Norfolk Stakes Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (Royal Ascot)

Updated: 1512 Horse Racing

We look at the Norfolk Stakes ahead of the next renewal, a race contested over 5f at Ascot during the Royal Ascot to see which runners, trainers and jockeys have previously won the race and which trends you can use to find the winner of the Norfolk Stakes.

Norfolk Stakes Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (Royal Ascot)
Andy Powell Content Editor

Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.

2024 Norfolk Stakes Preview

A Group 2 race run at Royal Ascot in June of each year, the Norfolk Stakes is a race open to two-year-olds only and is run over five furlongs. Established in 1843, it had the original title of the New Stakes, it was changed to its current title in 1973 and was upgraded to Group 2 status in 2006.

The race serves as a 'Win and You're In' race for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint race, meaning the winner gets an automatic place in the race at the Breeders' Cup.

Norfolk Stakes Information:

Our dedicated Royal Ascot tips page will not only bring you predictions from the OLBG racing tipsters for the upcoming card that includes the Norfolk Stakes but will also have predictions for each meeting at Royal Ascot throughout the season so be sure to head over there. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Schedule at Royal Ascot section for links to these.

How competitive is the Norfolk Stakes market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2021 when the race had an over-round of 106%. The race in 2011 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 123%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Norfolk Stakes, the over-round has been 118%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £118 which is bet.

Norfolk Stakes Trends:

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Norfolk Stakes next time out then you would have backed a total of 6 winners. Backing all 17 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of +2.35. Remember to use the racing predictions along with the information on this page to find a bet on the 2024 Norfolk Stakes.

When looking over the past 20 renewals, a time of 57.56 was set by Masta Plasta in 2005, which is the quickest time over that period, the runner was trained by Howard Johnson and ridden by Robert Winston. The slowest winning time was set in 2011 when Bapak Chinta won in a time of 1:03.03, booked to ride was Phillip Makin on this Kevin Ryan trained runner.

These are the top three quickest-run Norfolk Stakes over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2005 - Masta Plasta (57.56)
  • 2013 - No Nay Never (58.80)
  • 2023 - Valiant Force (59.75)

Norfolk Stakes Past Winners

Here are the Norfolk Stakes past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and also the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Norfolk Stakes as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse (Drawn) Info
2023
59.75
Valiant Force (USA)
2yo 9-3 (5 of 14) 150/1
Rossa Ryan
Adrian Murray (IRE)
2022
1:00.50
The Ridler (GB)
2yo 9-3 (2 of 10) 50/1
Paul Hanagan
Richard Fahey (GB)
2021
1:00.44
Perfect Power (IRE)
2yo 9-1 (10 of 15) 14/1
Paul Hanagan
Richard Fahey (GB)
2020
1:01.55
The Lir Jet (IRE)
2yo 9-1 (1 of 12) 9/2
Oisin Murphy
Michael Bell (GB)
2019
1:01.90
AAli (IRE)
2yo 9-1 (9 of 14) 5/1
Frankie Dettori
Simon Crisford (GB)
2018
59.83
Shang Shang Shang (USA)
2yo 8-12 (4 of 10) 5/1
Joel Rosario
Wesley A Ward (USA)
2017
1:00.88
Sioux Nation (USA)
2yo 9-1 (2 of 17) 14/1
Ryan Moore
A P O'Brien (IRE)
2016
1:01.17
Prince Of Lir (IRE)
2yo 9-1 (10 of 11) 8/1
Luke Morris
Robert Cowell (GB)
2015
59.98
Waterloo Bridge (IRE)
2yo 9-1 (8 of 10) 12/1
Ryan Moore
A P O'Brien (IRE)
2014
59.81
Baitha Alga (IRE)
2yo 9-1 (7 of 9) 8/1
Frankie Dettori
Richard Hannon (GB)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Norfolk Stakes have been based:

  • GB: 15 winners with an additional 35 placings from 197 runners
  • IRE: 3 winners with an additional 4 placings from 27 runners
  • USA: 2 winners with an additional 1 placing from 12 runners
  • FR: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 3 runners

Norfolk Stakes Trainer Statistics

There are multiple leading trainers in the Norfolk Stakes over the last 20 renewals with all of A P O'Brien, Wesley A Ward, Richard Fahey and Peter Chapple-Hyam having all won the race two times. A P O'Brien winners have been with Waterloo Bridge (2015) and Sioux Nation (2017). Wesley A Ward winners have been with No Nay Never (2013) and Shang Shang Shang (2018). Richard Fahey's winners have been Perfect Power (2021) and The Ridler (2022). Peter Chapple-Hyam winners have been with Dutch Art (2006) and Winker Watson (2007). There is one trainer who has not had the best of times in the Norfolk Stakes, Mark Johnston has sent a total of 12 runners to the race without recording any wins.

Here are some of the top Norfolk Stakes trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
A P O'Brien 16-2-5 +12.00 +3.42
Wesley A Ward 11-2-3 +0.00 -1.90
Richard Fahey 10-2-4 +56.00 +39.60
Peter Chapple-Hyam 6-2-3 +0.75 +1.85
Richard Hannon 8-1-3 +1.00 -0.90
William Haggas 6-1-1 +11.00 +4.60
Brian Meehan 6-1-1 +5.00 +1.00
Robert Cowell 6-1-2 +3.00 +2.30
Clive Cox 5-1-1 +0.00 -1.60
Kevin Ryan 4-1-1 +3.00 +0.60

Norfolk Stakes Jockey Statistics

There are multiple leading jockeys in the Norfolk Stakes over the last 20 renewals with Ryan Moore, Frankie Dettori, Paul Hanagan and Joel Rosario having all won the race two times. Ryan Moore winners have been with Waterloo Bridge (2015) and Sioux Nation (2017). Frankie Dettori winners have been with Baitha Alga (2014) and AAli (2019). Paul Hanagan winners have been with Perfect Power (2021) and The Ridler (2022). Joel Rosario's winners have been No Nay Never (2013) and Shang Shang Shang (2018).

Here are some of the top Norfolk Stakes jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Ryan Moore 19-2-6 +9.00 +5.10
Frankie Dettori 12-2-6 +3.00 +2.64
Paul Hanagan 7-2-3 +59.00 +35.50
Joel Rosario 3-2-2 +8.00 +4.40
Jamie Spencer 9-1-5 +2.00 +5.70
Adam Kirby 5-1-1 +0.00 -1.60
Oisin Murphy 3-1-1 +2.50 +0.70
Rossa Ryan 2-1-2 +149.00 +89.67
Luke Morris 2-1-1 +7.00 +3.80
Silvestre De Sousa 8-0-2 -8.00 -5.70

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 1, 2, 2, 1, 1, 5, 6, 8, 6, 2, 5, 3, 5, (2, 7), 9, 8, 9, 4, 2, 3

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (72%) - Not at ASC/HAY/NMR/SAN (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (84%) - Sex is not Gelding
  • 20 / 20 (86%) - No bigger than 14/1 (Debut)
  • 20 / 20 (87%) - Off a break of 8 - 62 days
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - Not on HY/FM/SLW/STD-SLW/STD (LTO)
  • 19 / 20 (76%) - Within the first 9 of market
  • 19 / 20 (82%) - No bigger than 14/1 (Career)
  • 19 / 20 (88%) - No bigger than 50/1
  • 19 / 20 (88%) - No bigger than 11/1 (LTO)
  • 18 / 20 (72%) - Not in a Cl3-4 (LTO)
  • 18 / 20 (77%) - No bigger than 11/1 (Career Win)
  • 18 / 20 (78%) - Won within last 2 starts
  • 18 / 20 (81%) - Not in FRA/WAL (Last Win)
  • 18 / 20 (81%) - In a field of 4 - 18 (Last Win)
  • 18 / 20 (81%) - Carried 118 - 133lbs (Last Win)

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Royal Ascot racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Norfolk Stakes. If you are looking to place on a bet this race well in advance of the actual running, then there may be an ante-post market available for you to place your bet. If you are unfamiliar with this type of betting then head over to the OLBG Betting School and read our Ante-Post Horse Racing article which explains how ante-post betting works.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Norfolk Stakes by adding a tip on the race here.

Norfolk Stakes Trend Analysis

The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +164.50 is when runners had 1 career place over the trip. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners were Geldings, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-38.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2023: Winner in 5 (6,4) [14 Runners]
  • 2022: Winner in 2 (6,4) [10 Runners]
  • 2021: Winner in 10 (5,16) [15 Runners]
  • 2020: Winner in 1 (6,2) [12 Runners]
  • 2019: Winner in 9 (11,3) [14 Runners]

The courses which have produced the most winners of the Norfolk Stakes are Curragh, Keeneland, Beverley, Hamilton, Windsor and Epsom, there has been a total number of 2 winners from each of those courses.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 19 winners from a total of 230 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 1 winner from a total of 9 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Norfolk Stakes, that stallion Scat Daddy has produced 2 winners (2017,2013).

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Norfolk Stakes despite multiple attempts:

  • Acclamation (0 Wins from 11 runners)
  • Exceed And Excel (0 Wins from 11 runners)
  • Invincible Spirit (0 Wins from 7 runners)
  • Camacho (0 Wins from 6 runners)
  • Dark Angel (0 Wins from 6 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Valiant Force in 2023, winning for Adrian Murray at odds of 150/1 under the guidance of Rossa Ryan. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 3 winning favourites in the race. Whilst we wait for the 2024 Norfolk Stakes remember you can get daily racing predictions from the top racing tipsters on the best racing tipsters page.

Schedule at Royal Ascot

Royal Ascot races for Tuesday 18th June 2024

Royal Ascot races for Wednesday 19th June 2024

Royal Ascot races for Thursday 20th June 2024

Royal Ascot races for Friday 21st June 2024

Royal Ascot races for Saturday 22nd June 2024

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