Northumberland Plate Preview, Trends & Analysis

Updated: 2103 Horse Racing

We look at the Northumberland Plate ahead of the next renewal, a race contested over 2m½f at Newcastle to see which runners, trainers and jockeys have previously won the race and which trends you can use to find the winner of the Northumberland Plate.

Northumberland Plate Preview, Trends & Analysis
Andy Powell Content Editor

Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.

2024 Northumberland Plate Preview

Established in 1833, the Northumberland Plate was for the majority of its history run on turf, that was until 2016 when the turf course at Newcastle was scrapped and replaced with an all-weather (Tapeta) track which is now the home of the Northumberland Plate.

Tomboy won the inaugural running which was staged at Killingworth, the race was moved to its current home at Gosforth Park in 1882, and the race was very popular amongst local miners who gave it the name of the Pitmen's Derby.

The race is one of the richest handicaps in the world run over the two-mile trip and is currently sponsored by Betfair with the race being open to runners aged three or older.

Northumberland Plate Information:

We also have a dedicated Newcastle tips page that will cover this race as well as all of the other races on the day of the race, see which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are predicting to win this race and the others on the cards. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Other Principal Races at Newcastle Racecourse section for links to these.

How competitive is the Northumberland Plate market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2009 when the race had an over-round of 124%. The race in 2018 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 138%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Northumberland Plate, the over-round has been 130%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £130 which is bet.

Northumberland Plate Trends:

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Northumberland Plate next time out then you would have backed a total of 1 winner. Backing all 17 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -10.00. Remember to bookmark the racing tips page so you can get easy access to the OLBG racing picks on a daily basis.

The runner that holds the record over the past 20 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2012 renewal when Ile De Re from Donald McCain under the guidance of Jim Crowley, won in a time of 3:53.94, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Quest For More, trained by Roger Charlton and ridden by George Baker set the quickest time of 3:26.53 in the 2015 renewal.

These are the top three quickest-run Northumberland Plate over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2015 - Quest For More (3:26.53)
  • 2006 - Toldo (3:27.48)
  • 2010 - Overturn (3:28.05)

Northumberland Plate Past Winners

Here are the Northumberland Plate past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and also the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Northumberland Plate as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse (Drawn) Info
2023
3:31.40
Calling The Wind (IRE)
7yo 9-4 (14 of 19) 14/1
Neil Callan
Richard Hughes (GB)
2022
3:39.75
Trueshan (FR)
6yo 10-8 (10 of 20) 3/1F
Hollie Doyle
Alan King (GB)
2021
3:31.88
Nicholas T (GB)
9yo 8-10 (17 of 20) 33/1
Ben Robinson
Jim Goldie (GB)
2020
3:33.21
Caravan Of Hope (IRE)
4yo 8-5 (17 of 18) 9/2F
Harry Bentley
Hugo Palmer (GB)
2019
3:33.14
Who Dares Wins (IRE)
7yo 9-1 (7 of 19) 12/1
Tom Marquand
Alan King (GB)
2018
3:33.56
Withhold (GB)
5yo 9-1 (11 of 20) 5/1F
Robert Winston
Roger Charlton (GB)
2017
3:35.37
Higher Power (GB)
5yo 9-9 (13 of 20) 11/2
Tom Queally
James Fanshawe (GB)
2016
3:30.91
Antiquarium (IRE)
4yo 9-5 (3 of 20) 16/1
James McDonald
Charlie Appleby (GB)
2015
3:26.53
Quest For More (IRE)
5yo 9-4 (3 of 19) 15/2
George Baker
Roger Charlton (GB)
2014
3:28.96
Angel Gabrial (IRE)
5yo 8-12 (1 of 19) 4/1F
George Chaloner (3lbs)
Richard Fahey (GB)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Northumberland Plate have been based:

  • GB: 19 winners with an additional 58 placings from 366 runners
  • IRE: 1 winner with an additional 2 placings from 13 runners
  • FR: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner

Northumberland Plate Trainer Statistics

There are multiple leading trainers in the Northumberland Plate over the last 20 renewals with all of Alan King, Donald McCain and Roger Charlton having all won the race two times. Alan King winners have been with Who Dares Wins (2019) and Trueshan (2022). Donald McCain's winners have been Overturn (2010) and Ile De Re (2012). Roger Charlton winners have been with Quest For More (2015) and Withhold (2018). There are multiple trainers who have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Northumberland Plate, Mark Johnston (0-32), Brian Ellison (0-19), Tim Easterby (0-12), Ian Williams (0-12) and Amanda Perrett (0-10) have all failed to produce a single winner despite sending multiple runners to the race.

Here are some of the top Northumberland Plate trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
Alan King 11-2-2 +6.00 +0.38
Donald McCain 5-2-2 +13.50 +7.31
Roger Charlton 3-2-3 +11.50 +8.26
Richard Fahey 19-1-4 -14.00 -9.94
Jim Goldie 11-1-3 +23.00 +15.63
Hugo Palmer 7-1-4 -1.50 +3.94
James Fanshawe 6-1-2 +0.50 +0.00
Michael Bell 5-1-1 +1.00 -0.87
Mick Channon 3-1-2 +14.00 +10.75
Charlie Appleby 3-1-1 +14.00 +8.00

Northumberland Plate Jockey Statistics

There are multiple jockeys who have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Northumberland Plate, Joe Fanning (0-14), Tom Eaves (0-12), Paul Mulrennan (0-11) and David Allan (0-10) have all failed to produce a single winner despite sending multiple rides to the race.

Here are some of the top Northumberland Plate jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Paul Hanagan 16-1-4 +18.00 +10.63
Luke Morris 10-1-4 -4.00 -0.53
Graham Lee 9-1-2 +0.00 +0.00
Jim Crowley 7-1-2 -3.50 +1.06
Neil Callan 4-1-4 +11.00 +11.44
Tom Queally 4-1-1 +2.50 +0.44
Tom Marquand 3-1-1 +10.00 +5.50
Ben Robinson 2-1-1 +32.00 +19.63
Hollie Doyle 2-1-1 +2.00 +0.88
James McDonald 1-1-1 +16.00 +10.00

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 3, 11, (3, 9), 1, 18, 7, 5, 15, 1, (17, 3), 1, 6, 2, 3, 1, 10, 1, 6, 1, (2, 4)

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (76%) - No bigger than 16/1 (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (77%) - Had 6 - 22 placings (Career)
  • 20 / 20 (82%) - Not +3-6lbs vs average weight
  • 20 / 20 (82%) - Beaten no more -14½l (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (82%) - No bigger than 33/1
  • 20 / 20 (88%) - Sex is not Colt/Horse/Mare
  • 20 / 20 (88%) - Off a break of 11 - 259 days
  • 20 / 20 (88%) - Highest Run is not G2/Cl4
  • 20 / 20 (88%) - Achieved an RPR of 77+ (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - Achieved an RPR of 95+ (Career)
  • 19 / 20 (65%) - Finished first five (LTO)
  • 19 / 20 (88%) - Not at York (LTO)
  • 18 / 20 (73%) - Last win not on GF or Firm
  • 18 / 20 (77%) - Won by at least ½l (Last Win)
  • 18 / 20 (85%) - Previously placed over 1m6f+

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Newcastle racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Northumberland Plate. You may want to do your own research into the race, there are times when there are a number of runners who pass the trends so you need to do your own research to find a bet, we have a Horse Racing Form Reading Made Easy & What to Look For article to help you do just this in the OLBG Betting School section.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Northumberland Plate by adding a tip on the race here.

Northumberland Plate Trend Analysis

The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +37.00 is when runners ran in a race restricted to 3yo+ when last winning. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners ran in a field of 7 when last winning, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-43.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2023: Winner in 14 (10,18,11) [19 Runners]
  • 2022: Winner in 10 (8,6,16) [20 Runners]
  • 2021: Winner in 17 (15,19,14) [20 Runners]
  • 2020: Winner in 17 (12,19,16) [18 Runners]
  • 2019: Winner in 7 (8,17,6) [19 Runners]

The course which has produced the most winners of the Northumberland Plate is Chester, there has been a total number of 4 winners of this race who ran at Chester last time out. The next best courses which have produced the second most winners are Ascot and Haydock, there has been a total number of 3 winners from each of those courses.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 19 winners from a total of 361 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 1 winner from a total of 19 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Northumberland Plate, that stallion Generous has produced 2 winners (2013,2011).

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Northumberland Plate despite multiple attempts:

  • Montjeu (0 Wins from 9 runners)
  • Halling (0 Wins from 8 runners)
  • In The Wings (0 Wins from 8 runners)
  • Galileo (0 Wins from 7 runners)
  • Sadlers Wells (0 Wins from 7 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Nicholas T in 2021, winning for Jim Goldie at odds of 33/1 under the guidance of Ben Robinson. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 6 winning favourites in the race. Whilst we wait for the 2024 Northumberland Plate remember you can get daily racing predictions from the top racing tipsters on the best racing tipsters page.

Other Principal races at Newcastle racecourse

Here are some other notable races at the Newcastle racecourse throughout the racing season that you may be interested in.

Races in February

Races in November

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