2023 Ultima Handicap Chase Preview, Trends & Analysis

A 3m1f Handicap Chase normally run at a good speed and can therefore, be a real test of stamina. The race often features past and future Grand National Runners. Despite being a handicap it's been a good race for punters.

2023 Ultima Handicap Chase Preview, Trends & Analysis

2023 Ultima Handicap Chase Preview

The Ultima Handicap Chase features on the opening day of the festival at the Cheltenham racecourse, it is also known as the Festival Trophy Handicap Chase. A 3m1f Handicap Chase normally run at a good speed and can, therefore, be a real test of stamina. The race often features past and future Grand National Runners.

Despite being a handicap this has been a good race for punters over the years with horses near the front of the market showing a good return. Below we highlight some key pointers, looking at trends and discussing the form to help you to find the winner of the Ultima Handicap Chase. We have some very knowledgeable racing tipsters on OLBG and some who specialise in handicaps at the festival so why not head over to see their Cheltenham predictions.

Ultima Handicap Chase Content:

If you are interested in other predictions at Cheltenham then head over to the Cheltenham Betting Picks page to see which runners are being supported by the OLBG racing tipsters and also compare those predictions to the runners that make the trend shortlist when added below.

When looking over the past 20 renewals, a time of 6:01.80 was set by Holywell in 2014, that is the quickest time over that period, the runner was trained by Jonjo O'Neill and ridden by Richie McLernon. The slowest winning time was set in 2020 when The Conditional won in a time of 6:50.75, booked to ride was Brendan Powell on this David Bridgwater trained runner.

These are the top three quickest run Ultima Handicap Chase over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2014 - Holywell (6:01.80)
  • 2012 - Alfie Sherrin (6:08.60)
  • 2005 - Kelami (6:08.60)

How competitive is the Ultima Handicap Chase market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2004 when the race had an over-round of 114%. The race in 2022 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 136%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Ultima Handicap Chase, the over-round has been 127%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £127 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Ultima Handicap Chase next time out then you would have back a total of 1 winner. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -14.50. Remember to use the racing predictions along with the information on this page to find you a bet on the 2023 Ultima Handicap Chase.

Ultima Handicap Chase Past Winners

Here are the Ultima Handicap Chase past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Ultima Handicap Chase as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse Info
2022
6:18.26
Corach Rambler (IRE)
8yo 10-2 10/1
Derek Fox
Lucinda Russell (GB)
2021
6:31.00
Vintage Clouds (IRE)
11yo 10-11 28/1
Ryan Mania
Sue Smith (GB)
2020
6:50.75
The Conditional (IRE)
8yo 10-6 15/2
Brendan Powell
David Bridgwater (GB)
2019
6:39.02
Beware The Bear (IRE)
9yo 11-8 10/1
Jeremiah McGrath
Nicky Henderson (GB)
2018
6:47.50
Coo Star Sivola (FR)
6yo 10-10 5/1F
Lizzie Kelly (3lbs)
Nick Williams (GB)
2017
6:20.00
Un Temps Pour Tout (IRE)
8yo 11-12 9/1
Tom Scudamore
David Pipe (GB)
2016
6:17.80
Un Temps Pour Tout (IRE)
7yo 11-7 11/1
Tom Scudamore
David Pipe (GB)
2015
6:19.20
The Druids Nephew (IRE)
8yo 11-3 8/1
Barry Geraghty
Neil Mulholland (GB)
2014
6:01.80
Holywell (IRE)
7yo 11-6 10/1
Richie McLernon
Jonjo O'Neill (GB)
2013
6:19.80
Golden Chieftain (IRE)
8yo 10-2 28/1
Brendan Powell (3lbs)
Colin Tizzard (GB)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Ultima Handicap Chase have been based:

  • GB: 16 winners with an additional 49 placings from 355 runners
  • IRE: 2 winners with an additional 7 placings from 42 runners
  • FR: 2 winners with an additional 2 placings from 15 runners

Ultima Handicap Chase Trainer Statistics

There are two leading trainers in the Ultima Handicap Chase over the last 20 renewals with both Jonjo O'Neill & David Pipe who have both won the race 3 times. Jonjo O'Neill winners have been with Wichita Lineman (2009), Alfie Sherrin (2012) & Holywell (2014). David Pipe winners have been with An Accordion (2008), Un Temps Pour Tout (2016) & Un Temps Pour Tout (2017). The only other trainer to have recorded multiple wins in the Ultima Handicap Chase is Alan King (2 wins). There are multiple trainers who have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Ultima Handicap Chase, Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-26), Venetia Williams (0-22) & Paul Nicholls (0-19) have all failed to produce a single winner despite sending multiple runners to the race.

Here are some of the top Ultima Handicap Chase trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
Jonjo O'Neill 22-3-5 +10.00 +4.63
David Pipe 19-3-7 +11.00 +7.33
Alan King 14-2-3 +0.00 -3.11
Nicky Henderson 25-1-8 -14.00 +8.02
Colin Tizzard 15-1-2 +14.00 +6.75
Sue Smith 13-1-4 +16.00 +16.13
Neil Mulholland 11-1-2 -2.00 -2.75
Lucinda Russell 5-1-3 +6.00 +8.75
A J Martin 5-1-2 +3.00 +2.01
Nick Williams 5-1-3 +1.00 +3.01

Ultima Handicap Chase Jockey Statistics

The leading jockey in the Ultima Handicap Chase over the last 20 renewals is Tom Scudamore who has won the race 3 times. Those 3 winners came from An Accordion (2008), Un Temps Pour Tout (2016) & Un Temps Pour Tout (2017). Other jockeys who have recorded multiple wins in the Ultima Handicap Chase are Richie McLernon (2 wins) & Brendan Powell (2 wins). There are two jockeys who have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Ultima Handicap Chase, Aidan Coleman has had a total of 11 rides to the race without recording any wins whilst Sam Twiston-Davies has had 10 rides without a winner.

Here are some of the top Ultima Handicap Chase jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Tom Scudamore 16-3-5 +14.00 +8.02
Richie McLernon 7-2-3 +19.00 +11.50
Brendan Powell 4-2-2 +33.50 +20.19
Davy Russell 9-1-4 +42.00 +28.19
Derek Fox 3-1-2 +8.00 +8.25
Jeremiah McGrath 3-1-2 +8.00 +6.50
Ryan Mania 2-1-1 +27.00 +16.50
Aidan Coleman 11-0-0 -11.00 -11.00
Sam Twiston-Davies 10-0-0 -10.00 -10.00
Paddy Brennan 8-0-0 -8.00 -8.00

2023 Ultima Handicap Chase Trends

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,(3,11),8,9,PU,(2,3,6),3,1,2,F,(7,10),2,8,8,7,2,1,(8,PU,PU),(3,4),2,10

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (79%) - At least an 18 day break
  • 20 / 20 (80%) - Is either a Bay or a Grey
  • 20 / 20 (81%) - Won over at least 2m5½f
  • 20 / 20 (81%) - Furthest placed of 3m - 4m1f
  • 20 / 20 (87%) - Highest placed not a Class 2
  • 20 / 20 (87%) - Made 3-10 starts (1 Year)
  • 20 / 20 (87%) - Beaten no more 35l (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - Made 2-7 starts (Season)
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - Made 2-7 starts (180 Days)
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - Ran over 2m4½f - 3m5½f (LTO)
  • 19 / 20 (71%) - Fewer than 5 non-finishes (Career)
  • 19 / 20 (78%) - Not 5lbs+ vs race ave OR
  • 19 / 20 (83%) - Fewer than 6 wins (Fences)
  • 19 / 20 (86%) - Previously ran over 3m½f+
  • 19 / 20 (86%) - Not at Asc or Newb (LTO)
  • 19 / 20 (88%) - Ran over 1m4f - 2m5½f
  • 18 / 20 (67%) - Fewer than 2 falls (Career)
  • 18 / 20 (68%) - Finished in first 6 (LTO)
  • 18 / 20 (83%) - Aged between 7yo & 10yo

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Cheltenham racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Ultima Handicap Chase. You may want to do your own research into the race, there are times when there are a number of runners who pass the trends so you need to do your own research to find a bet, we have a Horse Racing Form Reading Made Easy & What to Look For article to help you do just this in the OLBG Betting School section.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not! With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then why share your thoughts on the Ultima Handicap Chase by adding a tip on the race here.

Ultima Handicap Chase Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +55.50 is when runners had recorded 1 career fall. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 2 career wins with the jockey, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-66.

The course which has produced the most winners of the Ultima Handicap Chase is Cheltenham, there has been a total number of 4 winners of this race who ran at Cheltenham last time out. The next best courses which have produced the second most winners are Doncaster and Haydock, there has been a total number of 3 winners from each of those courses.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 20 winners from a total of 405 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 7 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Ultima Handicap Chase:

  • Kings Theatre (2 Wins)
  • Robin Des Champs (2 Wins)

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Ultima Handicap Chase despite multiple attempts:

  • Flemensfirth (0 Wins from 14 runners)
  • Milan (0 Wins from 12 runners)
  • Presenting (0 Wins from 10 runners)
  • Old Vic (0 Wins from 9 runners)
  • Oscar (0 Wins from 9 runners)
  • Dom Alco (0 Wins from 8 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest priced winner was Joes Edge in 2007 when winning for Ferdy Murphy at odds of 50/1 under the guidance of Davy Russell. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 2 winning favourites in the race. Whilst we wait for the 2023 Ultima Handicap Chase remember you can get daily racing predictions from the top racing tipsters on the best racing tipsters page.

Schedule at the Cheltenham Festival

Have a look at our racing tipsters Cheltenham predictions for the Ultima Handicap Chase. Next up is the Champion Hurdle, head over to find trends and tips.

Cheltenham Festival races for Tuesday 14th March 2023

Race 2022 Winner Info
13:30 Cheltenham
Supreme Novices Hurdle
Constitution Hill (GB)
5yo - 9/4
Nicky Henderson
Nico de Boinville
14:10 Cheltenham
Arkle Challenge Trophy
Edwardstone (GB)
8yo - 5/2
Alan King
Tom Cannon
14:50 Cheltenham
Ultima Handicap Chase
Corach Rambler (IRE)
8yo - 10/1
Lucinda Russell
Derek Fox
15:30 Cheltenham
Champion Hurdle
Honeysuckle (GB)
8yo - 8/11
Henry De Bromhead
Rachael Blackmore
16:10 Cheltenham
Close Brothers Mares Hurdle
Maries Rock (IRE)
7yo - 18/1
Nicky Henderson
Nico de Boinville
16:50 Cheltenham
Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
Brazil (IRE)
4yo - 10/1
Padraig Roche
Mark Walsh
17:30 Cheltenham
National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup
Stattler (IRE)
7yo - 2/1
W P Mullins
Mr P W Mullins

Cheltenham Festival races for Wednesday 15th March 2023

Race 2022 Winner Info
13:30 Cheltenham
Ballymore Novices Hurdle
Sir Gerhard (IRE)
7yo - 8/11
W P Mullins
Paul Townend
14:10 Cheltenham
Brown Advisory Novices Chase
LHomme Presse (FR)
7yo - 9/4
Venetia Williams
Charlie Deutsch
14:50 Cheltenham
Coral Cup (Link)
Commander Of Fleet (IRE)
8yo - 50/1
Gordon Elliott
Shane Fitzgerald
15:30 Cheltenham
Queen Mother Champion Chase
Energumene (FR)
8yo - 5/2
W P Mullins
Paul Townend
16:10 Cheltenham
Cross Country Chase
Delta Work (FR)
9yo - 5/2
Gordon Elliott
Jack Kennedy
16:50 Cheltenham
Johnny Henderson Grand Annual
Global Citizen (IRE)
10yo - 28/1
Ben Pauling
Kielan Woods
17:30 Cheltenham
Champion Bumper
Facile Vega (IRE)
5yo - 15/8
W P Mullins
Mr P W Mullins

Cheltenham Festival races for Thursday 16th March 2023

Race 2022 Winner Info
13:30 Cheltenham
Turners Novices Chase
Bob Olinger (IRE)
7yo - 6/5
Henry De Bromhead
Rachael Blackmore
14:10 Cheltenham
Pertemps Network Final
Third Wind (GB)
8yo - 25/1
Hughie Morrison
Tom OBrien
14:50 Cheltenham
Ryanair Chase
Allaho (FR)
8yo - 4/7
W P Mullins
Paul Townend
15:30 Cheltenham
Stayers Hurdle
Flooring Porter (IRE)
7yo - 4/1
Gavin Cromwell
Danny Mullins
16:10 Cheltenham
Festival Plate
Coole Cody (IRE)
11yo - 22/1
Evan Williams
Adam Wedge
16:50 Cheltenham
Ryanair Mares Novices Hurdle
Love Envoi (IRE)
6yo - 15/2
Harry Fry
Jonathan Burke
17:30 Cheltenham
Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup
Chambard (FR)
10yo - 40/1
Venetia Williams
Miss Lucy Turner

Cheltenham Festival races for Friday 17th March 2023

Race 2022 Winner Info
13:30 Cheltenham
JCB Triumph Hurdle
Vauban (FR)
4yo - 6/4
W P Mullins
Paul Townend
14:10 Cheltenham
County Handicap Hurdle
State Man (FR)
5yo - 11/4
W P Mullins
Paul Townend
14:50 Cheltenham
Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle
The Nice Guy (IRE)
7yo - 18/1
W P Mullins
Sean OKeeffe
15:30 Cheltenham
Cheltenham Gold Cup
A Plus Tard (FR)
8yo - 3/1
Henry De Bromhead
Rachael Blackmore
16:10 Cheltenham
Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup
Billaway (IRE)
10yo - 13/8
W P Mullins
Mr P W Mullins
16:50 Cheltenham
Mrs PP Mares Chase
Elimay (FR)
8yo - 9/4
W P Mullins
Mark Walsh
17:30 Cheltenham
Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle
Banbridge (IRE)
6yo - 12/1
Joseph Patrick OBrien
M M McDonagh

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