Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.
2024 Lonsdale Cup Preview
One for horses with plenty of stamina, the Lonsdale Cup is a Group 2 race that is run over two miles and fifty-six yards and is open to runners who are aged three or older. The race takes place on day three of the York Ebor Festival in August of each year. Watch out for runners coming from the Goodwood Cup as that race has produced plenty of winners of this race, ten of the last seventeen winners came from that race also take note of those who do well in this race and go on to run in the Doncaster Cup.
Lonsdale Cup Information:
We also have a dedicated York tips page that will cover this race as well as all of the other races on the day of the race, see which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are predicting to win this race and the others on the cards. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Other Principal races during the York Ebor Festival section for links to these.
How competitive is the Lonsdale Cup market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2021 when the race had an over-round of 107%. The race in 2018 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 125%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Lonsdale Cup, the over-round has been 113%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £113 which is bet.
Lonsdale Cup Trends:
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Lonsdale Cup next time out then you would have backed a total of 8 winners. Backing all 18 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of +3.82. Remember to bookmark the racing tips page so you can get easy access to the OLBG racing picks on a daily basis.
Over the last 20 renewals, it was the John Dunlop trained Millenary ridden by T Quinn who set the fastest winning time in the Lonsdale Cup, the runner won the race in a time of 3:22.71 was set when winning the race in 2005. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer A P O'Brien and jockey Johnny Murtagh with Septimus who set the slowest winning time, the race-winning time was 3:38.82 in the 2007 renewal.
These are the top three quickest-run Lonsdale Cup over the last 20 renewals:
- 2005 - Millenary (3:22.71)
- 2003 - Bollin Eric (3:23.25)
- 2004 - First Charter (3:25.94)
Lonsdale Cup Past Winners
Here are the Lonsdale Cup past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Lonsdale Cup as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 3:27.92 | Coltrane (IRE) 6yo 9-5 (5 of 7) 11/4 | Oisin Murphy Andrew Balding (GB) |
| 2022 3:28.20 | Quickthorn (GB) 5yo 9-5 (1 of 6) 9/4 | Tom Marquand Hughie Morrison (GB) |
| 2021 3:30.87 | Stradivarius (IRE) 7yo 9-3 (1 of 4) 4/6F | Frankie Dettori John & Thady Gosden (GB) |
| 2020 3:33.57 | Enbihaar (IRE) 5yo 9-0 (2 of 7) 15/8F | Jim Crowley John Gosden (GB) |
| 2019 3:27.06 | Stradivarius (IRE) 5yo 9-6 (3 of 4) 4/9F | Frankie Dettori John Gosden (GB) |
| 2018 3:29.69 | Stradivarius (IRE) 4yo 9-6 (7 of 9) 4/11F | Frankie Dettori John Gosden (GB) |
| 2017 3:31.06 | Montaly (GB) 6yo 9-3 (4 of 9) 16/1 | P J McDonald Andrew Balding (GB) |
| 2016 3:32.57 | Quest For More (IRE) 6yo 9-3 (7 of 7) 9/2 | George Baker Roger Charlton (GB) |
| 2015 3:33.09 | Max Dynamite (FR) 5yo 9-3 (2 of 8) 8/1 | Frankie Dettori W P Mullins (IRE) |
| 2014 3:31.52 | Pale Mimosa (IRE) 5yo 9-0 (5 of 7) 2/1F | Pat Smullen D K Weld (IRE) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Lonsdale Cup have been based:
- GB: 17 winners with an additional 25 placings from 133 runners
- IRE: 3 winners with an additional 3 placings from 19 runners
- GER: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
Lonsdale Cup Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the Lonsdale Cup over the last 20 renewals is John Gosden who has won the race three times with those three winners coming from Stradivarius (2018 & 2019) and Enbihaar (2020). The only other trainer to have recorded multiple wins in the Lonsdale Cup is Andrew Balding (2 wins).
Here are some of the top Lonsdale Cup trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Gosden | 9-3-6 | -3.32 | -1.85 |
| Andrew Balding | 9-2-4 | +11.75 | +7.88 |
| W P Mullins | 9-1-3 | +0.00 | +1.53 |
| Saeed bin Suroor | 8-1-4 | -3.00 | +0.35 |
| Sir Michael Stoute | 7-1-5 | +1.00 | +2.04 |
| A P O'Brien | 4-1-2 | -1.80 | -0.08 |
| Roger Charlton | 3-1-1 | +2.50 | +0.81 |
| Marcus Tregoning | 3-1-1 | +0.50 | -0.44 |
| Hughie Morrison | 3-1-1 | +0.25 | -0.59 |
| Rod Millman | 2-1-1 | +1.75 | +0.65 |
Lonsdale Cup Jockey Statistics
The leading jockey in the Lonsdale Cup over the last 20 renewals is Frankie Dettori who has won the race seven times with those seven winners coming from Sergeant Cecil (2006), Opinion Poll (2010 & 2011), Max Dynamite (2015) and Stradivarius (2018, 2019 & 2021).
Here are some of the top Lonsdale Cup jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frankie Dettori | 12-7-8 | +14.72 | +6.98 |
| Ryan Moore | 9-1-4 | -5.50 | -2.41 |
| William Buick | 8-1-3 | +4.00 | +2.25 |
| Oisin Murphy | 5-1-3 | -1.25 | +1.56 |
| Jim Crowley | 5-1-1 | -2.12 | -2.82 |
| P J McDonald | 3-1-1 | +14.00 | +7.60 |
| Silvestre De Sousa | 3-1-2 | +2.00 | +3.40 |
| Tom Marquand | 3-1-1 | +0.25 | -0.59 |
| Jamie Spencer | 6-0-0 | -6.00 | -6.00 |
| James Doyle | 3-0-1 | -3.00 | -1.10 |
2024 Lonsdale Cup Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 1, 3, 2, 1, 1, 2, 3, 1, 9, 2, 1, 4, 4, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.
- 20 / 20 (78%) - Achieved a TS of 79+ (Last 3)
- 20 / 20 (78%) - No bigger than 16/1
- 20 / 20 (82%) - Not in a G3/Cl2-5 (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (82%) - Made 1 - 3 starts (90 Days)
- 20 / 20 (82%) - Achieved a TS of 55+ (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (82%) - No bigger than 16/1 (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (84%) - Carried 126 - 141lbs (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (85%) - Furthest ran 1m4f - 2m4f
- 20 / 20 (85%) - Ran over 1m2f - 2m2½f (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (85%) - Held an OR of 102+ (Season)
- 20 / 20 (85%) - No bigger than 16/1 (Career Win)
- 20 / 20 (86%) - Dam is not AUS/USA bred
- 20 / 20 (87%) - Made 2 - 8 starts (1 Year)
- 20 / 20 (87%) - Within the first 7 of the market
- 20 / 20 (89%) - Achieved an RPR of 106+ (Last 3)
Remember to use the trends listed above along with the York racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Lonsdale Cup. if you are unaware of what trends and statistics are, how they can be used etc then head over to the OLBG Betting School and read this Stats And Trends article which will make everything much clearer.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Lonsdale Cup by adding a tip on the race here.
Lonsdale Cup Trend Analysis
The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +12.88 is when runners last place was 1 start ago. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had a USA bred dam, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-20.
Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2023: Winner in 5 (1) [7 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 1 (5) [6 Runners]
- 2021: Winner in 1 [4 Runners]
- 2020: Winner in 2 (4) [7 Runners]
- 2019: Winner in 3 [4 Runners]
The course which has produced the most winners of the Lonsdale Cup is Goodwood, there has been a total number of 12 winners of this race who ran at Goodwood last time out.
The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 18 winners from a total of 143 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 2 winners from a total of 10 runners.
Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Lonsdale Cup:
- Sea The Stars (3 Wins)
- Halling (2 Wins)
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Lonsdale Cup despite multiple attempts:
- Galileo (0 Wins from 7 runners)
- Dansili (0 Wins from 5 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Montaly in 2017, winning for Andrew Balding at odds of 16/1 under the guidance of P J McDonald. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 9 winning favourites in the race. Whilst we wait for the 2024 Lonsdale Cup remember you can get daily racing predictions from the top racing tipsters on the best racing tipsters page.
Other Principal races during the York Ebor Festival
York Ebor festival races for Wednesday 21st August 2024
- 13:50: Symphony Group Handicap
- 14:25: Acomb Stakes
- 15:00: Great Voltigeur Stakes
- 15:35: Juddmonte International Stakes
- 16:10: York Ebor Festival Stayers Handicap
York Ebor festival races for Thursday 22nd August 2024
- 13:50: Lowther Stakes
- 14:25: Premier Yearling Stakes
- 15:00: Clipper Logistics Heritage Handicap
- 15:35: Yorkshire Oaks
- 16:10: Galtres Stakes
York Ebor festival races for Friday 23rd August 2024
- 13:50: York Ebor Festival Sky Bet Handicap
- 14:25: Lonsdale Cup
- 15:00: Gimcrack Stakes
- 15:35: Nunthorpe Stakes
York Ebor festival races for Saturday 24th August 2024
- 13:50: Strensall Stakes
- 14:25: Melrose Heritage Handicap
- 15:00: City of York Stakes
- 15:35: Ebor Handicap
- 16:45: Roses Stakes
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