You know how punters get lost in too much data or bet blindly? I break down the stats and trends so you can feel confident you’re betting with more than just gut instinct.
2026 Manifesto Novices' Chase Preview
Scheduled to take place in April of each year at the Aintree racecourse is the Manifesto Novices Chase, the Grade 1 chase which is open to novices only, meaning those who came into the season without a win over fences are eligible, and it is run during the Grand National meeting.
The race is open to runners aged five or older and is run over two miles and four furlongs, where these novices will face sixteen fences.
For sponsorship purposes, the 2026 renewal of the Manifesto Novices' Chase will hold the title of 'William Hill Manifesto Novices Chase'.
Manifesto Novices' Chase Information:
- Manifesto Novices' Chase Past Winners
- Manifesto Novices' Chase Trainer Statistics
- Manifesto Novices' Chase Jockey Statistics
To see which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are tipping throughout the card that includes this race, head over to the Aintree tips on the day of the race. Do they agree with the runners on the trend shortlist, or are they predicting other runners? We cover every race at the Aintree Grand National Meeting, and below you can find links to all of the races for each of Thursday, Friday & Saturday.
Best Horse Racing Betting Sites 2026
How competitive is the Manifesto Novices' Chase market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 16 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2024, when the race had an over-round of 108%. The race in 2025 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 114%, whilst on average over the last 16 renewals of the Manifesto Novices' Chase, the over-round has been 111%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £111 which is bet.
Below you will find the 2026 Manifesto Novices' Chase Trends. See which patterns have occurred over the recent renewals that you may be able to use for the next renewal. We also have a section that looks at the Manifesto Novices' Chase Trend Analysis. With the field now finalised, we have the Manifesto Novices' Chase Trend Shortlist, which is created using the listed trends.
These are the top three quickest-run Manifesto Novices' Chase races over the last 16 renewals:
- Clarcam (4:58.40) in 2015
- Impaire Et Passe (4:58.58) in 2025
- Banbridge (4:59.24) in 2023
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? Over the past 16 renewals, if you had followed the winner of the Manifesto Novices' Chase next time out, then you would have backed a total of 3 winners. Backing all 15 runners who have been out since their win at SP next time out would have returned an LSP of -2.75. Ahead of the 2026 Manifesto Novices' Chase, why not head over to the racing predictions for tips on other races today?
Over the last 16 renewals, it was Clarcam, trained by Gordon Elliott and ridden by R Walsh, who set the fastest winning time in the Manifesto Novices' Chase. That runner won the race in a time of 4:58.40 in 2015. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer Colin Tizzard and jockey Robbie Power with Finians Oscar who set the slowest winning time; the race-winning time was 5:16.00 in the 2018 renewal.
What the expert says...
Andy Powell - Horse Racing Betting Expert - OLBG.com
| 2:20 Aintree 09 Apr @ 14:20 - Daily Racing | ||
|---|---|---|
| Lulamba | 1.57 | |
| Koktail Divin | 4.00 | |
| Jax Junior | 9.50 | |
| Mambonumberfive | 15.00 | |
| Blueking Doroux | 29.00 | |
Manifesto Novices' Chase Past Winners
Here are the Manifesto Novices' Chase past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse that won, and the horse's age & weight. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the Manifesto Novices' Chase are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 4:58.58 | Impaire Et Passe (FR) 7yo 11-7 9/4 | Paul Townend W P Mullins (IRE) |
| 2024 5:13.47 | Il Etait Temps (FR) 6yo 11-7 3/1 | Paul Townend W P Mullins (IRE) |
| 2023 4:59.24 | Banbridge (IRE) 7yo 11-7 2/1 | J J Slevin Joseph Patrick O'Brien (IRE) |
| 2022 5:09.61 | Millers Bank (GB) 8yo 11-4 7/1 | Kielan Woods Alex Hales (GB) |
| 2021 5:05.60 | Protektorat (FR) 6yo 11-4 17/2 | Harry Skelton Dan Skelton (GB) |
| 2019 5:05.90 | Kalashnikov (IRE) 6yo 11-4 4/1 | Jack Quinlan Amy Murphy (GB) |
| 2018 5:16.00 | Finians Oscar (IRE) 6yo 11-4 5/2 | Robbie Power Colin Tizzard (GB) |
| 2017 5:01.60 | Flying Angel (IRE) 6yo 11-4 5/1 | Noel Fehily Nigel Twiston-Davies (GB) |
| 2016 5:08.20 | Arzal (FR) 6yo 11-4 4/1 | Gavin Sheehan Harry Whittington (GB) |
| 2015 4:58.40 | Clarcam (FR) 5yo 11-4 5/1 | R Walsh Gordon Elliott (IRE) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Manifesto Novices' Chase have been based:
- GB: 12 winners with an additional 16 placings from 84 runners
- IRE: 4 winners with an additional 3 placings from 17 runners
- FR: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
2025 Manifesto Novices' Chase Replay
Manifesto Novices' Chase Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the Manifesto Novices' Chase over the last 16 renewals is Nicky Henderson, who has won the race two times, with those two winners coming from Mad Max (2010) and Captain Conan (2013). One trainer has not had the best of times in the Manifesto Novices' Chase; Paul Nicholls has sent a total of 17 runners to the race without recording a win.
Here are the Manifesto Novices' Chase trainer statistics over the last 16 renewals for trainers who have entries in the 2026 renewal; those not listed have not had a runner. (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nicky Henderson | 10-2-5 | -2.80 | -2.43 |
| Paul Nicholls | 17-0-3 | -17.00 | -13.84 |
| Henry De Bromhead | 3-0-1 | -3.00 | -2.23 |
| Ben Pauling | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
Manifesto Novices' Chase Jockey Statistics
Here are the Manifesto Novices' Chase jockey statistics over the last 16 renewals for jockeys who have rides in the 2026 renewal; those not listed have not had a runner. (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Cobden (Blueking dOroux) | 5-0-1 | -5.00 | -4.00 |
| Nico de Boinville (Lulamba) | 4-0-1 | -4.00 | -3.35 |
2026 Manifesto Novices' Chase Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): F, 2, 2, 3, 1, 2, 4, 3, 3, 4, 2, PU, 4, 5, 3, 3
The percentage shown is the proportion of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones, as you would expect them to do well.
- 16 / 16 (58%) - Break of 53 - 158 days (Last Win)
- 16 / 16 (62%) - Ran in 8 - 17 races (Career)
- 16 / 16 (66%) - No bigger than 17/2
- 16 / 16 (67%) - Held an OR of 144+ (LTO)
- 16 / 16 (68%) - Achieved an RPR of 150+ (Non-Hcps)
- 16 / 16 (71%) - Not in a G3/LST/Cl2/Cl4 (LTO)
- 16 / 16 (71%) - Ran in 8 - 16 races (Non-Hcps)
- 16 / 16 (75%) - Highest Placed is not G3/LST/Cl2-4
- 16 / 16 (75%) - Had 5 - 11 placings (Career)
- 16 / 16 (77%) - Not in a Handicap (LTO)
- 16 / 16 (79%) - Within the first 5 of the market
- 16 / 16 (81%) - Not in a LST/Cl4-5 (Last Win)
- 16 / 16 (82%) - Had 4 - 11 placings (Non-Hcps)
- 16 / 16 (85%) - Had 1 - 3 wins (Season)
- 16 / 16 (88%) - Achieved a TS of 68+ (Last Win)
Remember to use the trends listed above, along with the Aintree racing predictions, to see if you can find the winner of the Manifesto Novices' Chase. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles covering numerous topics.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, it is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Manifesto Novices' Chase by adding a tip on the race here.
101 Ways to find Winners in Horse Racing
Manifesto Novices' Chase Trend Shortlist
Aintree will host the 2026 renewal of the Manifesto Novices' Chase, which will be run at 2:20 pm on Thursday, 9th April 2026, and these are the runners who perform best based on the trends, along with the trainer, jockey and their record in the race (Runs-Wins-Places Win LSP / EW LSP):
- 15/15 Koktail Divin (7/2)
- Henry De Bromhead (3-0-1 -3.00 / -2.23)
- Darragh O'Keeffe (0-0-0 0.00 / 0.00)
Others: Lulamba (14/15), Mambonumberfive (14/15), Jax Junior (13/15) and Blueking dOroux (9/15).
*Trainer & Jockey numbers are Runs-Wins-Places Win LSP / EW LSP, Runners, Odds and Trends Passed/Failed correct at the time of posting (2:02 pm Tuesday 7th April 2026), if no odds were available at the time of posting, then forecasted odds are used.
Manifesto Novices' Chase Trend Analysis
✅ The trend factor, which has produced 8+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +12.75, is when runners were 2nd in the betting market.
❌ The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners last win was 1 start ago, when backing these, the trend shows a record of 0-30.
The course which has produced the most winners of the Manifesto Novices' Chase is Cheltenham; there have been a total of 11 winners of this race who ran at Cheltenham last time out.
The race is open to both sexes, with male runners having produced a total of 16 winners from a total of 96 runners, while female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 6 runners.
Looking at the winning odds over the last 16 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Protektorat in 2021, winning for Dan Skelton at odds of 17/2 under the guidance of Harry Skelton. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 16 renewals, there have been 1 winning favourites in the race. Before placing your bet on the 2026 Manifesto Novices' Chase, head over to see which runners the best racing tipsters are tipping today.
Route to the Manifesto Novices' Chase
Many trainers target races as preparation for the Manifesto Novices' Chase. These are the races which the recent winners ran in before coming here:
| Info | Last Race |
|---|---|
| 2025 - Impaire Et Passe Leopardstown - 3rd of 6 (11/4) | Ladbrokes Novice Chase |
| 2024 - Il Etait Temps Cheltenham - 3rd of 10 (7/2) | Arkle Challenge Trophy |
| 2023 - Banbridge Leopardstown - 2nd of 8 (8/1) | Irish Arkle Novice Chase |
| 2022 - Millers Bank Kempton - 2nd of 5 (5/2) | Coral Pendil Novices Chase |
| 2021 - Protektorat Kelso - 2nd of 3 (1/2) | Cheltenham Gold At timeform.com Novices Chase |
| 2019 - Kalashnikov Cheltenham - UR of 12 (6/1) | Arkle Challenge Trophy |
| 2018 - Finians Oscar Cheltenham - 5th of 9 (11/2) | Discontinued Golden Miller |
| 2017 - Flying Angel Cheltenham - 6th of 8 (9/1) | Discontinued Golden Miller |
| 2016 - Arzal Doncaster - 2nd of 5 (11/2) | grand-national2016.co.uk Lightning Novices Chase |
| 2015 - Clarcam Cheltenham - 8th of 11 (16/1) | Arkle Challenge Trophy |
Schedule for Thursday at the Aintree Grand National Meeting
The three-day Grand National meeting kicks off on Thursday with four Grade 1 events on the seven-race card, which features both the Aintree Hurdle and the Bowl Chase.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 13:45 Aintree Anniversary 4YO Juvenile Hurdle | Murcia (FR) 4yo - 11/4 | W P Mullins Paul Townend |
| 14:20 Aintree Manifesto Novices Chase | Impaire Et Passe (FR) 7yo - 9/4 | W P Mullins Paul Townend |
| 14:55 Aintree Bowl Chase | Gaelic Warrior (GER) 7yo - 11/4 | W P Mullins Mr P W Mullins |
| 15:30 Aintree Foxhunters Chase | Gracchus De Balme (FR) 9yo - 22/1 | J J O'Shea Mr Huw Edwards |
| 16:05 Aintree Aintree Hurdle | Lossiemouth (FR) 6yo - 5/4 | W P Mullins Paul Townend |
| 16:40 Aintree Red Rum Handicap Chase | Sans Bruit (FR) 7yo - 5/1 | Paul Nicholls Harry Cobden |
| 17:15 Aintree Nickel Coin Mares Bumper | Seo Linn (IRE) 5yo - 15/8 | P Twomey W J Lee |
Schedule for Friday at the Aintree Grand National Meeting
Day 2 of the Grand National meeting is Ladies Day or Fabulous Friday, the highlights on the track being the Melling Chase, plus there is the Topham Chase over the Grand National fences.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 13:45 Aintree William Hill Handicap Hurdle | Wellington Arch (GB) 6yo - 14/1 | Jonjo & A J O'Neill Jonjo O'Neill Jr |
| 14:20 Aintree Mildmay Novices Chase | Caldwell Potter (FR) 7yo - 11/4 | Paul Nicholls Harry Cobden |
| 14:55 Aintree Top Novices Hurdle | Salvator Mundi (FR) 5yo - 7/2 | W P Mullins Paul Townend |
| 15:30 Aintree Melling Chase | Jonbon (FR) 9yo - 4/6 | Nicky Henderson Nico de Boinville |
| 16:05 Aintree Topham Chase | Gentleman De Mee (FR) 9yo - 14/1 | W P Mullins Mark Walsh |
| 16:40 Aintree Sefton Novices Hurdle | Julius Des Pictons (FR) 6yo - 14/1 | Jamie Snowden Gavin Sheehan |
| 17:15 Aintree Debenhams Handicap Hurdle | Shes A Saint (IRE) 8yo - 25/1 | Dan Skelton Tristan Durrell |
Schedule for Saturday at the Aintree Grand National Meeting
The Grand National is obviously the showpiece of the Aintree meeting, and day 3 also includes three Grade 1 events, the feature of those being the Liverpool Hurdle.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 12:45 Aintree Maghull Novices Chase | Kalif Du Berlais (FR) 5yo - 15/8 | Paul Nicholls Harry Cobden |
| 13:20 Aintree William Hill Handicap Hurdle | Deep Cave (IRE) 7yo - 28/1 | Christian Williams Jack Tudor |
| 13:55 Aintree Mersey Novices Hurdle | Honesty Policy (IRE) 5yo - 5/1 | Gordon Elliott Mark Walsh |
| 14:30 Aintree William Hill Handicap Chase | Cruz Control (FR) 8yo - 10/1 | Tom Lacey Stan Sheppard |
| 15:05 Aintree Liverpool Hurdle | Hiddenvalley Lake (IRE) 8yo - 12/1 | Henry De Bromhead Darragh O'Keeffe |
| 16:00 Aintree Grand National | Nick Rockett (IRE) 8yo - 33/1 | W P Mullins Mr P W Mullins |
| 17:00 Aintree Champion Standard Open NH Flat Race | Green Splendour (GB) 5yo - 100/30 | W P Mullins Mr P W Mullins |
Article Contributor Information
We are fortunate to have an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to the creation and maintenance of this Manifesto Novices' Chase Preview are Andy and Darren. They both work on the Horse Racing Tips team, overseeing the tipsters and managing the tip settlement, while also creating and managing all the horse racing event previews for National Hunt Racing.
Darren Brett
Expert Guide
Andy Powell
Expert Guide
Other Principal Races at the Aintree Racecourse
Here are some other notable races at the Aintree racecourse throughout the racing season that you may be interested in.
