You know how punters get lost in too much data or bet blindly? I break down the stats and trends so you can feel confident you’re betting with more than just gut instinct.
2027 Winter Derby Preview
The Winter Derby was established back in 1998 when Philip Mitchell's Running Stag was successful under the guidance of Ray Cochrane.
In 1999, the race, which is run over ten furlongs at Lingfield racecourse, was given a Listed status and then in 2006 was upgraded to a Grade 3.
In 2024, the Winter Derby was moved by the BHA to the Southwell Racecourse as part of a two-year trial but returned to Lingfield in 2026.
This is the first group race of the year in Britain and is only one of four group races that are not run on the turf in Britain.
Winter Derby Information:
We also have a dedicated Lingfield tips page that will cover this race as well as all of the other races on the day of the race. See which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are predicting to win this race and the others on the cards.
Best Horse Racing Betting Sites 2026
How competitive is the Winter Derby market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2021, when the race had an over-round of 108%. The race in 2012 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 127%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Winter Derby, the over-round has been 118%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £118 which is bet.
Below you will find the 2027 Winter Derby Trends. See which patterns have occurred over the recent renewals that you may be able to use for the next renewal. We also have a section that looks at the Winter Derby Trend Analysis.
These are the top three quickest-run Winter Derby races over the last 20 renewals:
- Alenquer (2:00.51) in 2022
- Farraaj (2:00.99) in 2013
- Grendisar (2:01.05) in 2016
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? Over the past 20 renewals, if you had followed the winner of the Winter Derby next time out, then you would have backed a total of 5 winners. Backing all 18 runners who have been out since their win at SP next time out would have returned an LSP of -4.53. Remember to bookmark the racing tips page to access the OLBG racing picks easily daily.
When looking over the past 20 renewals, a time of 2:00.51 was set by Alenquer in 2022, trained by William Haggas and ridden by Cieren Fallon, which is the quickest time over that period. The slowest winning time was set in 2024 when Military Order won in a time of 2:24.15 for trainer Charlie Appleby, who booked Daniel Tudhope in the saddle.
Winter Derby Past Winners
Here are the Winter Derby past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse that won, and the horse's age & weight. Also detailed is the stall from which the horse came and the total number of runners in the race. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the Winter Derby are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 2:04.15 | Sky Safari (GB) 5yo 8-13 (5 of 5) 6/1 | Daniel Muscutt James Fanshawe (GB) |
| 2025 2:23.14 | Royal Champion (IRE) 7yo 9-3 (7 of 7) 6/4F | Clifford Lee K R Burke (GB) |
| 2024 2:24.15 | Military Order (IRE) 4yo 9-2 (1 of 6) 9/4 | Daniel Tudhope Charlie Appleby (GB) |
| 2023 2:02.32 | Lord North (IRE) 7yo 9-2 (3 of 8) 8/11F | Robert Havlin John & Thady Gosden (GB) |
| 2022 2:00.51 | Alenquer (FR) 4yo 9-0 (7 of 7) 11/4 | Cieren Fallon William Haggas (GB) |
| 2021 2:04.92 | Forest Of Dean (GB) 5yo 9-0 (1 of 5) 100/30 | Robert Havlin John Gosden (GB) |
| 2020 2:01.64 | Dubai Warrior (GB) 4yo 9-0 (3 of 7) 13/8 | Frankie Dettori John Gosden (GB) |
| 2019 2:01.28 | Wissahickon (USA) 4yo 9-0 (3 of 7) 1/4F | Frankie Dettori John Gosden (GB) |
| 2018 2:02.73 | Master The World (IRE) 7yo 9-0 (9 of 10) 16/1 | Sean Levey David Elsworth (GB) |
| 2017 2:04.68 | Convey (GB) 5yo 9-0 (10 of 9) 11/2 | Andrea Atzeni Sir Michael Stoute (GB) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Winter Derby have been based:
- GB: 20 winners with an additional 32 placings from 182 runners
- IRE: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 5 runners
- FR: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 2 runners
- AUS: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
Winter Derby Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the Winter Derby over the last 20 renewals is John Gosden, who has won the race three times, with those three winners coming from Wissahickon (2019), Dubai Warrior (2020) and Forest Of Dean (2021). The only other trainer to have recorded multiple wins in the Winter Derby is Charlie Appleby (2 wins).
Here are some of the top Winter Derby trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Gosden | 11-3-8 | -2.79 | +3.46 |
| Charlie Appleby | 3-2-2 | +4.25 | +2.21 |
| John & Thady Gosden | 10-1-5 | -8.27 | -5.98 |
| Chris Wall | 5-1-2 | +1.00 | -0.30 |
| Marco Botti | 5-1-3 | -1.25 | -0.18 |
| Roger Varian | 5-1-2 | -2.50 | -2.15 |
| K R Burke | 5-1-1 | -2.50 | -3.06 |
| David Elsworth | 4-1-1 | +13.00 | +6.60 |
| Sir Michael Stoute | 4-1-2 | +2.50 | +3.00 |
| William Haggas | 3-1-1 | +0.75 | -0.28 |
Winter Derby Jockey Statistics
There are multiple leading jockeys in the Winter Derby over the last 20 renewals, with Adam Kirby, Robert Havlin, and Andrea Atzeni having all won the race two times. Adam Kirby's winners have been with Tryster (2015) and Grendisar (2016). Robert Havlin winners have been with Forest Of Dean (2021) and Lord North (2023). Andrea Atzeni's winners have been with Farraaj (2013) and Convey (2017).
Here are some of the top Winter Derby jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Kirby | 11-2-4 | -3.25 | -0.85 |
| Robert Havlin | 8-2-7 | -1.94 | +0.40 |
| Andrea Atzeni | 5-2-2 | +4.00 | +1.20 |
| Luke Morris | 7-1-1 | +4.00 | +0.00 |
| Tom Queally | 5-1-1 | -2.62 | -3.17 |
| Sean Levey | 4-1-1 | +13.00 | +6.60 |
| Paul Mulrennan | 3-1-1 | +2.00 | +0.40 |
| Daniel Tudhope | 2-1-1 | +1.25 | +0.41 |
| Daniel Muscutt | 1-1-1 | +6.00 | +3.75 |
| Cieren Fallon | 1-1-1 | +2.75 | +1.72 |
2027 Winter Derby Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): (1, 5), 2, 2, 1, 1, (2, 10), 1, 8, 1, 4, 6, 10, 1, 3, 3, 2, 1, 2, (1, 2), 2
The percentage shown is the proportion of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones, as you would expect them to do well.
- 20 / 20 (55%) - Achieved an RPR of 107+ (Last 3)
- 20 / 20 (61%) - No bigger than 16/1
- 20 / 20 (63%) - Held an OR of 102+
- 20 / 20 (75%) - Won within last 5 starts
- 20 / 20 (75%) - Not in a G3/Cl3-6 (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (79%) - Achieved a TS of 54+ (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (79%) - Carried 126 - 133lbs (Debut)
- 20 / 20 (80%) - Within the first 8 of the market
- 20 / 20 (81%) - Achieved an RPR of 93+ (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (82%) - Ran in England (Debut)
- 20 / 20 (83%) - Fewer than 4 races (90 Days)
- 20 / 20 (85%) - Ran in 2 - 12 races (1 Year)
- 20 / 20 (86%) - Achieved a TS of 63+ (Last 3)
- 20 / 20 (87%) - Placed within last 4 starts
- 20 / 20 (87%) - No bigger than 10/1 (Last Win)
Remember to use the trends listed above, along with the Lingfield racing predictions, to see if you can find the winner of the Winter Derby. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles covering numerous topics.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, it is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Winter Derby by adding a tip on the race here.
101 Ways to find Winners in Horse Racing
Winter Derby Trend Analysis
✅ The trend factor, which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +20.01, is when runners ran in a Class 1 (Listed) when last winning.
❌ The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners ran in a Class 3 when last winning, when backing these, the trend shows a record of 0-27.
Here are the most recent winning draws, along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2026: Winner in 5 (3) [5 Runners]
- 2025: Winner in 7 (5) [7 Runners]
- 2024: Winner in 1 (4) [6 Runners]
- 2023: Winner in 3 (2,7) [8 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 7 (5) [7 Runners]
The course which has produced the most winners of the Winter Derby is Lingfield (AW); there have been a total of 10 winners of this race who ran at Lingfield (AW) last time out. The next best course, which has produced the second most winners, is Kempton (AW); there have been a total of 4 winners of this race who ran at Kempton (AW) last time out.
The race is open to both sexes, with male runners having produced a total of 19 winners from a total of 175 runners, while female runners have produced 1 winner from a total of 15 runners.
Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Winter Derby:
- Dansili (2 Wins)
- Shamardal (2 Wins)
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Winter Derby despite multiple attempts:
- Bertolini (0 Wins from 5 runners)
- Cape Cross (0 Wins from 5 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Master The World in 2018, winning for David Elsworth at odds of 16/1 under the guidance of Sean Levey. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals, there have been 8 winning favourites in the race. Ahead of the 2027 Winter Derby, why not head over to the best racing tipster page to see what the tipsters are backing today? If you are interested in other races at the Lingfield racecourse, then why not read our blog for the Quebec Stakes?
Route to the Winter Derby
Many trainers target races as preparation for the Winter Derby. These are the races which the recent winners ran in before coming here:
| Info | Last Race |
|---|---|
| 2026 - Sky Safari Lingfield (AW) - 2nd of 10 (11/2) | BetMGM Winter Oaks Fillies Handicap |
| 2025 - Royal Champion Lingfield (AW) - 1st of 6 (5/6) | Quebec Stakes |
| 2024 - Military Order Southwell (AW) - 2nd of 6 (11/8) | BetUK Winter Derby Trial Conditions Stakes |
| 2023 - Lord North Sandown - 4th of 6 (33/1) | Coral-Eclipse |
| 2022 - Alenquer Longchamp - 9th of 14 (23/1) | Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe |
| 2021 - Forest Of Dean Lingfield (AW) - 3rd of 5 (5/1) | Betway Winter Derby Trial Stakes |
| 2020 - Dubai Warrior Lingfield (AW) - 1st of 5 (8/11) | Quebec Stakes |
| 2019 - Wissahickon Lingfield (AW) - 1st of 8 (8/15) | Betway Winter Derby Trial Stakes |
| 2018 - Master The World Lingfield (AW) - 7th of 8 (9/4) | Quebec Stakes |
| 2017 - Convey Redcar - 5th of 6 (4/1) | Guisborough Stakes |
Article Contributor Information
We are fortunate to have an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to the creation and maintenance of this Winter Derby Preview are Andy and James. They both work on the Horse Racing Tips team, overseeing the tipsters and managing the tip settlement, while also creating and managing all the horse racing event previews for Flat racing.
James Banting
Expert Guide
Andy Powell
Expert Guide
