2023 Winter Derby Preview, Trends & Analysis

2023 Winter Derby Preview, Trends & Analysis

2023 Winter Derby Preview

The Winter Derby was established back in 1998 when Philip Mitchell's Running Stag was successful under the guidance of Ray Cochrane. In 1999 the race which is run over ten furlongs at Lingfield racecourse was given a Listed status and then in 2006 was upgraded to a Grade 3.

This is the first group race of the year in Britain and is only one of four group races that are not run on the flat in Britain. The race is open to runners aged four years old or older, fillies and mares get a 3lb allowance. Penalties in the race are G1 winners 7lb, G2 winners 5lb and G3 winners 3lb.

Winter Derby Content:

To see which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are tipping throughout the card that includes this race, head over to the Lingfield Betting Picks on the day of the race, do they agree with the runners on the trend shortlist or are they predicting other runners?

When looking over the past 20 renewals, a time of 2:00.51 was set by Alenquer in 2022, that is the quickest time over that period, the runner was trained by William Haggas and ridden by Cieren Fallon. The slowest winning time was set in 2004 when Caluki won in a time of 2:05.85, booked to ride was Frankie Dettori on this L Camici trained runner.

These are the top three quickest run Winter Derby over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2022 - Alenquer (2:00.51)
  • 2013 - Farraaj (2:00.99)
  • 2016 - Grendisar (2:01.05)

How competitive is the Winter Derby market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2021 when the race had an over-round of 108%. The race in 2003 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 129%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Winter Derby, the over-round has been 120%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £120 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Winter Derby next time out then you would have back a total of 5 winners. Backing all 18 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -7.78. Whilst we wait for the 2023 Winter Derby remember you can get daily racing predictions from the expert tipsters on the racing predictions page.

Winter Derby Past Winners

Here are the Winter Derby past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall which the horse came from and also the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Winter Derby as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse (Drawn) Info
2022
2:00.51
Alenquer (FR)
4yo 9-0 (7 of 7) 11/4
Cieren Fallon
William Haggas (GB)
2021
2:04.92
Forest Of Dean (GB)
5yo 9-0 (1 of 5) 100/30
Robert Havlin
John Gosden (GB)
2020
2:01.64
Dubai Warrior (GB)
4yo 9-0 (3 of 7) 13/8
Frankie Dettori
John Gosden (GB)
2019
2:01.28
Wissahickon (USA)
4yo 9-0 (3 of 7) 1/4F
Frankie Dettori
John Gosden (GB)
2018
2:02.73
Master The World (IRE)
7yo 9-0 (9 of 10) 16/1
Sean Levey
David Elsworth (GB)
2017
2:04.68
Convey (GB)
5yo 9-0 (10 of 9) 11/2
Andrea Atzeni
Sir Michael Stoute (GB)
2016
2:01.05
Grendisar (IRE)
6yo 9-0 (7 of 8) 11/4
Adam Kirby
Marco Botti (GB)
2015
2:01.71
Tryster (IRE)
4yo 9-0 (4 of 11) 3/1F
Adam Kirby
Charlie Appleby (GB)
2014
2:01.41
Robin Hoods Bay (GB)
6yo 9-0 (8 of 14) 10/1
Luke Morris
Ed Vaughan (GB)
2013
2:00.99
Farraaj (IRE)
4yo 9-0 (5 of 9) 6/4F
Andrea Atzeni
Roger Varian (GB)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Winter Derby have been based:

  • GB: 19 winners with an additional 35 placings from 207 runners
  • ITY: 1 winner with an additional 0 placings from 2 runners
  • IRE: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 5 runners
  • FR: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 3 runners
  • GER: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 2 runners
  • AUS: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner

Winter Derby Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the Winter Derby over the last 20 renewals is John Gosden who has won the race 3 times. Those 3 winners came from Wissahickon (2019), Dubai Warrior (2020) & Forest Of Dean (2021).

Here are some of the top Winter Derby trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
John Gosden 11-3-8 -2.79 +3.46
Chris Wall 8-1-2 -2.00 -3.30
David Elsworth 6-1-1 +11.00 +4.60
Marco Botti 5-1-3 -1.25 -0.18
Sir Michael Stoute 4-1-2 +2.50 +3.00
William Haggas 3-1-1 +0.75 -0.28
Roger Varian 3-1-1 -0.50 -1.10
Charlie Appleby 2-1-1 +2.00 +0.80
Sylvester Kirk 1-1-1 +8.00 +4.80
Michael Easterby 1-1-1 +4.00 +2.40

Winter Derby Jockey Statistics

The leading jockey in the Winter Derby over the last 20 renewals is Frankie Dettori who has won the race 4 times. Those 4 winners came from Parasol (2003), Caluki (2004), Wissahickon (2019) & Dubai Warrior (2020). Other jockeys who have recorded multiple wins in the Winter Derby are Adam Kirby (2 wins) & Andrea Atzeni (2 wins).

Here are some of the top Winter Derby jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Frankie Dettori 6-4-4 +16.38 +9.08
Adam Kirby 11-2-4 -3.25 -0.85
Andrea Atzeni 4-2-2 +5.00 +2.20
Jamie Spencer 9-1-4 +0.00 -0.15
Luke Morris 7-1-1 +4.00 +0.00
Tom Queally 6-1-2 -3.62 +2.93
J F Egan 4-1-1 +0.50 -0.90
Robert Havlin 4-1-3 +0.33 +1.03
Sean Levey 3-1-1 +14.00 +7.60
Paul Mulrennan 3-1-1 +2.00 +0.40

2023 Winter Derby Trends

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,(1,10),9,6,(5,12),(1,5),2,2,1,1,(2,10),1,8,1,4,6,10,1,3,3,2

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (60%) - No bigger than 16/1
  • 20 / 20 (73%) - Won within last 5 starts
  • 20 / 20 (79%) - Made 1-7 starts (180 Days)
  • 20 / 20 (82%) - Carried 124-136lbs (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (82%) - Won at least a Cl2
  • 19 / 20 (67%) - Holds an OR of 100+
  • 19 / 20 (75%) - Field of 5-12 (Last Win)
  • 19 / 20 (82%) - Field of 5-12 (LTO)
  • 18 / 20 (67%) - In a Listed or Cl2 (Last Win)
  • 18 / 20 (71%) - Had 1-6 wins (AW)
  • 17 / 20 (53%) - Won within last 3 starts
  • 17 / 20 (75%) - Ran in a Listed or Cl2 (LTO)
  • 17 / 20 (78%) - Ran in England (LTO)

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Lingfield racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Winter Derby. You may want to do your own research into the race, there are times when there are a number of runners who pass the trends so you need to do your own research to find a bet, we have a Horse Racing Form Reading Made Easy & What to Look For article to help you do just this in the OLBG Betting School section.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not! With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then why share your thoughts on the Winter Derby by adding a tip on the race here.

Winter Derby Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +22.26 is when runners ran in a Class 1 (Listed) when last winning. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners ran in a Class 3 when last winning, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-39.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2022: Winner in 7 (5) [7 Runners]
  • 2021: Winner in 1 (2) [5 Runners]
  • 2020: Winner in 3 (6) [7 Runners]
  • 2019: Winner in 3 (4) [7 Runners]
  • 2018: Winner in 9 (8,4) [10 Runners]

The course which has produced the most winners of the Winter Derby is Lingfield (AW), there has been a total number of 11 winners of this race who ran at Lingfield (AW) last time out. The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Kempton (AW), there has been a total number of 4 winners of this race who ran at Kempton (AW) last time out.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 20 winners from a total of 207 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 13 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Winter Derby:

  • Dansili (2 Wins)
  • Halling (2 Wins)

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Winter Derby despite multiple attempts:

  • Grand Lodge (0 Wins from 6 runners)
  • Bertolini (0 Wins from 5 runners)
  • Cape Cross (0 Wins from 5 runners)
  • Green Desert (0 Wins from 5 runners)
  • Pivotal (0 Wins from 5 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest priced winner was Master The World in 2018 when winning for David Elsworth at odds of 16/1 under the guidance of Sean Levey. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 7 winning favourites in the race. Whilst we wait for the 2023 Winter Derby remember you can get daily racing predictions from the top racing tipsters on the best racing tipsters page. If you are interested in other races at Lingfield racecourse, then why not have a read of our blog for the Quebec Stakes.

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