2022 November Novices Chase Preview, Trends & Analysis - November Meeting

Published: Oct 21, 7:32pm Last Updated: Nov 15, 12:05pm Horse Racing 0 Comments 46 Views

2022 November Novices Chase Preview

The November Novices' Chase takes place during the November Meeting at Cheltenham Racecourse each year, the race for sponsorship purposes is currently known as the Racing Post Arkle Trophy Trial Novices' Chase. The race is a Grade 3 that is run over two miles in which the runners will face twelve fences, runners aged four or older and are novices over fences are eligible to enter.

Why not use the trends shortlist below to help you narrow down the field and then head over to the dedicated Cheltenham Betting Picks page to see which of those runners are being supported by the OLBG expert racing tipsters to find yourself a bet.

The runner that holds the record over the past 20 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2012 renewal when Captain Conan from Nicky Henderson who under the guidance of Barry Geraghty, won in a time of 4:17.49, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Lalor, trained by Kayley Woollacott and ridden by Richard Johnson set the quickest time of 3:50.90 in the 2018 renewal.

These are the top three quickest run November Novices Chase over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2018 - Lalor (3:50.90)
  • 2011 - Al Ferof (3:54.90)
  • 2021 - Third Time Lucki (3:55.51)

How competitive is the November Novices Chase market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2002 when the race had an over-round of 107%. The race in 2006 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 115%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the November Novices Chase, the over-round has been 110% that means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £110 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the November Novices Chase next time out then you would have back a total of 10 winners. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of +16.41. Ahead of the 2022 November Novices Chase why not head over to the racing predictions for tips on other races today.

November Novices Chase Past Winners

Here are the November Novices Chase past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the November Novices Chase as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse Info
2021
3:55.51
Third Time Lucki (IRE)
6yo 11-5 2/5F
Harry Skelton
Dan Skelton (GB)
2020
4:04.41
Eldorado Allen (FR)
6yo 11-2 13/2
Robbie Power
Colin Tizzard (GB)
2019
4:09.63
Put The Kettle On (IRE)
5yo 10-9 6/1
Aidan Coleman
Henry De Bromhead (IRE)
2018
3:50.90
Lalor (GER)
6yo 11-2 11/2
Richard Johnson
Kayley Woollacott (GB)
2017
4:06.50
North Hill Harvey (GB)
6yo 11-5 6/4
Harry Skelton
Dan Skelton (GB)
2016
4:02.40
Le Prezien (FR)
5yo 11-2 8/11F
Barry Geraghty
Paul Nicholls (GB)
2015
4:03.70
Garde La Victoire (FR)
6yo 11-2 8/15F
Richard Johnson
Philip Hobbs (GB)
2014
4:08.30
Dunraven Storm (IRE)
9yo 11-2 7/2
Richard Johnson
Philip Hobbs (GB)
2013
4:00.81
Dodging Bullets (GB)
5yo 11-2 2/1
Daryl Jacob
Paul Nicholls (GB)
2012
4:17.49
Captain Conan (FR)
5yo 11-2 11/10F
Barry Geraghty
Nicky Henderson (GB)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the November Novices Chase have been based:

  • GB: 18 winners with an additional 15 placings from 92 runners
  • IRE: 2 winners with an additional 0 placings from 14 runners

November Novices Chase Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the November Novices Chase over the last 20 renewals is Paul Nicholls who has won the race 8 times. Those 8 winners came from Azertyuiop (2002), Thisthatandtother (2003), Tatenen (2008), Tataniano (2009), Ghizao (2010), Al Ferof (2011), Dodging Bullets (2013) & Le Prezien (2016). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the November Novices Chase are Philip Hobbs (3 wins) & Dan Skelton (2 wins).

Here are some of the top November Novices Chase trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
Paul Nicholls 22-8-13 -0.62 +3.53
Philip Hobbs 9-3-4 +1.36 -2.11
Dan Skelton 2-2-2 +1.90 +0.00
Nigel Twiston-Davies 10-1-2 -7.00 -2.44
Nicky Henderson 9-1-2 -6.90 -4.31
Colin Tizzard 5-1-1 +2.50 +0.06
Henry De Bromhead 5-1-1 +2.00 -4.00
Charlie Mann 1-1-1 +10.00 +6.00
Kayley Woollacott 1-1-1 +5.50 +3.44
Paul Nolan 1-1-1 +2.50 +1.50

November Novices Chase Jockey Statistics

The leading jockey in the November Novices Chase over the last 20 renewals is Harry Skelton who has won the race 2 times. Those 2 winners came from North Hill Harvey (2017) & Third Time Lucki (2021).

Here are some of the top November Novices Chase jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Harry Skelton 2-2-2 +1.90 +0.00
Aidan Coleman 5-1-1 +2.00 -3.00
Daryl Jacob 3-1-1 +0.00 -0.75
Robbie Power 2-1-1 +5.50 +4.06
Sam Twiston-Davies 6-0-1 -6.00 -1.69
Harry Cobden 4-0-2 -4.00 -0.19
Jamie Moore 3-0-2 -3.00 +1.44
Paddy Brennan 3-0-0 -3.00 -1.00
Tom Scudamore 2-0-0 -2.00 -2.00
Nico de Boinville 1-0-0 -1.00 +0.00

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,1,1,3,1,2,2,1,1,2,1,1,2,2,1,1,2,3,2,PU,1

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (84%) - Won within last 4 starts
  • 20 / 20 (85%) - No more than one DNF
  • 20 / 20 (88%) - Contested at least a G3
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - Never fallen over fences
  • 19 / 20 (59%) - Fewer than 2 starts (Chases)
  • 19 / 20 (63%) - No bigger than 13/2
  • 19 / 20 (78%) - Never gone further than 2m5f
  • 18 / 20 (71%) - No older than a 6yo
  • 18 / 20 (77%) - Finished first 2 (LTO)

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Cheltenham racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the November Novices Chase. If there is anything that you do not understand in this blog, please do leave a comment or alternatively, head over to the Horse Racing Terms and Abbreviations article which is available in the OLBG Betting School section.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not! With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then why share your thoughts on the November Novices Chase by adding a tip on the race here.

November Novices Chase Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +8.26 is when runners were aged 6yo. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 2 career wins over the trip, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-22.

The course which has produced the most winners of the November Novices Chase is Cheltenham, there has been a total number of 5 winners of this race who ran at Cheltenham last time out. The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Aintree, there has been a total number of 3 winners of this race who ran at Aintree last time out.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 19 winners from a total of 103 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 1 winner from a total of 3 runners.

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest priced winner was Moon Over Miami in 2007 when winning for Charlie Mann at odds of 10/1 under the guidance of Noel Fehily. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 10 winning favourites in the race. Before placing your bet on the 2022 November Novices Chase see which other runners today are being back by the best racing tipsters today.

Other Principal races at Cheltenham racecourse

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