Northern Dancer Handicap Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (Derby Festival)

Updated: 322 Horse Racing

If you are a fan of horse racing trends then this preview of the Northern Dancer Handicap will be perfect for you! Not only do we look at the trends but we look at past winners as well as trainer and jockey records for the Northern Dancer Handicap, a race run over 1m4f at Epsom during the Derby Festival.

Northern Dancer Handicap Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (Derby Festival)
In this article: Preview
Andy Powell Content Editor

Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.

2024 Northern Dancer Handicap Preview

The longest of the handicaps to take place during the Derby Festival is the World Pool Northern Dancer Handicap, a class two race that is contested over a distance of one mile and four furlongs and restricted to runners who are aged four or older.

Northern Dancer Handicap Information:

We also have a dedicated Epsom tips page that will cover this race as well as all of the other races on the day of the race, see which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are predicting to win this race and the others on the cards. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Races Covered at the Epsom Derby Festival section for links to these.

How competitive is the Northern Dancer Handicap market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2023 when the race had an over-round of 113%. The race in 2018 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 135%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Northern Dancer Handicap, the over-round has been 123%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £123 which is bet.

Northern Dancer Handicap Trends:

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Northern Dancer Handicap next time out then you would have backed a total of 2 winners. Backing all 20 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -2.50. Remember to use the racing predictions along with the information on this page to find a bet on the 2024 Northern Dancer Handicap.

The runner that holds the record over the past 20 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2016 renewal when Green Light from Ralph Beckett under the guidance of Oisin Murphy, won in a time of 2:41.81, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Blue Surf, trained by Amanda Perrett and ridden by Pat Dobbs set the quickest time of 2:34.39 in the 2015 renewal.

These are the top three quickest-run Northern Dancer Handicap over the last 20 renewals:

  1. Blue Surf (2:34.39) in 2015
  2. Soto Sizzler (2:34.55) in 2019
  3. Fortuni (2:34.68) in 2010

Northern Dancer Handicap Past Winners

Here are the Northern Dancer Handicap past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Northern Dancer Handicap as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

YearHorse (Drawn)Info
2023
2:36.25
Sheer Rocks (GB)
4yo 8-6 (1 of 8) 11/2
Harry Davies (3lbs)
Eve Johnson Houghton (GB)
2022
2:38.11
Midnights Legacy (GB)
5yo 9-1 (12 of 11) 3/1F
William Buick
Alan King (GB)
2021
2:38.29
Midnights Legacy (GB)
4yo 9-3 (5 of 10) 12/1
William Buick
Alan King (GB)
2019
2:34.55
Soto Sizzler (GB)
4yo 8-5 (11 of 11) 9/2
Jimmy Quinn
William Knight (GB)
2018
2:35.56
Dash Of Spice (GB)
4yo 8-4 (9 of 17) 11/4F
Silvestre De Sousa
David Elsworth (GB)
2017
2:37.94
Soldier In Action (FR)
4yo 9-6 (9 of 10) 12/1
James Doyle
Mark Johnston (GB)
2016
2:41.81
Green Light (GB)
5yo 8-8 (16 of 17) 16/1
Oisin Murphy
Ralph Beckett (GB)
2015
2:34.39
Blue Surf (GB)
6yo 9-6 (13 of 19) 20/1
Pat Dobbs
Amanda Perrett (GB)
2014
2:34.87
Miss Marjurie (IRE)
4yo 8-4 (5 of 15) 7/1
Oisin Murphy (3lbs)
Denis Coakley (GB)
2013
2:39.12
Sheikhzayedroad (GB)
4yo 9-7 (11 of 12) 5/1
Martin Lane
David Simcock (GB)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Northern Dancer Handicap have been based:

  • GB: 20 winners with an additional 45 placings from 271 runners
  • IRE: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 3 runners

Northern Dancer Handicap Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the Northern Dancer Handicap over the last 20 renewals is Amanda Perrett who has won the race three times with those three winners coming from Alfie Noakes (2006), Nosferatu (2007) and Blue Surf (2015). The only other trainer to have recorded multiple wins in the Northern Dancer Handicap is Alan King (2 wins).

Here are some of the top Northern Dancer Handicap trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

TrainerR-W-PWinEW
Amanda Perrett16-3-5+23.50+13.12
Alan King4-2-2+13.00+7.00
Gary Moore14-1-1-7.00-9.25
Ralph Beckett7-1-2+10.00+7.00
John Quinn7-1-1-1.50-3.19
David Elsworth7-1-2-3.25-2.97
Simon Dow5-1-1+12.00+5.60
Philip Hobbs3-1-1+9.00+4.88
Sir Mark Prescott Bt2-1-1+8.00+4.63
Denis Coakley2-1-1+6.00+3.38

Northern Dancer Handicap Jockey Statistics

There are multiple leading jockeys in the Northern Dancer Handicap over the last 20 renewals with Silvestre De Sousa, William Buick, Pat Dobbs and Oisin Murphy having all won the race two times. Silvestre De Sousa winners have been with Fox Hunt (2011) and Dash Of Spice (2018). William Buick winners have been with Midnights Legacy (2021 & 2022). Pat Dobbs winners have been with Coin Of The Realm (2009) and Blue Surf (2015). Oisin Murphy's winners have been with Miss Marjurie (2014) and Green Light (2016). There is one jockey who has not had the best of times in the Northern Dancer Handicap, Ryan Moore has ridden a total of 12 runners to the race without recording any wins.

Here are some of the top Northern Dancer Handicap jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

JockeyR-W-PWinEW
Silvestre De Sousa9-2-3+3.25+0.05
William Buick8-2-4+9.00+7.00
Pat Dobbs5-2-4+23.00+18.50
Oisin Murphy5-2-3+20.00+12.18
Jim Crowley10-1-2-4.50-4.94
Jamie Spencer7-1-1+5.00+0.88
James Doyle5-1-2+8.00+6.20
Kerrin McEvoy4-1-2+9.00+6.50
Jimmy Quinn3-1-1+2.50+0.70
Harry Davies2-1-1+4.50+2.30

Northern Dancer Handicap Trend Analysis

The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +13.00 is when runners had 1 place in the past 180 days. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners ran on Good To Soft ground when last winning, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-41.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2023: Winner in 1 (3,8) [8 Runners]
  • 2022: Winner in 12 (11,9) [11 Runners]
  • 2021: Winner in 5 (2,8) [10 Runners]
  • 2019: Winner in 11 (6,10) [11 Runners]
  • 2018: Winner in 9 (2,18,3) [17 Runners]

The courses that have produced the most winners of the Northern Dancer Handicap are Epsom, York and Windsor, there has been a total number of 2 winners from each of those courses.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 19 winners from a total of 252 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 1 winner from a total of 22 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Northern Dancer Handicap:

  • Dubawi (2 Wins)
  • In The Wings (2 Wins)
  • Midnight Legend (2 Wins)

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Northern Dancer Handicap despite multiple attempts:

  • Cape Cross (0 Wins from 8 runners)
  • Fantastic Light (0 Wins from 6 runners)
  • Rock Of Gibraltar (0 Wins from 6 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Blue Surf in 2015, winning for Amanda Perrett at odds of 20/1 under the guidance of Pat Dobbs. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there have been 3 winning favourites in the race. Before placing your bet on the 2024 Northern Dancer Handicap head over to see which other runners today are being backed by the best racing tipsters today.

Races Covered at the Epsom Derby Festival

Here is the 2024 schedule for the two-day Epsom Derby Festival, each race will be linked to the race blog and detail last year's winner in the table below.

Epsom Derby Festival races for Friday 31st May 2024

Race2023 WinnerInfo
14:00
Woodcote Stakes
Bobsleigh (IRE)
2yo - 5/1
Eve Johnson Houghton
Charles Bishop
14:35
Trustatrader Handicap
Austrian Theory (IRE)
4yo - 7/1
Charlie Johnston
Joe Fanning
15:10
Coronation Cup
Emily Upjohn (GB)
4yo - 11/4
John & Thady Gosden
Frankie Dettori
15:45
Betfred Handicap
Cadillac (IRE)
5yo - 12/1
George Boughey
Kevin Stott
16:30
Epsom Oaks
Soul Sister (IRE)
3yo - 11/4
John & Thady Gosden
Frankie Dettori
17:10
Surrey Stakes
Olivia Maralda (IRE)
3yo - 3/1
Roger Varian
Kevin Stott
17:40
Tattenham Handicap
Spanish Star (IRE)
8yo - 12/1
Patrick Chamings
Rhys Clutterbuck

Epsom Derby Festival races for Saturday 1st June 2024

Race2023 WinnerInfo
13:25
Lester Piggott Handicap
Torito (GB)
3yo - 4/1
John & Thady Gosden
Benoit De La Sayette
14:00
Princess Elizabeth Stakes
Prosperous Voyage (IRE)
4yo - 6/4
Ralph Beckett
Frankie Dettori
14:35
Diomed Stakes
Regal Reality (GB)
8yo - 5/1
Sir Michael Stoute
Ryan Moore
15:10
Epsom 3yo Dash
Tatterstall (IRE)
3yo - 8/1
Michael Dods
Connor Beasley
15:45
Epsom Dash
Navello (GB)
4yo - 25/1
George Boughey
Andrea Atzeni
16:30
Epsom Derby
Auguste Rodin (IRE)
3yo - 9/2
A P OBrien
Ryan Moore
17:15
Northern Dancer Handicap
Sheer Rocks (GB)
4yo - 11/2
Eve Johnson Houghton
Harry Davies
17:50
JRA Tokyo Trophy Handicap
Badri (GB)
6yo - 10/1
Ruth Carr
Hollie Doyle

Article Contributor Information

We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this Northern Dancer Handicap Preview are at hand, Andy and Darren. They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for Flat Racing.

Darren Brett

Darren Brett

Tipster competition manager

Darren has worked in the horse racing industry for decades bringing to OLBG for the last 20 years a wealth of knowledge, creating much of our content on these sports. Darren also manages our Grand National Guide and is the go-to font of knowledge for the world's greatest steeplechase.
Andy Powell

Andy Powell

Content editor

Andy, a seasoned horse racing expert with over 15 years of experience, possesses a comprehensive understanding of the sport, from delving into complex statistical data for flat racing in the UK and Ireland to crafting insightful flat racing blogs for OLBG.

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