Falmouth Stakes Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (July Festival)

Updated: 708 Horse Racing

If you are a fan of horse racing trends then this preview of the Falmouth Stakes will be perfect for you! Not only do we look at the trends but we look at past winners as well as trainer and jockey records for the Falmouth Stakes, a race run over 1m at Newmarket during the July Festival.

Falmouth Stakes Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (July Festival)
Andy Powell Content Editor

Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.

2024 Falmouth Stakes Preview

Scheduled to take place during the July Festival each year at the Newmarket racecourse is the Falmouth Stakes, a Group 1 race that is open to fillies and mares only that are aged three or older. The race is run over a straight mile where three-year-old runners receive a nine-pound weight allowance, running off 8-12 vs the 9-7 carried by the older runners.

The race was established in 1911 when it was originally restricted to three-year-old runners only, the race is named after Evelyn Boscawen who was the 6th Viscount Falmouth and best known for his breeding of racehorses which included twice a winning breeder of the Epsom Derby.

Falmouth Stakes Information:

If you are interested in other predictions at Newmarket then head over to the Newmarket tips page to see which runners are being supported by the OLBG racing tipsters and also compare those predictions to the runners that make the trend shortlist when added below. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Other Principal Races at Newmarket Racecourse section for links to these.

How competitive is the Falmouth Stakes market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2004 when the race had an over-round of 110%. The race in 2021 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 119%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Falmouth Stakes, the over-round has been 114%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £114 which is bet.

Falmouth Stakes Trends:

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Falmouth Stakes next time out then you would have backed a total of 6 winners. Backing all 18 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of +4.35. Whilst we wait for the 2024 Falmouth Stakes remember you can get daily racing predictions from the expert tipsters on the racing predictions page.

The runner that holds the record over the past 20 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2012 renewal when Giofra from A De Royer-Dupre under the guidance of Christophe Soumillon, won in a time of 1:42.14, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Alice Springs, trained by A P O'Brien and ridden by Ryan Moore set the quickest time of 1:34.42 in the 2016 renewal.

These are the top three quickest-run Falmouth Stakes over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2016 - Alice Springs (1:34.42)
  • 2019 - Veracious (1:35.89)
  • 2021 - Snow Lantern (1:35.93)

Falmouth Stakes Past Winners

Here are the Falmouth Stakes past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and also the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Falmouth Stakes as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse (Drawn) Info
2023
1:39.52
Nashwa (GB)
4yo 9-9 (4 of 8) 4/1
Hollie Doyle
John & Thady Gosden (GB)
2022
1:36.03
Prosperous Voyage (IRE)
3yo 9-0 (1 of 5) 16/1
Rob Hornby
Ralph Beckett (GB)
2021
1:35.93
Snow Lantern (GB)
3yo 8-12 (13 of 13) 6/1
Sean Levey
Richard Hannon (GB)
2020
1:40.14
Nazeef (GB)
4yo 9-7 (4 of 6) 9/2
Jim Crowley
John Gosden (GB)
2019
1:35.89
Veracious (GB)
4yo 9-7 (4 of 6) 6/1
Oisin Murphy
Sir Michael Stoute (GB)
2018
1:37.45
Alpha Centauri (IRE)
3yo 8-12 (1 of 7) 4/9F
Colm O'Donoghue
Mrs John Harrington (IRE)
2017
1:36.01
Roly Poly (USA)
3yo 8-12 (3 of 7) 6/4F
Ryan Moore
A P O'Brien (IRE)
2016
1:34.42
Alice Springs (IRE)
3yo 8-12 (4 of 7) 5/2
Ryan Moore
A P O'Brien (IRE)
2015
1:42.05
Amazing Maria (IRE)
4yo 9-7 (4 of 7) 17/2
James Doyle
David O'Meara (GB)
2014
1:41.96
Integral (GB)
4yo 9-7 (5 of 7) 15/8F
Ryan Moore
Sir Michael Stoute (GB)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Falmouth Stakes have been based:

  • GB: 15 winners with an additional 21 placings from 114 runners
  • IRE: 3 winners with an additional 2 placings from 20 runners
  • FR: 2 winners with an additional 2 placings from 14 runners
  • SAF: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 2 runners
  • GER: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 2 runners
  • NZ: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner

Falmouth Stakes Trainer Statistics

There are multiple leading trainers in the Falmouth Stakes over the last 20 renewals with all of John Gosden, Sir Michael Stoute, A P O'Brien and James Fanshawe having all won the race two times. John Gosden winners have been with Elusive Kate (2013) and Nazeef (2020). Sir Michael Stoute's winners have been Integral (2014) and Veracious (2019). A P O'Brien winners have been with Alice Springs (2016) and Roly Poly (2017). James Fanshawe winners have been with Soviet Song (2004 & 2005).

Here are some of the top Falmouth Stakes trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
John Gosden 14-2-5 -4.50 -4.59
Sir Michael Stoute 9-2-4 +0.88 +0.03
A P O'Brien 9-2-3 -3.00 -3.50
James Fanshawe 6-2-4 +0.50 +1.26
Mick Channon 7-1-1 +0.50 -2.10
Mark Johnston 5-1-3 +6.00 +3.85
Ralph Beckett 4-1-2 +13.00 +8.05
John & Thady Gosden 4-1-2 +1.00 -0.08
David O'Meara 3-1-1 +6.50 +3.31
Richard Hannon 3-1-2 +4.00 +3.85

Falmouth Stakes Jockey Statistics

The leading jockey in the Falmouth Stakes over the last 20 renewals is Ryan Moore who has won the race three times with those three winners coming from Integral (2014), Alice Springs (2016) and Roly Poly (2017).

Here are some of the top Falmouth Stakes jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Ryan Moore 13-3-6 -4.12 -3.22
Frankie Dettori 11-1-5 +0.00 +4.27
William Buick 8-1-2 -4.00 -6.13
Tom Queally 4-1-1 +13.00 +6.60
Christophe Soumillon 4-1-1 +7.00 +4.00
Jim Crowley 4-1-1 +1.50 -0.19
Kerrin McEvoy 3-1-1 +48.00 +29.25
James Doyle 3-1-2 +6.50 +4.23
Olivier Peslier 3-1-2 -0.25 +0.05
Rob Hornby 2-1-2 +15.00 +10.05

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 2, 1, 6, 4, 3, 1, 5, 2, 9, 2, 1, 6, 6, 1, 1, 3, 3, 3, 2, 3

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (75%) - Not on HY/GS/FM/STD-SLW/STD/FS (Debut)
  • 20 / 20 (81%) - Carried 120 - 128lbs (Last Win)
  • 20 / 20 (83%) - Carried 123 - 133lbs (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (84%) - In a field of 7 - 15 (Debut)
  • 20 / 20 (84%) - Achieved an RPR of 107+ (Last 3)
  • 20 / 20 (84%) - Made 4 - 10 starts (1 Year)
  • 20 / 20 (84%) - Not in DEU/IRL/SCO/SGP/UAE/USA (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (86%) - Made 4 - 16 starts (Career)
  • 20 / 20 (86%) - Highest Placed is not G3/Cl2-4
  • 20 / 20 (88%) - Achieved an RPR of 108+ (Career)
  • 19 / 20 (74%) - Held an OR of 108+
  • 19 / 20 (76%) - No bigger than 16/1
  • 19 / 20 (78%) - Within the first 6 of market
  • 19 / 20 (82%) - No more than +1yrs (Vs Min Age)
  • 19 / 20 (84%) - Achieved a TS of 59+ (LTO)

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Newmarket racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Falmouth Stakes. If you are a newcomer to horse racing betting, then the number of types of bets can be scary! Don't let that put you off though, head over to this Types Of Horse Racing Bet article and have a read, you will then have a better knowledge of betting on racing in the future and there are plenty of other articles in the OLBG Betting School too.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Falmouth Stakes by adding a tip on the race here.

Falmouth Stakes Trend Analysis

The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +75.94 is when runners ran on Good To Firm ground on debut. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 5 career wins in Flat (Turf) races, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-22.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2023: Winner in 4 (6,8) [8 Runners]
  • 2022: Winner in 1 (5) [5 Runners]
  • 2021: Winner in 13 (8,9) [13 Runners]
  • 2020: Winner in 4 (5) [6 Runners]
  • 2019: Winner in 4 (2) [6 Runners]

The course which has produced the most winners of the Falmouth Stakes is Ascot, there has been a total number of 14 winners of this race who ran at Ascot last time out.

Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Falmouth Stakes:

  • Frankel (3 Wins)
  • Marju (2 Wins)
  • Mastercraftsman (2 Wins)

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Falmouth Stakes despite multiple attempts:

  • Pivotal (0 Wins from 8 runners)
  • Dubawi (0 Wins from 6 runners)
  • Cape Cross (0 Wins from 5 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Rajeem in 2006, winning for Clive Brittain at odds of 50/1 under the guidance of Kerrin McEvoy. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 5 winning favourites in the race. Remember to use the best racing tipsters along with the information on this page to find you a bet on the 2024 Falmouth Stakes.

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