Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.
2025 Sefton Novices Hurdle Preview
Open to novices over hurdles, the Sefton Novices Hurdle is a Grade 1 race which is scheduled to take place in April of each year during the Grand National meeting at the Aintree racecourse.
The race is run over a trip of three miles and half a furlong in which the runners will have to jump thirteen hurdles.
Sefton Novices Hurdle Information:
- Sefton Novices Hurdle Past Winners
- Sefton Novices Hurdle Trainer Statistics
- Sefton Novices Hurdle Jockey Statistics
To see which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are tipping throughout the card that includes this race, head over to the Aintree tips on the day of the race, do they agree with the runners on the trend shortlist or are they predicting other runners? We cover every race at the Aintree Grand National Meeting and below you can find links to all of the races for each of Thursday, Friday & Saturday.
How competitive is the Sefton Novices Hurdle market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2013 when the race had an over-round of 113%. The race in 2012 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 130%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Sefton Novices Hurdle, the over-round has been 121%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £121 which is bet.
Sefton Novices Hurdle Trends:
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Sefton Novices Hurdle next time out then you would have backed a total of 9 winners. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of +3.90. Whilst we wait for the 2025 Sefton Novices Hurdle remember you can get daily racing predictions from the expert tipsters on the racing predictions page.
Over the last 20 renewals, it was the Nicky Henderson trained Beat That ridden by Barry Geraghty who set the fastest winning time in the Sefton Novices Hurdle, the runner won the race in a time of 6:02.90 was set when winning the race in 2014. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer Nicky Henderson and jockey Nico de Boinville with Santini who set the slowest winning time, the race-winning time was 6:40.80 in the 2018 renewal.
These are the top three quickest-run Sefton Novices Hurdle over the last 20 renewals:
- Beat That (6:02.90) in 2014
- Accipiter I (6:03.40) in 2004
- Thistlecrack (6:04.10) in 2015
What the expert says...
The Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival produced the 2024 winner Dancing City who finished third in that race before winning this. That was the first winner to come from the Cheltenham festival since Champ won in 2019 but also means that five of the last six winners who came from the Festival ran in the Albert Bartlett.Sefton Novices Hurdle Past Winners
Here are the Sefton Novices Hurdle past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Sefton Novices Hurdle as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 6:34.82 | Dancing City (FR) 7yo 11-8 4/1 | Paul Townend W P Mullins (IRE) |
| 2023 6:22.92 | Apple Away (IRE) 6yo 11-1 16/1 | Stephen Mulqueen Lucinda Russell (GB) |
| 2022 6:11.41 | Gelino Bello (FR) 6yo 11-7 7/2 | Harry Cobden Paul Nicholls (GB) |
| 2021 6:13.80 | Ahoy Senor (IRE) 6yo 11-4 66/1 | Derek Fox Lucinda Russell (GB) |
| 2019 6:17.90 | Champ (IRE) 7yo 11-4 9/4F | Mark Walsh Nicky Henderson (GB) |
| 2018 6:40.80 | Santini (GB) 6yo 11-4 6/4F | Nico de Boinville Nicky Henderson (GB) |
| 2017 6:05.80 | The Worlds End (IRE) 6yo 11-4 3/1 | A P Heskin Tom George (GB) |
| 2016 6:17.90 | Ballyoptic (IRE) 6yo 11-4 9/1 | Ryan Hatch Nigel Twiston-Davies (GB) |
| 2015 6:04.10 | Thistlecrack (GB) 7yo 11-4 25/1 | Tom Scudamore Colin Tizzard (GB) |
| 2014 6:02.90 | Beat That (IRE) 6yo 11-4 6/1 | Barry Geraghty Nicky Henderson (GB) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Sefton Novices Hurdle have been based:
- GB: 18 winners with an additional 37 placings from 241 runners
- IRE: 2 winners with an additional 3 placings from 32 runners
- FR: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
Sefton Novices Hurdle Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the Sefton Novices Hurdle over the last 20 renewals is Nicky Henderson who has won the race three times with those three winners coming from Beat That (2014), Santini (2018) and Champ (2019). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Sefton Novices Hurdle are Nigel Twiston-Davies (2 wins) and Lucinda Russell (2 wins).
Here are some of the top Sefton Novices Hurdle trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nicky Henderson | 16-3-5 | -3.25 | -5.85 |
| Nigel Twiston-Davies | 16-2-4 | +11.00 | +6.50 |
| Lucinda Russell | 7-2-3 | +77.00 | +54.70 |
| Paul Nicholls | 17-1-5 | -12.50 | -9.74 |
| Alan King | 10-1-1 | -1.00 | -5.00 |
| W P Mullins | 6-1-2 | -1.00 | -1.55 |
| Jonjo O'Neill | 6-1-2 | -4.38 | -4.06 |
| Rebecca Curtis | 5-1-2 | -2.62 | -2.12 |
| Tim Vaughan | 4-1-2 | +30.00 | +15.10 |
| Tom George | 4-1-1 | +0.00 | -1.20 |
Sefton Novices Hurdle Jockey Statistics
There is one jockey who has not had the best of times in the Sefton Novices Hurdle, Sam Twiston-Davies has ridden a total of 10 runners to the race without recording any wins.
Here are some of the top Sefton Novices Hurdle jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nico de Boinville | 6-1-1 | -3.50 | -4.10 |
| Paddy Brennan | 5-1-1 | +12.00 | +5.60 |
| Harry Cobden | 4-1-2 | +0.50 | -0.24 |
| Paul Townend | 3-1-1 | +2.00 | +0.40 |
| A P Heskin | 3-1-1 | +1.00 | -0.20 |
| Derek Fox | 2-1-2 | +65.00 | +49.10 |
| Dougie Costello | 2-1-1 | +8.00 | +4.40 |
| Mark Walsh | 2-1-2 | +1.25 | +1.35 |
| Stephen Mulqueen | 1-1-1 | +16.00 | +9.60 |
| Sam Twiston-Davies | 10-0-0 | -10.00 | -10.00 |
2025 Sefton Novices Hurdle Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 8, 4, 1, 2, 6, 4, 2, 3, 2, 1, 3, PU, 2, 4, 1, 1, 2, 12, PU, 2
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.
- 20 / 20 (78%) - Achieved an RPR of 124+ (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (81%) - Won by at least ¾ (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (82%) - Achieved a TS of 96+ (Season)
- 20 / 20 (83%) - Carried 151 - 163lbs (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (84%) - No bigger than 20/1 (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (84%) - Carried 147 - 165lbs (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (86%) - No bigger than 16/1 (Career Win)
- 20 / 20 (86%) - In a field of 7 - 18 (Debut)
- 20 / 20 (86%) - Had 2 - 5 placings (180 Days)
- 20 / 20 (89%) - Not in WAL (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (89%) - Within the first 13 of the market
- 18 / 20 (64%) - No bigger than 25/1
- 18 / 20 (75%) - No bigger than 16/1 (Career Place)
- 18 / 20 (80%) - No more than -2yrs (Vs Max Age)
- 17 / 20 (85%) - No more than +7lbs (Vs Min Weight)
Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Aintree racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Sefton Novices Hurdle. If there is anything that you do not understand in this blog, please leave a comment or head over to the Horse Racing Terms and Abbreviations article which is available in the OLBG Betting School section.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Sefton Novices Hurdle by adding a tip on the race here.
Sefton Novices Hurdle Trend Analysis
The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +120.88 is when runners had 2 places in the past 90 days. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners last win was 3 starts ago, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-43.
The course which has produced the most winners of the Sefton Novices Hurdle is Cheltenham, there has been a total number of 8 winners of this race who ran at Cheltenham last time out. The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Newbury, there has been a total number of 3 winners of this race who ran at Newbury last time out.
The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 18 winners from a total of 261 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 2 winners from a total of 13 runners.
Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Sefton Novices Hurdle:
- Milan (2 Wins)
- Oscar (2 Wins)
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Sefton Novices Hurdle despite multiple attempts:
- Flemensfirth (0 Wins from 7 runners)
- Accordion (0 Wins from 5 runners)
- Beneficial (0 Wins from 5 runners)
- Presenting (0 Wins from 5 runners)
- Westerner (0 Wins from 5 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Ahoy Senor in 2021, winning for Lucinda Russell at odds of 66/1 under the guidance of Derek Fox. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there have been 4 winning favourites in the race. Ahead of the 2025 Sefton Novices Hurdle why not head over to the best racing tipster page to see what the tipsters are backing today?
Schedule for Thursday at the Aintree Grand National Meeting
The three-day Grand National meeting kicks off on Thursday with four Grade 1 events on the seven-race card which features both the Aintree Hurdle and the Bowl Chase.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 13:45 Aintree Manifesto Novices Chase | Il Etait Temps (FR) 6yo - 3/1 | W P Mullins Paul Townend |
| 14:20 Aintree Anniversary 4YO Juvenile Hurdle | Sir Gino (FR) 4yo - 11/10 | Nicky Henderson Nico de Boinville |
| 14:55 Aintree Bowl Chase | Gerri Colombe (FR) 8yo - 9/4 | Gordon Elliott Jack Kennedy |
| 15:30 Aintree Aintree Hurdle | Impaire Et Passe (FR) 6yo - 1/1 | W P Mullins Paul Townend |
| 16:05 Aintree Foxhunters Chase | Its On The Line (IRE) 7yo - 3/1 | Emmet Mullins Mr Derek O'Connor |
| 16:40 Aintree Red Rum Handicap Chase | Sans Bruit (FR) 6yo - 5/1 | Paul Nicholls Bryony Frost |
| 17:15 Aintree Nickel Coin Mares Bumper | Diva Luna (IRE) 5yo - 13/2 | Ben Pauling Kielan Woods |
Schedule for Friday at the Aintree Grand National Meeting
Day 2 of the Grand National meeting is Ladies Day or Fabulous Friday, the highlights on the track being the Melling Chase plus there is the Topham Chase over the Grand National fences.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 13:45 Aintree Mildmay Novices Chase | Inothewayurthinkin (IRE) 6yo - 6/4 | Gavin Cromwell Mark Walsh |
| 14:20 Aintree William Hill National Festival Handicap Hurdle | Kateira (GB) 7yo - 5/1 | Dan Skelton Harry Skelton |
| 14:55 Aintree Top Novices Hurdle | Mystical Power (IRE) 5yo - 11/10 | W P Mullins Mark Walsh |
| 15:30 Aintree Melling Chase | Jonbon (FR) 8yo - 11/10 | Nicky Henderson Nico de Boinville |
| 16:05 Aintree Topham Chase | Arizona Cardinal (GB) 8yo - 20/1 | Stuart Edmunds Ciaran Gethings |
| 16:40 Aintree Sefton Novices Hurdle | Dancing City (FR) 7yo - 4/1 | W P Mullins Paul Townend |
| 17:15 Aintree Alder Hey Handicap Hurdle | El Jefe (IRE) 7yo - 40/1 | Andrew Hamilton Ben Smith |
Schedule for Saturday at the Aintree Grand National Meeting
The Grand National is obviously the showpiece of the Aintree meeting and day 3 also includes three Grade 1 events, the feature of those being the Liverpool Hurdle.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 13:20 Aintree Bridle Road Handicap Hurdle | Gwennie May Boy (IRE) 6yo - 9/2 | Dan Skelton Charlie Todd |
| 13:55 Aintree Mersey Novices Hurdle | Brighterdaysahead (FR) 5yo - 6/5 | Gordon Elliott Jack Kennedy |
| 14:30 Aintree William Hill National Festival Handicap Chase | Cruz Control (FR) 7yo - 9/1 | Tom Lacey Stan Sheppard |
| 15:05 Aintree Liverpool Hurdle | Strong Leader (GB) 7yo - 8/1 | Olly Murphy Sean Bowen |
| 16:00 Aintree Grand National | I Am Maximus (FR) 8yo - 7/1 | W P Mullins Paul Townend |
| 17:00 Aintree Maghull Novices Chase | Found A Fifty (IRE) 7yo - 11/8 | Gordon Elliott Jack Kennedy |
| 17:35 Aintree Champion Standard Open NH Flat Race | Horaces Pearl (FR) 6yo - 14/1 | Fergal O'Brien Connor Brace |
Article Contributor Information
We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this Sefton Novices Hurdle Preview are at hand, Andy and Darren. They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for National Hunt Racing.
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