Welsh Grand National Trial Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends

Updated: 727 1 Horse Racing

If you are a fan of horse racing trends then this preview of the Welsh Grand National Trial will be perfect for you! Not only do we look at the trends but we look at past winners as well as trainer and jockey records for the Welsh Grand National Trial, a race run over 2m7½f at Chepstow.

Welsh Grand National Trial Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends
Andy Powell Content Editor

Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.

2024 Welsh Grand National Trial Preview

Scheduled to take place in early December of each year at the Chepstow racecourse is the Welsh Grand National Trial, the race serves as a trial for the Welsh Grand National which takes place on 27th December. Contested over a distance of two miles, seven and a half furlongs the runners face a today of eighteen fences in their quest for a victory.

The 2020 winner of the race, Secret Reprieve as well as the 2021 winner, Iwilldoit, both went on to win the Welsh National after winning this race, a feat that was also achieved by the 2011 winner Le Beau Bai.

Welsh Grand National Trial Information:

Why not use the trends shortlist below to help you narrow down the field and then head over to the dedicated Chepstow tips page to see which runners are being supported by the OLBG expert racing tipsters to find yourself a bet? You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Other Principal Races at Chepstow Racecourse section for links to these.

How competitive is the Welsh Grand National Trial market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 14 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2013 when the race had an over-round of 112%. The race in 2011 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 126%, whilst on average over the last 14 renewals of the Welsh Grand National Trial, the over-round has been 118%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £118 which is bet.

Welsh Grand National Trial Trends:

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 14 if you had followed the winner of the Welsh Grand National Trial next time out then you would have backed a total of 3 winners. Backing all 13 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of +9.00. Whilst we wait for the 2024 Welsh Grand National Trial remember you can get daily racing predictions from the expert tipsters on the racing predictions page.

When looking over the past 14 renewals, a time of 6:04.00 was set by De La Bech in 2013, which is the quickest time over that period, the runner was trained by Philip Hobbs and ridden by James Best. The slowest winning time was set in 2009 when Le Beau Bai won in a time of 6:47.90, booked to ride was Mr O Greenall on this Richard Lee trained runner.

These are the top three quickest-run Welsh Grand National Trial over the last 14 renewals:

  1. De La Bech (6:04.00) in 2013
  2. Farinet (6:04.12) in 2022
  3. Lamb Or Cod (6:07.70) in 2016

Welsh Grand National Trial Past Winners

Here are the Welsh Grand National Trial past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Welsh Grand National Trial as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

YearHorseInfo
2023
6:33.70
Nassalam (FR)
6yo 10-12 3/1
Caoilin Quinn (3lbs)
Gary Moore (GB)
2022
6:04.12
Farinet (FR)
7yo 10-0 5/1
Shane Quinlan (5lbs)
Venetia Williams (GB)
2021
6:09.71
Iwilldoit (GB)
8yo 10-6 12/1
Stan Sheppard
Sam Thomas (GB)
2020
6:26.28
Secret Reprieve (IRE)
6yo 10-13 5/1
James Bowen
Evan Williams (GB)
2019
6:33.60
Acting Lass (IRE)
8yo 11-7 3/1
Paddy Brennan
Harry Fry (GB)
2018
6:31.50
Ramses De Teillee (FR)
6yo 11-10 2/1F
David Noonan
David Pipe (GB)
2017
6:30.80
Wild West Wind (IRE)
8yo 10-13 6/1
Ciaran Gethings (3lbs)
Tom George (GB)
2016
6:07.70
Lamb Or Cod (IRE)
9yo 10-11 6/1F
Richard Johnson
Philip Hobbs (GB)
2015
6:31.50
Tour Des Champs (FR)
8yo 10-5 7/2F
Jamie Bargary (5lbs)
Nigel Twiston-Davies (GB)
2014
6:15.30
Rebeccas Choice (IRE)
11yo 10-11 16/1
Robert Dunne
Dai Burchell (GB)

Welsh Grand National Trial Trainer Statistics

There are two leading trainers in the Welsh Grand National Trial over the last 14 renewals with both David Pipe and Philip Hobbs who have both won the race two times. David Pipe winners have been with Sona Sasta (2012) and Ramses De Teillee (2018). Philip Hobbs winners have been with De La Bech (2013) and Lamb Or Cod (2016). There is one trainer who has not had the best of times in the Welsh Grand National Trial, Paul Nicholls has sent a total of 11 runners to the race without recording any wins.

Here are some of the top Welsh Grand National Trial trainer statistics over the last 14 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

TrainerR-W-PWinEW
David Pipe8-2-5-0.50+0.25
Philip Hobbs7-2-2+5.00+1.15
Venetia Williams11-1-2-5.00+1.75
Evan Williams7-1-4-1.00+1.85
Nigel Twiston-Davies6-1-2-1.50-1.96
Dai Burchell3-1-1+14.00+7.60
Tom George2-1-1+5.00+2.60
Harry Fry2-1-1+2.00+0.88
Sam Thomas1-1-1+12.00+7.20
Gary Moore1-1-1+3.00+1.80

Welsh Grand National Trial Jockey Statistics

Here are some of the top Welsh Grand National Trial jockey statistics over the last 14 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

JockeyR-W-PWinEW
Stan Sheppard3-1-1+10.00+5.20
Ciaran Gethings3-1-1+4.00+1.60
Jamie Bargary3-1-1+1.50+0.10
Paddy Brennan3-1-1+1.00-0.12
Robert Dunne2-1-1+15.00+8.60
James Best2-1-1+3.00+1.40
David Noonan2-1-1+1.00+0.20
Shane Quinlan1-1-1+5.00+3.00
James Bowen1-1-1+5.00+3.00
Caoilin Quinn1-1-1+3.00+1.80

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): UR, 6, 3, 3, PU, (1, 2), (1, 9, 12), 8, 1, 3, 7, 7, PU, PU

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 14 / 14 (70%) - Within the first 7 of the market
  • 14 / 14 (75%) - Ran over 2m4f - 3m2½f (LTO)
  • 14 / 14 (77%) - No bigger than 16/1
  • 14 / 14 (84%) - Ran over 2m3½f - 3m4f (Last Win)
  • 14 / 14 (85%) - Carried 151 - 170lbs (Last Win)
  • 14 / 14 (85%) - Achieved an RPR of 115+ Going)
  • 14 / 14 (86%) - Fewer than 8 starts (Class)
  • 14 / 14 (87%) - Furthest ran 3m - 4m1½f
  • 14 / 14 (88%) - Fewer than 1 wins (Season)
  • 14 / 14 (89%) - Held an OR of 126+ (Last 3)
  • 14 / 14 (89%) - Not in a G1-3/LST/Cl5 (Last Win)
  • 14 / 14 (89%) - Beaten no more -34l (LTO)
  • 14 / 14 (89%) - Made 2 - 20 starts (Chase)
  • 13 / 14 (75%) - No more than 1 fall (Career)
  • 13 / 14 (78%) - No older than a 9yo

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Chepstow racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Welsh Grand National Trial. If you are looking to place on a bet this race well in advance of the actual running, then there may be an ante-post market available for you to place your bet. If you are unfamiliar with this type of betting then head over to the OLBG Betting School and read our Ante-Post Horse Racing article which explains how ante-post betting works.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Welsh Grand National Trial by adding a tip on the race here.

Welsh Grand National Trial Trend Analysis

The trend factor which had produced 7+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +29.50 is when runners had recorded 0 career falls. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had recorded 2 career DNFs, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-26.

The course which has produced the most winners of the Welsh Grand National Trial is Cheltenham, there has been a total number of 3 winners of this race who ran at Cheltenham last time out.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 14 winners from a total of 141 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 2 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Welsh Grand National Trial, that stallion Cadoudal has produced 2 winners (2011,2009).

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Welsh Grand National Trial despite multiple attempts:

  • Kayf Tara (0 Wins from 7 runners)
  • Milan (0 Wins from 6 runners)
  • Beneficial (0 Wins from 5 runners)
  • Presenting (0 Wins from 5 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 14 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Rebeccas Choice in 2014, winning for Dai Burchell at odds of 16/1 under the guidance of Robert Dunne. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 14 renewals there have been 3 winning favourites in the race. Remember to bookmark the best racing tipsters page so you can get easy access to the best OLBG racing tipsters.

Other Principal races at Chepstow racecourse

Here are some other notable races at the Chepstow racecourse throughout the racing season that you may be interested in.

Races in October

Races in December

Comments 1

H

hughz123


Will this will be updated once the final field is known?

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