2023 Mersey Novices Hurdle Preview, Trends & Analysis

The Mersey Novices Hurdle, a Grade 1 hurdle is open to runners aged four or older who came into the season without a win over hurdles, the race is run over a trip of two miles and four furlongs where the runners will face eleven hurdles.

2023 Mersey Novices Hurdle Preview, Trends & Analysis

2023 Mersey Novices Hurdle Preview

Scheduled to take place in April of each year at the Aintree racecourse is the Mersey Novices Hurdle, a Grade 1 hurdle that takes place during the Grand National meeting, the race is open to runners aged four or older who came into the season without a win over hurdles, the race is run over a trip of two miles and four furlongs where the runners will face eleven hurdles.

Mersey Novices Hurdle Content:

To see which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are tipping throughout the card that includes this race, head over to the Aintree Betting Picks on the day of the race, do they agree with the runners on the trend shortlist or are they predicting other runners?

Over the last 20 renewals, it was the W P Mullins trained Nichols Canyon ridden by R Walsh who has set the fastest winning time in the Mersey Novices Hurdle, the runner won the race in a time of 4:45.80 that was set when winning the race in 2015. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer Nicky Richards and jockey Tony Dobbin with Turpin Green who set the slowest winning time, the race-winning time was 5:11.60 in the 2005 renewal.

These are the top three quickest run Mersey Novices Hurdle over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2015 - Nichols Canyon (4:45.80)
  • 2019 - Reserve Tank (4:50.30)
  • 2014 - Lac Fontana (4:50.60)

How competitive is the Mersey Novices Hurdle market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2013 when the race had an over-round of 114%. The race in 2003 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 127%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Mersey Novices Hurdle, the over-round has been 118%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £118 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Mersey Novices Hurdle next time out then you would have back a total of 8 winners. Backing all 18 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of +1.68. Ahead of the 2023 Mersey Novices Hurdle why not head over to the racing predictions for tips on other races today.

Mersey Novices Hurdle Past Winners

Here are the Mersey Novices Hurdle past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Mersey Novices Hurdle as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse Info
2022
4:55.21
Three Stripe Life (IRE)
6yo 11-4 5/2F
Davy Russell
Gordon Elliott (IRE)
2021
4:55.36
My Drogo (GB)
6yo 11-4 5/4F
Harry Skelton
Dan Skelton (GB)
2019
4:50.30
Reserve Tank (IRE)
5yo 11-4 20/1
Robbie Power
Colin Tizzard (GB)
2018
5:04.70
Black Op (IRE)
7yo 11-4 3/1
Noel Fehily
Tom George (GB)
2017
4:51.40
Finians Oscar (IRE)
5yo 11-4 3/1F
Robbie Power
Colin Tizzard (GB)
2016
5:10.10
Yorkhill (IRE)
6yo 11-4 30/100F
Paul Townend
W P Mullins (IRE)
2015
4:45.80
Nichols Canyon (GB)
5yo 11-4 3/1F
R Walsh
W P Mullins (IRE)
2014
4:50.60
Lac Fontana (FR)
5yo 11-4 9/2F
A P McCoy
Paul Nicholls (GB)
2013
5:02.10
Ubak (FR)
5yo 11-4 22/1
Jamie Moore
Gary Moore (GB)
2012
4:55.00
Simonsig (GB)
6yo 11-4 4/9F
Barry Geraghty
Nicky Henderson (GB)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Mersey Novices Hurdle have been based:

  • GB: 16 winners with an additional 36 placings from 190 runners
  • IRE: 4 winners with an additional 4 placings from 29 runners

Mersey Novices Hurdle Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the Mersey Novices Hurdle over the last 20 renewals is Paul Nicholls who has won the race 4 times. Those 4 winners came from Garde Champetre (2004), Natal (2006), Elusive Dream (2008) & Lac Fontana (2014). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Mersey Novices Hurdle are Nicky Henderson (2 wins), Colin Tizzard (2 wins) & W P Mullins (2 wins). There is one trainer who has not had the best of times in the Mersey Novices Hurdle, Alan King has sent a total of 14 runners to the race without recording any wins.

Here are some of the top Mersey Novices Hurdle trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
Paul Nicholls 14-4-7 +6.00 +2.95
Nicky Henderson 18-2-5 -12.56 -11.72
Colin Tizzard 6-2-4 +19.00 +12.25
W P Mullins 5-2-3 +0.30 +0.19
Nicky Richards 8-1-4 +7.00 +7.00
Donald McCain 8-1-4 -5.75 -2.45
Dan Skelton 5-1-4 -2.75 +1.35
Gary Moore 3-1-1 +20.00 +11.20
Tom George 3-1-1 +1.00 -0.20
Emma Lavelle 2-1-1 +15.00 +7.00

Mersey Novices Hurdle Jockey Statistics

The leading jockey in the Mersey Novices Hurdle over the last 20 renewals is Robbie Power who has won the race 2 times. Those 2 winners came from Finians Oscar (2017) & Reserve Tank (2019).

Here are some of the top Mersey Novices Hurdle jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Robbie Power 3-2-3 +22.00 +14.50
Paddy Brennan 5-1-1 -1.75 -2.65
Harry Skelton 5-1-4 -2.75 +1.35
Jamie Moore 4-1-1 +19.00 +10.20
Davy Russell 4-1-1 -0.50 -1.50
Paul Townend 3-1-1 -1.70 -1.81
Sam Twiston-Davies 6-0-4 -6.00 +1.50
Tom Scudamore 6-0-1 -6.00 -4.85
Nico de Boinville 6-0-1 -6.00 -5.23
Brian Hughes 5-0-1 -5.00 -3.30

2023 Mersey Novices Hurdle Trends

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,2,F,4,3,(1,2),5,3,5,1,2,1,6,1,1,1,1,6,3,1,1

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (64%) - No bigger than 22/1
  • 20 / 20 (68%) - Furthest ran not 2m3f - 2m4½f
  • 20 / 20 (75%) - Within first eight of market
  • 20 / 20 (84%) - Made 3-9 starts (1 Year)
  • 20 / 20 (84%) - Not in Cl2/3/5/6 (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (87%) - Last placed with 20-292 days
  • 20 / 20 (87%) - Highest ran not Class 2 or 3
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - Made 1-3 starts (90 Days)
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - Made 1-9 starts (Non-Hcps)
  • 20 / 20 (90%) - 1-5 Placings over hurdles
  • 19 / 20 (69%) - Off a 20-55 day break
  • 19 / 20 (78%) - Beaten no more than 13l (LTO)
  • 19 / 20 (84%) - No bigger than 16/1 (LTO)
  • 18 / 20 (76%) - Ran in England (LTO)
  • 18 / 20 (82%) - Last win not in a Grade 2

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Aintree racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Mersey Novices Hurdle. If you are a newcomer to horse racing betting, then the number of types of bets can be scary! Don't let that put you off though, head over to this Types Of Horse Racing Bet article and have a read, you will then have a better knowledge of betting on racing in the future and there are plenty of other articles in the OLBG Betting School too.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not! With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then why share your thoughts on the Mersey Novices Hurdle by adding a tip on the race here.

Mersey Novices Hurdle Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +49.24 is when runners ran over 2m5f last time out. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had a furthest trip run of 2m4f, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-28.

The course which has produced the most winners of the Mersey Novices Hurdle is Cheltenham, there has been a total number of 13 winners of this race who ran at Cheltenham last time out.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 20 winners from a total of 202 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 17 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Mersey Novices Hurdle:

  • Oscar (2 Wins)
  • Presenting (2 Wins)

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Mersey Novices Hurdle despite multiple attempts:

  • Fame And Glory (0 Wins from 5 runners)
  • Kings Theatre (0 Wins from 5 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest priced winner was Ubak in 2013 when winning for Gary Moore at odds of 22/1 under the guidance of Jamie Moore. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 9 winning favourites in the race. Whilst we wait for the 2023 Mersey Novices Hurdle remember you can get daily racing predictions from the top racing tipsters on the best racing tipsters page.

Schedule at The Aintree Grand National Meeting

Remember to head over to the Aintree predictions page to see which runner the racing tipsters are supporting in the Mersey Novices Hurdle and don't forget that we also have a dedicated site for the 2023 Aintree Grand National. Below is the schedule for the 2023 Aintree Festival with links to each race blog as well as information for last year's winners.

Aintree Festival races for Thursday 13th April 2023

Race 2022 Winner Info
13:45 Cheltenham
Manifesto Novices Chase
Millers Bank (GB)
8yo - 7/1
Alex Hales
Kielan Woods
14:20 Cheltenham
Anniversary 4YO Juveniles Hurdle
Knight Salute (GB)
4yo - 14/1
Milton Harris
Paddy Brennan
14:55 Cheltenham
Bowl Chase
Clan Des Obeaux (FR)
10yo - 13/2
Paul Nicholls
Harry Cobden
15:30 Cheltenham
Aintree Hurdle
Epatante (FR)
8yo - 2/1
Nicky Henderson
Aidan Coleman
16:05 Cheltenham
Foxhunters Chase
Latenightpass (GB)
9yo - 7/2
T Ellis
Miss Gina Andrews
16:40 Cheltenham
Red Rum Handicap Chase
The Last Day (IRE)
10yo - 12/1
Evan Williams
Adam Wedge
17:15 Cheltenham
Nickel Coin Mares Bumper
Ashroe Diamond (IRE)
5yo - 9/4
W P Mullins
Mr P W Mullins

Aintree Festival races for Friday 14th April 2023

Race 2022 Winner Info
13:45 Cheltenham
20 Years Together Handicap Hurdle
Langer Dan (IRE)
6yo - 4/1
Dan Skelton
Harry Skelton
14:20 Cheltenham
Top Novices Hurdle
Jonbon (FR)
6yo - 1/1
Nicky Henderson
Aidan Coleman
14:55 Cheltenham
Mildmay Novices Chase
Ahoy Senor (IRE)
7yo - 4/1
Lucinda Russell
Derek Fox
15:30 Cheltenham
Marsh Chase
Fakir Doudairies (FR)
7yo - 10/11
Joseph Patrick OBrien
Mark Walsh
16:05 Cheltenham
Topham Chase
Mac Tottie (GB)
9yo - 8/1
Peter Bowen
Sean Bowen
16:40 Cheltenham
Sefton Novices Hurdle
Gelino Bello (FR)
6yo - 7/2
Paul Nicholls
Harry Cobden
17:15 Cheltenham
Park Palace Ponies Handicap Hurdle
Hacker Des Places (FR)
5yo - 10/1
Paul Nicholls
Angus Cheleda

Aintree Festival races for Saturday 15th April 2023

Race 2022 Winner Info
13:45 Cheltenham
EFT Construction Handicap Hurdle
Party Business (IRE)
6yo - 11/2
Ian Williams
Charlie Todd
14:25 Cheltenham
Mersey Novices Hurdle
Three Stripe Life (IRE)
6yo - 5/2
Gordon Elliott
Davy Russell
15:00 Cheltenham
Maghull Novices Chase
Gentleman De Mee (FR)
6yo - 7/2
W P Mullins
Mark Walsh
15:35 Cheltenham
Liverpool Hurdle
Sire Du Berlais (FR)
10yo - 16/1
Gordon Elliott
Mark Walsh
16:15 Cheltenham
Bway Handicap Chase
Sam Brown (GB)
10yo - 28/1
Anthony Honeyball
Aidan Coleman
17:15 Cheltenham
Grand National
Noble Yeats (IRE)
7yo - 50/1
Emmet Mullins
Mr Sam Waley-Cohen
18:20 Cheltenham
Champion Standard Open NH Flat Race
Lookaway (IRE)
5yo - 28/1
Neil King
Jack Quinlan

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