2023 Brown Advisory Novices Chase Preview, Trends & Analysis

A Grade 1 Chase run over three miles 110 yards, this is the Gold Cup for novice chasers and plenty of future stars will make the lineup. Bobs Worth and Lord Windermere did the double!

2023 Brown Advisory Novices Chase Preview, Trends & Analysis

2023 Brown Advisory Novices Chase Preview

The Brown Advisory Novices Chase is a Grade 1 run over three miles and one-hundred and ten yards at Cheltenham, previously known as the RSA Chase for sponsorship reasons over many years is the Gold Cup for novice chasers and plenty of future stars will make the lineup.

The 2012 winner of this race Bobs Worth and 2013 winner Lord Windermere both went onto Gold Cup glory the following season. 2017 winner Might Bite went on to win the Boxing Day showpiece King George VI Chase at Kempton before finishing runner up in the 2018 Gold Cup. Santini and Delta Work chased home Topofthegame in 2020 and yet again the form looks rock solid with Delta Work now a multiple Grade 1 chase winner.

With plenty of new rules from each bookie regarding BOG, familiarise yourself with which bookie offers what in the Best Odds Guaranteed article. Read on below for our preview including the race trends and form discussion to help you to find the winner of the Festival Novices Chase. Closer to the race, you can head over to the best bets for Cheltenham page to see what our expert racing tipsters are backing to win the race.

Brown Advisory Novices Chase Content:

Our dedicated Cheltenham Betting Picks will not only bring you predictions from the OLBG racing tipsters for the upcoming card that includes the Brown Advisory Novices Chase but will also have predictions for each meeting at Cheltenham throughout the season so be sure to head over there.

Over the last 20 renewals, it was the Rebecca Curtis trained OFaolains Boy ridden by Barry Geraghty who has set the fastest winning time in the Brown Advisory Novices Chase, the runner won the race in a time of 6:00.32 that was set when winning the race in 2014. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer Venetia Williams and jockey Charlie Deutsch with LHomme Presse who set the slowest winning time, the race-winning time was 6:34.86 in the 2022 renewal.

These are the top three quickest run Brown Advisory Novices Chase over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2014 - OFaolains Boy (6:00.32)
  • 2016 - Blaklion (6:06.20)
  • 2007 - Denman (6:06.80)

How competitive is the Brown Advisory Novices Chase market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2021 when the race had an over-round of 109%. The race in 2007 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 124%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Brown Advisory Novices Chase, the over-round has been 116%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £116 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Brown Advisory Novices Chase next time out then you would have back a total of 6 winners. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of +8.12. Whilst we wait for the 2023 Brown Advisory Novices Chase remember you can get daily racing predictions from the expert tipsters on the racing predictions page.

Brown Advisory Novices Chase 19 May @ 22:49 - AntePost
The Nice Guy 7.00
Minella Cocooner 11.00
Three Stripe Life 11.00
Mighty Potter 15.00
Jonbon 15.00
James Du Berlais 17.00
Gelino Bello 17.00
Blazing Khal 21.00
Hillcrest 21.00
Thyme Hill 21.00

Brown Advisory Novices Chase Past Winners

Here are the Brown Advisory Novices Chase past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Brown Advisory Novices Chase as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse Info
2022
6:34.86
LHomme Presse (FR)
7yo 11-4 9/4F
Charlie Deutsch
Venetia Williams (GB)
2021
6:11.08
Monkfish (IRE)
7yo 11-4 1/4F
Paul Townend
W P Mullins (IRE)
2020
6:28.67
Champ (IRE)
8yo 11-4 4/1
Barry Geraghty
Nicky Henderson (GB)
2019
6:17.26
Topofthegame (IRE)
7yo 11-4 4/1
Harry Cobden
Paul Nicholls (GB)
2018
6:32.40
Presenting Percy (GB)
7yo 11-4 5/2F
Davy Russell
Patrick G Kelly (IRE)
2017
6:08.80
Might Bite (IRE)
8yo 11-4 7/2F
Nico de Boinville
Nicky Henderson (GB)
2016
6:06.20
Blaklion (GB)
7yo 11-4 8/1
Ryan Hatch
Nigel Twiston-Davies (GB)
2015
6:09.20
Don Poli (IRE)
6yo 11-4 13/8F
B J Cooper
W P Mullins (IRE)
2014
6:00.32
OFaolains Boy (IRE)
7yo 11-4 12/1
Barry Geraghty
Rebecca Curtis (GB)
2013
6:25.80
Lord Windermere (IRE)
7yo 11-4 8/1
Davy Russell
J H Culloty (IRE)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Brown Advisory Novices Chase have been based:

  • GB: 12 winners with an additional 22 placings from 138 runners
  • IRE: 8 winners with an additional 16 placings from 75 runners
  • FR: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 4 runners

Brown Advisory Novices Chase Trainer Statistics

There are two leading trainers in the Brown Advisory Novices Chase over the last 20 renewals with both W P Mullins & Nicky Henderson who have both won the race 4 times. W P Mullins winners have been with Rule Supreme (2004), Cooldine (2009), Don Poli (2015) & Monkfish (2021). Nicky Henderson winners have been with Trabolgan (2005), Bobs Worth (2012), Might Bite (2017) & Champ (2020). The only other trainer to have recorded multiple wins in the Brown Advisory Novices Chase is Paul Nicholls (3 wins). There is one trainer who has not had the best of times in the Brown Advisory Novices Chase, Colin Tizzard has sent a total of 13 runners to the race without recording any wins.

Here are some of the top Brown Advisory Novices Chase trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
W P Mullins 27-4-10 +6.13 +2.94
Nicky Henderson 20-4-9 +1.00 -0.68
Paul Nicholls 17-3-5 +5.20 -0.50
Nigel Twiston-Davies 8-1-2 +1.00 +0.80
Philip Hobbs 6-1-2 +2.50 +1.00
Mrs John Harrington 4-1-2 +13.00 +13.70
Jonjo O'Neill 4-1-2 +1.00 +0.05
Rebecca Curtis 3-1-1 +10.00 +5.20
Venetia Williams 3-1-1 +0.25 -0.65
C Byrnes 2-1-1 +9.00 +5.00

Brown Advisory Novices Chase Jockey Statistics

The leading jockey in the Brown Advisory Novices Chase over the last 20 renewals is Davy Russell who has won the race 3 times. Those 3 winners came from Weapons Amnesty (2010), Lord Windermere (2013) & Presenting Percy (2018).

Here are some of the top Brown Advisory Novices Chase jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Davy Russell 13-3-7 +10.50 +6.29
Paul Townend 8-1-5 -6.75 +0.11
Robbie Power 7-1-3 +10.00 +16.20
B J Cooper 5-1-2 -2.37 -1.52
Harry Cobden 4-1-2 +1.00 +0.80
Nico de Boinville 4-1-2 +0.50 -0.10
Charlie Deutsch 1-1-1 +2.25 +1.35
Paddy Brennan 7-0-2 -7.00 -2.95
Aidan Coleman 5-0-0 -5.00 -5.00
Tom Scudamore 5-0-0 -5.00 -5.00

2023 Brown Advisory Novices Chase Trends

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,5,3,2,PU,1,1,1,5,5,4,4,(2,4),1,3,1,1,3,3,1,1

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (80%) - Off a 24-77 day break
  • 20 / 20 (83%) - Ran over 1m7½f-2m5½f (Debut)
  • 20 / 20 (84%) - No further than 3m (Last Win)
  • 20 / 20 (84%) - Placed within past 24-103 days
  • 20 / 20 (85%) - Made 3-7 starts (1 Year)
  • 20 / 20 (85%) - No bigger than 33/1
  • 20 / 20 (85%) - Beaten no more 9l (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (86%) - Made 6-15 starts (Non-Hcps)
  • 20 / 20 (86%) - Had 4-10 placings (Non-Hcps)
  • 20 / 20 (87%) - Field of 6-20 (Debut)
  • 20 / 20 (88%) - No more than 1 career fall
  • 19 / 20 (68%) - Made 8-16 starts (Career)
  • 19 / 20 (76%) - Within first 8 of the betting
  • 19 / 20 (76%) - Made 3-6 starts (Season)
  • 19 / 20 (82%) - Had 2-4 placings (Season)
  • 18 / 20 (70%) - Made 3-5 starts (Fences)
  • 18 / 20 (71%) - Had 5-10 placings (Career)

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Cheltenham racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Brown Advisory Novices Chase. You may want to do your own research into the race, there are times when there are a number of runners who pass the trends so you need to do your own research to find a bet, we have a Horse Racing Form Reading Made Easy & What to Look For article to help you do just this in the OLBG Betting School section.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not! With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then why share your thoughts on the Brown Advisory Novices Chase by adding a tip on the race here.

Brown Advisory Novices Chase Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +4.50 is when runners ran on Soft ground on debut. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 5 career wins in Non-Handicap races, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-34.

The course which has produced the most winners of the Brown Advisory Novices Chase is Leopardstown, there has been a total number of 6 winners of this race who ran at Leopardstown last time out. The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Ascot, there has been a total number of 3 winners of this race who ran at Ascot last time out.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 20 winners from a total of 209 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 8 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Brown Advisory Novices Chase:

  • Oscar (2 Wins)
  • Presenting (2 Wins)

Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have been disappointed with multiple attempts but no wins in the Brown Advisory Novices Chase, that stallion is Old Vic who has failed to produce a winner from 7 runners.

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest priced winner was Rule Supreme in 2004 when winning for W P Mullins at odds of 25/1 under the guidance of D J Casey. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 8 winning favourites in the race. Remember to bookmark the best racing tipsters page so you can get easy access to the best OLBG racing tipsters.

Schedule at the Cheltenham Festival

Have a look at our racing tipsters Cheltenham predictions for the Brown Advisory Novices Chase. Next up is the Coral Cup (Link), head over to find trends and tips.

Cheltenham Festival races for Tuesday 14th March 2023

Race 2022 Winner Info
13:30 Cheltenham
Supreme Novices Hurdle
Constitution Hill (GB)
5yo - 9/4
Nicky Henderson
Nico de Boinville
14:10 Cheltenham
Arkle Challenge Trophy
Edwardstone (GB)
8yo - 5/2
Alan King
Tom Cannon
14:50 Cheltenham
Ultima Handicap Chase
Corach Rambler (IRE)
8yo - 10/1
Lucinda Russell
Derek Fox
15:30 Cheltenham
Champion Hurdle
Honeysuckle (GB)
8yo - 8/11
Henry De Bromhead
Rachael Blackmore
16:10 Cheltenham
Close Brothers Mares Hurdle
Maries Rock (IRE)
7yo - 18/1
Nicky Henderson
Nico de Boinville
16:50 Cheltenham
Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
Brazil (IRE)
4yo - 10/1
Padraig Roche
Mark Walsh
17:30 Cheltenham
National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup
Stattler (IRE)
7yo - 2/1
W P Mullins
Mr P W Mullins

Cheltenham Festival races for Wednesday 15th March 2023

Race 2022 Winner Info
13:30 Cheltenham
Ballymore Novices Hurdle
Sir Gerhard (IRE)
7yo - 8/11
W P Mullins
Paul Townend
14:10 Cheltenham
Brown Advisory Novices Chase
LHomme Presse (FR)
7yo - 9/4
Venetia Williams
Charlie Deutsch
14:50 Cheltenham
Coral Cup (Link)
Commander Of Fleet (IRE)
8yo - 50/1
Gordon Elliott
Shane Fitzgerald
15:30 Cheltenham
Queen Mother Champion Chase
Energumene (FR)
8yo - 5/2
W P Mullins
Paul Townend
16:10 Cheltenham
Cross Country Chase
Delta Work (FR)
9yo - 5/2
Gordon Elliott
Jack Kennedy
16:50 Cheltenham
Johnny Henderson Grand Annual
Global Citizen (IRE)
10yo - 28/1
Ben Pauling
Kielan Woods
17:30 Cheltenham
Champion Bumper
Facile Vega (IRE)
5yo - 15/8
W P Mullins
Mr P W Mullins

Cheltenham Festival races for Thursday 16th March 2023

Race 2022 Winner Info
13:30 Cheltenham
Turners Novices Chase
Bob Olinger (IRE)
7yo - 6/5
Henry De Bromhead
Rachael Blackmore
14:10 Cheltenham
Pertemps Network Final
Third Wind (GB)
8yo - 25/1
Hughie Morrison
Tom OBrien
14:50 Cheltenham
Ryanair Chase
Allaho (FR)
8yo - 4/7
W P Mullins
Paul Townend
15:30 Cheltenham
Stayers Hurdle
Flooring Porter (IRE)
7yo - 4/1
Gavin Cromwell
Danny Mullins
16:10 Cheltenham
Festival Plate
Coole Cody (IRE)
11yo - 22/1
Evan Williams
Adam Wedge
16:50 Cheltenham
Ryanair Mares Novices Hurdle
Love Envoi (IRE)
6yo - 15/2
Harry Fry
Jonathan Burke
17:30 Cheltenham
Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup
Chambard (FR)
10yo - 40/1
Venetia Williams
Miss Lucy Turner

Cheltenham Festival races for Friday 17th March 2023

Race 2022 Winner Info
13:30 Cheltenham
JCB Triumph Hurdle
Vauban (FR)
4yo - 6/4
W P Mullins
Paul Townend
14:10 Cheltenham
County Handicap Hurdle
State Man (FR)
5yo - 11/4
W P Mullins
Paul Townend
14:50 Cheltenham
Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle
The Nice Guy (IRE)
7yo - 18/1
W P Mullins
Sean OKeeffe
15:30 Cheltenham
Cheltenham Gold Cup
A Plus Tard (FR)
8yo - 3/1
Henry De Bromhead
Rachael Blackmore
16:10 Cheltenham
Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup
Billaway (IRE)
10yo - 13/8
W P Mullins
Mr P W Mullins
16:50 Cheltenham
Mrs PP Mares Chase
Elimay (FR)
8yo - 9/4
W P Mullins
Mark Walsh
17:30 Cheltenham
Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle
Banbridge (IRE)
6yo - 12/1
Joseph Patrick OBrien
M M McDonagh

No Comments

There are no comments here. Be the first to comment...

Please login or register to reply to this blog

By using this site you confirm you are 18+ and consent to our use of cookies and processing of personal data as set out in our Privacy Policy
Got it!

We detected you are connecting from United States. We have a different section in our site for users from your country.

You are not logged in.
__user_name_placeholder__ avatar Hi, username! Logout