July Stakes Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (July Festival)

Updated: 702 Horse Racing

If you are a fan of horse racing trends then this preview of the July Stakes will be perfect for you! Not only do we look at the trends but we look at past winners as well as trainer and jockey records for the July Stakes, a race run over 6f at Newmarket during the July Festival.

July Stakes Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (July Festival)
Andy Powell Content Editor

Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.

2024 July Stakes Preview

Scheduled to take place during the July Festival each year at the Newmarket Racecourse is the July Stakes, a Group 2 horse race that is open to two-year-old colts and geldings only with the race being run over a distance of six furlongs, the Duchess of Cambridge race that is run on the following day is the fillies equivalent of the race.

July Stakes Information:

To see which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are tipping throughout the card that includes this race, head over to the Newmarket tips on the day of the race, do they agree with the runners on the trend shortlist or are they predicting other runners? You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Other Principal Races at Newmarket Racecourse section for links to these.

How competitive is the July Stakes market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2010 when the race had an over-round of 108%. The race in 2007 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 124%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the July Stakes, the over-round has been 115%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £115 which is bet.

July Stakes Trends:

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the July Stakes next time out then you would have backed a total of 8 winners. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of +10.63. Remember to use the racing predictions along with the information on this page to find a bet on the 2024 July Stakes.

When looking over the past 20 renewals, a time of 1:10.53 was set by Arcano in 2009, which is the quickest time over that period, the runner was trained by Brian Meehan and ridden by Martin Dwyer. The slowest winning time was set in 2012 when Alhebayeb won in a time of 1:14.39, booked to ride was Paul Hanagan on this Richard Hannon Snr trained runner.

These are the top three quickest-run July Stakes over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2009 - Arcano (1:10.53)
  • 2021 - Lusail (1:10.57)
  • 2016 - Mehmas (1:10.92)

July Stakes Past Winners

Here are the July Stakes past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and also the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the July Stakes as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse (Drawn) Info
2023
1:11.11
Jasour (GB)
2yo 9-2 (1 of 9) 16/1
Jim Crowley
Clive Cox (GB)
2022
1:11.18
Persian Force (IRE)
2yo 9-2 (3 of 7) 1/2F
Rossa Ryan
Richard Hannon (GB)
2021
1:10.57
Lusail (IRE)
2yo 9-0 (7 of 11) 15/2
Pat Dobbs
Richard Hannon (GB)
2020
1:12.42
Tactical (GB)
2yo 9-0 (6 of 9) 5/2
William Buick
Andrew Balding (GB)
2019
1:11.16
Royal Lytham (FR)
2yo 9-0 (8 of 7) 11/1
Wayne Lordan
A P O'Brien (IRE)
2018
1:11.63
Advertise (GB)
2yo 9-0 (6 of 8) 11/10F
Frankie Dettori
Martyn Meade (GB)
2017
1:11.75
Cardsharp (GB)
2yo 9-0 (3 of 12) 8/1
James Doyle
Mark Johnston (GB)
2016
1:10.92
Mehmas (IRE)
2yo 9-0 (8 of 9) 11/4F
Frankie Dettori
Richard Hannon (GB)
2015
1:11.19
Shalaa (IRE)
2yo 9-0 (3 of 9) 14/1
Robert Havlin
John Gosden (GB)
2014
1:11.02
Ivawood (IRE)
2yo 9-0 (1 of 12) 3/1F
Richard Hughes
Richard Hannon (GB)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the July Stakes have been based:

  • GB: 18 winners with an additional 31 placings from 168 runners
  • IRE: 2 winners with an additional 2 placings from 13 runners

July Stakes Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the July Stakes over the last 20 renewals is Richard Hannon who has won the race four times with those four winners coming from Ivawood (2014), Mehmas (2016), Lusail (2021) and Persian Force (2022). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the July Stakes are A P O'Brien (2 wins) and Peter Chapple-Hyam (2 wins).

Here are some of the top July Stakes trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
Richard Hannon 8-4-4 +9.75 +4.26
A P O'Brien 12-2-4 +4.50 +1.68
Peter Chapple-Hyam 4-2-3 +10.75 +6.77
Mark Johnston 14-1-5 -5.00 +4.35
Brian Meehan 9-1-4 -6.25 +3.08
Tom Dascombe 6-1-3 +1.00 +4.20
John Gosden 4-1-1 +11.00 +5.40
Andrew Balding 4-1-1 -0.50 -1.50
Clive Cox 3-1-2 +14.00 +9.10
David Brown 2-1-1 +0.75 +0.09

July Stakes Jockey Statistics

There are two leading jockeys in the July Stakes over the last 20 renewals with both Frankie Dettori and Paul Hanagan who have both won the race two times. Frankie Dettori winners have been with Mehmas (2016) and Advertise (2018). Paul Hanagan's winners have been Alhebayeb (2012) and Anjaal (2013).

Here are some of the top July Stakes jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Frankie Dettori 11-2-4 -5.15 -5.05
Paul Hanagan 7-2-4 +13.50 +10.26
Ryan Moore 19-1-4 -8.00 -8.36
James Doyle 7-1-3 +2.00 +3.38
Richard Kingscote 6-1-2 +1.00 -0.30
Jim Crowley 5-1-1 +12.00 +5.60
William Buick 5-1-1 -1.50 -2.50
Robert Havlin 2-1-1 +13.00 +7.40
Martin Dwyer 2-1-1 +0.75 +0.05
Wayne Lordan 1-1-1 +11.00 +6.88

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 2, 7, 7, 1, 3, 1, 3, 2, 4, 4, 1, (2, 4, 6), 1, 4, 1, 3, 4, (5, 10), 1, 6

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (71%) - No bigger than 16/1
  • 20 / 20 (85%) - Off a break of 11 - 40 days
  • 20 / 20 (86%) - Achieved an RPR of 82+ (Career)
  • 20 / 20 (86%) - Achieved an RPR of 80+ (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (86%) - Within the first 8 of market
  • 20 / 20 (86%) - Break of 11 - 56 days (Last Place)
  • 20 / 20 (87%) - Achieved a TS of 53+ (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - Is not AUS/CAN/USA bred
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - No bigger than 28/1 (Career)
  • 19 / 20 (75%) - Break of 11 - 56 days (Last Win)
  • 19 / 20 (80%) - Beaten no more than 3¾l (LTO)
  • 19 / 20 (87%) - Not on HY/FM/STD-SLW/STD (Last Win)
  • 19 / 20 (87%) - Not in ITA/SCO/WAL (Last Win)
  • 18 / 20 (71%) - Placed within last 1 start
  • 18 / 20 (76%) - No bigger than 12/1 (LTO)

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Newmarket racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the July Stakes. If there is anything that you do not understand in this blog, please do leave a comment or alternatively, head over to the Horse Racing Terms and Abbreviations article which is available in the OLBG Betting School section.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the July Stakes by adding a tip on the race here.

July Stakes Trend Analysis

The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +36.35 is when runners had 2 season starts. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners were USA bred, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-18.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2023: Winner in 1 (7,5) [9 Runners]
  • 2022: Winner in 3 (4) [7 Runners]
  • 2021: Winner in 7 (10,11) [11 Runners]
  • 2020: Winner in 6 (9,8) [9 Runners]
  • 2019: Winner in 8 (3) [7 Runners]

The course which has produced the most winners of the July Stakes is Ascot, there has been a total number of 10 winners of this race who ran at Ascot last time out.

Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the July Stakes, that stallion Mehmas has produced 2 winners (2022,2021).

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the July Stakes despite multiple attempts:

  • Kodiac (0 Wins from 6 runners)
  • Exceed And Excel (0 Wins from 5 runners)
  • War Front (0 Wins from 5 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Jasour in 2023, winning for Clive Cox at odds of 16/1 under the guidance of Jim Crowley. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 6 winning favourites in the race. Remember to bookmark the best racing tipsters page so you can get easy access to the best OLBG racing tipsters.

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