
Mull Of Killough (IRE)
8yo 8-13 (8 of 9) 4/1
Adam Kirby
Jane Chapple-Hyam (GB)
2013
1:48.58
Mull Of Killough (IRE)
7yo 9-1 (3 of 6) 3/1
George Baker
Jane Chapple-Hyam (GB)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Earl Of Sefton Stakes have been based:

  • GB: 19 winners with an additional 26 placings from 147 runners
  • FR: 1 winner with an additional 2 placings from 3 runners
  • QA: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 3 runners
  • IRE: 0 winners with an additional 2 placings from 2 runners

Earl Of Sefton Stakes Trainer Statistics

There are two leading trainers in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes over the last 20 renewals with both Charlie Appleby & John Gosden who have both won the race 3 times. Charlie Appleby winners have been with French Navy (2015), Master Of The Seas (2022) & Ottoman Fleet (2023). John Gosden winners have been with Tazeez (2009), Questioning (2012) & Mahsoob (2016). The only other trainer to have recorded multiple wins in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes is Jane Chapple-Hyam (2 wins).

Here are some of the top Earl Of Sefton Stakes trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
Charlie Appleby 10-3-5 -1.25 -1.62
John Gosden 6-3-5 +12.58 +7.91
Jane Chapple-Hyam 6-2-3 +3.00 +2.18
Sir Michael Stoute 11-1-4 -7.50 -4.50
David Elsworth 6-1-1 -1.67 -3.00
Mark Johnston 5-1-2 -1.00 -0.31
Roger Varian 4-1-1 +1.50 +0.70
Richard Fahey 3-1-2 +6.00 +3.95
A Fabre 3-1-3 -0.50 +0.94
Richard Hannon 2-1-2 +9.00 +6.45

Earl Of Sefton Stakes Jockey Statistics

The leading jockey in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes over the last 20 renewals is William Buick who has won the race 4 times. Those 4 winners came from Questioning (2012), French Navy (2015), Master Of The Seas (2022) & Ottoman Fleet (2023). There are two jockeys who have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes, Frankie Dettori has had a total of 12 rides to the race without recording any wins whilst Ryan Moore has had 11 rides without a winner.

Here are some of the top Earl Of Sefton Stakes jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
William Buick 7-4-6 +12.75 +8.18
Tom Queally 7-1-4 +2.00 +0.95
James Doyle 7-1-1 +1.00 -6.00
Andrea Atzeni 6-1-3 -0.50 +0.73
Adam Kirby 5-1-1 +0.00 -1.60
J F Egan 4-1-2 +0.33 +0.90
Paul Hanagan 4-1-1 +0.33 -1.00
Pat Dobbs 2-1-2 +9.00 +6.40
Tony Hamilton 2-1-2 +7.00 +4.95
Neil Callan 1-1-1 +5.50 +3.30

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): (1, 2), 2, 1, 6, 1, 3, 3, 2, 3, 2, 2, 3, 1, 2, 2, 2, (1, 4, 9), 4, 1, 1

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (63%) - No bigger than 10/1
  • 20 / 20 (79%) - Within the first 6 of market
  • 20 / 20 (79%) - Ran over 1mf - 1m2f (Last Win)
  • 20 / 20 (82%) - Carried 123 - 134lbs (Last Win)
  • 20 / 20 (83%) - Furthest Placed 1mf - 1m3f
  • 20 / 20 (85%) - Fewer than 1 win (90 Days)
  • 20 / 20 (85%) - Not in DEU/IRL/ITA/QAT/SCO/ZAF/TUR/UAE (Last Win)
  • 20 / 20 (86%) - Fewer than 6 placings (Further)
  • 20 / 20 (88%) - Fewer than 3 wins (Going)
  • 20 / 20 (88%) - Carried 123 - 135lbs (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - Made 3 - 33 starts (Career)
  • 19 / 20 (82%) - Placed within last 3 starts
  • 19 / 20 (87%) - Not in a G2/G3/LST/Cl3 (Debut)
  • 18 / 20 (69%) - Achieved a TS of 95+ (Career)
  • 18 / 20 (88%) - No more than -3yrs (Vs Max Age)

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Newmarket racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Earl Of Sefton Stakes. Maybe you are looking to back something in this race on the tote, but you are not sure of the process or how the tote works, No problem! We have an article which is dedicated to The Tote for you to read which explains everything you need to know! Be sure to check out the other articles too in the OLBG Betting School.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Earl Of Sefton Stakes by adding a tip on the race here.

Earl Of Sefton Stakes Trend Analysis

The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +17.58 is when runners ran over 1m when last winning. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 1 win in the past 90 days, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-22.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2023: Winner in 6 (2) [7 Runners]
  • 2022: Winner in 6 (4) [7 Runners]
  • 2021: Winner in 1 [4 Runners]
  • 2019: Winner in 2 (10,11) [10 Runners]
  • 2018: Winner in 3 (7,8) [8 Runners]

The course which has produced the most winners of the Earl Of Sefton Stakes is Newmarket (Rowley), there has been a total number of 9 winners of this race who ran at Newmarket (Rowley) last time out.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 20 winners from a total of 149 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 6 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Earl Of Sefton Stakes:

  • Dubawi (2 Wins)
  • Lope De Vega (2 Wins)
  • Mull Of Kintyre (2 Wins)

Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have been disappointed with multiple attempts but no wins in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes, that stallion is Galileo who has failed to produce a winner from 5 runners.

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Questioning in 2012, winning for John Gosden at odds of 10/1 under the guidance of William Buick. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 7 winning favourites in the race. Whilst we wait for the 2024 Earl Of Sefton Stakes remember you can get daily racing predictions from the top racing tipsters on the best racing tipsters page.

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