Falmouth Stakes Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (July Festival)

Updated: 855 Horse Racing

If you are a fan of horse racing trends then this preview of the Falmouth Stakes will be perfect for you! Not only do we look at the trends but we look at past winners as well as trainer and jockey records for the Falmouth Stakes, a race run over 1m at Newmarket during the July Festival.

Falmouth Stakes Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (July Festival)
Andy Powell Content Editor

Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.

2024 Falmouth Stakes Preview

Scheduled to take place during the July Festival each year at the Newmarket racecourse is the Falmouth Stakes, a Group 1 race that is open to fillies and mares only that are aged three or older. The race is run over a straight mile where three-year-old runners receive a nine-pound weight allowance, running off 8-12 vs the 9-7 carried by the older runners.

The race was established in 1911 when it was originally restricted to three-year-old runners only, the race is named after Evelyn Boscawen who was the 6th Viscount Falmouth and best known for his breeding of racehorses which included twice a winning breeder of the Epsom Derby.

Falmouth Stakes Information:

Our dedicated Newmarket tips page will not only bring you predictions from the OLBG racing tipsters for the upcoming card that includes the Falmouth Stakes but will also have predictions for each meeting at Newmarket throughout the season so be sure to head over there. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Other Principal races during the Newmarket July Festival section for links to these.

How competitive is the Falmouth Stakes market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2004 when the race had an over-round of 110%. The race in 2021 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 119%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Falmouth Stakes, the over-round has been 114%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £114 which is bet.

Falmouth Stakes Trends:

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Falmouth Stakes next time out then you would have backed a total of 6 winners. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of +3.35. Remember to use the racing predictions along with the information on this page to find a bet on the 2024 Falmouth Stakes.

The runner that holds the record over the past 20 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2012 renewal when Giofra from A De Royer-Dupre under the guidance of Christophe Soumillon, won in a time of 1:42.14, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Alice Springs, trained by A P O'Brien and ridden by Ryan Moore set the quickest time of 1:34.42 in the 2016 renewal.

These are the top three quickest-run Falmouth Stakes over the last 20 renewals:

  1. Alice Springs (1:34.42) in 2016
  2. Veracious (1:35.89) in 2019
  3. Snow Lantern (1:35.93) in 2021
What the expert says...
Two races have been responsible for thirteen of the last nineteen winners, both run at Royal Ascot and those are the Coronation Stakes (x8) and the Duke of Cambridge Stakes (x5). Overall, Royal Ascot has supplied ten of the last eleven winners.

Andy Powell - Horse Racing Betting Expert - OLBG.com

Falmouth Stakes Past Winners

Here are the Falmouth Stakes' past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and the total number of runners in the race. The horse's trainer at the time of winning the Falmouth Stakes and the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

YearHorse (Drawn)Info
2023
1:39.52
Nashwa (GB)
4yo 9-9 (4 of 8) 4/1
Hollie Doyle
John & Thady Gosden (GB)
2022
1:36.03
Prosperous Voyage (IRE)
3yo 9-0 (1 of 5) 16/1
Rob Hornby
Ralph Beckett (GB)
2021
1:35.93
Snow Lantern (GB)
3yo 8-12 (13 of 13) 6/1
Sean Levey
Richard Hannon (GB)
2020
1:40.14
Nazeef (GB)
4yo 9-7 (4 of 6) 9/2
Jim Crowley
John Gosden (GB)
2019
1:35.89
Veracious (GB)
4yo 9-7 (4 of 6) 6/1
Oisin Murphy
Sir Michael Stoute (GB)
2018
1:37.45
Alpha Centauri (IRE)
3yo 8-12 (1 of 7) 4/9F
Colm O'Donoghue
Mrs John Harrington (IRE)
2017
1:36.01
Roly Poly (USA)
3yo 8-12 (3 of 7) 6/4F
Ryan Moore
A P O'Brien (IRE)
2016
1:34.42
Alice Springs (IRE)
3yo 8-12 (4 of 7) 5/2
Ryan Moore
A P O'Brien (IRE)
2015
1:42.05
Amazing Maria (IRE)
4yo 9-7 (4 of 7) 17/2
James Doyle
David O'Meara (GB)
2014
1:41.96
Integral (GB)
4yo 9-7 (5 of 7) 15/8F
Ryan Moore
Sir Michael Stoute (GB)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Falmouth Stakes have been based:

  • GB: 15 winners with an additional 21 placings from 114 runners
  • IRE: 3 winners with an additional 2 placings from 20 runners
  • FR: 2 winners with an additional 2 placings from 14 runners
  • SAF: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 2 runners
  • GER: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 2 runners
  • NZ: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner

Falmouth Stakes Trainer Statistics

Here are the Falmouth Stakes trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals for trainers who have entries in the 2024 renewal, those not listed have not had a runner. (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

TrainerR-W-PWinEW
John & Thady Gosden4-1-2+1.00-0.08
Roger Varian3-0-1-3.00-0.50
Joseph Patrick O'Brien1-0-0-1.00-1.00

Falmouth Stakes Jockey Statistics

The leading jockey in the Falmouth Stakes over the last 20 renewals is Ryan Moore who has won the race three times with those three winners coming from Integral (2014), Alice Springs (2016) and Roly Poly (2017).

Here are the Falmouth Stakes jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals for jockeys who have entries in the 2024 renewal, those not listed have not had a runner. (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

JockeyR-W-PWinEW
Ryan Moore13-3-6-4.12-3.22
William Buick8-1-2-4.00-6.13
James Doyle3-1-2+6.50+4.23
Oisin Murphy2-1-2+5.00+3.50
David Egan2-0-0-2.00-2.00

Falmouth Stakes Trend Analysis

The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +75.94 is when runners ran on Good To Firm ground on debut. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 5 career wins in Flat (Turf) races, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-22.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2023: Winner in 4 (6,8) [8 Runners]
  • 2022: Winner in 1 (5) [5 Runners]
  • 2021: Winner in 13 (8,9) [13 Runners]
  • 2020: Winner in 4 (5) [6 Runners]
  • 2019: Winner in 4 (2) [6 Runners]

The course which has produced the most winners of the Falmouth Stakes is Ascot, there has been a total number of 14 winners of this race who ran at Ascot last time out.

Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Falmouth Stakes:

  • Frankel (3 Wins)
  • Marju (2 Wins)
  • Mastercraftsman (2 Wins)

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Falmouth Stakes despite multiple attempts:

  • Pivotal (0 Wins from 8 runners)
  • Dubawi (0 Wins from 6 runners)
  • Cape Cross (0 Wins from 5 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Rajeem in 2006, winning for Clive Brittain at odds of 50/1 under the guidance of Kerrin McEvoy. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there have been 5 winning favourites in the race. Remember to use the best racing tipsters along with the information on this page to find you a bet on the 2024 Falmouth Stakes.

Falmouth Stakes Trend Shortlist

Newmarket will host the 2024 renewal of the Falmouth Stakes which will be run at 3:35 pm on Friday 12th July 2024 and these are the runners who perform best based on the trends along with the trainer and jockey and their record in the race (Runs-Wins-Places Win LSP / EW LSP):

  • 15/15 Porta Fortuna (7/4)
    • Donnacha Aidan O'Brien (0-0-0 0.00 / 0.00)
    • Ryan Moore (13-3-6 -4.12 / -3.22)
  • 14/15 Running Lion (3/1)
    • John & Thady Gosden (4-1-2 +1.00 / -0.08)
    • Oisin Murphy (2-1-2 +5.00 / +3.50)
  • 11/15 Rogue Millennium (7/1)
    • Joseph Patrick O'Brien (1-0-0 -1.00 / -1.00)
    • William Buick (8-1-2 -4.00 / -6.13)
  • 11/15 Sirona (12/1)
    • David Menuisier (0-0-0 0.00 / 0.00)
    • Rossa Ryan (0-0-0 0.00 / 0.00)
  • 10/15 Jabaara (12/1)
    • Roger Varian (3-0-1 -3.00 / -0.50)
    • James Doyle (3-1-2 +6.50 / +4.23)
  • 10/15 A Lilac Rolla (7/2)
    • P Twomey (0-0-0 0.00 / 0.00)
    • W J Lee (0-0-0 0.00 / 0.00)
  • 8/15 Magical Sunset (33/1)
    • Adrian Murray (0-0-0 0.00 / 0.00)
    • David Egan (2-0-0 -2.00 / -2.00)

*Trainer & Jockey numbers are Runs-Wins-Places Win LSP / EW LSP, Runners, Odds and Trends Passed/Failed correct at the time of posting (12:30 pm Wednesday 10th July 2024), if no odds were available at the time of posting then forecasted odds are used.

Running Lion won the Duke of Cambridge Stakes last time out and a total of 4 previous winners of that race from a total of 19 runners went on to win next time out, backing them all would have returned an LSP of +0.48.

Porta Fortuna won the Coronation Stakes last time out and a total of 5 previous winners of that race from a total of 18 runners went on to win next time out, backing them all would have returned an LSP of +1.93.

If you are not a fan of the traditional trends above and you want a more in-depth way of using the Falmouth Stakes trends from previous renewals then we have created the scoring trends, these are calculated by looking at over 100 factors including aspects of breeding, horse factors, things like runs, wins and places during their career, under certain circumstances like over the trip or on the ground and many more.

Using all of this information we can assign each horse a score based on how past runners in the Falmouth Stakes performed when running under the same factors, we assign 80% of the score for the win statistics and 20% of the score for place statistics. Here are the top two scoring runners in the 2024 Falmouth Stakes based on the information above, why not compare those to what the OLBG racing tipsters are tipping?

Here are the top 2 scorers at the time of posting (12:30 pm Wednesday 10th July 2024):

  • 🥇 Porta Fortuna (7/4)
    • Donnacha Aidan O'Brien (0-0-0 0.00 / 0.00)
    • Ryan Moore (13-3-6 -4.12 / -3.22)
  • 🥈 Rogue Millennium (7/1)
    • Joseph Patrick O'Brien (1-0-0 -1.00 / -1.00)
    • William Buick (8-1-2 -4.00 / -6.13)

Others: Running Lion, Magical Sunset, A Lilac Rolla, Jabaara and Sirona.

Other Principal races during the Newmarket July Festival

Remember to head to the Newmarket predictions page to see which runner the racing tipsters support in the Falmouth Stakes. Below are the other principal races that we cover during the July Festival with links to each race blog as well as information for last year's winners.

Friday at the July Festival

The highlight on the Friday, known as Ladies Day is the Princess of Wales's Stakes, a group 2 contested over one mile and four furlongs.

RaceLast WinnerInfo
13:50 Newmarket
Bahrain Trophy Stakes
Castle Way (GB)
3yo - 9/2
Charlie Appleby
William Buick
14:25 Newmarket
July Stakes
Jasour (GB)
2yo - 16/1
Clive Cox
Jim Crowley
15:00 Newmarket
bet365 Sprint Handicap
Quinault (GER)
3yo - 4/1
Stuart Williams
Connor Planas
15:35 Newmarket
Princess of Wales's Stakes
Israr (GB)
4yo - 7/2
John & Thady Gosden
Jim Crowley

Saturday at the July Festival

Festival Friday as it is known features the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes which is part of the British Champion Series and is run over a mile.

RaceLast WinnerInfo
13:50 Newmarket
bet365 Handicap
Killybegs Warrior (IRE)
3yo - 20/1
Charlie Johnston
Kevin Stott
14:25 Newmarket
Duchess of Cambridge Stakes
Persian Dreamer (USA)
2yo - 5/1
Dominic Ffrench Davis
Kevin Stott
15:35 Newmarket
Falmouth Stakes
Nashwa (GB)
4yo - 4/1
John & Thady Gosden
Hollie Doyle

Sunday at the July Festival

As the name would indicate, 'July Cup Day', the main race on the final day of the July Festival is the July Cup, another race which is part of the British Champion Series, this race is contested over six furlongs.

RaceLast WinnerInfo
14:50 Newmarket
bet365 Mile Handicap
Highbank (IRE)
3yo - 11/1
Charlie Appleby
William Buick
15:25 Newmarket
Superlative Stakes
City Of Troy (USA)
2yo - 4/6
A P O'Brien
Ryan Moore
16:00 Newmarket
Bunbury Cup
Biggles (GB)
6yo - 5/1
Ralph Beckett
Ryan Moore
16:35 Newmarket
July Cup
Shaquille (GB)
3yo - 5/2
Julie Camacho
Rossa Ryan

Article Contributor Information

We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this Falmouth Stakes Preview are at hand, Andy and Darren. They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for Flat Racing.

Darren Brett

Darren Brett

Tipster competition manager

Darren has worked in the horse racing industry for decades bringing to OLBG for the last 20 years a wealth of knowledge, creating much of our content on these sports. Darren also manages our Grand National Guide and is the go-to font of knowledge for the world's greatest steeplechase.
Andy Powell

Andy Powell

Content editor

Andy, a seasoned horse racing expert with over 15 years of experience, possesses a comprehensive understanding of the sport, from delving into complex statistical data for flat racing in the UK and Ireland to crafting insightful flat racing blogs for OLBG.

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