You know how punters get lost in too much data or bet blindly? I break down the stats and trends so you can feel confident you’re betting with more than just gut instinct.
2025 Welsh Grand National Preview
The Welsh Grand National can be one of the most demanding Nationals because it is run in December when the weather is at its worst at the Chepstow racecourse. It has been abandoned six times because of being waterlogged, frost or snow, and four of the last ten renewals have been rescheduled to run in January. The last eighteen renewals have been run on either soft or heavy ground, so you need to look for testing ground specialists.
The race is run at Chepstow, which is a left-handed track. It's run over three miles and six & a half furlongs and is open to runners aged four years old or older. The winner's form is pretty good, so get those notebooks ready, both Bindaree and Silver Birch went on to win the Aintree Grand National. There is also Cheltenham Gold Cup form here too, Synchronised (2010) and Native River (2016) both went on to win the Gold Cup in 2012 & 2018.
Welsh Grand National Information:
- Welsh Grand National Past Winners
- Welsh Grand National Trainer Statistics
- Welsh Grand National Jockey Statistics
Our dedicated Chepstow tips page will not only bring you predictions from the OLBG racing tipsters for the upcoming card that includes the Welsh Grand National, but will also have predictions for each meeting at Chepstow throughout the season, so be sure to head over there. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information. Head down to the Other Principal Races at Chepstow Racecourse section for links to these.
Best Horse Racing Betting Sites 2025
How competitive is the Welsh Grand National market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2012 when the race had an over-round of 121%. The race in 2019 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 137%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Welsh Grand National, the over-round has been 129%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £129 which is bet.
Below you will find the 2025 Welsh Grand National Trends. See which patterns have occurred over the recent renewals that you may be able to use for the next renewal. We also have a section that looks at the Welsh Grand National Trend Analysis.
These are the top three quickest-run Welsh Grand National races over the last 20 renewals:
- LAventure (7:38.90) in 2005
- Notre Pere (7:39.90) in 2008
- Halcon Genelardais (7:40.90) in 2006
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? Over the past 20 renewals, if you had followed the winner of the Welsh Grand National next time out, then you would have backed a total of 4 winners. Backing all 20 runners who have been out since their win at SP next time out would have returned an LSP of +10.10. Whilst we wait for the 2025 Welsh Grand National, remember you can get daily racing predictions from the expert tipsters on the racing predictions page.
Over the last 20 renewals, it was LAventure, trained by Paul Nicholls and ridden by Leighton Aspell, who set the fastest winning time in the Welsh Grand National. That runner won the race in a time of 7:38.90 in 2005. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer Gary Moore and jockey Caoilin Quinn with Nassalam who set the slowest winning time; the race-winning time was 8:47.39 in the 2023 renewal.
Welsh Grand National Past Winners
Here are the Welsh Grand National past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won, along with the age & weight of the horse. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the Welsh Grand National are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 8:16.34 | Val Dancer (IRE) 7yo 10-6 8/1 | Charlie Hammond Mel Rowley (GB) |
| 2023 8:47.39 | Nassalam (FR) 6yo 11-3 9/2F | Caoilin Quinn (3lbs) Gary Moore (GB) |
| 2022 8:18.29 | The Two Amigos (GB) 10yo 10-1 16/1 | David Prichard (5lbs) Nicky Martin (GB) |
| 2021 8:29.21 | Iwilldoit (GB) 8yo 10-0 13/2 | Stan Sheppard Sam Thomas (GB) |
| 2020 8:07.80 | Secret Reprieve (IRE) 7yo 10-1 5/2F | Adam Wedge Evan Williams (GB) |
| 2019 8:21.60 | Potters Corner (IRE) 9yo 10-4 8/1 | Jack Tudor (7lbs) Christian Williams (GB) |
| 2018 7:48.21 | Elegant Escape (IRE) 6yo 11-8 3/1F | Tom O'Brien Colin Tizzard (GB) |
| 2017 8:12.10 | Raz De Maree (FR) 13yo 10-10 16/1 | James Bowen (5lbs) Gavin Cromwell (IRE) |
| 2016 7:49.80 | Native River (IRE) 6yo 11-12 11/4F | Richard Johnson Colin Tizzard (GB) |
| 2015 8:26.60 | Mountainous (IRE) 11yo 10-6 9/1 | Jamie Moore Kerry Lee (GB) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Welsh Grand National have been based:
- GB: 18 winners with an additional 55 placings from 343 runners
- IRE: 2 winners with an additional 4 placings from 26 runners
- FR: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 3 runners
2024 Welsh Grand National Replay
Welsh Grand National Trainer Statistics
Two trainers have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Welsh Grand National. David Pipe has sent a total of 23 runners to the race without recording any wins, whilst Nigel Twiston-Davies has sent out 21 without a winner.
Here are some of the top Welsh Grand National trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Nicholls | 35-1-14 | -20.00 | +3.39 |
| Venetia Williams | 22-1-7 | -12.00 | +5.27 |
| Evan Williams | 16-1-5 | -12.50 | +2.45 |
| Philip Hobbs | 15-1-2 | +6.00 | +5.25 |
| Jonjo O'Neill | 11-1-4 | -5.00 | +3.89 |
| Alan King | 9-1-4 | -1.00 | +1.69 |
| Kerry Lee | 7-1-3 | +3.00 | +8.26 |
| Gavin Cromwell | 4-1-2 | +13.00 | +11.63 |
| Michael Scudamore | 4-1-2 | +7.00 | +4.75 |
| Sam Thomas | 4-1-4 | +3.50 | +5.50 |
Welsh Grand National Jockey Statistics
There is one jockey who has not had the best of times in the Welsh Grand National; Sam Twiston-Davies has ridden 11 runners in the race without recording any wins.
Here are some of the top Welsh Grand National jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wedge | 10-1-3 | -6.50 | -1.93 |
| Jack Tudor | 5-1-1 | +4.00 | +1.00 |
| James Bowen | 2-1-1 | +15.00 | +9.00 |
| David Prichard | 1-1-1 | +16.00 | +10.00 |
| Charlie Hammond | 1-1-1 | +8.00 | +5.00 |
| Stan Sheppard | 1-1-1 | +6.50 | +4.06 |
| Caoilin Quinn | 1-1-1 | +4.50 | +2.81 |
| Sam Twiston-Davies | 11-0-1 | -11.00 | -9.12 |
| Brendan Powell | 9-0-1 | -9.00 | -7.00 |
| Gavin Sheehan | 7-0-2 | -7.00 | +1.75 |
2025 Welsh Grand National Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): (3, F), 6, 6, 8, 3, 5, PU, 2, PU, (4, 7), PU, 1, 4, 1, 6, 1, 5, PU, (1, PU), (2, PU)
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones, as you would expect them to do well.
- 20 / 20 (64%) - Beaten no more -11½l (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (65%) - No bigger than 20/1
- 20 / 20 (68%) - Achieved an RPR of 120+ (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (76%) - Achieved a TS of 42+ (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (76%) - Within the first 13 of the market
- 20 / 20 (77%) - Off a break of 18 - 54 days
- 20 / 20 (79%) - Achieved a TS of 63+ (Season)
- 20 / 20 (80%) - Carried 140 - 164lbs (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (84%) - Ran over 2m7½f - 3m6f (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (84%) - Not in a G1/LST/Cl4 (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (84%) - Ran in 1 - 11 races (Going)
- 20 / 20 (85%) - Ran over 2m7½f - 4m1½f (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (86%) - Not BB/BL/BR/GR in colour
- 20 / 20 (87%) - Achieved a TS of 47+ (Last Win)
- 19 / 20 (87%) - No more than 2 falls (Career)
Remember to use the trends listed above, along with the Chepstow racing predictions, to see if you can find the winner of the Welsh Grand National. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles covering numerous topics.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, it is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Welsh Grand National by adding a tip on the race here.
101 Ways to find Winners in Horse Racing
Welsh Grand National Trend Analysis
✅ The trend factor, which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +28.00, is when runners ran in Wales when last winning.
❌ The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 6 starts in the past year, when backing these, the trend shows a record of 0-59.
The course which has produced the most winners of the Welsh Grand National is Chepstow; there have been a total of 7 winners of this race who ran at Chepstow last time out. The next best courses, which have produced the second most winners, are Newbury and Cheltenham; there have been a total of 3 winners from each of those courses.
The race is open to both sexes, with male runners having produced a total of 19 winners from a total of 358 runners, while female runners have produced 1 winner from a total of 14 runners.
Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Welsh Grand National:
- Flemensfirth (2 Wins)
- Milan (2 Wins)
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Welsh Grand National despite multiple attempts:
- Old Vic (0 Wins from 12 runners)
- Kayf Tara (0 Wins from 11 runners)
- Beneficial (0 Wins from 8 runners)
- Oscar (0 Wins from 8 runners)
- Presenting (0 Wins from 8 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Dream Alliance in 2009, winning for Philip Hobbs at odds of 20/1 under the guidance of Tom O'Brien. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals, there have been 4 winning favourites in the race. Remember to bookmark the best racing tipsters page so you can get easy access to the best OLBG racing tipsters.
Route to the Welsh Grand National
Many trainers target races as preparation for the Welsh Grand National. These are the races which the recent winners ran in before coming here:
| Info | Last Race |
|---|---|
| 2024 - Val Dancer Carlisle - 1st of 9 (6/1) | Graham, Pam & Jo Birthday Celebration Cumberland Handicap Chase |
| 2023 - Nassalam Chepstow - 1st of 10 (3/1) | Welsh Grand National Trial |
| 2022 - The Two Amigos Haydock - 3rd of 9 (10/3) | Jewson Widnes Veterans Handicap Chase |
| 2021 - Iwilldoit Chepstow - 1st of 10 (12/1) | Welsh Grand National Trial |
| 2020 - Secret Reprieve Chepstow - 1st of 11 (5/1) | Welsh Grand National Trial |
| 2019 - Potters Corner Chepstow - 1st of 10 (11/1) | Chepstow For Kubota Mini Diggers Handicap Hurdle |
| 2018 - Elegant Escape Newbury - 2nd of 12 (4/1) | Coral Gold Cup |
| 2017 - Raz De Maree Southwell - 2nd of 13 (15/2) | Happy Birthday Andy Handicap Hurdle |
| 2016 - Native River Newbury - 1st of 19 (7/2) | Coral Gold Cup |
| 2015 - Mountainous Sandown - 6th of 15 (8/1) | London National |
Article Contributor Information
We are fortunate to have an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to the creation and maintenance of this Welsh Grand National Preview are Andy and Darren. They both work on the Horse racing tips team, looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for National Hunt Racing.
Darren Brett
Expert Guide
Andy Powell
Expert Guide
