Bahrain Trophy Stakes Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (July Festival)

Updated: 548 Horse Racing

If you are a fan of horse racing trends then this preview of the Bahrain Trophy Stakes will be perfect for you! Not only do we look at the trends but we look at past winners as well as trainer and jockey records for the Bahrain Trophy Stakes, a race run over 1m5f at Newmarket during the July Festival.

Bahrain Trophy Stakes Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (July Festival)
Andy Powell Content Editor

Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.

2024 Bahrain Trophy Stakes Preview

Scheduled to take place in July of each year at the Newmarket Racecourse during the July Festival is the Bahrain Trophy, a Group 3 race that is open to runners who are aged three years old, the race is run over a distance of one mile and five furlongs and can be used as a stepping stone to the St Leger.

Bahrain Trophy Stakes Information:

Our dedicated Newmarket tips page will not only bring you predictions from the OLBG racing tipsters for the upcoming card that includes the Bahrain Trophy Stakes but will also have predictions for each meeting at Newmarket throughout the season so be sure to head over there. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Other Principal Races at Newmarket Racecourse section for links to these.

How competitive is the Bahrain Trophy Stakes market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2004 when the race had an over-round of 106%. The race in 2019 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 123%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Bahrain Trophy Stakes, the over-round has been 112%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £112 which is bet.

Bahrain Trophy Stakes Trends:

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Bahrain Trophy Stakes next time out then you would have backed a total of 3 winners. Backing all 18 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of +5.60. Ahead of the 2024 Bahrain Trophy Stakes why not head over to the racing predictions for tips on other races today?

Over the last 20 renewals, it was the David Simcock trained Spanish Mission ridden by Jamie Spencer who set the fastest winning time in the Bahrain Trophy Stakes, the runner won the race in a time of 2:39.96 was set when winning the race in 2019. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer Peter Chapple-Hyam and jockey Alan Munro with Mr Vegas who set the slowest winning time, the race-winning time was 3:19.23 in the 2005 renewal.

These are the top three quickest-run Bahrain Trophy Stakes over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2019 - Spanish Mission (2:39.96)
  • 2009 - Kite Wood (2:42.01)
  • 2007 - Tranquil Tiger (2:42.11)

Bahrain Trophy Stakes Past Winners

Here are the Bahrain Trophy Stakes past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and also the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Bahrain Trophy Stakes as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse (Drawn) Info
2023
2:47.35
Castle Way (GB)
3yo 9-3 (6 of 6) 9/2
William Buick
Charlie Appleby (GB)
2022
2:43.17
Deauville Legend (IRE)
3yo 9-3 (3 of 6) 11/2
Daniel Muscutt
James Ferguson (GB)
2021
2:46.77
Yibir (GB)
3yo 9-1 (3 of 5) 6/4F
James Doyle
Charlie Appleby (GB)
2020
2:44.92
Al Aasy (IRE)
3yo 9-1 (5 of 6) 3/1
Jim Crowley
William Haggas (GB)
2019
2:39.96
Spanish Mission (USA)
3yo 9-1 (1 of 9) 13/2
Jamie Spencer
David Simcock (GB)
2018
2:44.78
Wells Farhh Go (IRE)
3yo 9-1 (4 of 8) 7/1
David Allan
Tim Easterby (GB)
2017
2:44.74
Raheen House (IRE)
3yo 9-1 (1 of 9) 7/2
Jamie Spencer
Brian Meehan (GB)
2016
2:44.39
Housesofparliament (IRE)
3yo 9-1 (2 of 9) 9/2
Ryan Moore
A P O'Brien (IRE)
2015
2:42.99
Mr Singh (GB)
3yo 9-1 (4 of 5) 11/10F
Frankie Dettori
John Gosden (GB)
2014
2:46.29
Hartnell (GB)
3yo 9-1 (4 of 6) 9/4
Joe Fanning
Mark Johnston (GB)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Bahrain Trophy Stakes have been based:

  • GB: 19 winners with an additional 23 placings from 127 runners
  • IRE: 1 winner with an additional 3 placings from 8 runners

Bahrain Trophy Stakes Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the Bahrain Trophy Stakes over the last 20 renewals is John Gosden who has won the race four times with those four winners coming from Masked Marvel (2011), Shantaram (2012), Feel Like Dancing (2013) and Mr Singh (2015). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Bahrain Trophy Stakes are Mark Johnston (2 wins) and Charlie Appleby (2 wins).

Here are some of the top Bahrain Trophy Stakes trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
John Gosden 11-4-4 +1.35 -1.85
Mark Johnston 8-2-4 -1.87 -0.11
Charlie Appleby 6-2-3 +2.00 +0.65
Mick Channon 11-1-3 -7.00 -1.22
Andrew Balding 9-1-2 +8.00 +2.60
A P O'Brien 7-1-4 -1.50 -1.33
Brian Meehan 7-1-2 -2.50 -2.52
William Haggas 6-1-2 -2.00 -2.31
Saeed bin Suroor 5-1-2 -2.00 -1.49
David Simcock 4-1-1 +3.50 +0.90

Bahrain Trophy Stakes Jockey Statistics

The leading jockey in the Bahrain Trophy Stakes over the last 20 renewals is William Buick who has won the race four times with those four winners coming from Donegal (2008), Shantaram (2012), Feel Like Dancing (2013) and Castle Way (2023). Other jockeys who have recorded multiple wins in the Bahrain Trophy Stakes are Frankie Dettori (3 wins) and Jamie Spencer (2 wins).

Here are some of the top Bahrain Trophy Stakes jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
William Buick 10-4-5 +19.75 +10.52
Frankie Dettori 8-3-5 -0.02 +0.12
Jamie Spencer 7-2-2 +5.00 +1.00
Ryan Moore 16-1-5 -10.50 -9.58
James Doyle 8-1-3 -5.50 -0.95
Jim Crowley 5-1-2 -1.00 -0.74
Joe Fanning 2-1-1 +1.25 +0.41
David Allan 1-1-1 +7.00 +4.20
Daniel Muscutt 1-1-1 +5.50 +3.44
Neil Callan 4-0-0 -4.00 -4.00

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 2, 1, 3, 1, 3, 1, 1, (1, 2), 5, 5, (2, 3), 1, 8, 9, 5, 8, 2, 1, 4, 2

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (67%) - An OR no less than 81 (Last 3)
  • 20 / 20 (69%) - Had 2 - 7 placings (Non-Hcps)
  • 20 / 20 (74%) - Carried 123 - 131lbs (Last Win)
  • 20 / 20 (76%) - Held an OR of 81+ (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (79%) - No bigger than 16/1
  • 20 / 20 (82%) - Achieved an RPR of 83+ (Last Win)
  • 20 / 20 (82%) - Achieved a TS of 73+ (Last 3)
  • 20 / 20 (83%) - No bigger than 28/1 (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (84%) - Carried 123 - 131lbs (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (85%) - Had 2 - 8 placings (Career)
  • 20 / 20 (85%) - Highest Run is not Cl3-5
  • 20 / 20 (86%) - Highest Placed is not Cl5-6
  • 20 / 20 (87%) - Not over 1m6f (LTO)
  • 19 / 20 (59%) - Within the first 4 of market
  • 18 / 20 (83%) - No bigger than 20/1 (Career Place)

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Newmarket racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Bahrain Trophy Stakes. if you are unaware of what trends and statistics are, how they can be used etc then head over to the OLBG Betting School and read this Stats And Trends article which will make everything much clearer.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Bahrain Trophy Stakes by adding a tip on the race here.

Bahrain Trophy Stakes Trend Analysis

The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +7.29 is when runners had 1 career place on the going. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 1 career place in Non-Handicap, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-39.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2023: Winner in 6 (1) [6 Runners]
  • 2022: Winner in 3 (5) [6 Runners]
  • 2021: Winner in 3 (2) [5 Runners]
  • 2020: Winner in 5 (7) [6 Runners]
  • 2019: Winner in 1 (6,5) [9 Runners]

The course which has produced the most winners of the Bahrain Trophy Stakes is Ascot, there has been a total number of 11 winners of this race who ran at Ascot last time out.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 20 winners from a total of 121 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 14 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Bahrain Trophy Stakes:

  • Galileo (4 Wins)
  • Sea The Stars (3 Wins)
  • Montjeu (2 Wins)

Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have been disappointed with multiple attempts but no wins in the Bahrain Trophy Stakes, that stallion is Nathaniel who has failed to produce a winner from 5 runners.

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Donegal in 2008, winning for Andrew Balding at odds of 16/1 under the guidance of William Buick. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 7 winning favourites in the race. Whilst we wait for the 2024 Bahrain Trophy Stakes remember you can get daily racing predictions from the top racing tipsters on the best racing tipsters page.

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