2022 Welsh Champion Hurdle Preview, Trends & Analysis

Published: Oct 2, 11:09am Last Updated: Oct 18, 2:42pm Horse Racing 0 Comments 356 Views

2022 Welsh Champion Hurdle Preview

Established in 1969, the Welsh Champion Hurdle is scheduled to take place in October of each year at the Ffos Las racecourse, the race is a Class 2 Limited Handicap Hurdle which is open to runners who are aged four years old or older, it is run over a trip of just shy of two miles in which the runners have to jump a total of eight hurdles. Originally run at Chepstow racecourse and was dropped from the racing calendar in 2003 after a decline in the number of runners being entered into the race, however, in 2011 the race was revived at Ffos Las.

If you are interested in other predictions at Ffos Las then head over to the Ffos Las Betting Picks page to see which runners are being supported by the OLBG racing tipsters and also compare those predictions to the runners that make the trend shortlist when added below.

When looking over the past 10 renewals, a time of 3:40.81 was set by Glory And Fortune in 2021, that is the quickest time over that period, the runner was trained by Tom Lacey and ridden by Stan Sheppard. The slowest winning time was set in 2013 when Medinas won in a time of 5:39.10, booked to ride was Wayne Hutchinson on this Alan King trained runner.

These are the top three quickest run Welsh Champion Hurdle over the last 10 renewals:

  • 2021 - Glory And Fortune (3:40.81)
  • 2020 - Sceau Royal (3:41.20)
  • 2011 - Oscar Whisky (3:43.10)

How competitive is the Welsh Champion Hurdle market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 10 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2011 when the race had an over-round of 110%. The race in 2019 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 124%, whilst on average over the last 10 renewals of the Welsh Champion Hurdle, the over-round has been 119% that means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £119 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 10 if you had followed the winner of the Welsh Champion Hurdle next time out then you would have back a total of 2 winners. Backing all 9 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of +26.80. Whilst we wait for the 2022 Welsh Champion Hurdle remember you can get daily racing predictions from the expert tipsters on the racing predictions page.

Welsh Champion Hurdle Past Winners

Here are the past 10 winners of the Welsh Champion Hurdle. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Welsh Champion Hurdle as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Race Notes: No race in 2012 and in 2016 the race was originally scheduled for February but abandoned due to waterlogging, it was rescheduled in October.

Year Horse Info
2021
3:40.81
Glory And Fortune
6yo 10-7 11/2
Stan Sheppard
Tom Lacey
2020
3:41.20
Sceau Royal
8yo 11-6 10/1
Daryl Jacob
Alan King
2019
3:51.00
Monsieur Lecoq
5yo 10-5 7/2
Chester Williams (5lbs)
Mrs Jane Williams
2018
3:47.10
Silver Streak
5yo 10-4 3/1F
Adam Wedge
Evan Williams
2017
3:51.50
The New One
9yo 11-5 2/1F
Mr Z Baker (5lbs)
Nigel Twiston-Davies
2016
3:44.20
Garde La Victoire
7yo 11-10 11/4
Richard Johnson
Philip Hobbs
2015
5:25.00
Silsol
6yo 11-3 8/1
Jack Sherwood (7lbs)
Paul Nicholls
2014
5:31.55
Saphir Du Rheu
5yo 11-5 2/1
Harry Derham (5lbs)
Paul Nicholls
2013
5:39.10
Medinas
6yo 10-10 6/1
Wayne Hutchinson
Alan King
2011
3:43.10
Oscar Whisky
6yo 11-7 2/7F
Barry Geraghty
Nicky Henderson

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Welsh Champion Hurdle have been based:

  • GB: 10 winners with an additional 16 placings from 92 runners
  • IRE: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner

Welsh Champion Hurdle Trainer Statistics

There are two leading trainers in the Welsh Champion Hurdle over the last 10 renewals with both Paul Nicholls & Alan King who have both won the race 2 times. Paul Nicholls winners have been with Saphir Du Rheu (2014) & Silsol (2015). Alan King winners have been with Medinas (2013) & Sceau Royal (2020).

Here are some of the top Welsh Champion Hurdle trainer statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
Paul Nicholls 7-2-4 +5.00 +3.45
Alan King 3-2-2 +15.00 +9.00
Evan Williams 9-1-3 -5.00 -2.70
Nigel Twiston-Davies 6-1-2 -3.00 -2.44
Nicky Henderson 4-1-3 -2.71 -0.63
Philip Hobbs 3-1-2 +0.75 +0.82
Mrs Jane Williams 2-1-1 +2.50 +1.10
Tom Lacey 1-1-1 +5.50 +3.44
Rebecca Curtis 7-0-3 -7.00 -0.37
David Pipe 6-0-2 -6.00 -2.75

Welsh Champion Hurdle Jockey Statistics

Here are some of the top Welsh Champion Hurdle jockey statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Adam Wedge 3-1-2 +1.00 +0.55
Daryl Jacob 2-1-2 +9.00 +6.02
Stan Sheppard 2-1-1 +4.50 +2.44
Chester Williams 2-1-1 +2.50 +1.10
Mr Z Baker 1-1-1 +2.00 +1.25
Sean Bowen 4-0-0 -4.00 -4.00
Tom Scudamore 3-0-1 -3.00 -0.75
Sam Twiston-Davies 3-0-1 -3.00 -1.69
Jamie Moore 3-0-0 -3.00 -3.00
Nick Scholfield 2-0-1 -2.00 +1.63

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,1,13,2,(3,4,PU),2,(1,2),(1,4),3,8,8

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 10 / 10 (58%) - No bigger than 10/1 (LTO)
  • 10 / 10 (60%) - No bigger than 10/1
  • 10 / 10 (61%) - Beaten no more 6l (Debut)
  • 10 / 10 (62%) - Carried 127lbs-152lbs (Debut)
  • 9 / 10 (47%) - Within first four of market
  • 9 / 10 (59%) - Held an OR of 138+
  • 8 / 10 (63%) - Fewer than 13 hurdle starts
  • 8 / 10 (81%) - Carried less than 11-9 (LTO)

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Ffos Las racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Welsh Champion Hurdle. If there is anything that you do not understand in this blog, please do leave a comment or alternatively, head over to the Horse Racing Terms and Abbreviations article which is available in the OLBG Betting School section.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not! With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then why share your thoughts on the Welsh Champion Hurdle by adding a tip on the race here.

Welsh Champion Hurdle Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 5+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +18.79 is when runners ran at Cheltenham last time out. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners were GB bred, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-20.

The course which has produced the most winners of the Welsh Champion Hurdle is Cheltenham, there has been a total number of 5 winners of this race who ran at Cheltenham last time out.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 10 winners from a total of 88 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 5 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have been disappointed with multiple attempts but no wins in the Welsh Champion Hurdle, that stallion is Kayf Tara who has failed to produce a winner from 5 runners.

Looking at the winning odds over the last 10 renewals, the biggest priced winner was Sceau Royal in 2020 when winning for Alan King at odds of 10/1 under the guidance of Daryl Jacob. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 10 renewals there has been a total of 3 winning favourites in the race. Before placing your bet on the 2022 Welsh Champion Hurdle see which other runners today are being back by the best racing tipsters today.

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