Welsh Grand National Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends

2024 Welsh Grand National Preview

The Welsh Grand National can be one of the most demanding Nationals because it is run in December when the weather is at its worst at the Chepstow racecourse. It has been abandoned six times because of being waterlogged, frost or snow and four of the last ten renewals have been rescheduled to run in January. The last fourteen renewals have been run on either soft (6) or heavy (8) ground which means you need to look for testing ground specialists.

The race is run at Chepstow which is a left-handed track, it's run over three miles and five & a half furlongs and is open to runners aged four years old or older. The winner's form is pretty good so get those notebooks ready, both Bindaree and Silver Birch went on to win the Aintree Grand National. There is also Cheltenham Gold Cup form here too, Synchronised (2010) and Native River (2016) both went on to win the Gold Cup in 2012 & 2018.

Welsh Grand National Information:

• Welsh Grand National Past Winners
• Welsh Grand National Trainer Statistics
• Welsh Grand National Jockey Statistics

If you are interested in other predictions at Chepstow then head over to the Chepstow tips page to see which runners are being supported by the OLBG racing tipsters and also compare those predictions to the runners that make the trend shortlist when added below. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Other Principal Races at Chepstow Racecourse section for links to these.

How competitive is the Welsh Grand National market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2012 when the race had an over-round of 121%. The race in 2019 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 137%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Welsh Grand National, the over-round has been 129%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £129 which is bet.

Welsh Grand National Trends:

• 2024 Welsh Grand National Trends
• Welsh Grand National Trend Analysis

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Welsh Grand National next time out then you would have backed a total of 4 winners. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of +11.10. Remember to use the racing predictions along with the information on this page to find a bet on the 2024 Welsh Grand National.

The runner that holds the record over the past 20 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2023 renewal when Nassalam from Gary Moore under the guidance of Caoilin Quinn, won in a time of 8:47.39, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, L'Aventure, trained by Paul Nicholls and ridden by Leighton Aspell set the quickest time of 7:38.90 in the 2005 renewal.

These are the top three quickest-run Welsh Grand National over the last 20 renewals:

1. LAventure (7:38.90) in 2005
2. Notre Pere (7:39.90) in 2008
3. Halcon Genelardais (7:40.90) in 2006

Welsh Grand National Past Winners

Here are the Welsh Grand National past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Welsh Grand National as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Welsh Grand National have been based:

• GB: 18 winners with an additional 56 placings from 347 runners
• IRE: 2 winners with an additional 4 placings from 24 runners
• FR: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 3 runners

Welsh Grand National Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the Welsh Grand National over the last 20 renewals is Paul Nicholls who has won the race two times with those two winners coming from Silver Birch (2004) and L'Aventure (2005). Multiple trainers have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Welsh Grand National, David Pipe (0-23), Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-21) and Peter Bowen (0-10) have all failed to produce a single winner despite sending multiple runners to the race.

Here are some of the top Welsh Grand National trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Welsh Grand National Jockey Statistics

There is one jockey who has not had the best of times in the Welsh Grand National, Sam Twiston-Davies has ridden a total of 10 runners to the race without recording any wins.

Here are some of the top Welsh Grand National jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

2024 Welsh Grand National Trends

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 1, (3, F), 6, 6, 8, 3, 5, PU, 2, PU, (4, 7), PU, 1, 4, 1, 6, 1, 5, PU, (1, PU)

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

• 20 / 20 (64%) - No bigger than 20/1
• 20 / 20 (64%) - Beaten no more -11½l (LTO)
• 20 / 20 (67%) - Achieved an RPR of 120+ (LTO)
• 20 / 20 (69%) - Finished in first 6 (LTO)
• 20 / 20 (75%) - Achieved a TS of 42+ (LTO)
• 20 / 20 (75%) - Within the first 13 of the market
• 20 / 20 (78%) - Off a break of 18 - 54 days
• 20 / 20 (80%) - Achieved a TS of 63+ (Season)
• 20 / 20 (80%) - Carried 140 - 164lbs (LTO)
• 20 / 20 (83%) - Ran over 2m7½f - 3m6f (LTO)
• 20 / 20 (83%) - Not in a G1/LST/Cl4 (LTO)
• 20 / 20 (84%) - Made 1 - 11 starts (Going)
• 20 / 20 (84%) - Ran over 2m7½f - 4m1½f (Last Win)
• 20 / 20 (86%) - Not BB/BL/BR/GR in colour
• 20 / 20 (87%) - Achieved a TS of 47+ (Last Win)

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Chepstow racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Welsh Grand National. If you are looking to place on a bet this race well in advance of the actual running, then there may be an ante-post market available for you to place your bet. If you are unfamiliar with this type of betting then head over to the OLBG Betting School and read our Ante-Post Horse Racing article which explains how ante-post betting works.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Welsh Grand National by adding a tip on the race here.

Welsh Grand National Trend Analysis

The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +57.83 is when runners had 2 career places at the track. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 6 starts in the past year, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-58.

The course which has produced the most winners of the Welsh Grand National is Chepstow, there has been a total number of 7 winners of this race who ran at Chepstow last time out. The next best courses which have produced the second most winners are Newbury and Cheltenham, there has been a total number of 3 winners from each of those courses.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 19 winners from a total of 361 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 1 winner from a total of 13 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Welsh Grand National:

• Flemensfirth (2 Wins)
• Milan (2 Wins)

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Welsh Grand National despite multiple attempts:

• Old Vic (0 Wins from 12 runners)
• Kayf Tara (0 Wins from 11 runners)
• Beneficial (0 Wins from 8 runners)
• Presenting (0 Wins from 8 runners)
• Westerner (0 Wins from 8 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Dream Alliance in 2009, winning for Philip Hobbs at odds of 20/1 under the guidance of Tom O'Brien. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there have been 5 winning favourites in the race. Before placing your bet on the 2024 Welsh Grand National head over to see which other runners today are being backed by the best racing tipsters today.

Other Principal races at Chepstow racecourse

Here are some other notable races at the Chepstow racecourse throughout the racing season that you may be interested in.

Races in October

• Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle

Races in December

• Welsh Grand National Trial