2023 National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup Preview, Trends & Analysis

The National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup is run over a trip of three miles and six furlongs during which the runners will face a total of 23 fences and features amateur jockeys.

2023 National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup Preview, Trends & Analysis

2023 National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup Preview

Previously staged over 4 miles with 25 fences to be negotiated, the National Hunt Chase underwent a few tweaks for the 2020 renewal after changes were announced in August 2019 by the British Horse Racing Authority on the grounds of welfare standards. The race distance was reduced to just short of 3 miles and 6 furlongs moving forward and the number of fences jumped has decreased from 25 to 23.

The amateur jockeys competing must also have ridden at least 5 winners over fences and taken at least 20 mounts under rules (which excludes point to points). These changes should in no way detract from what has been a significant stepping stone for future top staying chase winners.

Dual Grand National winner Tiger Roll won this in 2017, Native River was runner up in 2016 before going on to Gold Cup glory in 2018 and he chased home Minella Rocco who finished runner in the 2017 Gold Cup. So this extreme distance for fairly unexposed fledgeling chasers is a race worth keeping in those trackers for possible future Grand National tips and Gold Cup pointers.

National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup Content:

Our dedicated Cheltenham Betting Picks will not only bring you predictions from the OLBG racing tipsters for the upcoming card that includes the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup but will also have predictions for each meeting at Cheltenham throughout the season so be sure to head over there.

When looking over the past 20 renewals, a time of 7:37.80 was set by Stattler in 2022, that is the quickest time over that period, the runner was trained by W P Mullins and ridden by Mr P W Mullins. The slowest winning time was set in 2018 when Rathvinden won in a time of 8:50.30, booked to ride was Mr P W Mullins on this W P Mullins trained runner.

These are the top three quickest run National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2022 - Stattler (7:37.80)
  • 2021 - Galvin (7:57.84)
  • 2014 - Midnight Prayer (8:07.62)

How competitive is the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2022 when the race had an over-round of 109%. The race in 2003 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 137%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup, the over-round has been 122%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £122 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup next time out then you would have back a total of 2 winners. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -2.00. Remember to bookmark the racing tips page so you can get easy access to the OLBG racing picks on a daily basis.

National Hunt Chase 11 Aug @ 13:29 - AntePost
Gaillard Du Mesnil 8.00
Three Stripe Life 11.00
The Nice Guy 13.00
Minella Cocooner 15.00
Hillcrest 17.00
Frontal Assault 17.00
Bardenstown Lad 21.00
Gerri Colombe 21.00
Ash Tree Meadow 26.00
Hollow Games 26.00

National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup Past Winners

Here are the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse Info
2022
7:37.80
Stattler (IRE)
7yo 11-6 2/1
Mr P W Mullins
W P Mullins (IRE)
2021
7:57.84
Galvin (IRE)
7yo 11-6 7/2
Jack Kennedy
I R Ferguson (IRE)
2020
8:25.16
Ravenhill (IRE)
10yo 11-6 12/1
Mr J J Codd
Gordon Elliott (IRE)
2019
8:42.32
Le Breuil (FR)
7yo 11-6 14/1
Mr J J Codd
Ben Pauling (GB)
2018
8:50.30
Rathvinden (IRE)
10yo 11-6 9/2
Mr P W Mullins
W P Mullins (IRE)
2017
8:22.50
Tiger Roll (IRE)
7yo 11-6 16/1
Ms L O'Neill
Gordon Elliott (IRE)
2016
8:14.00
Minella Rocco (IRE)
6yo 11-6 8/1
Mr Derek O'Connor
Jonjo O'Neill (GB)
2015
8:18.60
Cause Of Causes (USA)
7yo 11-6 8/1
Mr J J Codd
Gordon Elliott (IRE)
2014
8:07.62
Midnight Prayer (GB)
9yo 11-6 8/1
Mr Joshua Newman
Alan King (GB)
2013
8:32.10
Back In Focus (IRE)
8yo 11-6 9/4F
Mr P W Mullins
W P Mullins (IRE)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup have been based:

  • GB: 10 winners with an additional 22 placings from 251 runners
  • IRE: 8 winners with an additional 16 placings from 94 runners
  • FR: 2 winners with an additional 1 placing from 6 runners

National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup Trainer Statistics

There are two leading trainers in the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup over the last 20 renewals with both Jonjo O'Neill & Gordon Elliott who have both won the race 4 times. Jonjo O'Neill winners have been with Sudden Shock (2003), Native Emperor (2004), Butlers Cabin (2007) & Minella Rocco (2016). Gordon Elliott winners have been with Chicago Grey (2011), Cause Of Causes (2015), Tiger Roll (2017) & Ravenhill (2020). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup are W P Mullins (3 wins) & Alan King (2 wins). There are two trainers who have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup, Paul Nicholls has sent a total of 15 runners to the race without recording any wins whilst David Pipe has sent out 12 without a winner.

Here are some of the top National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
Jonjo O'Neill 20-4-5 +55.00 +20.00
Gordon Elliott 11-4-5 +34.00 +15.43
W P Mullins 20-3-6 -8.25 -9.97
Alan King 10-2-3 +9.00 +1.80
Nigel Twiston-Davies 14-1-1 -2.00 -7.50
Rebecca Curtis 7-1-1 -1.00 -3.50
Ben Pauling 3-1-1 +12.00 +5.00
Ian Duncan 1-1-1 +40.00 +20.00
Paul Nicholls 15-0-2 -15.00 -13.70
David Pipe 12-0-2 -12.00 -11.00

National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup Jockey Statistics

There are two leading jockeys in the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup over the last twenty renewals with both Mr J J Codd & Mr P W Mullins who have both won the race 3 times. Mr J J Codd winners have been with Cause Of Causes (2015), Le Breuil (2019) & Ravenhill (2020). Mr P W Mullins winners have been with Back In Focus (2013), Rathvinden (2018) & Stattler (2022). The only other jockey to have recorded multiple wins in the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup is Mr Derek O'Connor (2 wins). There are two jockeys who have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup, Mr B O'Neill has had a total of 11 rides to the race without recording any wins whilst Mr William Biddick has had 11 rides without a winner.

Here are some of the top National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Mr J J Codd 15-3-4 +22.00 +6.93
Mr P W Mullins 11-3-5 +0.75 -1.47
Mr Derek O'Connor 16-2-6 -1.00 -5.15
Mr Sam Waley-Cohen 10-1-3 +2.00 -1.95
Mr Joshua Newman 5-1-1 +4.00 +0.80
Mr M J O'Hare 4-1-1 +37.00 +17.00
Ms L O'Neill 4-1-1 +13.00 +5.00
Jack Kennedy 1-1-1 +3.50 +2.10
Mr William Biddick 11-0-4 -11.00 -5.70
Mr B O'Neill 11-0-2 -11.00 -10.00

2023 National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup Trends

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,2,(1,4),5,3,F,5,4,5,1,1,1,9,10,4,5,UR,F,UR,3,2

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (75%) - No bigger than 40/1
  • 20 / 20 (79%) - Beaten no more 19l (Debut)
  • 20 / 20 (79%) - Carried 141-164lbs (Last Win)
  • 20 / 20 (80%) - Within first 14 of market
  • 20 / 20 (83%) - Ran over 2m4f - 3m2f (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (84%) - Made 4-13 starts (1 Year)
  • 20 / 20 (85%) - Off a break of 18-144 days
  • 20 / 20 (87%) - Furthest placed 2m4½f - 3m3f
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - Not in Wales or Scotland (Debut)
  • 19 / 20 (70%) - Not 7-11 starts (Career)
  • 19 / 20 (75%) - Last win not in Beginners
  • 19 / 20 (82%) - Fewer than 13 runners (LTO)
  • 19 / 20 (86%) - No bigger than 12/1 (LTO)
  • 19 / 20 (88%) - Last win within last 8 starts
  • 18 / 20 (72%) - Made 4+ starts (Season)
  • 18 / 20 (84%) - No bigger than 25/1 (Debut)

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Cheltenham racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup. If there is anything that you do not understand in this blog, please do leave a comment or alternatively, head over to the Horse Racing Terms and Abbreviations article which is available in the OLBG Betting School section.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not! With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then why share your thoughts on the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup by adding a tip on the race here.

National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +36.50 is when runners were aged 7yo. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 1 career win in Non-Handicap races, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-74.

The courses which have produced the most winners of the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup are Leopardstown and Cheltenham, there has been a total number of 3 winners from each of those courses.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 20 winners from a total of 334 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 17 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup, that stallion is Oscar who has produced 2 winners (2012,2009).

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup despite multiple attempts:

  • Presenting (0 Wins from 22 runners)
  • Flemensfirth (0 Wins from 15 runners)
  • Beneficial (0 Wins from 9 runners)
  • Kayf Tara (0 Wins from 8 runners)
  • Supreme Leader (0 Wins from 8 runners)
  • Accordion (0 Wins from 7 runners)
  • Milan (0 Wins from 7 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest priced winner was Another Rum in 2005 when winning for Ian Duncan at odds of 40/1 under the guidance of Mr M J O'Hare. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 4 winning favourites in the race. Ahead of the 2023 National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup why not head over to the best racing tipster page to see what the tipsters are backing today.

Schedule at the Cheltenham Festival

Have a look at our racing tipsters Cheltenham predictions for the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup. Next up is the Ballymore Novices Hurdle, head over to find trends and tips.

Cheltenham Festival races for Tuesday 14th March 2023

Race 2022 Winner Info
13:30 Cheltenham
Supreme Novices Hurdle
Constitution Hill (GB)
5yo - 9/4
Nicky Henderson
Nico de Boinville
14:10 Cheltenham
Arkle Challenge Trophy
Edwardstone (GB)
8yo - 5/2
Alan King
Tom Cannon
14:50 Cheltenham
Ultima Handicap Chase
Corach Rambler (IRE)
8yo - 10/1
Lucinda Russell
Derek Fox
15:30 Cheltenham
Champion Hurdle
Honeysuckle (GB)
8yo - 8/11
Henry De Bromhead
Rachael Blackmore
16:10 Cheltenham
Close Brothers Mares Hurdle
Maries Rock (IRE)
7yo - 18/1
Nicky Henderson
Nico de Boinville
16:50 Cheltenham
Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
Brazil (IRE)
4yo - 10/1
Padraig Roche
Mark Walsh
17:30 Cheltenham
National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup
Stattler (IRE)
7yo - 2/1
W P Mullins
Mr P W Mullins

Cheltenham Festival races for Wednesday 15th March 2023

Race 2022 Winner Info
13:30 Cheltenham
Ballymore Novices Hurdle
Sir Gerhard (IRE)
7yo - 8/11
W P Mullins
Paul Townend
14:10 Cheltenham
Brown Advisory Novices Chase
LHomme Presse (FR)
7yo - 9/4
Venetia Williams
Charlie Deutsch
14:50 Cheltenham
Coral Cup (Link)
Commander Of Fleet (IRE)
8yo - 50/1
Gordon Elliott
Shane Fitzgerald
15:30 Cheltenham
Queen Mother Champion Chase
Energumene (FR)
8yo - 5/2
W P Mullins
Paul Townend
16:10 Cheltenham
Cross Country Chase
Delta Work (FR)
9yo - 5/2
Gordon Elliott
Jack Kennedy
16:50 Cheltenham
Johnny Henderson Grand Annual
Global Citizen (IRE)
10yo - 28/1
Ben Pauling
Kielan Woods
17:30 Cheltenham
Champion Bumper
Facile Vega (IRE)
5yo - 15/8
W P Mullins
Mr P W Mullins

Cheltenham Festival races for Thursday 16th March 2023

Race 2022 Winner Info
13:30 Cheltenham
Turners Novices Chase
Bob Olinger (IRE)
7yo - 6/5
Henry De Bromhead
Rachael Blackmore
14:10 Cheltenham
Pertemps Network Final
Third Wind (GB)
8yo - 25/1
Hughie Morrison
Tom OBrien
14:50 Cheltenham
Ryanair Chase
Allaho (FR)
8yo - 4/7
W P Mullins
Paul Townend
15:30 Cheltenham
Stayers Hurdle
Flooring Porter (IRE)
7yo - 4/1
Gavin Cromwell
Danny Mullins
16:10 Cheltenham
Festival Plate
Coole Cody (IRE)
11yo - 22/1
Evan Williams
Adam Wedge
16:50 Cheltenham
Ryanair Mares Novices Hurdle
Love Envoi (IRE)
6yo - 15/2
Harry Fry
Jonathan Burke
17:30 Cheltenham
Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup
Chambard (FR)
10yo - 40/1
Venetia Williams
Miss Lucy Turner

Cheltenham Festival races for Friday 17th March 2023

Race 2022 Winner Info
13:30 Cheltenham
JCB Triumph Hurdle
Vauban (FR)
4yo - 6/4
W P Mullins
Paul Townend
14:10 Cheltenham
County Handicap Hurdle
State Man (FR)
5yo - 11/4
W P Mullins
Paul Townend
14:50 Cheltenham
Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle
The Nice Guy (IRE)
7yo - 18/1
W P Mullins
Sean OKeeffe
15:30 Cheltenham
Cheltenham Gold Cup
A Plus Tard (FR)
8yo - 3/1
Henry De Bromhead
Rachael Blackmore
16:10 Cheltenham
Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup
Billaway (IRE)
10yo - 13/8
W P Mullins
Mr P W Mullins
16:50 Cheltenham
Mrs PP Mares Chase
Elimay (FR)
8yo - 9/4
W P Mullins
Mark Walsh
17:30 Cheltenham
Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle
Banbridge (IRE)
6yo - 12/1
Joseph Patrick OBrien
M M McDonagh

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