Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Preview, Trends & Analysis (Arc Day)

We look at the Group 1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe ahead of the next renewal, a race contested over 1m4f at Longchamp during Arc Day to see which runners, trainers and jockeys have previously won the race and which trends can you use to find the winner of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Preview, Trends & Analysis (Arc Day)
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Preview, Trends & Analysis (Arc Day)

2023 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Preview

Established in 1920, the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe is a Group 1 race that is run at Longchamp racecourse in October, more often than not on the first Sunday of October. The race is open to runners who are aged three or older and is run over a trip of one mile and four furlongs and is considered by many the highlight of the racing season in France and in Europe is only behind the Epsom Derby in terms of prestige.

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Content:

Why not use the trends shortlist below to help you narrow down the field and then head over to the dedicated Longchamp Betting Picks page to see which of those runners are being supported by the OLBG expert racing tipsters to find yourself a bet.

When looking over the past 20 renewals, a time of 2:23.61 was set by Found in 2016, which is the quickest time over that period, the runner was trained by A P O'Brien and ridden by Ryan Moore. The slowest winning time was set in 2020 when Sottsass won in a time of 2:39.30, booked to ride was Cristian Demuro on this J-C Rouget trained runner.

These are the top three quickest-run Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2016 - Found (2:23.61)
  • 2011 - Danedream (2:24.49)
  • 2004 - Bago (2:25.00)

How competitive is the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2006 when the race had an over-round of 117%. The race in 2004 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 134%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, the over-round has been 124%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £124 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe next time out then you would have back a total of 6 winners. Backing all 13 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -3.54. Before placing your bet on the 2023 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe see which other runners today are being back on the racing predictions page.

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Past Winners

Here are the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and also the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse (Drawn) Info
2022
2:35.71
Alpinista (GB)
5yo 9-2 (6 of 20) 33/10F
Luke Morris
Sir Mark Prescott Bt (GB)
2021
2:37.62
Torquator Tasso (GER)
4yo 9-5 (12 of 14) 72/1
Rene Piechulek
Marcel Weiss (GER)
2020
2:39.30
Sottsass (FR)
4yo 9-5 (4 of 11) 73/10
Cristian Demuro
J-C Rouget (FR)
2019
2:31.97
Waldgeist (GB)
5yo 9-5 (3 of 12) 131/10
Pierre-Charles Boudot
A Fabre (FR)
2018
2:29.24
Enable (GB)
4yo 9-2 (6 of 19) 1/1F
Frankie Dettori
John Gosden (GB)
2017
2:28.69
Enable (GB)
3yo 8-9 (2 of 18) 10/11F
Frankie Dettori
John Gosden (GB)
2016
2:23.61
Found (IRE)
4yo 9-2 (12 of 16) 6/1
Ryan Moore
A P O'Brien (IRE)
2015
2:27.23
Golden Horn (GB)
3yo 8-11 (14 of 17) 9/2
Frankie Dettori
John Gosden (GB)
2014
2:26.05
Treve (FR)
4yo 9-2 (3 of 20) 11/1
Thierry Jarnet
Mme Christiane Head (FR)
2013
2:32.04
Treve (FR)
3yo 8-8 (15 of 17) 9/2
Thierry Jarnet
Mme Christiane Head (FR)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe have been based:

  • FR: 10 winners with an additional 20 placings from 150 runners
  • GB: 5 winners with an additional 11 placings from 63 runners
  • IRE: 3 winners with an additional 5 placings from 56 runners
  • GER: 2 winners with an additional 2 placings from 14 runners
  • JPN: 0 winners with an additional 3 placings from 28 runners
  • CZE: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 4 runners
  • ITY: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 2 runners
  • BRZ: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
  • QA: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Trainer Statistics

There are two leading trainers in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe over the last 20 renewals with both A Fabre & John Gosden who have both won the race 3 times. A Fabre winners have been with Hurricane Run (2005), Rail Link (2006) & Waldgeist (2019). John Gosden winners have been with Golden Horn (2015), Enable (2017) & Enable (2018). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe are A P O'Brien (2 wins), A De Royer-Dupre (2 wins) & Mme Christiane Head (2 wins). There is one trainer who has not had the best of times in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, E Lellouche has sent a total of 10 runners to the race without recording any wins.

Here are some of the top Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
A Fabre 36-3-14 -9.15 -12.31
John Gosden 12-3-5 -2.59 -4.74
A P O'Brien 50-2-6 -36.50 -39.54
A De Royer-Dupre 22-2-5 -16.12 -15.23
Mme Christiane Head 4-2-2 +13.50 +5.75
J-C Rouget 15-1-3 -6.70 -7.96
Sir Michael Stoute 10-1-2 -3.00 -5.50
C Laffon-Parias 5-1-1 +29.00 +12.50
J E Pease 3-1-3 +8.00 +8.10
Marcel Weiss 2-1-2 +71.00 +42.70

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Jockey Statistics

The leading jockey in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe over the last 20 renewals is Frankie Dettori who has won the race 3 times. Those 3 winners came from Golden Horn (2015), Enable (2017) & Enable (2018). Other jockeys who have recorded multiple wins in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe are Christophe Soumillon (2 wins), Ryan Moore (2 wins), Thierry Jarnet (2 wins) & Kieren Fallon (2 wins). There are multiple jockeys who have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, Christophe-Patrice Lemaire (0-11), Maxime Guyon (0-10) & Mickael Barzalona (0-10) have all failed to produce a single winner despite having multiple rides to the race.

Here are some of the top Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Frankie Dettori 18-3-8 -8.59 -9.24
Christophe Soumillon 17-2-7 -11.12 -9.93
Ryan Moore 14-2-2 +0.00 -6.00
Thierry Jarnet 8-2-3 +9.50 +2.25
Kieren Fallon 7-2-4 +3.25 +1.20
Olivier Peslier 17-1-3 +17.00 +3.10
Stephane Pasquier 14-1-1 -5.00 -8.20
Pierre-Charles Boudot 8-1-2 +6.10 +1.99
Cristian Demuro 7-1-2 +1.30 -0.46
Thierry Gillet 4-1-3 +7.00 +7.10

2023 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Trends

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,3,5,5,DSQ,10,1,1,4,7,7,2,3,4,5,1,1,2,6,3,1

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well. The trend information is based on the available information on the racing post in terms of previous runs etc.

  • 20 / 20 (67%) - Not on HY/SFT/SLW (Debut)
  • 20 / 20 (72%) - Furthest placed 1m4f - 1m6f
  • 20 / 20 (77%) - No bigger than 33/1 (Career)
  • 20 / 20 (78%) - Had 1-12 placings (G1s)
  • 20 / 20 (78%) - Achieved a RPR of 112+ (Trip)
  • 20 / 20 (79%) - Had placed in a G1
  • 20 / 20 (80%) - No bigger than 6/1 (Last Win)
  • 20 / 20 (81%) - Achieved a RPR of 111+ (Last Win)
  • 20 / 20 (83%) - Ran over 1m2f - 1m4f (Last Win)
  • 20 / 20 (86%) - Not JPN/USA/BRZ/NZ bred
  • 20 / 20 (87%) - Placed within last 2 starts
  • 19 / 20 (59%) - Never further than 1m4f
  • 19 / 20 (61%) - No bigger than 33/1
  • 19 / 20 (63%) - Previously won a G1
  • 19 / 20 (66%) - Made 2+ starts (Jockey)
  • 19 / 20 (66%) - Had 1+ wins (Jockey)
  • 19 / 20 (66%) - Beaten no more 2¼l LTO
  • 19 / 20 (77%) - Had 1-7 placings (Trip)
  • 19 / 20 (81%) - Won within last 4 starts
  • 18 / 20 (77%) - Ran within last 38 days

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Longchamp racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. If you are a newcomer to horse racing betting, then the number of types of bets can be scary! Don't let that put you off though, head over to this Types Of Horse Racing Bet article and have a read, you will then have a better knowledge of betting on racing in the future and there are plenty of other articles in the OLBG Betting School too.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe by adding a tip on the race here.

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +77.95 is when runners had the same jockey as on debut. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners ran on Soft ground on debut, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-75.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2022: Winner in 6 (2,18) [20 Runners]
  • 2021: Winner in 12 (3,2) [14 Runners]
  • 2020: Winner in 4 (1,7) [11 Runners]
  • 2019: Winner in 3 (9,1) [12 Runners]
  • 2018: Winner in 6 (15,9) [19 Runners]

The course which has produced the most winners of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe is Longchamp, there has been a total number of 9 winners of this race who ran at Longchamp last time out. The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Leopardstown, there has been a total number of 5 winners of this race who ran at Leopardstown last time out.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 11 winners from a total of 252 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 9 winners from a total of 67 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:

  • Cape Cross (2 Wins)
  • Galileo (2 Wins)
  • Motivator (2 Wins)
  • Nathaniel (2 Wins)

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe despite multiple attempts:

  • Monsun (0 Wins from 14 runners)
  • Sadlers Wells (0 Wins from 13 runners)
  • Dubawi (0 Wins from 11 runners)
  • Sea The Stars (0 Wins from 10 runners)
  • Deep Impact (0 Wins from 8 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest priced winner was Torquator Tasso in 2021 when winning for Marcel Weiss at odds of 72/1 under the guidance of Rene Piechulek. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 5 winning favourites in the race. Remember to bookmark the best racing tipsters page so you can get easy access to the best OLBG racing tipsters. All figures and trends above, such as the horse's previous runs are based on the information that is available on the racing post.

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