You know how punters get lost in too much data or bet blindly? I break down the stats and trends so you can feel confident you’re betting with more than just gut instinct.
2026 Northumberland Vase Handicap Preview
Created in 2016, the Northumberland Vase acts as a consolation race for the Northumberland Plate. That means, those who didn't get into the {late have a chance of running in this race over the same two-mile, half a furlong trip.
The race is a Class 2 Handicap run on the all-weather at Newcastle, which is open to runners aged three or older, just like the Plate; the only difference is that it carries just half of the prize money of the Plate.
For sponsorship purposes, the 2026 renewal of the Northumberland Vase will hold the title of 'Jenningsbet Festival Northumberland Vase Handicap'.
Northumberland Vase Information:
- Northumberland Vase Past Winners
- Northumberland Vase Trainer Statistics
- Northumberland Vase Jockey Statistics
We also have a dedicated Newcastle tips page that will cover this race, as well as all the other races on the day. See which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are predicting to win this race and the others on the cards. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information. Head down to the Other Principal Races at Newcastle Racecourse section for links to these.
Best Horse Racing Betting Sites 2026
How competitive is the Northumberland Vase market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 10 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2020, when the race had an over-round of 111%. The race in 2025 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 134%, whilst on average over the last 10 renewals of the Northumberland Vase, the over-round has been 124%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £124 which is bet.
Below you will find the 2026 Northumberland Vase Trends. See which patterns have occurred over the recent renewals that you may be able to use for the next renewal. We also have a section that looks at the Northumberland Vase Trend Analysis. With the field now finalised, we have the 2026 Northumberland Vase Runners & Shortlist, which is created using the listed trends.
These are the top three quickest-run Northumberland Vase races over the last 10 renewals:
- Dannyday (3:29.87) in 2016
- Cosmelli (3:31.84) in 2018
- Carnwennan (3:32.97) in 2019
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? Over the past 10 renewals, if you had followed the winner of the Northumberland Vase next time out, then you would have backed a total of 0 winners. Backing all 10 runners who have been out since their win at SP next time out would have returned an LSP of -10.00. Before placing your bet on the 2026 Northumberland Vase, see which other runners today are being backed on the racing predictions page.
When looking over the past 10 renewals, a time of 3:29.87 was set by Dannyday in 2016, trained by Sir Michael Stoute and ridden by Ted Durcan, which is the quickest time over that period. The slowest winning time was set in 2024 when Alphonse Le Grande won in a time of 3:41.66 for trainer Mrs C O'Leary, who booked Hollie Doyle in the saddle.
What the expert says...
Andy Powell - Horse Racing Betting Expert - OLBG.com
Northumberland Vase Past Winners
Here are the Northumberland Vase past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the race year, the winning horse, and the horse's age & weight. Also detailed is the stall from which the horse came and the total number of runners in the race. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the Northumberland Vase are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 3:39.65 | Savrola (IRE) 6yo 9-0 (10 of 19) 10/1 | Connor Beasley Dianne Sayer (GB) |
| 2024 3:41.66 | Alphonse Le Grande (IRE) 5yo 9-10 (12 of 14) 3/1F | Hollie Doyle Mrs C O'Leary (IRE) |
| 2023 3:35.24 | La Hacienda (GB) 6yo 9-8 (6 of 14) 11/1 | Harry Davies (3lbs) Matthew J Smith (IRE) |
| 2022 3:40.81 | Zoffee (GB) 6yo 9-9 (6 of 18) 16/1 | Ben Curtis Hugo Palmer (GB) |
| 2021 3:37.10 | Zeeband (IRE) 4yo 9-8 (2 of 19) 4/1 | Andrea Atzeni Roger Varian (GB) |
| 2020 3:40.48 | Mondain (GB) 4yo 9-10 (4 of 7) 4/1 | Joe Fanning Mark Johnston (GB) |
| 2019 3:32.97 | Carnwennan (IRE) 4yo 9-3 (5 of 15) 7/2F | Stevie Donohoe Charlie Fellowes (GB) |
| 2018 3:31.84 | Cosmelli (ITY) 5yo 9-7 (19 of 19) 33/1 | Daniel Muscutt Gay Kelleway (GB) |
| 2017 3:41.44 | London Prize (GB) 6yo 9-9 (11 of 12) 7/4F | Fran Berry Ian Williams (GB) |
| 2016 3:29.87 | Dannyday (GB) 4yo 9-8 (16 of 20) 7/2F | Ted Durcan Sir Michael Stoute (GB) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Northumberland Vase have been based:
- GB: 8 winners with an additional 24 placings from 152 runners
- IRE: 2 winners with an additional 0 placings from 4 runners
- HK: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
Northumberland Vase Trainer Statistics
Here are the Northumberland Vase trainer statistics over the last 10 renewals for trainers who have entries in the 2026 renewal; those not listed have not had a runner. (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Williams | 10-1-2 | -7.25 | -5.91 |
| Dianne Sayer | 1-1-1 | +10.00 | +6.25 |
| Brian Ellison | 8-0-0 | -8.00 | -8.00 |
| Andrew Balding | 6-0-2 | -6.00 | -0.49 |
| Tim Easterby | 6-0-0 | -6.00 | -6.00 |
| Charlie Johnston | 5-0-0 | -5.00 | -5.00 |
| Iain Jardine | 4-0-2 | -4.00 | -0.93 |
| Alan King | 3-0-1 | -3.00 | -1.62 |
| Hughie Morrison | 3-0-0 | -3.00 | -3.00 |
| Adrian Paul Keatley | 2-0-0 | -2.00 | -2.00 |
Northumberland Vase Jockey Statistics
Here are the Northumberland Vase jockey statistics over the last 10 renewals for jockeys who have rides in the 2026 renewal; those not listed have not had a runner. (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Beasley (Laafy) | 4-1-1 | +7.00 | +3.25 |
| Daniel Muscutt (Sax Appeal) | 1-1-1 | +33.00 | +20.63 |
| Paul Mulrennan (Savrola) | 7-0-3 | -7.00 | -1.74 |
| Luke Morris (Hermetic) | 6-0-0 | -6.00 | -6.00 |
| David Allan (Treasure Islands) | 4-0-0 | -4.00 | -4.00 |
| Andrew Mullen (Haveyoumissedme) | 2-0-1 | -2.00 | -0.37 |
| Dougie Costello (Arc Zoosve) | 2-0-0 | -2.00 | -2.00 |
| Rob Hornby (Shrimp Shady) | 1-0-1 | -1.00 | +2.63 |
| Sam James (Fast Fred) | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| Cieren Fallon (Artisan Dancer) | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| Rhys Elliott (Clansman) | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| Ray Dawson (Brosna Town) | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
2026 Northumberland Vase Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 1, 1, 17, 1, 3, 15, 4, 8, 1, 7
The percentage shown is the proportion of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones, as you would expect them to do well.
- 10 / 10 (58%) - Ran in 1 - 3 races (Season)
- 10 / 10 (58%) - Had 2 - 4 wins (Hcps)
- 10 / 10 (58%) - Had 3 - 9 placings (Hcps)
- 10 / 10 (63%) - Had 3 - 11 placings (Career)
- 10 / 10 (69%) - Ran in 4 - 21 races (Hcps)
- 10 / 10 (71%) - Break of 20 - 337 days (Last Win)
- 10 / 10 (71%) - Not on HY/SFT/GS/FS (Debut)
- 10 / 10 (72%) - Ran in 6 - 28 races (Career)
- 10 / 10 (73%) - Achieved an RPR of 76+ (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (76%) - Fewer than 2 placings (Class)
- 10 / 10 (76%) - Achieved a TS of 59+ (Last 3)
- 10 / 10 (76%) - Had 2 - 6 wins (Career)
- 10 / 10 (77%) - Beaten no more -12½l (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (78%) - No older than a 6yo
- 10 / 10 (78%) - Won within last 6 starts
Remember to use the trends listed above, along with the Newcastle racing predictions, to see if you can find the winner of the Northumberland Vase. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles covering numerous topics.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, it is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Northumberland Vase by adding a tip on the race here.
101 Ways to find Winners in Horse Racing
2026 Northumberland Vase Runners & Shortlist
Newcastle will host the 2026 renewal of the Northumberland Vase, which will be run at 2:40 pm on Saturday, 27th June 2026, and these are the runners who perform best based on the trends, along with the trainer, jockey and their record in the race (Runs-Wins-Places Win LSP / EW LSP):
- 15/15 Believitanducan (10/3)
- Alan King (3-0-1 -3.00 / -1.62)
- William Buick (0-0-0 0.00 / 0.00)
Others: Shrimp Shady (13/15), Treasure Islands (13/15), Arc Zoosve (12/15), Boxing Great (12/15), Chemistry (11/15), Laafy (9/15), Brosna Town (8/15), Day Trader (8/15), Fast Fred (8/15), Hermetic (8/15), Savrola (8/15), St Faz (8/15), Alphonse Le Grande (7/15), Clansman (7/15), Premiere Ligne (7/15), Sax Appeal (6/15), Haveyoumissedme (5/15), Artisan Dancer (4/15) and Charging Thunder (4/15).
*Trainer & Jockey numbers are Runs-Wins-Places Win LSP / EW LSP, Runners, Odds and Trends Passed/Failed correct at the time of posting (12:56 pm Friday 26th June 2026), if no odds were available at the time of posting, then forecasted odds are used.
Northumberland Vase Trend Analysis
✅ The trend factor, which has produced 5+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +29.50, is when runners had 1 start in the past 90 days.
❌ The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 0 wins in the past year, when backing these, the trend shows a record of 0-36.
Here are the most recent winning draws, along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2025: Winner in 10 (5,12,16) [19 Runners]
- 2024: Winner in 12 (13,4) [14 Runners]
- 2023: Winner in 6 (4,1) [14 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 6 (14,15,10) [18 Runners]
- 2021: Winner in 2 (3,11,13) [19 Runners]
The course which has produced the most winners of the Northumberland Vase is Chelmsford (AW); there have been a total of 3 winners of this race who ran at Chelmsford (AW) last time out.
The race is open to both sexes, with male runners having produced a total of 9 winners from a total of 144 runners, while female runners have produced 1 winner from a total of 13 runners.
Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Northumberland Vase; that stallion, Sea The Stars, has produced 2 winners (2024,2021).
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Northumberland Vase despite multiple attempts:
- Champs Elysees (0 Wins from 7 runners)
- Nathaniel (0 Wins from 7 runners)
- Galileo (0 Wins from 6 runners)
- High Chaparral (0 Wins from 5 runners)
- Mastercraftsman (0 Wins from 5 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 10 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Cosmelli in 2018, winning for Gay Kelleway at odds of 33/1 under the guidance of Daniel Muscutt. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 10 renewals, there have been 4 winning favourites in the race. Remember to use the best racing tipsters along with the information on this page to find a bet on the 2026 Northumberland Vase.
Route to the Northumberland Vase
Many trainers target races as preparation for the Northumberland Vase. These are the races which the recent winners ran in before coming here:
| Info | Last Race |
|---|---|
| 2025 - Savrola Hamilton - 2nd of 11 (6/1) | Sky Bet, For The Fans Handicap |
| 2024 - Alphonse Le Grande Chester - 1st of 16 (19/2) | Duke Of Westminster Supporting The Chester Plate Handicap |
| 2023 - La Hacienda Down Royal - 3rd of 6 (23/1) | His Majestys Plate |
| 2022 - Zoffee Carlisle - 1st of 5 (11/8) | Wiggonby Handicap |
| 2021 - Zeeband Newmarket (Rowley) - 3rd of 7 (3/1) | WSG Promotions Handicap |
| 2020 - Mondain Chelmsford (AW) - 9th of 9 (13/2) | Chatham Green Handicap |
| 2019 - Carnwennan Chelmsford (AW) - 1st of 7 (11/8) | Bet totetrifecta At totesport.com Handicap |
| 2018 - Cosmelli Kempton (AW) - 8th of 13 (33/1) | 32Red Handicap |
| 2017 - London Prize Goodwood - 1st of 9 (7/4) | Maywal Handicap |
| 2016 - Dannyday Chelmsford (AW) - 1st of 7 (7/4) | YMCA President, Lady Ruggles-Brises Handicap |
Article Contributor Information
We are fortunate to have an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to the creation and maintenance of this Northumberland Vase Preview are Andy and James. They both work on the Horse Racing Tips team, overseeing the tipsters and managing the tip settlement, while also creating and managing all the horse racing event previews for Flat racing.
James Banting
Expert Guide
Andy Powell
Expert Guide
Other Principal races at Newcastle Racecourse
Here are some other notable races at the Newcastle racecourse throughout the racing season that you may be interested in.
Races in February
Races in April (AWC Finals Day)
- All-Weather 3yo Championships
- All-Weather Easter Classic
- All-Weather Easter Plate
- All-Weather Fillies & Mares Championships
- All-Weather Mile Championships
- All-Weather Sprint Championships
- Burradon Stakes
