Epsom Derby Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (Derby Festival)

Updated: 8361 1 Horse Racing

We look at the Epsom Derby ahead of the next renewal, a race contested over 1m4f at Epsom during the Derby Festival to see which runners, trainers and jockeys have previously won the race and which trends you can use to find the winner of the Epsom Derby.

Epsom Derby Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (Derby Festival)
Andy Powell Content Editor

Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.

2024 Epsom Derby Preview

The Epsom Derby was first run in 1780, a year after the inaugural running of the Epsom Oaks and was won by Diomed who still has a race named after him at the Epsom Derby meeting. Initially run on a Thursday at Epsom and then traditionally on the first Wednesday in June until 1994 after which it moved to its current Saturday slot, the Epsom Derby is open to three-year-old colts and fillies and is run over one mile four furlongs.

Epsom Derby Information:

If you are interested in other predictions at Epsom then head over to the Epsom tips page to see which runners are being supported by the OLBG racing tipsters and also compare those predictions to the runners that make the trend shortlist when added below. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Races Covered at the Epsom Derby Festival section for links to these.

How competitive is the Epsom Derby market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2021 when the race had an over-round of 113%. The race in 2007 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 132%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Epsom Derby, the over-round has been 123%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £123 which is bet.

Epsom Derby Trends:

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Epsom Derby next time out then you would have backed a total of 6 winners. Backing all 18 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -7.74. Whilst we wait for the 2024 Epsom Derby remember you can get daily racing predictions from the expert tipsters on the racing predictions page.

The runner that holds the record over the past 20 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2016 renewal when Harzand from D K Weld under the guidance of Pat Smullen, won in a time of 2:40.09, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Workforce, trained by Sir Michael Stoute and ridden by Ryan Moore set the quickest time of 2:31.33 in the 2010 renewal.

These are the top three quickest-run Epsom Derby over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2010 - Workforce (2:31.33)
  • 2015 - Golden Horn (2:32.32)
  • 2017 - Wings Of Eagles (2:33.02)

Epsom Derby Past Winners

Here are the Epsom Derby past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and also the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Epsom Derby as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse (Drawn) Info
2023
2:33.88
Auguste Rodin (IRE)
3yo 9-2 (10 of 14) 9/2
Ryan Moore
A P O'Brien (IRE)
2022
2:36.38
Desert Crown (GB)
3yo 9-2 (12 of 17) 5/2F
Richard Kingscote
Sir Michael Stoute (GB)
2021
2:36.85
Adayar (IRE)
3yo 9-0 (1 of 11) 16/1
Adam Kirby
Charlie Appleby (GB)
2020
2:34.43
Serpentine (IRE)
3yo 9-0 (12 of 16) 25/1
Emmet McNamara
A P O'Brien (IRE)
2019
2:33.38
Anthony Van Dyck (IRE)
3yo 9-0 (7 of 13) 13/2
Seamie Heffernan
A P O'Brien (IRE)
2018
2:34.93
Masar (IRE)
3yo 9-0 (10 of 12) 16/1
William Buick
Charlie Appleby (GB)
2017
2:33.02
Wings Of Eagles (FR)
3yo 9-0 (14 of 18) 40/1
P B Beggy
A P O'Brien (IRE)
2016
2:40.09
Harzand (IRE)
3yo 9-0 (9 of 16) 13/2
Pat Smullen
D K Weld (IRE)
2015
2:32.32
Golden Horn (GB)
3yo 9-0 (8 of 12) 13/8F
Frankie Dettori
John Gosden (GB)
2014
2:33.63
Australia (GB)
3yo 9-0 (12 of 16) 11/8F
Joseph O'Brien
A P O'Brien (IRE)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Epsom Derby have been based:

  • IRE: 10 winners with an additional 16 placings from 108 runners
  • GB: 9 winners with an additional 23 placings from 162 runners
  • FR: 1 winner with an additional 1 placing from 9 runners
  • GER: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 2 runners

Epsom Derby Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the Epsom Derby over the last 20 renewals is A P O'Brien who has won the race seven times with those seven winners coming from Camelot (2012), Ruler Of The World (2013), Australia (2014), Wings Of Eagles (2017), Anthony Van Dyck (2019), Serpentine (2020) and Auguste Rodin (2023). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Epsom Derby are Sir Michael Stoute (3 wins) and Charlie Appleby (2 wins). There are two trainers who have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Epsom Derby, Andrew Balding has sent a total of 11 runners to the race without recording any wins whilst Saeed bin Suroor has sent out 10 without a winner.

Here are some of the top Epsom Derby trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
A P O'Brien 85-7-19 +7.00 -10.67
Sir Michael Stoute 12-3-5 +3.00 -0.80
Charlie Appleby 11-2-3 +23.00 +11.30
John Gosden 20-1-5 -17.37 -15.02
J S Bolger 5-1-1 +1.00 -1.50
A Fabre 5-1-1 +0.00 -1.60
D K Weld 4-1-2 +3.50 +0.75
Marcus Tregoning 4-1-2 +3.00 +0.50
Michael Bell 3-1-1 +1.00 -0.20
Peter Chapple-Hyam 3-1-1 -0.75 -1.37

Epsom Derby Jockey Statistics

The leading jockey in the Epsom Derby over the last 20 renewals is Ryan Moore who has won the race three times with those three winners coming from Workforce (2010), Ruler Of The World (2013) and Auguste Rodin (2023). The only other jockey to have recorded multiple wins in the Epsom Derby is Frankie Dettori (2 wins). There is one jockey who has not had the best of times in the Epsom Derby, Jamie Spencer has ridden a total of 11 runners to the race without recording any wins.

Here are some of the top Epsom Derby jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Ryan Moore 18-3-8 +2.50 -1.10
Frankie Dettori 17-2-5 -12.12 -10.94
Seamie Heffernan 15-1-4 -7.50 +1.62
William Buick 12-1-5 +5.00 +3.00
Martin Dwyer 4-1-1 +3.00 +0.00
Adam Kirby 3-1-1 +14.00 +7.60
Richard Kingscote 3-1-1 +0.50 -0.75
Mickael Barzalona 2-1-1 +3.00 +1.40
Emmet McNamara 1-1-1 +25.00 +12.50
Jamie Spencer 11-0-0 -11.00 -11.00

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): (1, 7), 1, 5, 1, 3, 2, 4, 3, 1, 12, 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 4, 7, 1, 10

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (70%) - Highest Placed is not LST/Cl2/Cl4-6
  • 20 / 20 (72%) - Highest Won is not LST/Cl2/Cl6
  • 20 / 20 (77%) - No bigger than 11/1 (Debut)
  • 20 / 20 (79%) - Achieved a TS of 52+ (Last Win)
  • 20 / 20 (80%) - No bigger than 40/1
  • 20 / 20 (81%) - Won by at least a neck (Last Win)
  • 20 / 20 (82%) - Highest Run is not LST/Cl2/Cl4/Cl5
  • 20 / 20 (86%) - No bigger than 123/10 (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (87%) - Achieved an RPR of 87+ (Last Win)
  • 20 / 20 (87%) - Achieved an RPR of 100+ (Career)
  • 20 / 20 (88%) - Carried 123 - 133lbs (Last Win)
  • 20 / 20 (88%) - Break of 7 - 224 days (Last Place)
  • 20 / 20 (88%) - Not on FM/STD (Last Win)
  • 19 / 20 (75%) - Had 1 - 2 placings (Season)
  • 19 / 20 (77%) - Placed within last 1 start

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Epsom racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Epsom Derby. You may want to do your own research into the race, there are times when there are a number of runners who pass the trends so you need to do your own research to find a bet, we have a Horse Racing Form Reading Made Easy & What to Look For article to help you do just this in the OLBG Betting School section.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Epsom Derby by adding a tip on the race here.

Epsom Derby Trend Analysis

The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +3.00 is when runners had a highest class run of Class 1 (G1). The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had a highest class won of Class 1 (Listed), when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-40.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2023: Winner in 10 (4,2) [14 Runners]
  • 2022: Winner in 12 (3,2) [17 Runners]
  • 2021: Winner in 1 (10,5) [11 Runners]
  • 2020: Winner in 12 (14,5) [16 Runners]
  • 2019: Winner in 7 (6,11) [13 Runners]

The courses which have produced the most winners of the Epsom Derby are Newmarket (Rowley) and York, there has been a total number of 6 winners from each of those courses.

Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Epsom Derby:

  • Galileo (5 Wins)
  • Montjeu (4 Wins)
  • Cape Cross (2 Wins)

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Epsom Derby despite multiple attempts:

  • Sadlers Wells (0 Wins from 18 runners)
  • Dubawi (0 Wins from 7 runners)
  • High Chaparral (0 Wins from 6 runners)
  • Teofilo (0 Wins from 6 runners)
  • Australia (0 Wins from 5 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Wings Of Eagles in 2017, winning for A P O'Brien at odds of 40/1 under the guidance of P B Beggy. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 7 winning favourites in the race. Whilst we wait for the 2024 Epsom Derby remember you can get daily racing predictions from the top racing tipsters on the best racing tipsters page.

Races Covered at the Epsom Derby Festival

Here is the 2024 schedule for the two-day Epsom Derby Festival, each race will be linked to the race blog and detail last year's winner in the table below.

Epsom Derby Festival races for Friday 31st May 2024

Race 2023 Winner Info
14:00
Woodcote Stakes
Bobsleigh (IRE)
2yo - 5/1
Eve Johnson Houghton
Charles Bishop
14:35
Racehorse Lotto Handicap
Austrian Theory (IRE)
4yo - 7/1
Charlie Johnston
Joe Fanning
15:10
Coronation Cup
Emily Upjohn (GB)
4yo - 11/4
John & Thady Gosden
Frankie Dettori
15:45
Betfred Handicap
Cadillac (IRE)
5yo - 12/1
George Boughey
Kevin Stott
16:30
Epsom Oaks
Soul Sister (IRE)
3yo - 11/4
John & Thady Gosden
Frankie Dettori
17:10
Surrey Stakes
Olivia Maralda (IRE)
3yo - 3/1
Roger Varian
Kevin Stott
17:45
Winners Wear Cavani Handicap
Spanish Star (IRE)
8yo - 12/1
Patrick Chamings
Rhys Clutterbuck

Epsom Derby Festival races for Saturday 1st June 2024

Race 2023 Winner Info
12:50
Diomed Stakes
Regal Reality (GB)
8yo - 5/1
Sir Michael Stoute
Ryan Moore
13:30
Epsom Derby
Auguste Rodin (IRE)
3yo - 9/2
A P OBrien
Ryan Moore
14:10
Princess Elizabeth Stakes
Prosperous Voyage (IRE)
4yo - 6/4
Ralph Beckett
Frankie Dettori
14:45
Epsom 3yo Dash
Tatterstall (IRE)
3yo - 8/1
Michael Dods
Connor Beasley
15:20
Epsom Dash
Navello (GB)
4yo - 25/1
George Boughey
Andrea Atzeni
15:55
Betfred Lester Piggott Handicap
Torito (GB)
3yo - 4/1
John & Thady Gosden
Benoit De La Sayette
16:30
Northern Dancer Handicap
Sheer Rocks (GB)
4yo - 11/2
Eve Johnson Houghton
Harry Davies
17:05
JRA Tokyo Trophy Handicap
Badri (GB)
6yo - 10/1
Ruth Carr
Hollie Doyle

Comments 1

D

Danseven


This year City of Troy is a banker as it's time when winning the Dewhurst was confirmed as tops when compared against Ancient Wisdom and Arabian Crown, on the same course and day.

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