You know how punters get lost in too much data or bet blindly? I break down the stats and trends so you can feel confident you’re betting with more than just gut instinct.
2027 Manifesto Novices' Chase Preview
Scheduled to take place in April of each year at the Aintree racecourse is the Manifesto Novices Chase, the Grade 1 chase which is open to novices only, meaning those who came into the season without a win over fences are eligible, and it is run during the Grand National meeting.
The race is open to runners aged five or older and is run over two miles and four furlongs, where these novices will face sixteen fences.
Manifesto Novices' Chase Information:
- Manifesto Novices' Chase Past Winners
- Manifesto Novices' Chase Trainer Statistics
- Manifesto Novices' Chase Jockey Statistics
If you are looking at Aintree picks then you may be interested in the Grand National tips as this is the course showpiece race of the season, forty runners over the national fences is a favourite among racing fans. We cover every race at the Aintree Grand National Meeting, and below you can find links to all of the races for each of Thursday, Friday & Saturday.
Best Horse Racing Betting Sites 2026
How competitive is the Manifesto Novices' Chase market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 17 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2024, when the race had an over-round of 108%. The race in 2025 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 114%, whilst on average over the last 17 renewals of the Manifesto Novices' Chase, the over-round has been 111%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £111 which is bet.
Below you will find the 2027 Manifesto Novices' Chase Trends. See which patterns have occurred over the recent renewals that you may be able to use for the next renewal. We also have a section that looks at the Manifesto Novices' Chase Trend Analysis.
These are the top three quickest-run Manifesto Novices' Chase races over the last 17 renewals:
- Clarcam (4:58.40) in 2015
- Impaire Et Passe (4:58.58) in 2025
- Banbridge (4:59.24) in 2023
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? Over the past 17 renewals, if you had followed the winner of the Manifesto Novices' Chase next time out, then you would have backed a total of 3 winners. Backing all 15 runners who have been out since their win at SP next time out would have returned an LSP of -2.75. Whilst we wait for the 2027 Manifesto Novices' Chase, remember you can get daily racing predictions from the expert tipsters on the racing predictions page.
The runner that holds the record over the past 17 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2018 renewal when Finians Oscar from Colin Tizzard under the guidance of Robbie Power, won in a time of 5:16.00, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Clarcam, trained by Gordon Elliott and ridden by R Walsh set the quickest time of 4:58.40 in the 2015 renewal.
What the expert says...
Andy Powell - Horse Racing Betting Expert - OLBG.com
Manifesto Novices' Chase Past Winners
Here are the Manifesto Novices' Chase past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the race year, the winning horse, and the horse's age & weight. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the Manifesto Novices' Chase are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 5:01.24 | Koktail Divin (FR) 6yo 11-7 3/1 | Darragh O'Keeffe Henry De Bromhead (IRE) |
| 2025 4:58.58 | Impaire Et Passe (FR) 7yo 11-7 9/4 | Paul Townend W P Mullins (IRE) |
| 2024 5:13.47 | Il Etait Temps (FR) 6yo 11-7 3/1 | Paul Townend W P Mullins (IRE) |
| 2023 4:59.24 | Banbridge (IRE) 7yo 11-7 2/1 | J J Slevin Joseph Patrick O'Brien (IRE) |
| 2022 5:09.61 | Millers Bank (GB) 8yo 11-4 7/1 | Kielan Woods Alex Hales (GB) |
| 2021 5:05.60 | Protektorat (FR) 6yo 11-4 17/2 | Harry Skelton Dan Skelton (GB) |
| 2019 5:05.90 | Kalashnikov (IRE) 6yo 11-4 4/1 | Jack Quinlan Amy Murphy (GB) |
| 2018 5:16.00 | Finians Oscar (IRE) 6yo 11-4 5/2 | Robbie Power Colin Tizzard (GB) |
| 2017 5:01.60 | Flying Angel (IRE) 6yo 11-4 5/1 | Noel Fehily Nigel Twiston-Davies (GB) |
| 2016 5:08.20 | Arzal (FR) 6yo 11-4 4/1 | Gavin Sheehan Harry Whittington (GB) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Manifesto Novices' Chase have been based:
- GB: 12 winners with an additional 17 placings from 88 runners
- IRE: 5 winners with an additional 3 placings from 18 runners
- FR: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
2026 Manifesto Novices' Chase Replay
Manifesto Novices' Chase Trainer Statistics
There are multiple leading trainers in the Manifesto Novices' Chase over the last 17 renewals, with Nicky Henderson, Philip Hobbs, and W P Mullins having all won the race twice. Nicky Henderson winners have been with Mad Max (2010) and Captain Conan (2013). Philip Hobbs winners have been with Wishfull Thinking (2011) and Menorah (2012). W P Mullins winners have been with Il Etait Temps (2024) and Impaire Et Passe (2025). One trainer has not had the best of times in the Manifesto Novices' Chase; Paul Nicholls has sent a total of 18 runners to the race without recording a win.
Here are some of the top Manifesto Novices' Chase trainer statistics over the last 17 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nicky Henderson | 11-2-5 | -3.80 | -3.43 |
| Philip Hobbs | 4-2-3 | +3.25 | +2.12 |
| W P Mullins | 3-2-3 | +4.25 | +3.10 |
| Dan Skelton | 5-1-2 | +4.50 | +2.81 |
| Gordon Elliott | 5-1-1 | +1.00 | -0.87 |
| Henry De Bromhead | 4-1-2 | +0.00 | -0.35 |
| Tom George | 3-1-1 | +3.50 | +1.30 |
| Alan King | 3-1-2 | +0.75 | +0.45 |
| Nigel Twiston-Davies | 2-1-1 | +4.00 | +2.13 |
| Alex Hales | 1-1-1 | +7.00 | +4.38 |
Manifesto Novices' Chase Jockey Statistics
The leading jockey in the Manifesto Novices' Chase over the last 17 renewals is Paul Townend, who has won the race twice, with those two winners coming from Il Etait Temps (2024) and Impaire Et Passe (2025).
Here are some of the top Manifesto Novices' Chase jockey statistics over the last 17 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Townend | 2-2-2 | +5.25 | +3.23 |
| Harry Skelton | 5-1-2 | +4.50 | +2.81 |
| Gavin Sheehan | 2-1-1 | +3.00 | +1.40 |
| Kielan Woods | 1-1-1 | +7.00 | +4.38 |
| Jack Quinlan | 1-1-1 | +4.00 | +2.50 |
| Darragh O'Keeffe | 1-1-1 | +3.00 | +1.88 |
| J J Slevin | 1-1-1 | +2.00 | +1.25 |
| Harry Cobden | 6-0-2 | -6.00 | -1.75 |
| Sam Twiston-Davies | 5-0-1 | -5.00 | -4.22 |
| Nico de Boinville | 5-0-1 | -5.00 | -4.35 |
2027 Manifesto Novices' Chase Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): F, 2, 2, 3, 1, 2, 4, 3, 3, 4, 2, PU, 4, 5, 3, 3, UR
The percentage shown is the proportion of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones, as you would expect them to do well.
- 17 / 17 (59%) - Break of 53 - 158 days (Last Win)
- 17 / 17 (63%) - Ran in 8 - 17 races (Career)
- 17 / 17 (64%) - No bigger than 17/2
- 17 / 17 (67%) - Held an OR of 144+ (LTO)
- 17 / 17 (69%) - Achieved an RPR of 150+ (Non-Hcps)
- 17 / 17 (71%) - Not in a G3/LST/Cl2/Cl4 (LTO)
- 17 / 17 (71%) - Ran in 8 - 16 races (Non-Hcps)
- 17 / 17 (77%) - Highest Placed is not G3/LST/Cl2-4
- 17 / 17 (77%) - Had 5 - 11 placings (Career)
- 17 / 17 (78%) - Not in a Handicap (LTO)
- 17 / 17 (80%) - Within the first 5 of the market
- 17 / 17 (82%) - Not in a LST/Cl4-5 (Last Win)
- 17 / 17 (83%) - Had 4 - 11 placings (Non-Hcps)
- 17 / 17 (85%) - Had 1 - 3 wins (Season)
- 17 / 17 (89%) - Achieved a TS of 68+ (Last Win)
Remember to use the trends listed above, along with the Aintree racing predictions, to see if you can find the winner of the Manifesto Novices' Chase. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles covering numerous topics.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, it is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Manifesto Novices' Chase by adding a tip on the race here.
101 Ways to find Winners in Horse Racing
Manifesto Novices' Chase Trend Analysis
✅ The trend factor, which has produced 9+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +15.75, is when runners were 2nd in the betting market.
❌ The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners finished in 1st last time out, when backing these, the trend shows a record of 0-30.
The course which has produced the most winners of the Manifesto Novices' Chase is Cheltenham; there have been a total of 12 winners of this race who ran at Cheltenham last time out.
The race is open to both sexes, with male runners having produced a total of 17 winners from a total of 101 runners, while female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 6 runners.
Looking at the winning odds over the last 17 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Protektorat in 2021, winning for Dan Skelton at odds of 17/2 under the guidance of Harry Skelton. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 17 renewals, there have been 1 winning favourites in the race. Whilst we wait for the 2027 Manifesto Novices' Chase, remember you can get daily racing predictions from the top racing tipsters on the best racing tipsters page.
Route to the Manifesto Novices' Chase
Many trainers target races as preparation for the Manifesto Novices' Chase. These are the races which the recent winners ran in before coming here:
| Info | Last Race |
|---|---|
| 2026 - Koktail Divin Cheltenham - 6th of 14 (15/2) | Brown Advisory Novices' Chase |
| 2025 - Impaire Et Passe Leopardstown - 3rd of 6 (11/4) | Ladbrokes Novice Chase |
| 2024 - Il Etait Temps Cheltenham - 3rd of 10 (7/2) | Arkle Challenge Trophy |
| 2023 - Banbridge Leopardstown - 2nd of 8 (8/1) | Irish Arkle Novice Chase |
| 2022 - Millers Bank Kempton - 2nd of 5 (5/2) | Coral Pendil Novices Chase |
| 2021 - Protektorat Kelso - 2nd of 3 (1/2) | Cheltenham Gold At timeform.com Novices Chase |
| 2019 - Kalashnikov Cheltenham - UR of 12 (6/1) | Arkle Challenge Trophy |
| 2018 - Finians Oscar Cheltenham - 5th of 9 (11/2) | Discontinued Golden Miller |
| 2017 - Flying Angel Cheltenham - 6th of 8 (9/1) | Discontinued Golden Miller |
| 2016 - Arzal Doncaster - 2nd of 5 (11/2) | grand-national2016.co.uk Lightning Novices Chase |
Schedule for Thursday at the Aintree Grand National Meeting
The three-day Grand National meeting kicks off on Thursday with four Grade 1 events on the seven-race card, which features both the Aintree Hurdle and the Bowl Chase.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 13:45 Aintree Anniversary 4YO Juvenile Hurdle | Mange Tout (FR) 4yo - 5/1 | Gordon Elliott Jack Kennedy |
| 14:20 Aintree Manifesto Novices Chase | Koktail Divin (FR) 6yo - 3/1 | Henry De Bromhead Darragh O'Keeffe |
| 14:55 Aintree Bowl Chase | Jango Baie (FR) 7yo - 1/1 | Nicky Henderson Nico de Boinville |
| 15:30 Aintree Foxhunters Chase | Barton Snow (IRE) 9yo - 7/4 | J J O'Shea Mr Henry Crow |
| 16:05 Aintree Aintree Hurdle | Brighterdaysahead (FR) 7yo - 13/8 | Gordon Elliott Jack Kennedy |
| 16:40 Aintree Red Rum Handicap Chase | Ryans Rocket (IRE) 8yo - 14/1 | Fergal O'Brien Jonathan Burke |
| 17:15 Aintree Nickel Coin Mares Bumper | Nans Choice (IRE) 5yo - 9/2 | Dan Skelton Harry Skelton |
Schedule for Friday at the Aintree Grand National Meeting
Day 2 of the Grand National meeting is Ladies Day or Fabulous Friday, the highlights on the track being the Melling Chase, plus there is the Topham Chase over the Grand National fences.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 13:45 Aintree National Meeting 2m4f Handicap Hurdle | Wellington Arch (GB) 7yo - 6/1 | Jonjo & A J O'Neill Jonjo O'Neill Jr |
| 14:20 Aintree Mildmay Novices Chase | Gold Dancer (FR) 7yo - 100/30 | W P Mullins Paul Townend |
| 14:55 Aintree Top Novices Hurdle | Storming George (IRE) 6yo - 16/1 | Neil King Jack Quinlan |
| 15:30 Aintree Melling Chase | Grey Dawning (IRE) 9yo - 5/1 | Dan Skelton Harry Skelton |
| 16:05 Aintree Topham Chase | Will The Wise (IRE) 7yo - 9/1 | Gavin Cromwell Conor Stone-Walsh |
| 16:40 Aintree Sefton Novices Hurdle | Zeus Power (GER) 5yo - 3/1 | Joseph Patrick O'Brien J J Slevin |
| 17:15 Aintree National Meeting 2m Handicap Hurdle | Laafi (FR) 6yo - 20/1 | William Durkan Patrick M O'Brien |
Schedule for Saturday at the Aintree Grand National Meeting
The Grand National is obviously the showpiece of the Aintree meeting, and day 3 also includes three Grade 1 events, the feature of those being the Liverpool Hurdle.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 12:45 Aintree Maghull Novices Chase | Mirabad (FR) 7yo - 50/1 | Dan Skelton Tristan Durrell |
| 13:20 Aintree National Meeting 3m Handicap Hurdle | Wade Out (IRE) 7yo - 18/1 | Olly Murphy Gavin Sheehan |
| 13:55 Aintree Mersey Novices Hurdle | Bossman Jack (GB) 6yo - 11/4 | Dan Skelton Harry Skelton |
| 14:30 Aintree Freebooter Handicap Chase | Mr Hope Street (IRE) 8yo - 4/1 | Dan Skelton Harry Skelton |
| 15:05 Aintree Liverpool Hurdle | Home By The Lee (IRE) 11yo - 5/1 | Joseph Patrick O'Brien J J Slevin |
| 16:00 Aintree Grand National | I Am Maximus (FR) 10yo - 9/2 | W P Mullins Paul Townend |
| 17:00 Aintree Champion Standard Open NH Flat Race | Forthfactor (IRE) 5yo - 10/1 | Dan Skelton Miss Heidi Palin |
Article Contributor Information
We are fortunate to have an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to the creation and maintenance of this Manifesto Novices' Chase Preview are Andy and Darren. They both work on the Horse Racing Tips team, overseeing the tipsters and managing the tip settlement, while also creating and managing all the horse racing event previews for National Hunt Racing.
Darren Brett
Expert Guide
Andy Powell
Expert Guide
Other Principal Races at the Aintree Racecourse
Here are some other notable races at the Aintree racecourse throughout the racing season that you may be interested in.
