2023 Classic Novices Hurdle Preview, Trends & Analysis

2023 Classic Novices Hurdle Preview, Trends & Analysis

2023 Classic Novices Hurdle Preview

Scheduled to take place in January during trials day of each year at the Cheltenham racecourse is the Classic Novices Hurdle which is run over a distance of two miles, four and a half furlongs and is open to runners ages four or older who are novice hurdlers.

In terms of future form, the race serves as a trial for the Albert Bartlett and the last eight winners of the race went on to run in that race next time out and only At Fishers Cross (2013) was successful in that race. Both Bobs Worth (2011) and Wichita Lineman (2007) also went on to win the Albert Bartlett at the festival too.

Classic Novices Hurdle Content:

To see which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are tipping throughout the card that includes this race, head over to the Cheltenham Betting Picks on the day of the race, do they agree with the runners on the trend shortlist or are they predicting other runners?

The runner that holds the record over the past 16 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2013 renewal when At Fishers Cross from Rebecca Curtis who under the guidance of A P McCoy, won in a time of 5:33.17, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, North Lodge, trained by Alan King and ridden by A P Heskin set the quickest time of 5:01.14 in the 2022 renewal.

These are the top three quickest run Classic Novices Hurdle over the last 16 renewals:

  • 2022 - North Lodge (5:01.14)
  • 2012 - Batonnier (5:02.00)
  • 2017 - Wholestone (5:04.10)

How competitive is the Classic Novices Hurdle market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 16 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2022 when the race had an over-round of 109%. The race in 2008 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 118%, whilst on average over the last 16 renewals of the Classic Novices Hurdle, the over-round has been 113%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £113 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 16 if you had followed the winner of the Classic Novices Hurdle next time out then you would have back a total of 3 winners. Backing all 15 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -7.36. Remember to bookmark the racing tips page so you can get easy access to the OLBG racing picks on a daily basis.

Classic Novices Hurdle Past Winners

Here are the Classic Novices Hurdle past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Classic Novices Hurdle as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse Info
North Lodge (IRE)
5yo 11-5 7/1
A P Heskin
Alan King (GB)
Harry Senior (IRE)
6yo 11-5 4/1
Robbie Power
Colin Tizzard (GB)
Birchdale (IRE)
5yo 11-5 2/1
Barry Geraghty
Nicky Henderson (GB)
Santini (GB)
6yo 11-5 4/1
Jeremiah McGrath
Nicky Henderson (GB)
Wholestone (IRE)
6yo 11-10 11/4F
Daryl Jacob
Nigel Twiston-Davies (GB)
Yanworth (GB)
6yo 11-12 2/1F
Barry Geraghty
Alan King (GB)
Ordo Ab Chao (IRE)
6yo 11-9 16/1
Wayne Hutchinson
Alan King (GB)
Red Sherlock (GB)
5yo 11-9 9/4
Tom Scudamore
David Pipe (GB)
At Fishers Cross (IRE)
6yo 11-12 13/2
A P McCoy
Rebecca Curtis (GB)
Batonnier (FR)
6yo 11-5 12/1
Wayne Hutchinson
Alan King (GB)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Classic Novices Hurdle have been based:

  • GB: 15 winners with an additional 25 placings from 127 runners
  • FR: 1 winner with an additional 0 placings from 2 runners
  • IRE: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 3 runners

Classic Novices Hurdle Trainer Statistics

There are two leading trainers in the Classic Novices Hurdle over the last 16 renewals with both Nicky Henderson & Alan King who have both won the race 4 times. Nicky Henderson winners have been with Aigle DOr (2008), Bobs Worth (2011), Santini (2018) & Birchdale (2019). Alan King winners have been with Batonnier (2012), Ordo Ab Chao (2015), Yanworth (2016) & North Lodge (2022).

Here are some of the top Classic Novices Hurdle trainer statistics over the last 16 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
Nicky Henderson 12-4-8 +3.25 +2.27
Alan King 10-4-7 +31.00 +20.54
Colin Tizzard 8-1-1 -3.00 -4.60
Nigel Twiston-Davies 6-1-2 -2.25 -2.75
David Pipe 4-1-2 -0.75 -0.49
Nick Williams 3-1-1 -1.47 -1.67
Rebecca Curtis 2-1-1 +5.50 +3.06
Jonjo O'Neill 2-1-1 +0.00 -0.40
Robin Dickin 1-1-1 +3.50 +2.19
Paul Nicholls 9-0-3 -9.00 -5.40

Classic Novices Hurdle Jockey Statistics

Here are some of the top Classic Novices Hurdle jockey statistics over the last 16 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Tom Scudamore 8-1-3 -4.75 -3.19
Daryl Jacob 3-1-1 +0.75 -0.35
A P Heskin 2-1-1 +6.00 +3.38
Jeremiah McGrath 1-1-1 +4.00 +2.40
Robbie Power 1-1-1 +4.00 +2.40
Paddy Brennan 9-0-3 -9.00 -4.03
Harry Skelton 3-0-3 -3.00 -0.14
Brian Hughes 3-0-0 -3.00 -3.00
Tom O'Brien 3-0-0 -3.00 -3.00
Sam Twiston-Davies 2-0-2 -2.00 -0.10

2023 Classic Novices Hurdle Trends

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,2,1,1,1,3,4,2,2,2,2,1,1,4,F,2,UR

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 16 / 16 (72%) - No bigger than 16/1
  • 16 / 16 (73%) - Carried 148-162lbs (Last Win)
  • 16 / 16 (75%) - Dam is FR or IRE bred
  • 16 / 16 (77%) - Furthest placed 2m1f - 3m
  • 16 / 16 (79%) - Had 1-5 wins (Non-Hcp)
  • 16 / 16 (80%) - Within first 7 of market
  • 16 / 16 (80%) - Beaten no more 9¼l (Debut)
  • 16 / 16 (83%) - No bigger than 40/1 (Career)
  • 16 / 16 (84%) - Placed within past 14-85 days
  • 16 / 16 (85%) - Made 1-6 starts (1 Year)
  • 16 / 16 (85%) - Had 1-3 placings (90 Days)
  • 16 / 16 (85%) - Made 1-4 starts (180 Days)
  • 16 / 16 (85%) - No older than a 6yo
  • 16 / 16 (85%) - Beaten no more 17½l (LTO)

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Cheltenham racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Classic Novices Hurdle. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles like the How to Find Winners - 101 Tips to Choose A Winning Horse Racing Bet.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not! With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then why share your thoughts on the Classic Novices Hurdle by adding a tip on the race here.

Classic Novices Hurdle Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 8+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +15.78 is when runners finished in 1st on debut. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 2 wins in the past year, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-36.

The courses which have produced the most winners of the Classic Novices Hurdle are Cheltenham and Newbury, there has been a total number of 4 winners from each of those courses.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 16 winners from a total of 127 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 5 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Classic Novices Hurdle:

  • Oscar (2 Wins)
  • Sir Harry Lewis (2 Wins)

Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have been disappointed with multiple attempts but no wins in the Classic Novices Hurdle, that stallion is Flemensfirth who has failed to produce a winner from 8 runners.

Looking at the winning odds over the last 16 renewals, the biggest priced winner was Ordo Ab Chao in 2015 when winning for Alan King at odds of 16/1 under the guidance of Wayne Hutchinson. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 16 renewals there has been a total of 5 winning favourites in the race. Before placing your bet on the 2023 Classic Novices Hurdle see which other runners today are being back by the best racing tipsters today.

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