You know how punters get lost in too much data or bet blindly? I break down the stats and trends so you can feel confident youâre betting with more than just gut instinct.
2026 Formby Novices' Hurdle Preview
Formally known as the Tolworth Novices Hurdle was run at the Sandown racecourse; however, as of 2023, the race was moved to Aintree and is now run on Boxing Day and is known as the Formby Novices Hurdle. The race is contested over just shy of two miles and one furlong, during which a total of eight hurdles are faced.
The have been some good winners of this race in recent years, future Aintree Hurdle winner L'ami Serge won it in 2015, Yorkhill in 2016, who went on to dual Cheltenham Festival success (Neptune in 2016 & Golden Miller in 2017) and in 2017 Finian's Oscar was successful, who went on to further G1 success over both hurdles and fences.
Formby Novices' Hurdle Information:
- Formby Novices' Hurdle Past Winners
- Formby Novices' Hurdle Trainer Statistics
- Formby Novices' Hurdle Jockey Statistics
If you are looking at Aintree picks then you may be interested in the Grand National tips as this is the course showpiece race of the season, forty runners over the national fences is a favourite among racing fans. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information. Head down to the Other Principal Races at Aintree Racecourse section for links to these.
Best Horse Racing Betting Sites 2026
How competitive is the Formby Novices' Hurdle market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2015 when the race had an over-round of 107%. The race in 2008 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 116%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Formby Novices' Hurdle, the over-round has been 112%, which means the bookie expects to pay out ÂŁ100 for every ÂŁ112 which is bet.
Below you will find the 2026 Formby Novices' Hurdle Trends. See which patterns have occurred over the recent renewals that you may be able to use for the next renewal. We also have a section that looks at the Formby Novices' Hurdle Trend Analysis.
These are the top three quickest-run Formby Novices' Hurdle races over the last 20 renewals:
- Royal Boy (3:58.29) in 2014
- Breedsbreeze (4:01.00) in 2008
- Idaho Sun (4:01.72) in 2025
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? Over the past 20 renewals, if you had followed the winner of the Formby Novices' Hurdle next time out, then you would have backed a total of 7 winners. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since their win at SP next time out would have returned an LSP of +5.29. Ahead of the 2026 Formby Novices' Hurdle, why not head over to the racing predictions for tips on other races today?
Over the last 20 renewals, it was Royal Boy, trained by Nicky Henderson and ridden by A P McCoy, who set the fastest winning time in the Formby Novices' Hurdle. That runner won the race in a time of 3:58.29 in 2014. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer Nicky Henderson and jockey James Bowen with Jango Baie who set the slowest winning time; the race-winning time was 4:27.10 in the 2023 renewal.
What the expert says...
Andy Powell - Horse Racing Betting Expert - OLBG.com
Formby Novices' Hurdle Past Winners
Here are the Formby Novices' Hurdle past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won, along with the age & weight of the horse. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the Formby Novices' Hurdle are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 4:01.72 | Idaho Sun (IRE) 5yo 11-8 3/1 | Bryan Carver Harry Fry (GB) |
| 2024 4:20.93 | Potters Charm (IRE) 5yo 11-8 1/1F | Sam Twiston-Davies Nigel Twiston-Davies (GB) |
| 2023 4:14.10 | Tahmuras (FR) 6yo 11-8 5/2 | Harry Cobden Paul Nicholls (GB) |
| 2023 4:27.10 | Jango Baie (FR) 4yo 11-8 17/2 | James Bowen Nicky Henderson (GB) |
| 2022 4:22.90 | Constitution Hill (GB) 5yo 11-7 2/5F | Nico de Boinville Nicky Henderson (GB) |
| 2021 4:10.30 | Metier (IRE) 5yo 11-7 7/4F | Sean Bowen Harry Fry (GB) |
| 2020 4:07.60 | Fiddlerontheroof (IRE) 6yo 11-7 5/4F | Robbie Power Colin Tizzard (GB) |
| 2019 4:05.90 | Elixir De Nutz (FR) 5yo 11-7 3/1 | Tom O'Brien Colin Tizzard (GB) |
| 2018 4:03.50 | Summerville Boy (IRE) 6yo 11-7 8/1 | Noel Fehily Tom George (GB) |
| 2017 4:07.50 | Finians Oscar (IRE) 5yo 11-7 11/10F | Tom O'Brien Colin Tizzard (GB) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Formby Novices' Hurdle have been based:
- GB: 19 winners with an additional 21 placings from 120 runners
- IRE: 1 winner with an additional 2 placings from 8 runners
- FR: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
2025 Formby Novices' Hurdle Replay
Formby Novices' Hurdle Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the Formby Novices' Hurdle over the last 20 renewals is Nicky Henderson, who has won the race six times, with those six winners coming from Minella Class (2011), Captain Conan (2012), Royal Boy (2014), L'Ami Serge (2015), Constitution Hill (2022) and Jango Baie (2023). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Formby Novices' Hurdle are Paul Nicholls (4 wins) and Harry Fry (2 wins).
Here are some of the top Formby Novices' Hurdle trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nicky Henderson | 12-6-8 | +22.84 | +13.81 |
| Paul Nicholls | 13-4-6 | +1.50 | -0.78 |
| Harry Fry | 4-2-2 | +2.75 | +1.97 |
| Nigel Twiston-Davies | 2-1-1 | +0.00 | -0.37 |
| W P Mullins | 2-1-1 | -0.56 | -0.72 |
| Tom George | 1-1-1 | +8.00 | +5.00 |
| Jeremy Scott | 1-1-1 | +3.50 | +2.19 |
| Dan Skelton | 4-0-1 | -4.00 | -2.42 |
| Ben Pauling | 4-0-1 | -4.00 | -2.62 |
| Gary Moore | 4-0-1 | -4.00 | -2.94 |
Formby Novices' Hurdle Jockey Statistics
Here are some of the top Formby Novices' Hurdle jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Cobden | 4-1-1 | -0.50 | -1.50 |
| Sean Bowen | 4-1-1 | -1.25 | -1.91 |
| Sam Twiston-Davies | 4-1-3 | -2.00 | -0.62 |
| Nico de Boinville | 3-1-1 | -1.60 | -1.75 |
| James Bowen | 2-1-1 | +7.50 | +4.10 |
| Nick Scholfield | 1-1-1 | +3.50 | +2.19 |
| Bryan Carver | 1-1-1 | +3.00 | +1.88 |
| Adam Wedge | 3-0-1 | -3.00 | -0.90 |
| Harry Skelton | 3-0-1 | -3.00 | -1.42 |
| Jack Quinlan | 3-0-1 | -3.00 | -2.25 |
2026 Formby Novices' Hurdle Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 4, 1, 2, 1, 1, (2, 4), 3, 5, 1, 1, 1, 4, 4, 1, 1, 1, 5, F, 1, 2
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones, as you would expect them to do well.
- 20 / 20 (65%) - No bigger than 9/1
- 20 / 20 (70%) - No bigger than 20/1 (Career)
- 20 / 20 (77%) - Within the first 5 of the market
- 20 / 20 (78%) - No bigger than 16/1 (Career Place)
- 20 / 20 (81%) - Achieved an RPR of 120+ (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (82%) - No bigger than 8/1 (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (84%) - Achieved an RPR of 120+ (Season)
- 20 / 20 (84%) - No bigger than 8/1 (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (85%) - Highest Won is not G1/G3/Cl6
- 20 / 20 (85%) - Break of 15 - 236 days (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Placed within last 1 starts
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Break of 15 - 198 days (Last Place)
- 20 / 20 (88%) - No bigger than 16/1 (Career Win)
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Had 1 - 8 wins (Season)
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Off a break of 15 - 198 days
Remember to use the trends listed above, along with the Aintree racing predictions, to see if you can find the winner of the Formby Novices' Hurdle. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles covering numerous topics.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over ÂŁ6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, it is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Formby Novices' Hurdle by adding a tip on the race here.
101 Ways to find Winners in Horse Racing
Formby Novices' Hurdle Trend Analysis
â The trend factor, which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +20.15, is when runners ran in a Class 3 last time out.
â The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had a furthest trip placed of 2m½f, when backing these, the trend shows a record of 0-30.
The course which has produced the most winners of the Formby Novices' Hurdle is Cheltenham; there have been a total of 5 winners of this race who ran at Cheltenham last time out. The next best course, which has produced the second most winners, is Ascot; there have been a total of 4 winners of this race who ran at Ascot last time out.
The race is open to both sexes, with male runners having produced a total of 20 winners from a total of 125 runners, while female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 4 runners.
Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Formby Novices' Hurdle:
- Oscar (2 Wins)
- Presenting (2 Wins)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Captain Conan in 2012, winning for Nicky Henderson at odds of 9/1 under the guidance of Barry Geraghty. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals, there have been 10 winning favourites in the race. Whilst we wait for the 2026 Formby Novices' Hurdle, remember you can get daily racing predictions from the top racing tipsters on the best racing tipsters page.
Route to the Formby Novices' Hurdle
Many trainers target races as preparation for the Formby Novices' Hurdle. These are the races which the recent winners ran in before coming here:
| Info | Last Race |
|---|---|
| 2025 - Idaho Sun Bangor - 1st of 12 (1/14) | Remembering Sally Anne Malam Novices Hurdle |
| 2024 - Potters Charm Cheltenham - 1st of 5 (7/4) | Hyde Novices' Hurdle |
| 2023 - Tahmuras Haydock - 1st of 5 (7/4) | Betfair Weighed In Podcast Newton Novices Hurdle |
| 2023 - Jango Baie Ascot - 1st of 12 (6/5) | GL Events Novices Hurdle |
| 2022 - Constitution Hill Sandown - 1st of 9 (313/100) | Andy Stewart - Sandown Parks Great Friend "National Hunt" Novices Hurdle |
| 2021 - Metier Ascot - 1st of 6 (1/1) | Play The Coral Racing Super Series Introductory Hurdle |
| 2020 - Fiddlerontheroof Sandown - 1st of 13 (8/13) | Peter & Thelma Brooks Diamond Anniversary "National Hunt" Novices Hurdle |
| 2019 - Elixir De Nutz Cheltenham - 1st of 5 (6/5) | British Stallion Studs EBF "National Hunt" Novices Hurdle |
| 2018 - Summerville Boy Cheltenham - 3rd of 8 (9/4) | British Stallion Studs EBF "National Hunt" Novices Hurdle |
| 2017 - Finians Oscar Hereford - 1st of 11 (11/4) | Blackmore Builders Novices Hurdle |
Article Contributor Information
We are fortunate to have an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to the creation and maintenance of this Formby Novices' Hurdle Preview are Andy and Darren. They both work on the Horse racing tips team, looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for National Hunt Racing.
Darren Brett
Expert Guide
Andy Powell
Expert Guide
