Lowther Stakes Preview, Trends & Analysis

We look at the Group 2 Lowther Stakes ahead of the next renewal, a race contested over 6f at York to see which runners, trainers and jockeys have previously won the race and which trends can you use to find the winner of the Lowther Stakes.

Lowther Stakes Preview, Trends & Analysis
Lowther Stakes Preview, Trends & Analysis

2023 Lowther Stakes Preview

The Lowther Stakes features on the second day of the York Ebor Festival which takes place in August of each year, this Group 2 is open to two-year-old fillies only and is run over a trip of six furlongs. Established in 1946, it's a race in which the leading contenders are worth watching if they head to the Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket, the 2018 winner Fairyland went on to land that race after winning this one.

Lowther Stakes Content:

To see which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are tipping throughout the card that includes this race, head over to the York Betting Picks on the day of the race, do they agree with the runners on the trend shortlist or are they predicting other runners?

The runner that holds the record over the past 20 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2004 renewal when Soar from James Fanshawe who under the guidance of Johnny Murtagh, won in a time of 1:15.90, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Tiggy Wiggy, trained by Richard Hannon and ridden by Richard Hughes set the quickest time of 1:08.90 in the 2014 renewal.

These are the top three quickest-run Lowther Stakes over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2014 - Tiggy Wiggy (1:08.90)
  • 2009 - Lady Of The Desert (1:09.34)
  • 2016 - Queen Kindly (1:09.84)

How competitive is the Lowther Stakes market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2005 when the race had an over-round of 108%. The race in 2016 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 127%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Lowther Stakes, the over-round has been 116%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £116 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Lowther Stakes next time out then you would have back a total of 6 winners. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of +4.88. Remember to bookmark the racing tips page so you can get easy access to the OLBG racing picks on a daily basis.

Lowther Stakes Past Winners

Here are the Lowther Stakes past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and also the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Lowther Stakes as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse (Drawn) Info
2022
1:10.80
Swingalong (IRE)
2yo 9-2 (14 of 13) 25/1
Clifford Lee
K R Burke (GB)
2021
1:10.46
Zain Claudette (IRE)
2yo 9-0 (7 of 10) 6/1
Ray Dawson
Ismail Mohammed (GB)
2020
1:10.71
Miss Amulet (IRE)
2yo 9-0 (8 of 14) 15/2
James Doyle
K J Condon (IRE)
2019
1:10.74
Living In The Past (IRE)
2yo 9-0 (1 of 10) 12/1
Daniel Tudhope
K R Burke (GB)
2018
1:11.23
Fairyland (IRE)
2yo 9-0 (2 of 9) 6/4F
Ryan Moore
A P O'Brien (IRE)
2017
1:12.48
Threading (IRE)
2yo 9-0 (7 of 9) 9/2
James Doyle
Mark Johnston (GB)
2016
1:09.84
Queen Kindly (GB)
2yo 9-0 (4 of 8) 9/2
Jamie Spencer
Richard Fahey (GB)
2015
1:11.87
Besharah (IRE)
2yo 9-0 (7 of 9) 11/4
Pat Cosgrave
William Haggas (GB)
2014
1:08.90
Tiggy Wiggy (IRE)
2yo 9-0 (2 of 9) 15/8F
Richard Hughes
Richard Hannon (GB)
2013
1:10.58
Lucky Kristale (GB)
2yo 9-1 (9 of 9) 5/2F
Tom Queally
George Margarson (GB)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Lowther Stakes have been based:

  • GB: 18 winners with an additional 31 placings from 164 runners
  • IRE: 2 winners with an additional 5 placings from 19 runners
  • FR: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 3 runners
  • USA: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 2 runners

Lowther Stakes Trainer Statistics

There are multiple leading trainers in the Lowther Stakes over the last 20 renewals with all of Mick Channon, K R Burke & William Haggas having all won the race 2 times. Mick Channon winners have been with Flashy Wings (2005) & Nahoodh (2007). K R Burke winners have been with Living In The Past (2019) & Swingalong (2022). William Haggas winners have been with Rosdhu Queen (2012) & Besharah (2015). There is one trainer who has not had the best of times in the Lowther Stakes, Kevin Ryan has sent a total of 11 runners to the race without recording any wins.

Here are some of the top Lowther Stakes trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
Mick Channon 10-2-2 +0.41 -2.93
K R Burke 6-2-2 +33.00 +18.20
William Haggas 6-2-3 +3.25 +1.04
A P O'Brien 8-1-2 -5.50 -4.85
Richard Fahey 7-1-2 -1.50 -2.05
Brian Meehan 7-1-1 -4.37 -5.02
Mark Johnston 6-1-3 -0.50 +0.12
K J Condon 3-1-2 +5.50 +5.50
Richard Hannon 3-1-1 -0.12 -0.87
Ismail Mohammed 2-1-1 +5.00 +2.60

Lowther Stakes Jockey Statistics

There are two leading jockeys in the Lowther Stakes over the last twenty renewals with both Jamie Spencer & James Doyle who have both won the race 2 times. Jamie Spencer winners have been with Nahoodh (2007) & Queen Kindly (2016). James Doyle winners have been with Threading (2017) & Miss Amulet (2020).

Here are some of the top Lowther Stakes jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Jamie Spencer 10-2-6 +4.00 +3.90
James Doyle 3-2-2 +11.00 +6.20
Ryan Moore 11-1-2 -8.50 -8.16
Daniel Tudhope 5-1-2 +8.00 +5.30
Frankie Dettori 5-1-1 -1.00 -2.20
Tom Queally 4-1-1 -0.50 -1.50
Martin Dwyer 4-1-1 -1.37 -2.02
Ray Dawson 2-1-1 +5.00 +2.60
Clifford Lee 1-1-1 +25.00 +15.00
Pat Cosgrave 1-1-1 +2.75 +1.65

2023 Lowther Stakes Trends

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,9,1,1,5,DSQ,6,1,4,7,PU,(1,7),1,2,3,9,1,2,2,2,5

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (85%) - Achieved a TS of 55+ (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (87%) - A RPR no less than 66 (Last 3)
  • 20 / 20 (88%) - Highest placed not G1/Cl3
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - Never gone further than 6f
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - A RPR no less than 58 (Career)
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - No bigger than 33/1 (Career)
  • 19 / 20 (53%) - No bigger than 12/1
  • 19 / 20 (61%) - Achieved a RPR of 91+ (Last 3)
  • 19 / 20 (79%) - Not in SCO/FR/WAL/USA (Last Win)
  • 19 / 20 (80%) - Highest win not a Class 3
  • 19 / 20 (85%) - Had recorded a win (Career)
  • 19 / 20 (86%) - Ran in England (LTO)
  • 18 / 20 (78%) - Previously ran at least a Cl2

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the York racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Lowther Stakes. If there is anything that you do not understand in this blog, please do leave a comment or alternatively, head over to the Horse Racing Terms and Abbreviations article which is available in the OLBG Betting School section.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Lowther Stakes by adding a tip on the race here.

Lowther Stakes Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +50.04 is when runners had 3 career starts in Flat (Turf) races. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had a best in three result of 2nd, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-22.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2022: Winner in 14 (12,6) [13 Runners]
  • 2021: Winner in 7 (8,4) [10 Runners]
  • 2020: Winner in 8 (12,14) [14 Runners]
  • 2019: Winner in 1 (9,8) [10 Runners]
  • 2018: Winner in 2 (3,4) [9 Runners]

The course which has produced the most winners of the Lowther Stakes is Ascot, there has been a total number of 9 winners of this race who ran at Ascot last time out. The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Newbury, there has been a total number of 4 winners of this race who ran at Newbury last time out.

Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Lowther Stakes:

  • Exceed And Excel (3 Wins)
  • Kodiac (3 Wins)
  • Invincible Spirit (2 Wins)

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Lowther Stakes despite multiple attempts:

  • Oasis Dream (0 Wins from 8 runners)
  • Acclamation (0 Wins from 6 runners)
  • Dark Angel (0 Wins from 5 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest priced winner was Swingalong in 2022 when winning for K R Burke at odds of 25/1 under the guidance of Clifford Lee. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 6 winning favourites in the race. Remember to bookmark the best racing tipsters page so you can get easy access to the best OLBG racing tipsters.

Other Principal races during the York Ebor Festival

York Ebor festival races for Wednesday 23rd August 2023

York Ebor festival races for Thursday 24th August 2023

York Ebor festival races for Friday 25th August 2023

York Ebor festival races for Saturday 26th August 2023

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