Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.
2024 Grand Sefton Preview
The Grand Sefton is run over the Grand National fences at Aintree and was switched to be run in November instead of December in 2021 and will be run in November going forward. The race is a Class 2 Handicap Chase run over two miles and five furlongs and is open to runners aged six years old or older. First run back in 1865, the race saw 100 renewals before ending in 1965. However, in 2003 the race was revived and has been run every year since.
Grand Sefton Information:
If you are interested in other predictions at Aintree then head over to the Aintree tips page to see which runners are being supported by the OLBG racing tipsters and also compare those predictions to the runners that make the trend shortlist when added below. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Other Principal Races at Aintree Racecourse section for links to these.
How competitive is the Grand Sefton market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2012 when the race had an over-round of 115%. The race in 2007 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 132%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Grand Sefton, the over-round has been 122%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £122 which is bet.
Grand Sefton Trends:
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Grand Sefton next time out then you would have backed a total of 2 winners. Backing all 18 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -0.50. Ahead of the 2024 Grand Sefton why not head over to the racing predictions for tips on other races today?
When looking over the past 20 renewals, a time of 5:27.00 was set by Al Dancer in 2022, which is the quickest time over that period, the runner was trained by Sam Thomas and ridden by Charlie Deutsch. The slowest winning time was set in 2008 when Endless Power won in a time of 6:09.20, booked to ride was James Reveley on this Jim Goldie trained runner.
These are the top three quickest-run Grand Sefton over the last 20 renewals:
- 2022 - Al Dancer (5:27.00)
- 2014 - Poole Master (5:32.10)
- 2021 - Mac Tottie (5:33.75)
Grand Sefton Past Winners
Here are the Grand Sefton past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Grand Sefton as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 5:46.19 | Gesskille (FR) 7yo 11-7 100/30F | Henry Brooke Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero (GB) |
| 2022 5:27.00 | Al Dancer (FR) 9yo 10-13 5/1 | Charlie Deutsch Sam Thomas (GB) |
| 2021 5:33.75 | Mac Tottie (GB) 8yo 11-1 20/1 | James Bowen Peter Bowen (GB) |
| 2020 5:53.75 | Beau Bay (FR) 9yo 10-2 20/1 | Charlie Hammond (3lbs) Dr Richard Newland (GB) |
| 2019 5:42:10 | Hogans Height (IRE) 8yo 10-8 16/1 | Tom Cannon Jamie Snowden (GB) |
| 2018 5:41.40 | Warriors Tale (GB) 9yo 11-12 15/2 | Sean Bowen Paul Nicholls (GB) |
| 2017 6:05.70 | Gas Line Boy (IRE) 11yo 11-10 9/2F | Robert Dunne Ian Williams (GB) |
| 2016 5:37.50 | As De Mee (FR) 6yo 11-0 4/1F | Sean Bowen Paul Nicholls (GB) |
| 2015 5:49.80 | Bennys Mist (IRE) 9yo 10-4 8/1 | Liam Treadwell Venetia Williams (GB) |
| 2014 5:32.10 | Poole Master (GB) 9yo 10-12 25/1 | Tom Scudamore David Pipe (GB) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Grand Sefton have been based:
- GB: 20 winners with an additional 44 placings from 270 runners
- IRE: 0 winners with an additional 4 placings from 23 runners
- FR: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 3 runners
Grand Sefton Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the Grand Sefton over the last 20 renewals is Paul Nicholls who has won the race three times with those three winners coming from Rebel Rebellion (2013), As De Mee (2016) and Warriors Tale (2018). The only other trainer to have recorded multiple wins in the Grand Sefton is Jim Goldie (2 wins). Two trainers have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Grand Sefton, Jonjo O'Neill has sent a total of 11 runners to the race without recording any wins whilst Donald McCain has sent out 10 without a winner.
Here are some of the top Grand Sefton trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Nicholls | 18-3-6 | +12.50 | +5.94 |
| Jim Goldie | 8-2-3 | +71.00 | +43.13 |
| Nigel Twiston-Davies | 19-1-3 | -14.50 | -10.90 |
| Peter Bowen | 12-1-2 | +9.00 | +3.38 |
| Venetia Williams | 11-1-3 | -2.00 | -2.45 |
| Dr Richard Newland | 9-1-3 | +12.00 | +11.50 |
| David Pipe | 8-1-1 | +18.00 | +8.63 |
| Bob Buckler | 4-1-1 | +9.00 | +4.50 |
| Jamie Snowden | 3-1-1 | +14.00 | +8.00 |
| John Spearing | 2-1-1 | +17.00 | +10.25 |
Grand Sefton Jockey Statistics
The leading jockey in the Grand Sefton over the last 20 renewals is Sean Bowen who has won the race two times with those two winners coming from As De Mee (2016) and Warriors Tale (2018).
Here are some of the top Grand Sefton jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Bowen | 5-2-3 | +8.50 | +5.00 |
| Paddy Brennan | 11-1-4 | +8.00 | +7.60 |
| Sam Twiston-Davies | 9-1-1 | -4.50 | -5.90 |
| Brian Hughes | 8-1-1 | +3.00 | -0.75 |
| Henry Brooke | 7-1-3 | -2.67 | +2.75 |
| Jamie Moore | 4-1-1 | +11.00 | +5.40 |
| Daryl Jacob | 4-1-2 | +9.00 | +6.00 |
| James Reveley | 4-1-1 | +8.00 | +3.88 |
| Charlie Deutsch | 4-1-2 | +2.00 | +1.18 |
| Aidan Coleman | 3-1-1 | +3.50 | +1.44 |
2024 Grand Sefton Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 1, (4, 12), (F, 2), PU, PU, UR, (3, F), 2, 1, PU, 8, 5, 1, 1, (3, 8, F), 4, 8, 5, 4, 1
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.
- 20 / 20 (82%) - Made 15 - 54 starts (Career)
- 20 / 20 (82%) - Made 5 - 24 starts (Chase)
- 20 / 20 (84%) - Fewer than 3 wins (Jockey)
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Made 3 - 10 starts (1 Year)
- 20 / 20 (88%) - No at Ayr, Haydock or Perth (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (88%) - In a field of 6 - 18 (Debut)
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Achieved an RPR of 100+ Going)
- 20 / 20 (89%) - Off a break of 14 - 239 days
- 20 / 20 (89%) - Fewer than 13 starts (Class)
- 20 / 20 (89%) - Fewer than 5 placings (1 Year)
- 19 / 20 (81%) - Avoid 7yo runners
- 19 / 20 (82%) - Fewer than 5 placings (Class)
- 19 / 20 (84%) - Not in a LST/Cl2-3 (Debut)
- 19 / 20 (89%) - Held an OR of 111+ (Last 3)
- 18 / 20 (72%) - No bigger than 20/1
Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Aintree racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Grand Sefton. If you are a newcomer to horse racing betting, then the number of types of bets can be scary! Don't let that put you off though, head over to this Types Of Horse Racing Bet article and have a read, you will then have a better knowledge of betting on racing in the future and there are plenty of other articles in the OLBG Betting School too.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Grand Sefton by adding a tip on the race here.
Grand Sefton Trend Analysis
The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +101.50 is when runners had 0 season places. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners carried 166lbs when last winning, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-40.
The courses that have produced the most winners of the Grand Sefton are Cheltenham and Aintree, there has been a total number of 4 winners from each of those courses.
The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 20 winners from a total of 291 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 5 runners.
Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Grand Sefton, that stallion Midnight Legend has produced 2 winners (2021,2018).
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Grand Sefton despite multiple attempts:
- Presenting (0 Wins from 13 runners)
- Roselier (0 Wins from 6 runners)
- Dr Massini (0 Wins from 5 runners)
- Kayf Tara (0 Wins from 5 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Lampion Du Bost in 2007, winning for Jim Goldie at odds of 66/1 under the guidance of Phil Kinsella. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there have been 5 winning favourites in the race. Whilst we wait for the 2024 Grand Sefton remember you can get daily racing predictions from the top racing tipsters on the best racing tipsters page.
Other Principal races at Aintree racecourse
Here are some other notable races at the Aintree racecourse throughout the racing season that you may be interested in.
Races in April (Grand National Meeting)
- Aintree Hurdle
- Anniversary 4YO Juvenile Hurdle
- Bowl Chase
- Foxhunters Chase
- Manifesto Novices Chase
- Nickel Coin Mares Bumper
- Red Rum Handicap Chase
- Abersoch Land and Sea Handicap Hurdle
- Marsh Chase
- Mildmay Novices Chase
- Sefton Novices Hurdle
- Top Novices Hurdle
- Topham Chase
- William Hill National Festival Handicap Hurdle
- Champion Standard Open NH Flat Race
- Grand National
- Liverpool Hurdle
- Maghull Novices Chase
- Mersey Novices Hurdle
- Village Hotels Handicap Hurdle
- William Hill National Festival Handicap Chase
Races in October
Races in November
Races in December
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