Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.
2025 Northern Dancer Handicap Preview
The longest of the handicaps to take place during the Derby Festival is the World Pool Northern Dancer Handicap, a class two race that is contested over a distance of one mile and four furlongs and restricted to runners who are aged four or older.
Northern Dancer Handicap Information:
- Northern Dancer Handicap Past Winners
- Northern Dancer Handicap Trainer Statistics
- Northern Dancer Handicap Jockey Statistics
Our dedicated Epsom tips page will not only bring you predictions from the OLBG racing tipsters for the upcoming card that includes the Northern Dancer Handicap but will also have predictions for each meeting at Epsom throughout the season so be sure to head over there. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Races Covered at the Epsom Derby Festival section for links to these.
How competitive is the Northern Dancer Handicap market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2023 when the race had an over-round of 113%. The race in 2018 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 135%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Northern Dancer Handicap, the over-round has been 124%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £124 which is bet.
Northern Dancer Handicap Trends:
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Northern Dancer Handicap next time out then you would have backed a total of 2 winners. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -1.50. Before placing your bet on the 2025 Northern Dancer Handicap see which other runners today are being backed on the racing predictions page.
Over the last 20 renewals, it was Blue Surf, trained by Amanda Perrett and ridden by Pat Dobbs who set the fastest winning time in the Northern Dancer Handicap, the runner won the race in a time of 2:34.39 when winning the race in 2015. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer Ralph Beckett and jockey Oisin Murphy with Green Light who set the slowest winning time, the race-winning time was 2:41.81 in the 2016 renewal.
These are the top three quickest-run Northern Dancer Handicap over the last 20 renewals:
- Blue Surf (2:34.39) in 2015
- Soto Sizzler (2:34.55) in 2019
- Fortuni (2:34.68) in 2010
Northern Dancer Handicap Past Winners
Here are the Northern Dancer Handicap past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and the total number of runners in the race. The horse's trainer at the time of winning the Northern Dancer Handicap and the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 2:40.13 | Relentless Voyager (GB) 4yo 9-8 (1 of 14) 7/1 | Oisin Murphy Andrew Balding (GB) |
| 2023 2:36.25 | Sheer Rocks (GB) 4yo 8-6 (1 of 8) 11/2 | Harry Davies (3lbs) Eve Johnson Houghton (GB) |
| 2022 2:38.11 | Midnights Legacy (GB) 5yo 9-1 (12 of 11) 3/1F | William Buick Alan King (GB) |
| 2021 2:38.29 | Midnights Legacy (GB) 4yo 9-3 (5 of 10) 12/1 | William Buick Alan King (GB) |
| 2019 2:34.55 | Soto Sizzler (GB) 4yo 8-5 (11 of 11) 9/2 | Jimmy Quinn William Knight (GB) |
| 2018 2:35.56 | Dash Of Spice (GB) 4yo 8-4 (9 of 17) 11/4F | Silvestre De Sousa David Elsworth (GB) |
| 2017 2:37.94 | Soldier In Action (FR) 4yo 9-6 (9 of 10) 12/1 | James Doyle Mark Johnston (GB) |
| 2016 2:41.81 | Green Light (GB) 5yo 8-8 (16 of 17) 16/1 | Oisin Murphy Ralph Beckett (GB) |
| 2015 2:34.39 | Blue Surf (GB) 6yo 9-6 (13 of 19) 20/1 | Pat Dobbs Amanda Perrett (GB) |
| 2014 2:34.87 | Miss Marjurie (IRE) 4yo 8-4 (5 of 15) 7/1 | Oisin Murphy (3lbs) Denis Coakley (GB) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Northern Dancer Handicap have been based:
- GB: 20 winners with an additional 45 placings from 277 runners
- IRE: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 3 runners
Northern Dancer Handicap Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the Northern Dancer Handicap over the last 20 renewals is Amanda Perrett who has won the race three times with those three winners coming from Alfie Noakes (2006), Nosferatu (2007) and Blue Surf (2015). The only other trainer to have recorded multiple wins in the Northern Dancer Handicap is Alan King (2 wins). There is one trainer who has not had the best of times in the Northern Dancer Handicap, Ian Williams has sent a total of 11 runners to the race without recording any wins.
Here are some of the top Northern Dancer Handicap trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Perrett | 16-3-5 | +23.50 | +13.12 |
| Alan King | 4-2-2 | +13.00 | +7.00 |
| Gary Moore | 14-1-1 | -7.00 | -9.25 |
| Andrew Balding | 10-1-2 | -2.00 | -3.98 |
| Ralph Beckett | 8-1-2 | +9.00 | +6.00 |
| John Quinn | 7-1-1 | -1.50 | -3.19 |
| David Elsworth | 6-1-2 | -2.25 | -1.97 |
| Philip Hobbs | 3-1-1 | +9.00 | +4.88 |
| Sir Mark Prescott Bt | 2-1-1 | +8.00 | +4.63 |
| Denis Coakley | 2-1-1 | +6.00 | +3.38 |
Northern Dancer Handicap Jockey Statistics
The leading jockey in the Northern Dancer Handicap over the last 20 renewals is Oisin Murphy who has won the race three times with those three winners coming from Miss Marjurie (2014), Green Light (2016) and Relentless Voyager (2024). Other jockeys who have recorded multiple wins in the Northern Dancer Handicap are Silvestre De Sousa (2 wins), William Buick (2 wins) and Pat Dobbs (2 wins). There is one jockey who has not had the best of times in the Northern Dancer Handicap, Ryan Moore has ridden a total of 12 runners to the race without recording any wins.
Here are some of the top Northern Dancer Handicap jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oisin Murphy | 6-3-4 | +27.00 | +16.56 |
| Silvestre De Sousa | 9-2-3 | +3.25 | +0.05 |
| William Buick | 8-2-4 | +9.00 | +7.00 |
| Pat Dobbs | 5-2-4 | +23.00 | +18.50 |
| Jim Crowley | 10-1-2 | -4.50 | -4.94 |
| Jamie Spencer | 7-1-1 | +5.00 | +0.88 |
| James Doyle | 6-1-2 | +7.00 | +5.20 |
| Kerrin McEvoy | 4-1-2 | +9.00 | +6.50 |
| Jimmy Quinn | 3-1-1 | +2.50 | +0.70 |
| Harry Davies | 2-1-1 | +4.50 | +2.30 |
2025 Northern Dancer Handicap Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 2, 1, 11, 8, 2, 11, 4, 11, 4, 2, 2, 3, 5, 4, 1, 4, 3, 1, 2, 5
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.
- 20 / 20 (72%) - No bigger than 20/1
- 20 / 20 (76%) - Dam is not FR/ITY/NZ/POL/UAE/USA bred
- 20 / 20 (79%) - Achieved an RPR of 90+ (Last 3)
- 20 / 20 (81%) - Highest Run is not G1/G3/Cl5
- 20 / 20 (81%) - No bigger than 12/1 (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (82%) - In a field of 4 - 13 (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (82%) - Furthest Won 1m2f - 1m5½f
- 20 / 20 (85%) - Not on GS/FM (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (86%) - Held an OR of 84+
- 20 / 20 (86%) - Ran in 4 - 36 races (Career)
- 20 / 20 (86%) - Had 3 - 15 placings (Career)
- 20 / 20 (89%) - Furthest ran 1m2½f - 2m
- 20 / 20 (89%) - Is not GER/POL/UAE/USA bred
- 19 / 20 (83%) - No older than a 6yo
- 18 / 20 (89%) - Achieved a TS of 70+ (Hcps)
Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Epsom racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Northern Dancer Handicap. If you are a newcomer to horse racing betting, then the number of types of bets can be scary! Don't let that put you off though, head over to this Types Of Horse Racing Bet article and have a read, you will then have a better knowledge of betting on racing in the future and there are plenty of other articles in the OLBG Betting School too.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Northern Dancer Handicap by adding a tip on the race here.
Northern Dancer Handicap Trend Analysis
The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +4.25 is when runners were aged 4. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners ran on Good To Soft ground when last winning, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-41.
Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2024: Winner in 1 (5,15) [14 Runners]
- 2023: Winner in 1 (3,8) [8 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 12 (11,9) [11 Runners]
- 2021: Winner in 5 (2,8) [10 Runners]
- 2019: Winner in 11 (6,10) [11 Runners]
The courses that have produced the most winners of the Northern Dancer Handicap are Newmarket (Rowley), Epsom, York and Windsor, there has been a total number of 2 winners from each of those courses.
The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 19 winners from a total of 258 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 1 winner from a total of 22 runners.
Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Northern Dancer Handicap:
- Dubawi (2 Wins)
- Midnight Legend (2 Wins)
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Northern Dancer Handicap despite multiple attempts:
- Cape Cross (0 Wins from 8 runners)
- Fantastic Light (0 Wins from 6 runners)
- Rock Of Gibraltar (0 Wins from 6 runners)
- Beat Hollow (0 Wins from 5 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Blue Surf in 2015, winning for Amanda Perrett at odds of 20/1 under the guidance of Pat Dobbs. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there have been 3 winning favourites in the race. Before placing your bet on the 2025 Northern Dancer Handicap head over to see which other runners today are being backed by the best racing tipsters today.
Races Covered at the Epsom Derby Festival
Here is the 2025 schedule for the two-day Epsom Derby Festival, each race will be linked to the race blog and detail last year's winner in the table below.
Epsom Derby Festival races for Friday 6th June 2025
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 14:00 Woodcote Stakes | Teej A (IRE) 2yo - 7/2 | K R Burke Clifford Lee |
| 14:35 Trustatrader Handicap | Two Tempting (IRE) 5yo - 12/1 | Jonathan Portman David Egan |
| 15:10 Coronation Cup | Luxembourg (IRE) 5yo - 9/4 | A P OBrien Ryan Moore |
| 15:45 Betfred Handicap | Bolster (GB) 4yo - 5/1 | K R Burke Pierre-Louis Jamin |
| 16:30 Epsom Oaks | Ezeliya (FR) 3yo - 13/2 | D K Weld Chris Hayes |
| 17:10 Surrey Stakes | Evade (FR) 3yo - 10/1 | Archie Watson Oisin Murphy |
| 17:40 Tattenham Handicap | Rhoscolyn (GB) 6yo - 9/1 | David OMeara James Doyle |
Epsom Derby Festival races for Saturday 7th June 2025
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 13:25 Lester Piggott Handicap | Persica (IRE) 3yo - 9/2 | Richard Hannon Sean Levey |
| 14:00 Princess Elizabeth Stakes | Breege (GB) 4yo - 5/1 | John & Sean Quinn Jason Hart |
| 14:35 Diomed Stakes | Royal Scotsman (IRE) 4yo - 17/2 | Paul & Oliver Cole Jamie Spencer |
| 15:10 Epsom 3yo Dash | Blue Storm (GB) 3yo - 8/1 | Gemma Tutty Rossa Ryan |
| 15:45 Epsom Dash | Dream Composer (FR) 6yo - 6/1 | James Evans Joe Leavy |
| 16:30 Epsom Derby | City Of Troy (USA) 3yo - 3/1 | A P OBrien Ryan Moore |
| 17:15 Northern Dancer Handicap | Relentless Voyager (GB) 4yo - 7/1 | Andrew Balding Oisin Murphy |
| 17:50 JRA Tokyo Trophy Handicap | Misty Grey (IRE) 7yo - 7/1 | David OMeara Rossa Ryan |
Article Contributor Information
We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this Northern Dancer Handicap Preview are at hand, Andy and Darren. They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for Flat Racing.
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