You know how punters get lost in too much data or bet blindly? I break down the stats and trends so you can feel confident you’re betting with more than just gut instinct.
2027 Northern Dancer Handicap Preview
The longest of the handicaps to take place during the Derby Festival is the Northern Dancer Handicap, a class two race that is contested over a distance of one mile and four furlongs and restricted to runners who are aged four or older.
Northern Dancer Handicap Information:
- Northern Dancer Handicap Past Winners
- Northern Dancer Handicap Trainer Statistics
- Northern Dancer Handicap Jockey Statistics
If you are interested in other predictions at Epsom, then head over to the Epsom tips page to see which runners are being supported by the OLBG racing tipsters and also compare those predictions to the runners that make the trend shortlist when added below. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information. Head down to the Races Covered at the Epsom Derby Festival section for links to these.
Best Horse Racing Betting Sites 2026
How competitive is the Northern Dancer Handicap market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2023, when the race had an over-round of 113%. The race in 2018 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 135%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Northern Dancer Handicap, the over-round has been 124%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £124 which is bet.
Below you will find the 2027 Northern Dancer Handicap Trends. See which patterns have occurred over the recent renewals that you may be able to use for the next renewal. We also have a section that looks at the Northern Dancer Handicap Trend Analysis.
These are the top three quickest-run Northern Dancer Handicap races over the last 20 renewals:
- Blue Surf (2:34.39) in 2015
- Soto Sizzler (2:34.55) in 2019
- Fortuni (2:34.68) in 2010
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? Over the past 20 renewals, if you had followed the winner of the Northern Dancer Handicap next time out, then you would have backed a total of 2 winners. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since their win at SP next time out would have returned an LSP of -1.50. Remember to bookmark the racing tips page to access the OLBG racing picks easily daily.
The runner that holds the record over the past 20 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2026 renewal when Too Soon from Gary & Josh Moore under the guidance of Warren Fentiman, won in a time of 2:45.57, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Blue Surf, trained by Amanda Perrett and ridden by Pat Dobbs set the quickest time of 2:34.39 in the 2015 renewal.
Northern Dancer Handicap Past Winners
Here are the Northern Dancer Handicap past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the race year, the winning horse, and the horse's age & weight. Also detailed is the stall from which the horse came and the total number of runners in the race. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the Northern Dancer Handicap are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 2:45.57 | Too Soon (GB) 4yo 8-5 (13 of 13) 17/2 | Warren Fentiman (3lbs) Gary & Josh Moore (GB) |
| 2025 2:41.33 | Small Fry (IRE) 4yo 7-13 (2 of 14) 9/4F | Ashley Lewis (7lbs) Gary & Josh Moore (GB) |
| 2024 2:40.13 | Relentless Voyager (GB) 4yo 9-8 (1 of 14) 7/1 | Oisin Murphy Andrew Balding (GB) |
| 2023 2:36.25 | Sheer Rocks (GB) 4yo 8-6 (1 of 8) 11/2 | Harry Davies (3lbs) Eve Johnson Houghton (GB) |
| 2022 2:38.11 | Midnights Legacy (GB) 5yo 9-1 (12 of 11) 3/1F | William Buick Alan King (GB) |
| 2021 2:38.29 | Midnights Legacy (GB) 4yo 9-3 (5 of 10) 12/1 | William Buick Alan King (GB) |
| 2019 2:34.55 | Soto Sizzler (GB) 4yo 8-5 (11 of 11) 9/2 | Jimmy Quinn William Knight (GB) |
| 2018 2:35.56 | Dash Of Spice (GB) 4yo 8-4 (9 of 17) 11/4F | Silvestre De Sousa David Elsworth (GB) |
| 2017 2:37.94 | Soldier In Action (FR) 4yo 9-6 (9 of 10) 12/1 | James Doyle Mark Johnston (GB) |
| 2016 2:41.81 | Green Light (GB) 5yo 8-8 (16 of 17) 16/1 | Oisin Murphy Ralph Beckett (GB) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Northern Dancer Handicap have been based:
- GB: 20 winners with an additional 43 placings from 270 runners
- IRE: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 3 runners
- NOR: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 1 runner
Northern Dancer Handicap Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the Northern Dancer Handicap over the last 20 renewals is Amanda Perrett, who has won the race three times, with those three winners coming from Alfie Noakes (2006), Nosferatu (2007) and Blue Surf (2015). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Northern Dancer Handicap are Gary & Josh Moore (2 wins) and Alan King (2 wins). One trainer has not had the best of times in the Northern Dancer Handicap; Ian Williams has sent a total of 15 runners to the race without recording a win.
Here are some of the top Northern Dancer Handicap trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Perrett | 14-3-5 | +25.50 | +15.12 |
| Gary & Josh Moore | 5-2-2 | +7.75 | +3.72 |
| Alan King | 4-2-2 | +13.00 | +7.00 |
| Gary Moore | 12-1-1 | -5.00 | -7.25 |
| Ralph Beckett | 10-1-2 | +7.00 | +4.00 |
| Andrew Balding | 10-1-2 | -2.00 | -3.98 |
| David Elsworth | 5-1-1 | -1.25 | -2.28 |
| Philip Hobbs | 3-1-1 | +9.00 | +4.88 |
| Sir Mark Prescott Bt | 2-1-1 | +8.00 | +4.63 |
| William Knight | 2-1-2 | +3.50 | +6.33 |
Northern Dancer Handicap Jockey Statistics
The leading jockey in the Northern Dancer Handicap over the last 20 renewals is Oisin Murphy, who has won the race three times, with those three winners coming from Miss Marjurie (2014), Green Light (2016) and Relentless Voyager (2024). Other jockeys who have recorded multiple wins in the Northern Dancer Handicap are Silvestre De Sousa (2 wins), William Buick (2 wins) and Pat Dobbs (2 wins). There is one jockey who has not had the best of times in the Northern Dancer Handicap; Ryan Moore has ridden 11 runners in the race without recording any wins.
Here are some of the top Northern Dancer Handicap jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oisin Murphy | 7-3-4 | +26.00 | +15.56 |
| Silvestre De Sousa | 10-2-3 | +2.25 | -0.95 |
| William Buick | 8-2-4 | +9.00 | +7.00 |
| Pat Dobbs | 5-2-4 | +23.00 | +18.50 |
| Jim Crowley | 10-1-2 | -4.50 | -4.94 |
| James Doyle | 7-1-2 | +6.00 | +4.20 |
| Jamie Spencer | 7-1-1 | +5.00 | +0.88 |
| Harry Davies | 4-1-2 | +2.50 | +1.74 |
| Kerrin McEvoy | 3-1-1 | +10.00 | +5.50 |
| Warren Fentiman | 2-1-1 | +7.50 | +4.31 |
2027 Northern Dancer Handicap Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 11, 8, 2, 11, 4, 11, 4, 2, 2, 3, 5, 4, 1, 4, 3, 1, 2, 5, 1, 12
The percentage shown is the proportion of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones, as you would expect them to do well.
- 20 / 20 (73%) - No bigger than 20/1
- 20 / 20 (76%) - Ran in 1 - 19 races (Hcps)
- 20 / 20 (78%) - Dam is not FR/ITY/NZ/POL/UAE/USA bred
- 20 / 20 (78%) - Achieved an RPR of 90+ (Last 3)
- 20 / 20 (79%) - Ran in 4 - 32 races (Career)
- 20 / 20 (82%) - Highest Run is not G1/G3/Cl5
- 20 / 20 (83%) - In a field of 4 - 13 (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (84%) - No bigger than 12/1 (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (85%) - Not on GS/FM/FS (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (86%) - Ran in 2 - 12 races (1 Year)
- 20 / 20 (87%) - Off a break of 10 - 237 days
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Furthest ran 1m2½f - 2m
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Fewer than 6 races (180 Days)
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Fewer than 3 wins (Trip)
- 20 / 20 (89%) - Fewer than 12 placings (Hcps)
Remember to use the trends listed above, along with the Epsom racing predictions, to see if you can find the winner of the Northern Dancer Handicap. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles covering numerous topics.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, it is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Northern Dancer Handicap by adding a tip on the race here.
101 Ways to find Winners in Horse Racing
2027 Northern Dancer Handicap Runners & Shortlist
The runners and the final trends shortlist for the 2027 renewal of the Northern Dancer Handicap will be added once the final declarations are confirmed, which are usually 48 hours before the race.
Northern Dancer Handicap Trend Analysis
✅ The trend factor, which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +11.50, is when runners were aged 4.
❌ The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners ran on Good To Soft ground when last winning, when backing these, the trend shows a record of 0-38.
Here are the most recent winning draws, along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2026: Winner in 13 (8,15) [13 Runners]
- 2025: Winner in 2 (8,14) [14 Runners]
- 2024: Winner in 1 (5,15) [14 Runners]
- 2023: Winner in 1 (3,8) [8 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 12 (11,9) [11 Runners]
The courses that have produced the most winners of the Northern Dancer Handicap are Goodwood, Epsom, Newmarket (Rowley), York and Windsor; there have been a total of 2 winners from each of those courses.
The race is open to both sexes, with male runners having produced a total of 19 winners from a total of 254 runners, while female runners have produced 1 winner from a total of 20 runners.
Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Northern Dancer Handicap:
- Dubawi (2 Wins)
- Midnight Legend (2 Wins)
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Northern Dancer Handicap despite multiple attempts:
- Cape Cross (0 Wins from 8 runners)
- Fantastic Light (0 Wins from 6 runners)
- Rock Of Gibraltar (0 Wins from 6 runners)
- Beat Hollow (0 Wins from 5 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Blue Surf in 2015, winning for Amanda Perrett at odds of 20/1 under the guidance of Pat Dobbs. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals, there have been 3 winning favourites in the race. Before placing your bet on the 2027 Northern Dancer Handicap, head over to see which runners the best racing tipsters are tipping today.
Route to the Northern Dancer Handicap
Many trainers target races as preparation for the Northern Dancer Handicap. These are the races which the recent winners ran in before coming here:
| Info | Last Race |
|---|---|
| 2026 - Too Soon Goodwood - 5th of 7 (19/2) | Avastra Funds Handicap |
| 2025 - Small Fry Chester - 1st of 12 (13/8) | Xenon Workplace Apprentice Handicap |
| 2024 - Relentless Voyager Newmarket (Rowley) - 3rd of 9 (13/2) | William Hill Epic Boost Handicap |
| 2023 - Sheer Rocks Ascot - 1st of 8 (11/1) | Peroni Nastro Azzurro Handicap |
| 2022 - Midnights Legacy Plumpton - 3rd of 6 (5/1) | Betting.Bet Sussex Champion Hurdle Handicap Hurdle |
| 2021 - Midnights Legacy Salisbury - 2nd of 7 (20/1) | AJN Steelstock "Delivering Steel Expertise" City Bowl Handicap |
| 2019 - Soto Sizzler Epsom - 1st of 12 (11/4) | Investec Corporate & Investment Banking Great Metropolitan Handicap |
| 2018 - Dash Of Spice Kempton (AW) - 2nd of 13 (11/8) | 32Red Handicap |
| 2017 - Soldier In Action York - 6th of 8 (14/1) | Jorvik Stakes |
| 2016 - Green Light Windsor - 2nd of 7 (2/1) | Equestrian Surfaces Ltd Handicap |
Article Contributor Information
We are fortunate to have an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to the creation and maintenance of this Northern Dancer Handicap Preview are Andy and James. They both work on the Horse Racing Tips team, overseeing the tipsters and managing the tip settlement, while also creating and managing all the horse racing event previews for Flat racing.
James Banting
Expert Guide
Andy Powell
Expert Guide
Races Covered at the Epsom Derby Festival
Here is the 2027 schedule for the two-day Epsom Derby Festival. Each race will be linked to the race blog, and details of last year's winner are in the table below.
Epsom Derby Festival races for Friday 4th June 2027
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| Epsom 3yo Dash | Naanas Shadow (IRE) 3yo - 7/2 | Katie Scott Oisin Murphy |
| Woodcote Stakes | Hickory Lad (IRE) 2yo - 100/30 | Phillip Makin Sam James |
| Diomed Stakes | Seagulls Eleven (IRE) 4yo - 5/2 | Hugo Palmer Oisin Murphy |
| Betfred Handicap | Sallaal (IRE) 4yo - 5/2 | Roger Varian Ray Dawson |
| Epsom Oaks | Thundering On (GB) 3yo - 5/1 | Joseph Patrick O'Brien Dylan Browne McMonagle |
| HKJC World Pool Handicap | Mister Winston (GB) 4yo - 6/1 | Andrew Balding Oisin Murphy |
| Surrey Stakes | Ellusive Butterfly (IRE) 3yo - 9/1 | K R Burke Clifford Lee |
| Debenhams Handicap | Colombier (GB) 6yo - 12/1 | Hamad Al Jehani James Doyle |
Epsom Derby Festival races for Saturday 5th June 2027
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| Tattenham Corner Stakes | Ten Bob Tony (IRE) 5yo - 11/2 | Ed Walker Kieran Shoemark |
| Princess Elizabeth Stakes | Sparks Fly (GB) 6yo - 7/2 | David Loughnane Laura Pearson |
| Coronation Cup | Bay City Roller (IRE) 4yo - 17/2 | George Scott Oisin Murphy |
| Epsom Dash | Arklow Lad (IRE) 4yo - 7/1 | Michael Appleby Harry Davies |
| Epsom Derby | Christmas Day (IRE) 3yo - 7/1 | A P O'Brien Ronan Whelan |
| Lester Piggott Handicap | Folk Pageant (GB) 3yo - 5/1 | Charlie Johnston Rowan Scott |
| Northern Dancer Handicap | Too Soon (GB) 4yo - 17/2 | Gary & Josh Moore Warren Fentiman |
| JRA Tokyo Trophy Handicap | Sondad (GB) 5yo - 11/2 | Michael & David Easterby Joanna Mason |
