You know how punters get lost in too much data or bet blindly? I break down the stats and trends so you can feel confident youâre betting with more than just gut instinct.
2025 Grand Sefton Preview
The Grand Sefton is run over the Grand National fences at Aintree and was switched to be run in November instead of December in 2021. The race is a Class 2 Handicap Chase run over two miles and five furlongs and is open to runners aged six years old or older.
First run back in 1865, the race saw 100 renewals before ending in 1965. However, in 2003 the race was revived and has been run every year since.
For sponsorship purposes, the 2025 renewal of the Grand Sefton will hold the title of 'William Hill Grand Sefton Handicap Chase'.
Grand Sefton Information:
Our dedicated Aintree tips page will not only bring you predictions from the OLBG racing tipsters for the upcoming card that includes the Grand Sefton, but will also have predictions for each meeting at Aintree throughout the season, so be sure to head over there. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information. Head down to the Other Principal Races at Aintree Racecourse section for links to these.
Best Horse Racing Betting Sites 2025
How competitive is the Grand Sefton market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2012 when the race had an over-round of 115%. The race in 2007 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 132%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Grand Sefton, the over-round has been 122%, which means the bookie expects to pay out ÂŁ100 for every ÂŁ122 which is bet.
Below you will find the 2025 Grand Sefton Trends. See which patterns have occurred over the recent renewals that you may be able to use for the next renewal. We also have a section that looks at the Grand Sefton Trend Analysis. With the field now finalised, we have the Grand Sefton Trend Shortlist, which is created using the listed trends.
These are the top three quickest-run Grand Sefton races over the last 20 renewals:
- King Turgeon (5:23.52) in 2024
- Al Dancer (5:27.00) in 2022
- Poole Master (5:32.10) in 2014
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? Over the past 20 renewals, if you had followed the winner of the Grand Sefton next time out, then you would have backed a total of 2 winners. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since their win at SP next time out would have returned an LSP of -11.25. Whilst we wait for the 2025 Grand Sefton, remember you can get daily racing predictions from the expert tipsters on the racing predictions page.
The runner that holds the record over the past 20 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2008 renewal when Endless Power from Jim Goldie under the guidance of James Reveley, won in a time of 6:09.20, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, King Turgeon, trained by David Pipe and ridden by Jack Tudor set the quickest time of 5:23.52 in the 2024 renewal.
Grand Sefton Past Winners
Here are the Grand Sefton past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won, along with the age & weight of the horse. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the Grand Sefton are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 5:23.52 | King Turgeon (FR) 6yo 10-2 9/2 | Jack Tudor David Pipe (GB) |
| 2023 5:46.19 | Gesskille (FR) 7yo 11-7 100/30F | Henry Brooke Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero (GB) |
| 2022 5:27.00 | Al Dancer (FR) 9yo 10-13 5/1 | Charlie Deutsch Sam Thomas (GB) |
| 2021 5:33.75 | Mac Tottie (GB) 8yo 11-1 20/1 | James Bowen Peter Bowen (GB) |
| 2020 5:53.75 | Beau Bay (FR) 9yo 10-2 20/1 | Charlie Hammond (3lbs) Dr Richard Newland (GB) |
| 2019 5:42:10 | Hogans Height (IRE) 8yo 10-8 16/1 | Tom Cannon Jamie Snowden (GB) |
| 2018 5:41.40 | Warriors Tale (GB) 9yo 11-12 15/2 | Sean Bowen Paul Nicholls (GB) |
| 2017 6:05.70 | Gas Line Boy (IRE) 11yo 11-10 9/2F | Robert Dunne Ian Williams (GB) |
| 2016 5:37.50 | As De Mee (FR) 6yo 11-0 4/1F | Sean Bowen Paul Nicholls (GB) |
| 2015 5:49.80 | Bennys Mist (IRE) 9yo 10-4 8/1 | Liam Treadwell Venetia Williams (GB) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Grand Sefton have been based:
- GB: 20 winners with an additional 44 placings from 269 runners
- IRE: 0 winners with an additional 4 placings from 22 runners
- FR: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 3 runners
2024 Grand Sefton Replay
Grand Sefton Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the Grand Sefton over the last 20 renewals is David Pipe, who has won the race two times, with those two winners coming from Poole Master (2014) and King Turgeon (2024). There is one trainer who has not had the best of times in the Grand Sefton; Donald McCain has sent a total of 11 runners to the race without recording any wins.
Here are the Grand Sefton trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals for trainers who have entries in the 2025 renewal; those not listed have not had a runner. (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Pipe | 9-2-2 | +22.50 | +11.44 |
| Venetia Williams | 10-1-3 | -1.00 | -1.45 |
| Jamie Snowden | 3-1-1 | +14.00 | +8.00 |
| Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero | 3-1-3 | +1.33 | +3.00 |
| Sam Thomas | 1-1-1 | +5.00 | +3.13 |
| Donald McCain | 11-0-1 | -11.00 | -5.50 |
| Nicky Henderson | 5-0-1 | -5.00 | -4.05 |
| Dan Skelton | 3-0-0 | -3.00 | -3.00 |
| Jedd O'Keeffe | 1-0-1 | -1.00 | +1.50 |
Grand Sefton Jockey Statistics
The leading jockey in the Grand Sefton over the last 20 renewals is Sean Bowen, who has won the race two times, with those two winners coming from As De Mee (2016) and Warriors Tale (2018).
Here are the Grand Sefton jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals for jockeys who have rides in the 2025 renewal; those not listed have not had a runner. (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Bowen (White Rhino) | 6-2-3 | +7.50 | +4.00 |
| Sam Twiston-Davies (Vintage Fizz) | 10-1-1 | -5.50 | -6.90 |
| Brian Hughes (Bleu dEnfer) | 8-1-1 | +3.00 | -0.75 |
| Charlie Deutsch (Frero Banbou) | 5-1-2 | +1.00 | +0.18 |
| Robert Dunne (Gaboriot) | 2-1-1 | +3.50 | +1.70 |
| Jack Tudor (King Turgeon) | 1-1-1 | +4.50 | +2.81 |
| Gavin Sheehan (Colonel Harry) | 3-0-2 | -3.00 | +0.50 |
| Kielan Woods (Happy And Fine) | 2-0-0 | -2.00 | -2.00 |
| Harry Skelton (Jet Plane) | 2-0-0 | -2.00 | -2.00 |
| Jonjo O'Neill Jr (Johnnywho) | 1-0-1 | -1.00 | +0.44 |
| Nico de Boinville (Excello) | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| Lee Edwards (Mahons Glory) | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
2025 Grand Sefton Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): (4, 12), (F, 2), PU, PU, UR, (3, F), 2, 1, PU, 8, 5, 1, 1, (3, 8, F), 4, 8, 5, 4, 1, 8
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones, as you would expect them to do well.
- 20 / 20 (80%) - Ran in 3 - 24 races (Going)
- 20 / 20 (82%) - Ran in 15 - 54 races (Career)
- 20 / 20 (82%) - Ran in 5 - 24 races (Chase)
- 20 / 20 (84%) - Achieved an RPR of 109+ (Going)
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Ran in 3 - 10 races (1 Year)
- 20 / 20 (88%) - In a field of 6 - 18 (Debut)
- 20 / 20 (89%) - Ran in 5 - 37 races (Hcps)
- 20 / 20 (89%) - Had 6 - 23 placings (Career)
- 18 / 20 (72%) - No bigger than 20/1
- 17 / 20 (75%) - Achieved a TS of 112+ (Hcps)
- 17 / 20 (78%) - No older than a 9yo
- 17 / 20 (82%) - No more than +3yrs (Vs Min Age)
- 16 / 20 (65%) - Achieved a TS of 109+ (Last 5)
- 16 / 20 (69%) - Within the first 10 of the market
- 16 / 20 (74%) - No more than -3yrs (Vs Max Age)
Remember to use the trends listed above, along with the Aintree racing predictions, to see if you can find the winner of the Grand Sefton. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles covering numerous topics.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over ÂŁ6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, it is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Grand Sefton by adding a tip on the race here.
101 Ways to find Winners in Horse Racing
Grand Sefton Trend Shortlist
Aintree will host the 2025 renewal of the Grand Sefton, which will be run at 2:40 pm on Saturday, 8th November 2025, and these are the runners who perform best based on the trends, along with the trainer and jockey and their record in the race (Runs-Wins-Places Win LSP / EW LSP):
- 15/15 Jet Plane (11/1)
- Dan Skelton (3-0-0 -3.00 / -3.00)
- Harry Skelton (2-0-0 -2.00 / -2.00)
- 15/15 Mahons Glory (14/1)
- Dylan Cunha (0-0-0 0.00 / 0.00)
- Lee Edwards (1-0-0 -1.00 / -1.00)
Others: Excello (14/15), Happy And Fine (14/15), King Turgeon (14/15), Gaboriot (14/15), Vintage Fizz (13/15), Nocte Volatus (12/15), White Rhino (12/15), Frero Banbou (12/15), Our Power (12/15), Mount Tempest (11/15), Seddon (11/15), If Not For Dylan (11/15), Johnnywho (11/15), Bleu dEnfer (10/15) and Colonel Harry (10/15).
*Trainer & Jockey numbers are Runs-Wins-Places Win LSP / EW LSP, Runners, Odds and Trends Passed/Failed correct at the time of posting (4:32 pm Thursday 6th November 2025), if no odds were available at the time of posting, then forecasted odds are used.
Grand Sefton Trend Analysis
â The trend factor, which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +91.50, is when runners had 0 season places.
â The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners ran over 3m last time out, when backing these, the trend shows a record of 0-39.
The courses that have produced the most winners of the Grand Sefton are Aintree and Cheltenham; there have been a total of 4 winners from each of those courses.
The race is open to both sexes, with the Male runners having produced a total of 20 winners from a total of 289 runners, whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 5 runners.
Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Grand Sefton; that stallion, Midnight Legend, has produced 2 winners (2021,2018).
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Grand Sefton despite multiple attempts:
- Presenting (0 Wins from 13 runners)
- Dr Massini (0 Wins from 5 runners)
- Kayf Tara (0 Wins from 5 runners)
- Yeats (0 Wins from 5 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Lampion Du Bost in 2007, winning for Jim Goldie at odds of 66/1 under the guidance of Phil Kinsella. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals, there have been 4 winning favourites in the race. Ahead of the 2025 Grand Sefton, why not head over to the best racing tipster page to see what the tipsters are backing today?
Route to the Grand Sefton
Many trainers target races as preparation for the Grand Sefton. These are the races which the recent winners ran in before coming here:
| Info | Last Race |
|---|---|
| 2024 - King Turgeon Chepstow - 1st of 14 (8/1) | Colourfence Newport Fencing Guaranteed For 25Yrs Handicap Chase |
| 2023 - Gesskille Auteuil - 1st of 9 (113/10) | Prix Richard et Robert Hennessy |
| 2022 - Al Dancer Newbury - 2nd of 5 (313/100) | Highclere Thoroughbred Racing Handicap Chase |
| 2021 - Mac Tottie Fontwell - 4th of 4 (3/1) | Cazoo Handicap Chase |
| 2020 - Beau Bay Wetherby - 5th of 9 (18/1) | Watch Racing TV Anywhere Handicap Chase |
| 2019 - Hogans Height Aintree - 7th of 11 (12/1) | Premier League Betting At Virgin Bet Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle |
| 2018 - Warriors Tale Aintree - 4th of 11 (16/1) | Rewards4Racing Handicap Chase |
| 2017 - Gas Line Boy Aintree - F of 16 (6/1) | In Play Betting At 188Bet Veterans Handicap Chase |
| 2016 - As De Mee Cheltenham - 8th of 17 (7/1) | Paddy Power Gold Cup |
| 2015 - Bennys Mist Cheltenham - PU of 20 (33/1) | Paddy Power Gold Cup |
Article Contributor Information
We are fortunate to have an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to the creation and maintenance of this Grand Sefton Preview are Andy and Darren. They both work on the Horse racing tips team, looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for National Hunt Racing.
Darren Brett
Expert Guide
Andy Powell
Expert Guide
