Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.
2024 Welsh Grand National Preview
The Welsh Grand National can be one of the most demanding Nationals because it is run in December when the weather is at its worst at the Chepstow racecourse. It has been abandoned six times because of being waterlogged, frost or snow and four of the last ten renewals have been rescheduled to run in January. The last eighteen renewals have been run on either soft or heavy ground, so you need to look for testing ground specialists.
The race is run at Chepstow which is a left-handed track, it's run over three miles and five & a half furlongs and is open to runners aged four years old or older. The winner's form is pretty good so get those notebooks ready, both Bindaree and Silver Birch went on to win the Aintree Grand National. There is also Cheltenham Gold Cup form here too, Synchronised (2010) and Native River (2016) both went on to win the Gold Cup in 2012 & 2018.
Welsh Grand National Information:
- Welsh Grand National Past Winners
- Welsh Grand National Trainer Statistics
- Welsh Grand National Jockey Statistics
If you are interested in other predictions at Chepstow then head over to the Chepstow tips page to see which runners are being supported by the OLBG racing tipsters and also compare those predictions to the runners that make the trend shortlist when added below. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Other Principal Races at Chepstow Racecourse section for links to these.
Best Horse Racing Betting Sites 2024
How competitive is the Welsh Grand National market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2012 when the race had an over-round of 121%. The race in 2019 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 137%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Welsh Grand National, the over-round has been 129%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £129 which is bet.
Below you will find the 2024 Welsh Grand National Trends, see which patterns have occurred over the recent renewals that you may be able to use for the next renewal, we also have a section that looks at the Welsh Grand National Trend Analysis.
These are the top three quickest-run Welsh Grand National over the last 20 renewals:
- LAventure (7:38.90) in 2005
- Notre Pere (7:39.90) in 2008
- Halcon Genelardais (7:40.90) in 2006
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Welsh Grand National next time out then you would have backed a total of 4 winners. Backing all 20 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of +10.10. Whilst we wait for the 2024 Welsh Grand National remember you can get daily racing predictions from the expert tipsters on the racing predictions page.
Over the last 20 renewals, it was L'Aventure, trained by Paul Nicholls and ridden by Leighton Aspell who set the fastest winning time in the Welsh Grand National, the runner won the race in a time of 7:38.90 when winning the race in 2005. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer Gary Moore and jockey Caoilin Quinn with Nassalam who set the slowest winning time, the race-winning time was 8:47.39 in the 2023 renewal.
Welsh Grand National Past Winners
Here are the Welsh Grand National past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the Welsh Grand National are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 8:47.39 | Nassalam (FR) 6yo 11-3 9/2F | Caoilin Quinn (3lbs) Gary Moore (GB) |
| 2022 8:18.29 | The Two Amigos (GB) 10yo 10-1 16/1 | David Prichard (5lbs) Nicky Martin (GB) |
| 2021 8:29.21 | Iwilldoit (GB) 8yo 10-0 13/2 | Stan Sheppard Sam Thomas (GB) |
| 2020 8:07.80 | Secret Reprieve (IRE) 7yo 10-1 5/2F | Adam Wedge Evan Williams (GB) |
| 2019 8:21.60 | Potters Corner (IRE) 9yo 10-4 8/1 | Jack Tudor (7lbs) Christian Williams (GB) |
| 2018 7:48.21 | Elegant Escape (IRE) 6yo 11-8 3/1F | Tom O'Brien Colin Tizzard (GB) |
| 2017 8:12.10 | Raz De Maree (FR) 13yo 10-10 16/1 | James Bowen (5lbs) Gavin Cromwell (IRE) |
| 2016 7:49.80 | Native River (IRE) 6yo 11-12 11/4F | Richard Johnson Colin Tizzard (GB) |
| 2015 8:26.60 | Mountainous (IRE) 11yo 10-6 9/1 | Jamie Moore Kerry Lee (GB) |
| 2014 8:07.60 | Emperors Choice (IRE) 7yo 10-8 9/1 | Aidan Coleman Venetia Williams (GB) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Welsh Grand National have been based:
- GB: 18 winners with an additional 56 placings from 347 runners
- IRE: 2 winners with an additional 4 placings from 24 runners
- FR: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 3 runners
Welsh Grand National Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the Welsh Grand National over the last 20 renewals is Paul Nicholls who has won the race two times with those two winners coming from Silver Birch (2004) and LAventure (2005). Multiple trainers have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Welsh Grand National, David Pipe (0-23), Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-21) and Peter Bowen (0-10) have all failed to produce a single winner despite sending multiple runners to the race.
Here are some of the top Welsh Grand National trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Nicholls | 38-2-16 | -18.67 | +4.91 |
| Venetia Williams | 21-1-7 | -11.00 | +6.27 |
| Evan Williams | 16-1-5 | -12.50 | +2.45 |
| Philip Hobbs | 15-1-2 | +6.00 | +5.25 |
| Jonjo O'Neill | 11-1-4 | -5.00 | +3.89 |
| Alan King | 9-1-4 | -1.00 | +1.69 |
| Kerry Lee | 6-1-3 | +4.00 | +9.26 |
| Michael Scudamore | 4-1-2 | +7.00 | +4.75 |
| Gary Moore | 4-1-1 | +1.50 | -0.19 |
| Gavin Cromwell | 3-1-2 | +14.00 | +12.63 |
Welsh Grand National Jockey Statistics
There is one jockey who has not had the best of times in the Welsh Grand National, Sam Twiston-Davies has ridden 10 runners to the race without recording any wins.
Here are some of the top Welsh Grand National jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wedge | 9-1-3 | -5.50 | -0.93 |
| Jack Tudor | 4-1-1 | +5.00 | +2.00 |
| James Bowen | 2-1-1 | +15.00 | +9.00 |
| David Prichard | 1-1-1 | +16.00 | +10.00 |
| Stan Sheppard | 1-1-1 | +6.50 | +4.06 |
| Caoilin Quinn | 1-1-1 | +4.50 | +2.81 |
| Sam Twiston-Davies | 10-0-1 | -10.00 | -8.12 |
| Brendan Powell | 8-0-1 | -8.00 | -6.00 |
| Gavin Sheehan | 7-0-2 | -7.00 | +1.75 |
| Charlie Deutsch | 7-0-2 | -7.00 | -0.37 |
2024 Welsh Grand National Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 1, (3, F), 6, 6, 8, 3, 5, PU, 2, PU, (4, 7), PU, 1, 4, 1, 6, 1, 5, PU, (1, PU)
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.
- 20 / 20 (64%) - No bigger than 20/1
- 20 / 20 (64%) - Beaten no more -11½l (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (67%) - Achieved an RPR of 120+ (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (75%) - Achieved a TS of 42+ (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (75%) - Within the first 13 of the market
- 20 / 20 (78%) - Off a break of 18 - 54 days
- 20 / 20 (80%) - Achieved a TS of 63+ (Season)
- 20 / 20 (80%) - Carried 140 - 164lbs (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (83%) - Ran over 2m7½f - 3m6f (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (83%) - Not in a G1/LST/Cl4 (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (84%) - Ran in 1 - 11 races (Going)
- 20 / 20 (84%) - Ran over 2m7½f - 4m1½f (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (86%) - Not BB/BL/BR/GR in colour
- 20 / 20 (87%) - Achieved a TS of 47+ (Last Win)
- 19 / 20 (86%) - No more than 2 falls (Career)
Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Chepstow racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Welsh Grand National. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles like How to Find Winners - 101 Tips to Choose A Winning Horse Racing Bet.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Welsh Grand National by adding a tip on the race here.
Welsh Grand National Trend Analysis
✅ The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +57.83 is when runners had 2 career places at the track.
❌ The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 6 starts in the past year, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-58.
The course which has produced the most winners of the Welsh Grand National is Chepstow, there has been a total number of 7 winners of this race who ran at Chepstow last time out. The next best courses which have produced the second most winners are Newbury and Cheltenham, there has been a total number of 3 winners from each of those courses.
The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 19 winners from a total of 361 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 1 winner from a total of 13 runners.
Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Welsh Grand National:
- Flemensfirth (2 Wins)
- Milan (2 Wins)
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Welsh Grand National despite multiple attempts:
- Old Vic (0 Wins from 12 runners)
- Kayf Tara (0 Wins from 11 runners)
- Beneficial (0 Wins from 8 runners)
- Presenting (0 Wins from 8 runners)
- Westerner (0 Wins from 8 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Dream Alliance in 2009, winning for Philip Hobbs at odds of 20/1 under the guidance of Tom O'Brien. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there have been 5 winning favourites in the race. Whilst we wait for the 2024 Welsh Grand National remember you can get daily racing predictions from the top racing tipsters on the best racing tipsters page.
Article Contributor Information
We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this Welsh Grand National Preview are at hand, Andy and Darren. They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for National Hunt Racing.
Darren Brett
Tipster Competition Manager
Andy Powell
Content Editor
