Winter Derby Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends

Updated: 1691 Horse Racing

We look at the Winter Derby ahead of the next renewal, a race contested over 1m2f at Lingfield to see which runners, trainers and jockeys have previously won the race and which trends can you use to find the winner of the Winter Derby.

Winter Derby Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends
In this article: Preview
Andy Powell Content Editor

Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.

2025 Winter Derby Preview

The Winter Derby was established back in 1998 when Philip Mitchell's Running Stag was successful under the guidance of Ray Cochrane. In 1999 the race which is run over ten furlongs at Lingfield racecourse was given a Listed status and then in 2006 was upgraded to a Grade 3.

As of 2024, the Winter Derby was moved by the BHA to be run at the Southwell Racecourse.

This is the first group race of the year in Britain and is only one of four group races that are not run on the flat in Britain. The race is open to runners aged four years old or older, fillies and mares get a 3lb allowance. Penalties in the race are G1 winners 7lb, G2 winners 5lb and G3 winners 3lb.

Winter Derby Information:

We also have a dedicated Southwell tips page that will cover this race as well as all of the other races on the day of the race, see which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are predicting to win this race and the others on the cards.

How competitive is the Winter Derby market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2021 when the race had an over-round of 108%. The race in 2012 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 127%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Winter Derby, the over-round has been 119%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £119 which is bet.

Winter Derby Trends:

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Winter Derby next time out then you would have backed a total of 5 winners. Backing all 18 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -4.53. Before placing your bet on the 2025 Winter Derby see which other runners today are being backed on the racing predictions page.

Over the last 20 renewals, it was the William Haggas trained Alenquer ridden by Cieren Fallon who set the fastest winning time in the Winter Derby, the runner won the race in a time of 2:00.51 was set when winning the race in 2022. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer Charlie Appleby and jockey Daniel Tudhope with Military Order who set the slowest winning time, the race-winning time was 2:24.15 in the 2024 renewal.

These are the top three quickest-run Winter Derby over the last 20 renewals:

  1. Alenquer (2:00.51) in 2022
  2. Farraaj (2:00.99) in 2013
  3. Grendisar (2:01.05) in 2016
What the expert says...
It's hard to know how the trends are going to transfer to Southwell as the Winter Derby was moved away from Lingfield in 2024. The top trend is runners achieving an RPR (Racing Post Rating) of 107 or more within their last three starts, all twenty winners achieved this and those who didn't are 0-95, it's a trend that would have ruled out 46% of the runners.

Andy Powell - Horse Racing Betting Expert - OLBG.com

Winter Derby Past Winners

Here are the Winter Derby past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Winter Derby as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

YearHorse (Drawn)Info
2024
2:24.15
Military Order (IRE)
4yo 9-2 (1 of 6) 9/4
Daniel Tudhope
Charlie Appleby (GB)
2023
2:02.32
Lord North (IRE)
7yo 9-2 (3 of 8) 8/11F
Robert Havlin
John & Thady Gosden (GB)
2022
2:00.51
Alenquer (FR)
4yo 9-0 (7 of 7) 11/4
Cieren Fallon
William Haggas (GB)
2021
2:04.92
Forest Of Dean (GB)
5yo 9-0 (1 of 5) 100/30
Robert Havlin
John Gosden (GB)
2020
2:01.64
Dubai Warrior (GB)
4yo 9-0 (3 of 7) 13/8
Frankie Dettori
John Gosden (GB)
2019
2:01.28
Wissahickon (USA)
4yo 9-0 (3 of 7) 1/4F
Frankie Dettori
John Gosden (GB)
2018
2:02.73
Master The World (IRE)
7yo 9-0 (9 of 10) 16/1
Sean Levey
David Elsworth (GB)
2017
2:04.68
Convey (GB)
5yo 9-0 (10 of 9) 11/2
Andrea Atzeni
Sir Michael Stoute (GB)
2016
2:01.05
Grendisar (IRE)
6yo 9-0 (7 of 8) 11/4
Adam Kirby
Marco Botti (GB)
2015
2:01.71
Tryster (IRE)
4yo 9-0 (4 of 11) 3/1F
Adam Kirby
Charlie Appleby (GB)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Winter Derby have been based:

  • GB: 20 winners with an additional 34 placings from 195 runners
  • IRE: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 5 runners
  • FR: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 3 runners
  • GER: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
  • AUS: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
  • ITY: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner

Winter Derby Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the Winter Derby over the last 20 renewals is John Gosden who has won the race three times with those three winners coming from Wissahickon (2019), Dubai Warrior (2020) and Forest Of Dean (2021). The only other trainer to have recorded multiple wins in the Winter Derby is Charlie Appleby (2 wins).

Here are some of the top Winter Derby trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

TrainerR-W-PWinEW
John Gosden11-3-8-2.79+3.46
Charlie Appleby3-2-2+4.25+2.21
Chris Wall8-1-2-2.00-3.30
John & Thady Gosden7-1-3-5.27-4.25
Marco Botti5-1-3-1.25-0.18
Roger Varian5-1-2-2.50-2.15
David Elsworth4-1-1+13.00+6.60
Sir Michael Stoute4-1-2+2.50+3.00
William Haggas3-1-1+0.75-0.28
Ed Vaughan2-1-2+9.00+6.70

Winter Derby Jockey Statistics

There are multiple leading jockeys in the Winter Derby over the last 20 renewals with Adam Kirby, Robert Havlin, Andrea Atzeni and Frankie Dettori having all won the race two times. Adam Kirby's winners have been with Tryster (2015) and Grendisar (2016). Robert Havlin winners have been with Forest Of Dean (2021) and Lord North (2023). Andrea Atzeni's winners have been with Farraaj (2013) and Convey (2017). Frankie Dettori winners have been with Wissahickon (2019) and Dubai Warrior (2020).

Here are some of the top Winter Derby jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

JockeyR-W-PWinEW
Adam Kirby11-2-4-3.25-0.85
Robert Havlin6-2-5+0.06+1.13
Andrea Atzeni5-2-2+4.00+1.20
Frankie Dettori4-2-2-0.12-0.82
Jamie Spencer10-1-4-1.00-1.15
Luke Morris7-1-1+4.00+0.00
Tom Queally6-1-2-3.62+2.93
J F Egan4-1-1+0.50-0.90
Sean Levey3-1-1+14.00+7.60
Paul Mulrennan3-1-1+2.00+0.40

Winter Derby Trend Analysis

The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +14.51 is when runners ran in a Class 1 (Listed) when last winning. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners ran in a Class 3 when last winning, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-34.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2024: Winner in 1 (4) [6 Runners]
  • 2023: Winner in 3 (2,7) [8 Runners]
  • 2022: Winner in 7 (5) [7 Runners]
  • 2021: Winner in 1 (2) [5 Runners]
  • 2020: Winner in 3 (6) [7 Runners]

The course which has produced the most winners of the Winter Derby is Lingfield (AW), there has been a total number of 10 winners of this race who ran at Lingfield (AW) last time out. The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Kempton (AW), there has been a total number of 4 winners of this race who ran at Kempton (AW) last time out.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 20 winners from a total of 193 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 13 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Winter Derby, that stallion Dansili has produced 2 winners (2020,2017).

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Winter Derby despite multiple attempts:

  • Bertolini (0 Wins from 5 runners)
  • Cape Cross (0 Wins from 5 runners)
  • Grand Lodge (0 Wins from 5 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Master The World in 2018, winning for David Elsworth at odds of 16/1 under the guidance of Sean Levey. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there have been 7 winning favourites in the race. Ahead of the 2025 Winter Derby why not head over to the best racing tipster page to see what the tipsters are backing today?

Article Contributor Information

We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this Winter Derby Preview are at hand, Andy and Darren. They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for Flat Racing.

James Banting

James Banting

Tipster competition assistant

James Banting, a passionate horse racing enthusiast and aficionado, brings a wealth of experience to OLBG, having attended numerous race meetings over the years. His background working with the Jockey Club provides him with a unique insider's perspective on the industry.
Andy Powell

Andy Powell

Content editor

Andy, a seasoned horse racing expert with over 15 years of experience, possesses a comprehensive understanding of the sport, from delving into complex statistical data for flat racing in the UK and Ireland to crafting insightful flat racing blogs for OLBG.

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