Lowther Stakes Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (Ebor Festival)

Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.

2024 Lowther Stakes Preview

The Lowther Stakes features on the second day of the York Ebor Festival which takes place in August of each year, this Group 2 is open to two-year-old fillies only and is run over a trip of six furlongs. Established in 1946, it's a race in which the leading contenders are worth watching if they head to the Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket, the 2018 winner Fairyland went on to land that race after winning this one.

We also have a dedicated York tips page that will cover this race as well as all of the other races on the day of the race, see which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are predicting to win this race and the others on the cards. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Other Principal races during the York Ebor Festival section for links to these.

How competitive is the Lowther Stakes market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2005 when the race had an over-round of 108%. The race in 2016 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 127%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Lowther Stakes, the over-round has been 116%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £116 which is bet.

Lowther Stakes Trends:

2024 Lowther Stakes Trends
Lowther Stakes Trend Analysis

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Lowther Stakes next time out then you would have backed a total of 5 winners. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of +2.25. Remember to bookmark the racing tips page so you can get easy access to the OLBG racing picks on a daily basis.

When looking over the past 20 renewals, a time of 1:08.90 was set by Tiggy Wiggy in 2014, which is the quickest time over that period, the runner was trained by Richard Hannon and ridden by Richard Hughes. The slowest winning time was set in 2004 when Soar won in a time of 1:15.90, booked to ride was Johnny Murtagh on this James Fanshawe trained runner.

These are the top three quickest-run Lowther Stakes over the last 20 renewals:

2014 - Tiggy Wiggy (1:08.90)
2009 - Lady Of The Desert (1:09.34)
2016 - Queen Kindly (1:09.84)

Lowther Stakes Past Winners

Here are the Lowther Stakes past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Lowther Stakes as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year	Horse (Drawn)	Info
2023 1:10.89	Relief Rally (IRE) 2yo 9-2 (7 of 8) 2/1F	Tom Marquand William Haggas (GB)
2022 1:10.80	Swingalong (IRE) 2yo 9-2 (14 of 13) 25/1	Clifford Lee K R Burke (GB)
2021 1:10.46	Zain Claudette (IRE) 2yo 9-0 (7 of 10) 6/1	Ray Dawson Ismail Mohammed (GB)
2020 1:10.71	Miss Amulet (IRE) 2yo 9-0 (8 of 14) 15/2	James Doyle K J Condon (IRE)
2019 1:10.74	Living In The Past (IRE) 2yo 9-0 (1 of 10) 12/1	Daniel Tudhope K R Burke (GB)
2018 1:11.23	Fairyland (IRE) 2yo 9-0 (2 of 9) 6/4F	Ryan Moore A P O'Brien (IRE)
2017 1:12.48	Threading (IRE) 2yo 9-0 (7 of 9) 9/2	James Doyle Mark Johnston (GB)
2016 1:09.84	Queen Kindly (GB) 2yo 9-0 (4 of 8) 9/2	Jamie Spencer Richard Fahey (GB)
2015 1:11.87	Besharah (IRE) 2yo 9-0 (7 of 9) 11/4	Pat Cosgrave William Haggas (GB)
2014 1:08.90	Tiggy Wiggy (IRE) 2yo 9-0 (2 of 9) 15/8F	Richard Hughes Richard Hannon (GB)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Lowther Stakes have been based:

GB: 18 winners with an additional 30 placings from 161 runners
IRE: 2 winners with an additional 6 placings from 21 runners
FR: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 3 runners
USA: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 2 runners

Lowther Stakes Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the Lowther Stakes over the last 20 renewals is William Haggas who has won the race three times with those three winners coming from Rosdhu Queen (2012), Besharah (2015) and Relief Rally (2023). The only other trainer to have recorded multiple wins in the Lowther Stakes is K R Burke (2 wins). There is one trainer who has not had the best of times in the Lowther Stakes, Kevin Ryan has sent a total of 11 runners to the race without recording any wins.

Here are some of the top Lowther Stakes trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer	R-W-P	Win	EW
William Haggas	7-3-4	+5.25	+2.24
K R Burke	8-2-2	+31.00	+16.20
A P O'Brien	9-1-3	-6.50	-4.95
Richard Fahey	7-1-2	-1.50	-2.05
Brian Meehan	7-1-1	-4.37	-5.02
K J Condon	3-1-2	+5.50	+5.50
Richard Hannon	3-1-1	-0.12	-0.87
Ismail Mohammed	2-1-1	+5.00	+2.60
James Fanshawe	2-1-1	+1.00	+0.20
Sir Mark Prescott Bt	1-1-1	+11.00	+6.60

Lowther Stakes Jockey Statistics

There are two leading jockeys in the Lowther Stakes over the last 20 renewals with both Jamie Spencer and James Doyle who have both won the race two times. Jamie Spencer's winners have been Nahoodh (2007) and Queen Kindly (2016). James Doyle's winners have been with Threading (2017) and Miss Amulet (2020).

Here are some of the top Lowther Stakes jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey	R-W-P	Win	EW
Jamie Spencer	10-2-6	+4.00	+3.90
James Doyle	3-2-2	+11.00	+6.20
Ryan Moore	12-1-3	-9.50	-8.26
Daniel Tudhope	6-1-2	+7.00	+4.30
Tom Queally	4-1-1	-0.50	-1.50
Martin Dwyer	3-1-1	-0.37	-1.02
Clifford Lee	2-1-1	+24.00	+14.00
Ray Dawson	2-1-1	+5.00	+2.60
Tom Marquand	2-1-2	+1.00	+0.89
Pat Cosgrave	1-1-1	+2.75	+1.65

2024 Lowther Stakes Trends

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 1, 1, 5, DSQ, 6, 1, 4, 7, PU, (1, 7), 1, 2, 3, 9, 1, 2, 2, 2, 5, 1

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

20 / 20 (63%) - Achieved an RPR of 91+ (Career)
20 / 20 (78%) - No bigger than 25/1
20 / 20 (84%) - Achieved a TS of 55+ (LTO)
20 / 20 (85%) - Within the first 8 of the market
20 / 20 (87%) - Break of 6 - 78 days (Last Place)
20 / 20 (88%) - Not on HY/GS/FM/STD-SLW/FS (Debut)
20 / 20 (88%) - Highest Run is not G1/Cl3/Cl5
20 / 20 (88%) - Highest Placed is not G1/Cl3
20 / 20 (89%) - Furthest ran 5f - 6f
20 / 20 (89%) - No bigger than 33/1 (Career)
20 / 20 (89%) - Achieved an RPR of 73+ (LTO)
19 / 20 (80%) - Not in FRA/SCO/USA/WAL (Last Win)
19 / 20 (82%) - Not in a Cl3 (Last Win)
19 / 20 (82%) - Highest Won is not Cl3
18 / 20 (52%) - Beaten no more -¾ (LTO)

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the York racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Lowther Stakes. If you are looking to place on a bet this race well in advance of the actual running, then there may be an ante-post market available for you to place your bet. If you are unfamiliar with this type of betting then head over to the OLBG Betting School and read our Ante-Post Horse Racing article which explains how ante-post betting works.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Lowther Stakes by adding a tip on the race here.

Lowther Stakes Trend Analysis

The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +52.04 is when runners had 3 career starts in Flat (Turf) races. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had a best in three result of 2nd, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-20.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

2023: Winner in 7 (4,1) [8 Runners]
2022: Winner in 14 (12,6) [13 Runners]
2021: Winner in 7 (8,4) [10 Runners]
2020: Winner in 8 (12,14) [14 Runners]
2019: Winner in 1 (9,8) [10 Runners]

The course which has produced the most winners of the Lowther Stakes is Ascot, there has been a total number of 8 winners of this race who ran at Ascot last time out. The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Newbury, there has been a total number of 5 winners of this race who ran at Newbury last time out.

Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Lowther Stakes:

Kodiac (4 Wins)
Exceed And Excel (3 Wins)
Invincible Spirit (2 Wins)

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Lowther Stakes despite multiple attempts:

Oasis Dream (0 Wins from 8 runners)
Acclamation (0 Wins from 6 runners)
Dark Angel (0 Wins from 6 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Swingalong in 2022, winning for K R Burke at odds of 25/1 under the guidance of Clifford Lee. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 7 winning favourites in the race. Ahead of the 2024 Lowther Stakes why not head over to the best racing tipster page to see what the tipsters are backing today?