2023 Classic Chase Preview, Trends & Analysis

Published: Jan 15, 11:10am Last Updated: Jan 16, 10:30am Horse Racing 0 Comments 275 Views

2023 Classic Chase Preview

The Classic Chase is scheduled to take place in January of each year at the Warwick Racecourse, the race was originally known as the Warwickshire Gold Cup and is a race in which plenty of the runners will go on to compete in the Aintree Grand National, One For Arthur who won this race in 2017 went on to win the Grand National.

The race is a Grade 3 handicap chase which is open to runners who are aged five or older, the race is run over a distance of three miles, five furlongs and fifty-four years in which a total of twenty-two fences will have to be jumped, because of the time of the year, this is a demanding race and you certainly need a runner with plenty of stamina.

If you are interested in other predictions at Warwick then head over to the Warwick Betting Picks page to see which runners are being supported by the OLBG racing tipsters and also compare those predictions to the runners that make the trend shortlist when added below.

Over the last 19 renewals, it was the Sue Smith trained The Last Fling ridden by Warren Marston who has set the fastest winning time in the Classic Chase, the runner won the race in a time of 6:48.40 that was set when winning the race in 2002. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer Kerry Lee and jockey Charlie Poste with Russe Blanc who set the slowest winning time, the race-winning time was 8:03.10 in the 2016 renewal.

These are the top three quickest run Classic Chase over the last 19 renewals:

  • 2002 - The Last Fling (6:48.40)
  • 2001 - Browjoshy (7:06.50)
  • 2019 - Impulsive Star (7:16.10)

How competitive is the Classic Chase market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 19 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2001 when the race had an over-round of 114%. The race in 2001 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 134%, whilst on average over the last 19 renewals of the Classic Chase, the over-round has been 121% that means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £121 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 19 if you had followed the winner of the Classic Chase next time out then you would have back a total of 1 winner. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -4.00. Remember to use the racing predictions along with the information on this page to find you a bet on the 2023 Classic Chase.

Classic Chase Past Winners

Here are the Classic Chase past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Classic Chase as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse Info
2022
7:40.56
Eclair Surf (FR)
8yo 11-3 11/1
Tom Bellamy
Emma Lavelle (GB)
2021
7:44.20
Notachance (IRE)
7yo 10-5 7/2F
Tom Cannon
Alan King (GB)
2020
7:43.20
Kimberlite Candy (IRE)
8yo 11-4 9/2
Richie McLernon
Tom Lacey (GB)
2019
7:16.10
Impulsive Star (IRE)
9yo 9-12 8/1
Mr Sam Waley-Cohen (3lbs)
Neil Mulholland (GB)
2018
7:40.90
Milansbar (IRE)
11yo 11-2 12/1
Bryony Frost (5lbs)
Neil King (GB)
2017
7:47.40
One For Arthur (IRE)
8yo 10-11 14/1
Derek Fox
Lucinda Russell (GB)
2016
8:03.10
Russe Blanc (FR)
9yo 10-7 20/1
Charlie Poste
Kerry Lee (GB)
2015
8:02.00
Hawkes Point (GB)
10yo 10-12 15/2
Sam Twiston-Davies
Paul Nicholls (GB)
2014
7:30.10
Shotgun Paddy (IRE)
7yo 11-7 9/1
Leighton Aspell
Emma Lavelle (GB)
2013
7:48.60
Rigadin De Beauchene (FR)
8yo 10-3 5/1
Robert Dunne (3lbs)
Venetia Williams (GB)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Classic Chase have been based:

  • GB: 20 winners with an additional 39 placings from 263 runners
  • FR: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 6 runners
  • IRE: 0 winners with an additional 2 placings from 3 runners

Classic Chase Trainer Statistics

There are two leading trainers in the Classic Chase over the last 19 renewals with both Paul Nicholls & Alan King who have both won the race 3 times. Paul Nicholls winners have been with Eurotrek (2006), Ladalko (2007) & Hawkes Point (2015). Alan King winners have been with DArgent (2008), West End Rocker (2011) & Notachance (2021). The only other trainer to have recorded multiple wins in the Classic Chase is Emma Lavelle (2 wins).

Here are some of the top Classic Chase trainer statistics over the last 19 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
Paul Nicholls 16-3-4 +5.00 +0.50
Alan King 14-3-6 +20.50 +13.39
Emma Lavelle 5-2-4 +17.00 +12.20
Nigel Twiston-Davies 25-1-5 -13.00 -8.49
Venetia Williams 20-1-6 -14.00 -8.24
Kerry Lee 8-1-2 +13.00 +9.13
Colin Tizzard 6-1-2 +9.00 +5.50
Sue Smith 5-1-1 +21.00 +11.63
Neil Mulholland 4-1-2 +5.00 +6.63
Lucinda Russell 3-1-1 +12.00 +6.75

Classic Chase Jockey Statistics

Here are some of the top Classic Chase jockey statistics over the last 19 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Sam Twiston-Davies 9-1-1 -0.50 -3.31
Robert Dunne 8-1-1 -2.00 -3.87
Tom Bellamy 4-1-2 +8.00 +5.32
Tom Cannon 4-1-1 +0.50 -0.81
Derek Fox 2-1-1 +13.00 +7.75
Bryony Frost 2-1-1 +11.00 +6.50
Mr Sam Waley-Cohen 2-1-1 +7.00 +4.00
Graham Lee 2-1-1 +6.50 +3.69
Richie McLernon 2-1-2 +3.50 +6.44
Paddy Brennan 9-0-1 -9.00 -6.75

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,(5,4,PU),3,PU,6,BD,1,F,2,(3,12),3,PU,PU,F,3,3,10,4,(1,3),2

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (67%) - Over 2m5f - 3m2f (Last Win)
  • 20 / 20 (84%) - No bigger than 25/1
  • 20 / 20 (85%) - Highest class win not a G3
  • 20 / 20 (85%) - Last win was in Listed > Cl4
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - Under 5yrs older than youngest
  • 20 / 20 (90%) - Not wearing just a tongue-tie
  • 19 / 20 (61%) - Fewer than 25 career starts
  • 19 / 20 (64%) - Never won over further 3m2f
  • 19 / 20 (74%) - Fewer than 7 career wins
  • 19 / 20 (86%) - No more than six DNFs
  • 19 / 20 (86%) - Fewer than 5 handicap wins
  • 19 / 20 (87%) - Ran within the last 50 days
  • 18 / 20 (64%) - Fewer than 15 Handicap runs
  • 18 / 20 (67%) - Not beaten more than 12l (LTO)
  • 18 / 20 (68%) - Carrying 10-1 to 11-7
  • 18 / 20 (84%) - Ran over 3m+ (LTO)

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Warwick racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Classic Chase. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles like the How to Find Winners - 101 Tips to Choose A Winning Horse Racing Bet.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not! With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then why share your thoughts on the Classic Chase by adding a tip on the race here.

Classic Chase Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +44.50 is when runners had 1 season place. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had a highest class won of Class 1 (G3), when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-40.

The course which has produced the most winners of the Classic Chase is Chepstow, there has been a total number of 4 winners of this race who ran at Chepstow last time out. The next best courses which have produced the second most winners are Newbury and Cheltenham, there has been a total number of 3 winners from each of those courses.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 20 winners from a total of 260 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 12 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Classic Chase, that stallion is Milan who has produced 2 winners (2018,2017).

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Classic Chase despite multiple attempts:

  • Kings Theatre (0 Wins from 10 runners)
  • Midnight Legend (0 Wins from 9 runners)
  • Dom Alco (0 Wins from 7 runners)
  • Old Vic (0 Wins from 7 runners)
  • Beneficial (0 Wins from 6 runners)
  • Presenting (0 Wins from 6 runners)
  • Supreme Leader (0 Wins from 5 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 19 renewals, the biggest priced winner was The Last Fling in 2002 when winning for Sue Smith at odds of 25/1 under the guidance of Warren Marston. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 19 renewals there has been a total of 2 winning favourites in the race. Ahead of the 2023 Classic Chase why not head over to the best racing tipster page to see what the tipsters are backing today. If you are interested in other races at Warwick racecourse, then why not have a read of our blog for the Leamington Novices Hurdle.

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