Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.
2024 Formby Novices Hurdle Preview
Formally known as the Tolworth Novices Hurdle was run at the Sandown racecourse, however, as of 2023 the race was moved to Aintree and is now run on Boxing Day and is known as the Formby Novices Hurdle, the race is contested over just shy of two miles during which a total of eight hurdles are faced.
The have been some good winners of this race in recent years, future Aintree Hurdle winner L'ami Serge won it in 2015, Yorkhill in 2016 who went on to dual Cheltenham Festival success (Neptune in 2016 & Golden Miller in 2017) and in 2017 Finian's Oscar was successful who went on to further G1 success over both hurdles and fences.
Formby Novices Hurdle Information:
- Formby Novices Hurdle Past Winners
- Formby Novices Hurdle Trainer Statistics
- Formby Novices Hurdle Jockey Statistics
Our dedicated Aintree tips page will not only bring you predictions from the OLBG racing tipsters for the upcoming card that includes the Formby Novices Hurdle but will also have predictions for each meeting at Aintree throughout the season so be sure to head over there. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Other Principal Races at Aintree Racecourse section for links to these.
How competitive is the Formby Novices Hurdle market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2015 when the race had an over-round of 107%. The race in 2008 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 116%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Formby Novices Hurdle, the over-round has been 112%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £112 which is bet.
Formby Novices Hurdle Trends:
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Formby Novices Hurdle next time out then you would have backed a total of 7 winners. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of +9.76. Ahead of the 2024 Formby Novices Hurdle why not head over to the racing predictions for tips on other races today?
Over the last 20 renewals, it was the Paul Nicholls trained Thisthatandtother ridden by Timmy Murphy who set the fastest winning time in the Formby Novices Hurdle, the runner won the race in a time of 3:51.10 was set when winning the race in 2003. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer Nicky Henderson and jockey James Bowen with Jango Baie who set the slowest winning time, the race-winning time was 4:27.10 in the 2023 renewal.
These are the top three quickest-run Formby Novices Hurdle over the last 20 renewals:
- Thisthatandtother (3:51.10) in 2003
- Royal Boy (3:58.29) in 2014
- Breedsbreeze (4:01.00) in 2008
Formby Novices Hurdle Past Winners
Here are the Formby Novices Hurdle past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Formby Novices Hurdle as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 4:14.10 | Tahmuras (FR) 6yo 11-8 5/2 | Harry Cobden Paul Nicholls (GB) |
| 2023 4:27.10 | Jango Baie (FR) 4yo 11-8 17/2 | James Bowen Nicky Henderson (GB) |
| 2022 4:22.90 | Constitution Hill (GB) 5yo 11-7 2/5F | Nico de Boinville Nicky Henderson (GB) |
| 2021 4:10.30 | Metier (IRE) 5yo 11-7 7/4F | Sean Bowen Harry Fry (GB) |
| 2020 4:07.60 | Fiddlerontheroof (IRE) 6yo 11-7 5/4F | Robbie Power Colin Tizzard (GB) |
| 2019 4:05.90 | Elixir De Nutz (FR) 5yo 11-7 3/1 | Tom O'Brien Colin Tizzard (GB) |
| 2018 4:03.50 | Summerville Boy (IRE) 6yo 11-7 8/1 | Noel Fehily Tom George (GB) |
| 2017 4:07.50 | Finians Oscar (IRE) 5yo 11-7 11/10F | Tom O'Brien Colin Tizzard (GB) |
| 2016 4:11.40 | Yorkhill (IRE) 6yo 11-7 4/9F | R Walsh W P Mullins (IRE) |
| 2015 4:16.00 | LAmi Serge (IRE) 5yo 11-7 4/9F | Barry Geraghty Nicky Henderson (GB) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Formby Novices Hurdle have been based:
- GB: 19 winners with an additional 21 placings from 120 runners
- IRE: 1 winner with an additional 2 placings from 7 runners
- FR: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
Formby Novices Hurdle Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the Formby Novices Hurdle over the last 20 renewals is Nicky Henderson who has won the race six times with those six winners coming from Minella Class (2011), Captain Conan (2012), Royal Boy (2014), LAmi Serge (2015), Constitution Hill (2022) and Jango Baie (2023). The only other trainer to have recorded multiple wins in the Formby Novices Hurdle is Paul Nicholls (5 wins).
Here are some of the top Formby Novices Hurdle trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nicky Henderson | 13-6-8 | +21.84 | +12.81 |
| Paul Nicholls | 15-5-8 | +3.25 | +2.19 |
| Harry Fry | 3-1-1 | -0.25 | +0.09 |
| W P Mullins | 2-1-1 | -0.56 | -0.72 |
| Tom George | 1-1-1 | +8.00 | +5.00 |
| Jeremy Scott | 1-1-1 | +3.50 | +2.19 |
| Jonjo O'Neill | 1-1-1 | +1.25 | +0.78 |
| Gary Moore | 4-0-1 | -4.00 | -2.94 |
| Emma Lavelle | 4-0-0 | -4.00 | -4.00 |
| Fergal O'Brien | 4-0-0 | -4.00 | -4.00 |
Formby Novices Hurdle Jockey Statistics
Here are some of the top Formby Novices Hurdle jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Cobden | 4-1-1 | -0.50 | -1.50 |
| Sean Bowen | 3-1-1 | -0.25 | -0.91 |
| Nico de Boinville | 3-1-1 | -1.60 | -1.75 |
| Robbie Power | 2-1-1 | +0.25 | -0.22 |
| James Bowen | 1-1-1 | +8.50 | +5.10 |
| Nick Scholfield | 1-1-1 | +3.50 | +2.19 |
| Aidan Coleman | 4-0-0 | -4.00 | -4.00 |
| Paddy Brennan | 4-0-0 | -4.00 | -4.00 |
| Sam Twiston-Davies | 3-0-2 | -3.00 | -1.25 |
| Jamie Moore | 3-0-1 | -3.00 | -1.94 |
2024 Formby Novices Hurdle Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 2, 1, 4, 1, 2, 1, 1, (2, 4), 3, 5, 1, 1, 1, 4, 4, 1, 1, 1, 5, F
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.
- 20 / 20 (64%) - No bigger than 9/1
- 20 / 20 (68%) - No bigger than 20/1 (Career)
- 20 / 20 (75%) - No bigger than 16/1 (Career Place)
- 20 / 20 (77%) - Achieved an RPR of 120+ (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (77%) - Within the first 5 of the market
- 20 / 20 (80%) - No bigger than 8/1 (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (80%) - Achieved an RPR of 120+ (Season)
- 20 / 20 (84%) - No bigger than 16/1 (Career Win)
- 20 / 20 (84%) - Highest Won is not G1/Cl6
- 20 / 20 (84%) - Break of 15 - 236 days (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (85%) - Had 1 - 8 wins (Season)
- 20 / 20 (87%) - Placed within last 1 starts
- 20 / 20 (87%) - Achieved an RPR of 105+ (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Highest Placed is not G3/Cl5-6
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Carried 146 - 166lbs (Last Win)
Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Aintree racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Formby Novices Hurdle. if you are unaware of what trends and statistics are, how they can be used etc then head over to the OLBG Betting School and read this Stats And Trends article which will make everything much clearer.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Formby Novices Hurdle by adding a tip on the race here.
Formby Novices Hurdle Trend Analysis
The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +12.54 is when runners had 1 career win on the going. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 0 season wins, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-19.
The course which has produced the most winners of the Formby Novices Hurdle is Ascot, there has been a total number of 5 winners of this race who ran at Ascot last time out. The next best courses which have produced the second most winners are Sandown and Cheltenham, there has been a total number of 4 winners from each of those courses.
The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 20 winners from a total of 122 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 6 runners.
Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Formby Novices Hurdle:
- Oscar (2 Wins)
- Presenting (2 Wins)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Captain Conan in 2012, winning for Nicky Henderson at odds of 9/1 under the guidance of Barry Geraghty. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there have been 10 winning favourites in the race. Whilst we wait for the 2024 Formby Novices Hurdle remember you can get daily racing predictions from the top racing tipsters on the best racing tipsters page.
Other Principal races at Aintree Racecourse
Here are some other notable races at the Aintree racecourse throughout the racing season that you may be interested in.
Races in April (Grand National Meeting)
- Aintree Hurdle
- Anniversary 4YO Juvenile Hurdle
- Bowl Chase
- Foxhunters Chase
- Manifesto Novices Chase
- Nickel Coin Mares Bumper
- Red Rum Handicap Chase
- Abersoch Land and Sea Handicap Hurdle
- Marsh Chase
- Mildmay Novices Chase
- Sefton Novices Hurdle
- Top Novices Hurdle
- Topham Chase
- William Hill National Festival Handicap Hurdle
- Champion Standard Open NH Flat Race
- Grand National
- Liverpool Hurdle
- Maghull Novices Chase
- Mersey Novices Hurdle
- Village Hotels Handicap Hurdle
- William Hill National Festival Handicap Chase
Races in October
Races in November
Races in December
Article Contributor Information
We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this Formby Novices Hurdle Preview, Tips, Runners and Trends are at hand, Darren and James. They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for National Hunt Racing.
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