July Stakes Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (July Festival)

Updated: 792 Horse Racing

If you are a fan of horse racing trends then this preview of the July Stakes will be perfect for you! Not only do we look at the trends but we look at past winners as well as trainer and jockey records for the July Stakes, a race run over 6f at Newmarket during the July Festival.

July Stakes Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (July Festival)
Andy Powell Content Editor

Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.

2024 July Stakes Preview

Scheduled to take place during the July Festival each year at the Newmarket Racecourse is the July Stakes, a Group 2 horse race that is open to two-year-old colts and geldings only with the race being run over a distance of six furlongs, the Duchess of Cambridge race that is run on the following day is the fillies equivalent of the race.

July Stakes Information:

If you are interested in other predictions at Newmarket then head over to the Newmarket tips page to see which runners are being supported by the OLBG racing tipsters and also compare those predictions to the runners that make the trend shortlist when added below. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Other Principal races during the Newmarket July Festival section for links to these.

How competitive is the July Stakes market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2010 when the race had an over-round of 108%. The race in 2007 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 124%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the July Stakes, the over-round has been 115%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £115 which is bet.

July Stakes Trends:

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the July Stakes next time out then you would have backed a total of 8 winners. Backing all 20 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of +9.63. Ahead of the 2024 July Stakes why not head over to the racing predictions for tips on other races today?

The runner that holds the record over the past 20 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2012 renewal when Alhebayeb from Richard Hannon Snr under the guidance of Paul Hanagan, won in a time of 1:14.39, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Arcano, trained by Brian Meehan and ridden by Martin Dwyer set the quickest time of 1:10.53 in the 2009 renewal.

These are the top three quickest-run July Stakes over the last 20 renewals:

  1. Arcano (1:10.53) in 2009
  2. Lusail (1:10.57) in 2021
  3. Mehmas (1:10.92) in 2016
What the expert says...
Six of the last eight winners ran at Royal Ascot last time out with four of those running in the Coventry, three of which finished runner-up in the Coventry before coming and winning the July Stakes.

Andy Powell - Horse Racing Betting Expert - OLBG.com

July Stakes Past Winners

Here are the July Stakes' past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and the total number of runners in the race. The horse's trainer at the time of winning the July Stakes and the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

YearHorse (Drawn)Info
2023
1:11.11
Jasour (GB)
2yo 9-2 (1 of 9) 16/1
Jim Crowley
Clive Cox (GB)
2022
1:11.18
Persian Force (IRE)
2yo 9-2 (3 of 7) 1/2F
Rossa Ryan
Richard Hannon (GB)
2021
1:10.57
Lusail (IRE)
2yo 9-0 (7 of 11) 15/2
Pat Dobbs
Richard Hannon (GB)
2020
1:12.42
Tactical (GB)
2yo 9-0 (6 of 9) 5/2
William Buick
Andrew Balding (GB)
2019
1:11.16
Royal Lytham (FR)
2yo 9-0 (8 of 7) 11/1
Wayne Lordan
A P O'Brien (IRE)
2018
1:11.63
Advertise (GB)
2yo 9-0 (6 of 8) 11/10F
Frankie Dettori
Martyn Meade (GB)
2017
1:11.75
Cardsharp (GB)
2yo 9-0 (3 of 12) 8/1
James Doyle
Mark Johnston (GB)
2016
1:10.92
Mehmas (IRE)
2yo 9-0 (8 of 9) 11/4F
Frankie Dettori
Richard Hannon (GB)
2015
1:11.19
Shalaa (IRE)
2yo 9-0 (3 of 9) 14/1
Robert Havlin
John Gosden (GB)
2014
1:11.02
Ivawood (IRE)
2yo 9-0 (1 of 12) 3/1F
Richard Hughes
Richard Hannon (GB)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the July Stakes have been based:

  • GB: 18 winners with an additional 31 placings from 168 runners
  • IRE: 2 winners with an additional 2 placings from 13 runners

July Stakes Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the July Stakes over the last 20 renewals is A P O'Brien who has won the race two times with those two winners coming from Ivan Denisovich (2005) and Royal Lytham (2019).

Here are the July Stakes trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals for trainers who have entries in the 2024 renewal, those not listed have not had a runner. (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

TrainerR-W-PWinEW
A P O'Brien12-2-4+4.50+1.68
Kevin Ryan5-0-1-5.00-3.70
Michael Bell2-0-0-2.00-2.00
Charlie Appleby2-0-0-2.00-2.00
Archie Watson1-0-0-1.00-1.00

July Stakes Jockey Statistics

Here are the July Stakes jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals for jockeys who have entries in the 2024 renewal, those not listed have not had a runner. (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

JockeyR-W-PWinEW
Ryan Moore19-1-4-8.00-8.36
James Doyle7-1-3+2.00+3.38
William Buick5-1-1-1.50-2.50
Oisin Murphy3-0-0-3.00-3.00

July Stakes Trend Analysis

The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +36.35 is when runners had 2 season starts. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners were USA-bred, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-18.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2023: Winner in 1 (7,5) [9 Runners]
  • 2022: Winner in 3 (4) [7 Runners]
  • 2021: Winner in 7 (10,11) [11 Runners]
  • 2020: Winner in 6 (9,8) [9 Runners]
  • 2019: Winner in 8 (3) [7 Runners]

The course which has produced the most winners of the July Stakes is Ascot, there has been a total number of 10 winners of this race who ran at Ascot last time out.

Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the July Stakes, that stallion Mehmas has produced 2 winners (2022,2021).

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the July Stakes despite multiple attempts:

  • Kodiac (0 Wins from 6 runners)
  • Exceed And Excel (0 Wins from 5 runners)
  • War Front (0 Wins from 5 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Jasour in 2023, winning for Clive Cox at odds of 16/1 under the guidance of Jim Crowley. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there have been 6 winning favourites in the race. Ahead of the 2024 July Stakes why not head over to the best racing tipster page to see what the tipsters are backing today?

July Stakes Trend Shortlist

Newmarket will host the 2024 renewal of the July Stakes which will be run at 2:25 pm on Thursday 11th July 2024 and these are the runners who perform best based on the trends along with the trainer and jockey and their record in the race (Runs-Wins-Places Win LSP / EW LSP):

  • 15/15 Aomori City (5/1)
    • Charlie Appleby (2-0-0 -2.00 / -2.00)
    • William Buick (5-1-1 -1.50 / -2.50)
  • 14/15 Aint Nobody (5/1)
    • Kevin Ryan (5-0-1 -5.00 / -3.70)
    • Tom Eaves (0-0-0 0.00 / 0.00)
  • 14/15 Billboard Star (16/1)
    • Eve Johnson Houghton (0-0-0 0.00 / 0.00)
    • Charles Bishop (0-0-0 0.00 / 0.00)
  • 14/15 Rajeko (12/1)
    • Michael Bell (2-0-0 -2.00 / -2.00)
    • Oisin Murphy (3-0-0 -3.00 / -3.00)
  • 13/15 Whistlejacket (15/8)
    • A P O'Brien (12-2-4 +4.50 / +1.68)
    • Ryan Moore (19-1-4 -8.00 / -8.36)
  • 12/15 Electrolyte (9/4)
    • Archie Watson (1-0-0 -1.00 / -1.00)
    • James Doyle (7-1-3 +2.00 / +3.38)

*Trainer & Jockey numbers are Runs-Wins-Places Win LSP / EW LSP, Runners, Odds and Trends Passed/Failed correct at the time of posting (1:42 pm Tuesday 9th July 2024), if no odds were available at the time of posting then forecasted odds are used.

Aint Nobody won the Windsor Castle Stakes last time out and a total of 5 previous winners of that race from a total of 19 runners went on to win next time out, backing them all would have returned an LSP of +1.90.

If you are not a fan of the traditional trends above and you want a more in-depth way of using the July Stakes trends from previous renewals then we have created the scoring trends, these are calculated by looking at over 100 factors including aspects of breeding, horse factors, things like runs, wins and places during their career, under certain circumstances like over the trip or on the ground and many more.

Using all of this information we can assign each horse a score based on how past runners in the July Stakes performed when running under the same factors, we assign 80% of the score for the win statistics and 20% of the score for place statistics. Here are the top two scoring runners in the 2024 July Stakes based on the information above, why not compare those to what the OLBG racing tipsters are tipping?

Here are the top 2 scorers at the time of posting (1:42 pm Tuesday 9th July 2024):

  • 🥇 Aint Nobody (5/1)
    • Kevin Ryan (5-0-1 -5.00 / -3.70)
    • Tom Eaves (0-0-0 0.00 / 0.00)
  • 🥈 Electrolyte (9/4)
    • Archie Watson (1-0-0 -1.00 / -1.00)
    • James Doyle (7-1-3 +2.00 / +3.38)

Others: Rajeko, Billboard Star, Aomori City and Whistlejacket.

Other Principal races during the Newmarket July Festival

Remember to head to the Newmarket predictions page to see which runner the racing tipsters support in the July Stakes. Below are the other principal races that we cover during the July Festival with links to each race blog as well as information for last year's winners.

Friday at the July Festival

The highlight on the Friday, known as Ladies Day is the Princess of Wales's Stakes, a group 2 contested over one mile and four furlongs.

RaceLast WinnerInfo
13:50 Newmarket
Bahrain Trophy Stakes
Castle Way (GB)
3yo - 9/2
Charlie Appleby
William Buick
14:25 Newmarket
July Stakes
Jasour (GB)
2yo - 16/1
Clive Cox
Jim Crowley
15:00 Newmarket
bet365 Sprint Handicap
Quinault (GER)
3yo - 4/1
Stuart Williams
Connor Planas
15:35 Newmarket
Princess of Wales's Stakes
Israr (GB)
4yo - 7/2
John & Thady Gosden
Jim Crowley

Saturday at the July Festival

Festival Friday as it is known features the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes which is part of the British Champion Series and is run over a mile.

RaceLast WinnerInfo
13:50 Newmarket
bet365 Handicap
Killybegs Warrior (IRE)
3yo - 20/1
Charlie Johnston
Kevin Stott
14:25 Newmarket
Duchess of Cambridge Stakes
Persian Dreamer (USA)
2yo - 5/1
Dominic Ffrench Davis
Kevin Stott
15:35 Newmarket
Falmouth Stakes
Nashwa (GB)
4yo - 4/1
John & Thady Gosden
Hollie Doyle

Sunday at the July Festival

As the name would indicate, 'July Cup Day', the main race on the final day of the July Festival is the July Cup, another race which is part of the British Champion Series, this race is contested over six furlongs.

RaceLast WinnerInfo
14:50 Newmarket
bet365 Mile Handicap
Highbank (IRE)
3yo - 11/1
Charlie Appleby
William Buick
15:25 Newmarket
Superlative Stakes
City Of Troy (USA)
2yo - 4/6
A P O'Brien
Ryan Moore
16:00 Newmarket
Bunbury Cup
Biggles (GB)
6yo - 5/1
Ralph Beckett
Ryan Moore
16:35 Newmarket
July Cup
Shaquille (GB)
3yo - 5/2
Julie Camacho
Rossa Ryan

Article Contributor Information

We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this July Stakes Preview are at hand, Andy and Darren. They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for Flat Racing.

Darren Brett

Darren Brett

Tipster competition manager

Darren has worked in the horse racing industry for decades bringing to OLBG for the last 20 years a wealth of knowledge, creating much of our content on these sports. Darren also manages our Grand National Guide and is the go-to font of knowledge for the world's greatest steeplechase.
Andy Powell

Andy Powell

Content editor

Andy, a seasoned horse racing expert with over 15 years of experience, possesses a comprehensive understanding of the sport, from delving into complex statistical data for flat racing in the UK and Ireland to crafting insightful flat racing blogs for OLBG.

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