2023 Manifesto Novices Chase Preview, Trends & Analysis

Scheduled to take place in April of each year at the Aintree racecourse is the Manifesto Novices Chase, the Grade 1 chase which is open to novices only, meaning those who came into the season without a win over fences.

2023 Manifesto Novices Chase Preview, Trends & Analysis

2023 Manifesto Novices Chase Preview

Scheduled to take place in April of each year at the Aintree racecourse is the Manifesto Novices Chase, the Grade 1 chase which is open to novices only, meaning those who came into the season without a win over fences is run during the Grand National meeting. The race is open to runners aged five or older and is run over two miles and four furlongs where these novices' will face sixteen fences.

Manifesto Novices Chase Content:

Our dedicated Aintree Betting Picks will not only bring you predictions from the OLBG racing tipsters for the upcoming card that includes the Manifesto Novices Chase but will also have predictions for each meeting at Aintree throughout the season so be sure to head over there.

When looking over the past 13 renewals, a time of 4:58.40 was set by Clarcam in 2015, that is the quickest time over that period, the runner was trained by Gordon Elliott and ridden by R Walsh. The slowest winning time was set in 2018 when Finians Oscar won in a time of 5:16.00, booked to ride was Robbie Power on this Colin Tizzard trained runner.

These are the top three quickest run Manifesto Novices Chase over the last 13 renewals:

  • 2015 - Clarcam (4:58.40)
  • 2014 - Uxizandre (4:59.40)
  • 2017 - Flying Angel (5:01.60)

How competitive is the Manifesto Novices Chase market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 13 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2012 when the race had an over-round of 109%. The race in 2009 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 113%, whilst on average over the last 13 renewals of the Manifesto Novices Chase, the over-round has been 111%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £111 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 13 if you had followed the winner of the Manifesto Novices Chase next time out then you would have back a total of 1 winner. Backing all 11 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -7.25. Remember to bookmark the racing tips page so you can get easy access to the OLBG racing picks on a daily basis.

Manifesto Novices Chase Past Winners

Here are the Manifesto Novices Chase past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Manifesto Novices Chase as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse Info
2022
5:09.61
Millers Bank (GB)
8yo 11-4 7/1
Kielan Woods
Alex Hales (GB)
2021
5:05.60
Protektorat (FR)
6yo 11-4 17/2
Harry Skelton
Dan Skelton (GB)
2019
5:05.90
Kalashnikov (IRE)
6yo 11-4 4/1
Jack Quinlan
Amy Murphy (GB)
2018
5:16.00
Finians Oscar (IRE)
6yo 11-4 5/2
Robbie Power
Colin Tizzard (GB)
2017
5:01.60
Flying Angel (IRE)
6yo 11-4 5/1
Noel Fehily
Nigel Twiston-Davies (GB)
2016
5:08.20
Arzal (FR)
6yo 11-4 4/1
Gavin Sheehan
Harry Whittington (GB)
2015
4:58.40
Clarcam (FR)
5yo 11-4 5/1
R Walsh
Gordon Elliott (IRE)
2014
4:59.40
Uxizandre (FR)
6yo 11-4 11/4
A P McCoy
Alan King (GB)
2013
5:07.00
Captain Conan (FR)
6yo 11-4 6/5F
Barry Geraghty
Nicky Henderson (GB)
2012
5:06.20
Menorah (IRE)
7yo 11-4 3/1
Richard Johnson
Philip Hobbs (GB)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Manifesto Novices Chase have been based:

  • GB: 12 winners with an additional 13 placings from 72 runners
  • IRE: 1 winner with an additional 2 placings from 10 runners
  • FR: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner

Manifesto Novices Chase Trainer Statistics

There are two leading trainers in the Manifesto Novices Chase over the last 13 renewals with both Nicky Henderson & Philip Hobbs who have both won the race 2 times. Nicky Henderson winners have been with Mad Max (2010) & Captain Conan (2013). Philip Hobbs winners have been with Wishfull Thinking (2011) & Menorah (2012). There is one trainer who has not had the best of times in the Manifesto Novices Chase, Paul Nicholls has sent a total of 14 runners to the race without recording any wins.

Here are some of the top Manifesto Novices Chase trainer statistics over the last 13 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
Nicky Henderson 9-2-4 -1.80 -2.08
Philip Hobbs 4-2-3 +3.25 +2.12
Colin Tizzard 6-1-2 -2.50 -2.38
Gordon Elliott 4-1-1 +2.00 +0.13
Dan Skelton 3-1-2 +6.50 +4.81
Tom George 3-1-1 +3.50 +1.30
Alan King 3-1-2 +0.75 +0.45
Nigel Twiston-Davies 2-1-1 +4.00 +2.13
Alex Hales 1-1-1 +7.00 +4.38
Amy Murphy 1-1-1 +4.00 +2.50

Manifesto Novices Chase Jockey Statistics

Here are some of the top Manifesto Novices Chase jockey statistics over the last 13 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Harry Skelton 3-1-2 +6.50 +4.81
Paddy Brennan 2-1-1 +4.50 +2.30
Robbie Power 2-1-1 +1.50 +0.56
Kielan Woods 1-1-1 +7.00 +4.38
Jack Quinlan 1-1-1 +4.00 +2.50
Gavin Sheehan 1-1-1 +4.00 +2.40
Sam Twiston-Davies 5-0-1 -5.00 -4.22
Daryl Jacob 4-0-2 -4.00 -1.67
Aidan Coleman 4-0-0 -4.00 -4.00
Nico de Boinville 3-0-0 -3.00 -3.00

2023 Manifesto Novices Chase Trends

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,F,2,2,3,1,2,4,3,3,4,2,PU,4

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 13 / 13 (65%) - 8-18 Career starts
  • 13 / 13 (65%) - Avoid LTO winners or PFU
  • 13 / 13 (70%) - Held on OR of 148+
  • 13 / 13 (73%) - Made 8-17 starts (Non-Hcps)
  • 13 / 13 (73%) - Placed in at least a G2
  • 13 / 13 (75%) - Had 5-11 placings (Career)
  • 13 / 13 (76%) - Not in a Hcp LTO
  • 13 / 13 (77%) - Beaten no more 11½l (Debut)
  • 13 / 13 (78%) - Ran over 1m4½f - 2m5½f (Debut)
  • 12 / 13 (58%) - Last win within 53-145 days
  • 12 / 13 (59%) - Ran in G1/G2 LTO
  • 12 / 13 (67%) - Field of 5-17 (LTO)
  • 11 / 13 (51%) - Within first 3 of market
  • 11 / 13 (54%) - No bigger than 11/2
  • 11 / 13 (57%) - 4-6 Career wins
  • 11 / 13 (64%) - Carried 158-161lbs (LTO)
  • 11 / 13 (69%) - Ran over 2m - 2m4f (LTO)

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Aintree racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Manifesto Novices Chase. if you are unaware of what trends and statistics are, how they can be used etc then head over to the OLBG Betting School and have a read of this Stats And Trends article which will make everything much clearer.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not! With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then why share your thoughts on the Manifesto Novices Chase by adding a tip on the race here.

Manifesto Novices Chase Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 7+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +11.45 is when runners were aged 6yo. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners last win was 1 start ago, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-22.

The course which has produced the most winners of the Manifesto Novices Chase is Cheltenham, there has been a total number of 10 winners of this race who ran at Cheltenham last time out.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 13 winners from a total of 77 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 6 runners.

Looking at the winning odds over the last 13 renewals, the biggest priced winner was Protektorat in 2021 when winning for Dan Skelton at odds of 17/2 under the guidance of Harry Skelton. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 13 renewals there has been a total of 1 winning favourite in the race. Whilst we wait for the 2023 Manifesto Novices Chase remember you can get daily racing predictions from the top racing tipsters on the best racing tipsters page.

Schedule at The Aintree Grand National Meeting

Remember to head over to the Aintree predictions page to see which runner the racing tipsters are supporting in the Manifesto Novices Chase and don't forget that we also have a dedicated site for the 2023 Aintree Grand National. Below is the schedule for the 2023 Aintree Festival with links to each race blog as well as information for last year's winners.

Aintree Festival races for Thursday 13th April 2023

Race 2022 Winner Info
13:45 Cheltenham
Manifesto Novices Chase
Millers Bank (GB)
8yo - 7/1
Alex Hales
Kielan Woods
14:20 Cheltenham
Anniversary 4YO Juveniles Hurdle
Knight Salute (GB)
4yo - 14/1
Milton Harris
Paddy Brennan
14:55 Cheltenham
Bowl Chase
Clan Des Obeaux (FR)
10yo - 13/2
Paul Nicholls
Harry Cobden
15:30 Cheltenham
Aintree Hurdle
Epatante (FR)
8yo - 2/1
Nicky Henderson
Aidan Coleman
16:05 Cheltenham
Foxhunters Chase
Latenightpass (GB)
9yo - 7/2
T Ellis
Miss Gina Andrews
16:40 Cheltenham
Red Rum Handicap Chase
The Last Day (IRE)
10yo - 12/1
Evan Williams
Adam Wedge
17:15 Cheltenham
Nickel Coin Mares Bumper
Ashroe Diamond (IRE)
5yo - 9/4
W P Mullins
Mr P W Mullins

Aintree Festival races for Friday 14th April 2023

Race 2022 Winner Info
13:45 Cheltenham
20 Years Together Handicap Hurdle
Langer Dan (IRE)
6yo - 4/1
Dan Skelton
Harry Skelton
14:20 Cheltenham
Top Novices Hurdle
Jonbon (FR)
6yo - 1/1
Nicky Henderson
Aidan Coleman
14:55 Cheltenham
Mildmay Novices Chase
Ahoy Senor (IRE)
7yo - 4/1
Lucinda Russell
Derek Fox
15:30 Cheltenham
Marsh Chase
Fakir Doudairies (FR)
7yo - 10/11
Joseph Patrick OBrien
Mark Walsh
16:05 Cheltenham
Topham Chase
Mac Tottie (GB)
9yo - 8/1
Peter Bowen
Sean Bowen
16:40 Cheltenham
Sefton Novices Hurdle
Gelino Bello (FR)
6yo - 7/2
Paul Nicholls
Harry Cobden
17:15 Cheltenham
Park Palace Ponies Handicap Hurdle
Hacker Des Places (FR)
5yo - 10/1
Paul Nicholls
Angus Cheleda

Aintree Festival races for Saturday 15th April 2023

Race 2022 Winner Info
13:45 Cheltenham
EFT Construction Handicap Hurdle
Party Business (IRE)
6yo - 11/2
Ian Williams
Charlie Todd
14:25 Cheltenham
Mersey Novices Hurdle
Three Stripe Life (IRE)
6yo - 5/2
Gordon Elliott
Davy Russell
15:00 Cheltenham
Maghull Novices Chase
Gentleman De Mee (FR)
6yo - 7/2
W P Mullins
Mark Walsh
15:35 Cheltenham
Liverpool Hurdle
Sire Du Berlais (FR)
10yo - 16/1
Gordon Elliott
Mark Walsh
16:15 Cheltenham
Bway Handicap Chase
Sam Brown (GB)
10yo - 28/1
Anthony Honeyball
Aidan Coleman
17:15 Cheltenham
Grand National
Noble Yeats (IRE)
7yo - 50/1
Emmet Mullins
Mr Sam Waley-Cohen
18:20 Cheltenham
Champion Standard Open NH Flat Race
Lookaway (IRE)
5yo - 28/1
Neil King
Jack Quinlan

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