2021 Betfair Exchange Trophy Preview, Trends & Analysis

Published: Dec 18, 4:24pm Last Updated: Nov 29, 2:26pm Horse Racing 2 Comments 989 Views

2021 Betfair Exchange Trophy Preview

The Betfair Exchange Trophy is scheduled to take place in December of each year at the Ascot racecourse, the race is Grade 3 open to runners aged four years old or older and is run over one mile, seven and a half furlongs. Prior to 2001, the race was run in Ireland at Leopardstown under the name 'The Ladbroke'.

Our dedicated Ascot Betting Picks will not only bring you predictions from the OLBG racing tipsters for the upcoming card that includes the Betfair Exchange Trophy but will also have predictions for each meeting at Ascot throughout the season so be sure to head over there.

When looking over the past 18 renewals, a time of 3:39.90 was set by Brain Power in 2016, that is the quickest time over that period, the runner was trained by Nicky Henderson and ridden by David Mullins. The slowest winning time was set in 2002 when Chauvinist won in a time of 4:24.40, booked to ride was Norman Williamson on this Nicky Henderson trained runner.

These are the top three quickest run Betfair Exchange Trophy over the last 18 renewals:

  • 2016 - Brain Power (3:39.90)
  • 2007 - Jack The Giant (3:42.90)
  • 2015 - Jollys Cracked It (3:47.00)

How competitive is the Betfair Exchange Trophy market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 18 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2003 when the race had an over-round of 123%. The race in 2018 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 142%, whilst on average over the last 18 renewals of the Betfair Exchange Trophy, the over-round has been 131% that means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £131 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 18 if you had followed the winner of the Betfair Exchange Trophy next time out then you would have back a total of 4 winners. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -3.09. Whilst we wait for the 2021 Betfair Exchange Trophy remember you can get daily racing predictions from the expert tipsters on the racing predictions page.

Betfair Exchange Trophy Past Winners

Here are the Betfair Exchange Trophy past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Betfair Exchange Trophy as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse Info
2020
3:51.90
Not So Sleepy (GB)
8yo 11-6 20/1
Tom O'Brien
Hughie Morrison (GB)
2019
3:50.75
Not So Sleepy (GB)
7yo 10-3 9/2F
Jonathan Burke
Hughie Morrison (GB)
2018
3:47.90
Mohaayed (GB)
6yo 11-10 16/1
Harry Skelton
Dan Skelton (GB)
2017
3:49.40
Hunters Call (IRE)
7yo 10-3 9/1
Jack Kennedy
Olly Murphy (GB)
2016
3:39.90
Brain Power (IRE)
5yo 11-11 12/1
David Mullins
Nicky Henderson (GB)
2015
3:47.00
Jollys Cracked It (FR)
6yo 11-3 7/1F
Noel Fehily
Harry Fry (GB)
2015
3:47.00
Sternrubin (GER)
4yo 10-10 9/1
Richard Johnson
Philip Hobbs (GB)
2014
3:48.60
Bayan (IRE)
5yo 11-5 14/1
Davy Condon
Gordon Elliott (IRE)
2013
3:54.30
Willows Saviour (GB)
6yo 10-5 10/1
Harry Skelton
Dan Skelton (GB)
2012
4:12.70
Cause Of Causes (USA)
4yo 10-13 25/1
Davy Condon
Gordon Elliott (IRE)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Betfair Exchange Trophy have been based:

  • GB: 17 winners with an additional 46 placings from 296 runners
  • IRE: 2 winners with an additional 6 placings from 41 runners

Betfair Exchange Trophy Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the Betfair Exchange Trophy over the last 18 renewals is Nicky Henderson who has won the race 4 times. Those 4 winners came from Chauvinist (2002), Jack The Giant (2007), Sentry Duty (2008) & Brain Power (2016). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Betfair Exchange Trophy are Hughie Morrison (3 wins), Dan Skelton (2 wins) & Gordon Elliott (2 wins). There are multiple trainers who have not had the best of times over the last 18 renewals in the Betfair Exchange Trophy, Paul Nicholls (0-23), Gary Moore (0-14) & W P Mullins (0-11) have all failed to produce a single winner despite sending multiple runners to the race.

Here are some of the top Betfair Exchange Trophy trainer statistics over the last 18 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
Nicky Henderson 30-4-10 +7.75 +4.99
Hughie Morrison 4-3-3 +30.50 +18.69
Dan Skelton 9-2-3 +19.00 +10.38
Gordon Elliott 5-2-3 +36.00 +23.88
Philip Hobbs 19-1-4 -9.00 -2.99
David Pipe 18-1-2 -10.00 -8.99
Alan King 14-1-3 -1.00 +0.44
Venetia Williams 9-1-2 +25.00 +15.13
Harry Fry 7-1-3 +1.00 +3.01
Olly Murphy 2-1-1 +8.00 +4.63

Betfair Exchange Trophy Jockey Statistics

The leading jockey in the Betfair Exchange Trophy over the last 18 renewals is Harry Skelton who has won the race 2 times. Those 2 winners came from Willows Saviour (2013) & Mohaayed (2018).

Here are some of the top Betfair Exchange Trophy jockey statistics over the last 18 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Harry Skelton 7-2-3 +21.00 +12.38
Tom Scudamore 9-1-1 +17.00 +7.63
Tom O'Brien 4-1-2 +17.00 +11.25
David Mullins 4-1-1 +9.00 +4.50
Jack Kennedy 2-1-1 +8.00 +4.63
Jonathan Burke 1-1-1 +4.50 +2.81
Jamie Moore 7-0-1 -7.00 -5.00
Sam Twiston-Davies 6-0-4 -6.00 +2.50
Paddy Brennan 6-0-1 -6.00 -3.00
Aidan Coleman 5-0-0 -5.00 -5.00

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,8,9,(7,F),10,8,5,1,17,4,UR,13,(4,7),(1,15),4,3,14,(1,6),(4,11)

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 19 / 19 (71%) - Avoid claimers
  • 19 / 19 (88%) - No more than 2 handicap wins
  • 18 / 19 (76%) - No bigger than 25/1
  • 18 / 19 (81%) - Last win was by at least three quarters of a length
  • 18 / 19 (85%) - Either Bay or Chestnut
  • 18 / 19 (88%) - No older than 7yo
  • 17 / 18 (73%) - Favour those with no career falls
  • 17 / 19 (81%) - Last win came between 15.5f & 18.5f
  • 17 / 19 (86%) - Last win came over hurdles
  • 16 / 19 (76%) - Off at least a 21 day break

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Ascot racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Betfair Exchange Trophy. If you are a newcomer to horse racing betting, then the number of types of bets can be scary! Don't let that put you off though, head over to this Types Of Horse Racing Bet article and have a read, you will then have a better knowledge of betting on racing in the future and there is plenty of other articles in the OLBG Betting School too.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not! With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then why share your thoughts on the Betfair Exchange Trophy by adding a tip on the race here.

Betfair Exchange Trophy Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 9+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +54.25 is when runners had 1 win in the past 90 days. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 1 career start in Handicap races, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-57.

The course which has produced the most winners of the Betfair Exchange Trophy is Cheltenham, there has been a total number of 5 winners of this race who ran at Cheltenham last time out. The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Newbury, there has been a total number of 4 winners of this race who ran at Newbury last time out.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 19 winners from a total of 328 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 9 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Betfair Exchange Trophy, that stallion is Beat Hollow who has produced 2 winners (2020,2019).

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Betfair Exchange Trophy despite multiple attempts:

  • Sadlers Wells (0 Wins from 7 runners)
  • Galileo (0 Wins from 5 runners)
  • Pistolet Bleu (0 Wins from 5 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 18 renewals, the biggest priced winner was Thesis in 2003 when winning for Venetia Williams at odds of 33/1 under the guidance of B J Crowley. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 18 renewals there has been a total of 3 winning favourites in the race. Before placing your bet on the 2021 Betfair Exchange Trophy see which other runners today are being back by the best racing tipsters today.

Other Principal races at Ascot racecourse

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