2023 John Smiths Cup Preview, Trends & Analysis

We look at the Class 2 John Smiths Cup ahead of the next renewal, a race contested over 1m2½f at York to see which runners, trainers and jockeys have previously won the race and which trends can you use to find the winner of the John Smiths Cup.

2023 John Smiths Cup Preview, Trends & Analysis
John Smiths Cup Preview, Trends & Analysis

2023 John Smiths Cup Preview

Previously known as the Magnet Cup, the John Smiths Cup was established in 1960, the Class 2 handicap is run at York in July of each year. The race is open to runners who are aged three years old or older and is run over one mile and two furlongs, the race holds the record for longest-running commercial sponsorship in British racing having been sponsored by John Smiths Brewery since the race was first created in 1960.

John Smiths Cup Content:

To see which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are tipping throughout the card that includes this race, head over to the York Betting Picks on the day of the race, do they agree with the runners on the trend shortlist or are they predicting other runners?

The runner that holds the record over the past 20 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2008 renewal when Flying Clarets from Richard Fahey who under the guidance of Frederik Tylicki, won in a time of 2:17.61, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Charlie Tokyo, trained by Richard Fahey and ridden by Jamie Moriarty set the quickest time of 1:56.61 in the 2007 renewal.

These are the top three quickest-run John Smiths Cup over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2007 - Charlie Tokyo (1:56.61)
  • 2003 - Far Lane (2:06.57)
  • 2009 - Sirvino (2:07.18)

How competitive is the John Smiths Cup market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2012 when the race had an over-round of 119%. The race in 2019 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 139%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the John Smiths Cup, the over-round has been 130%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £130 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the John Smiths Cup next time out then you would have back a total of 4 winners. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -7.81. Before placing your bet on the 2023 John Smiths Cup see which other runners today are being back on the racing predictions page.

John Smiths Cup Past Winners

Here are the John Smiths Cup past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and also the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the John Smiths Cup as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse (Drawn) Info
2022
2:08.37
Anmaat (IRE)
4yo 9-8 (10 of 22) 5/1F
Kevin Stott
Owen Burrows (GB)
2021
2:11.82
Johnny Drama (IRE)
6yo 8-13 (1 of 20) 22/1
Joshua Bryan
Andrew Balding (GB)
2020
2:09.48
Sinjaari (IRE)
4yo 8-11 (7 of 22) 11/1
Stevie Donohoe
William Haggas (GB)
2019
2:10.38
Pivoine (IRE)
5yo 9-8 (6 of 21) 14/1
Rob Hornby
Andrew Balding (GB)
2018
2:09.50
Euchen Glen (GB)
5yo 9-3 (3 of 19) 20/1
Alistair Rawlinson
Jim Goldie (GB)
2017
2:10.16
Ballet Concerto (GB)
4yo 9-3 (11 of 20) 8/1
James Doyle
Sir Michael Stoute (GB)
2016
2:07.34
Educate (GB)
7yo 9-8 (14 of 19) 18/1
Thomas Brown
Ismail Mohammed (GB)
2015
2:08.28
Master Carpenter (IRE)
4yo 9-4 (1 of 17) 14/1
Phillip Makin
Rod Millman (GB)
2014
2:07.96
Farraaj (IRE)
5yo 9-11 (22 of 16) 6/1
Andrea Atzeni
Roger Varian (GB)
2013
2:07.79
Danchai (GB)
4yo 8-11 (16 of 19) 10/1
Andrea Atzeni
William Haggas (GB)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the John Smiths Cup have been based:

  • GB: 19 winners with an additional 60 placings from 380 runners
  • IRE: 1 winner with an additional 0 placings from 3 runners

John Smiths Cup Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the John Smiths Cup over the last 20 renewals is William Haggas who has won the race 3 times. Those 3 winners came from Green Destiny (2011), Danchai (2013) & Sinjaari (2020). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the John Smiths Cup are Richard Fahey (2 wins) & Andrew Balding (2 wins). There are multiple trainers who have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the John Smiths Cup, Mark Johnston (0-20), Saeed bin Suroor (0-17), David O'Meara (0-15) & Brian Ellison (0-13) have all failed to produce a single winner despite sending multiple runners to the race.

Here are some of the top John Smiths Cup trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
William Haggas 17-3-4 +13.00 +4.13
Richard Fahey 37-2-8 -12.00 -3.05
Andrew Balding 14-2-4 +24.00 +15.25
Sir Michael Stoute 14-1-6 -5.00 -2.43
Jim Goldie 11-1-2 +10.00 +9.25
Roger Varian 10-1-3 -3.00 -2.69
David Barron 7-1-3 +10.00 +9.75
Ismail Mohammed 4-1-2 +15.00 +11.25
Peter Chapple-Hyam 3-1-1 +31.00 +18.63
Rod Millman 3-1-1 +12.00 +6.75

John Smiths Cup Jockey Statistics

The leading jockey in the John Smiths Cup over the last 20 renewals is Andrea Atzeni who has won the race 2 times. Those 2 winners came from Danchai (2013) & Farraaj (2014). There are two jockeys who have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the John Smiths Cup, Tony Hamilton has had a total of 11 rides to the race without recording any wins whilst Paul Mulrennan has had 11 rides without a winner.

Here are some of the top John Smiths Cup jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Andrea Atzeni 7-2-3 +11.00 +6.31
Stevie Donohoe 4-1-2 +8.00 +6.88
Kevin Stott 4-1-2 +2.00 +1.51
Robert Havlin 3-1-1 +31.00 +18.63
James Doyle 3-1-2 +6.00 +5.00
Adam Kirby 3-1-2 +4.00 +3.13
Alistair Rawlinson 2-1-1 +19.00 +11.50
Rob Hornby 2-1-1 +13.00 +7.75
Joshua Bryan 1-1-1 +22.00 +13.75
Adam Beschizza 1-1-1 +6.00 +3.75

2023 John Smiths Cup Trends

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,13,2,1,(1,7),(4,14),11,(2,16),6,15,15,(14,2),3,5,(9,16),7,14,2,(9,11),(12,PU),(1,22)

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (74%) - Achieved a TS of 79+ (Last 3)
  • 20 / 20 (77%) - No more than 6 runs over trip
  • 20 / 20 (80%) - Carried 121-135lbs (Last Win)
  • 20 / 20 (82%) - Achieved a TS of 83+ (Hcps)
  • 20 / 20 (84%) - Achieved a RPR of 96+ (Last 3)
  • 20 / 20 (84%) - Fewer than 26 starts (Hcps)
  • 20 / 20 (85%) - Fewer than 6 starts (Season)
  • 20 / 20 (86%) - Made 3-12 starts (1 Year)
  • 20 / 20 (87%) - Achieved a TS of 83+ (Career)
  • 20 / 20 (88%) - Made 5-37 starts (Career)
  • 20 / 20 (88%) - Held an OR of 91+
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - Not off the lowest OR
  • 20 / 20 (90%) - No more than 6 career wins
  • 20 / 20 (90%) - 3+ Career placings on turf
  • 19 / 20 (73%) - Carried 122-134lbs (LTO)
  • 19 / 20 (83%) - No bigger than 20/1 (LTO)
  • 19 / 20 (89%) - Avoid USA bred runners
  • 18 / 20 (61%) - No bigger than 20/1
  • 18 / 20 (72%) - No older than average race age
  • 18 / 20 (74%) - No older than a 5yo
  • 18 / 20 (80%) - Never won further than 1m3½ff

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the York racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the John Smiths Cup. Maybe you are looking to back something in this race on the tote, but you are not sure of the process or how the tote works? No problem! We have an article which is dedicated to The Tote for you to read which explains everything you need to know! Be sure to check out the other articles too in the OLBG Betting School.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not! With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the John Smiths Cup by adding a tip on the race here.

John Smiths Cup Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +24.00 is when runners had a IRE bred dam. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners ran on Soft ground when last winning, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-41.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2022: Winner in 10 (3,8,2) [22 Runners]
  • 2021: Winner in 1 (3,10,19) [20 Runners]
  • 2020: Winner in 7 (18,17,2) [22 Runners]
  • 2019: Winner in 6 (23,1,5) [21 Runners]
  • 2018: Winner in 3 (5,8,2) [19 Runners]

The course which has produced the most winners of the John Smiths Cup is Ascot, there has been a total number of 5 winners of this race who ran at Ascot last time out.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 19 winners from a total of 369 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 1 winner from a total of 14 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the John Smiths Cup:

  • Authorized (2 Wins)
  • Lear Fan (2 Wins)

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the John Smiths Cup despite multiple attempts:

  • Cape Cross (0 Wins from 13 runners)
  • Danehill Dancer (0 Wins from 8 runners)
  • Arcano (0 Wins from 6 runners)
  • Galileo (0 Wins from 6 runners)
  • Pivotal (0 Wins from 6 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest priced winner was Kings Warrior in 2012 when winning for Peter Chapple-Hyam at odds of 33/1 under the guidance of Robert Havlin. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 3 winning favourites in the race. Remember to bookmark the best racing tipsters page so you can get easy access to the best OLBG racing tipsters.

No Comments

There are no comments here. Be the first to comment...

Please login or register to reply to this blog

By using this site you confirm you are 18+ and consent to our use of cookies and processing of personal data as set out in our Privacy Policy
Got it!

We detected you are connecting from United States. We have a different section in our site for users from your country.

You are not logged in.
__user_name_placeholder__ avatar Hi, username! Logout