2022 July Cup Preview, Trends & Analysis

Published: Jul 7, 2:11pm Last Updated: Jul 11, 12:45pm Horse Racing 0 Comments 643 Views

2022 July Cup Preview

Established in 1876, the July Cup is a Group 1 flat race run at the Newmarket July course during the July Festival. The race is open to runners aged three years old or older and is run over a straight six furlongs. Three-year-old runners have to carry 9-0 whilst the older runners carry 9-6 with any fillies and mares getting a 3lb allowance.

The race, currently known as the Darley July Cup is considered by many as the best sprint race in Britain with the winner known as the champion sprinter of Europe. We also have a dedicated Newmarket Betting Picks page that will cover this race as well as all of the other races on the day of the race, see which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are predicting to win this race and the others on the cards.

Over the last 20 renewals, it was the Clive Cox trained Lethal Force ridden by Adam Kirby who has set the fastest winning time in the July Cup, the runner won the race in a time of 1:09.11 that was set when winning the race in 2013. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer Richard Fahey and jockey Paul Hanagan with Mayson who set the slowest winning time, the race-winning time was 1:15.90 in the 2012 renewal.

These are the top three quickest run July Cup over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2013 - Lethal Force (1:09.11)
  • 2019 - Ten Sovereigns (1:09.31)
  • 2015 - Muhaarar (1:09.34)

How competitive is the July Cup market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2013 when the race had an over-round of 117%. The race in 2004 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 131%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the July Cup, the over-round has been 123% that means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £123 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the July Cup next time out then you would have back a total of 4 winners. Backing all 18 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -9.16. Ahead of the 2022 July Cup why not head over to the racing predictions for tips on other races today.

July Cup Past Ten Winners

Here are the past 10 winners of the July Cup. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall which the horse came from and also the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the July Cup as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse (Drawn) Info
2021
1:10.11
Starman
4yo 9-6 (4 of 19) 9/2
Tom Marquand
Ed Walker
2020
1:09.59
Oxted
4yo 9-6 (9 of 12) 12/1
Cieren Fallon
Roger Teal
2019
1:09.31
Ten Sovereigns
3yo 9-0 (12 of 12) 9/2
Ryan Moore
A P O'Brien
2018
1:11.32
U S Navy Flag
3yo 9-0 (12 of 13) 8/1
Ryan Moore
A P O'Brien
2017
1:11.25
Harry Angel
3yo 9-0 (6 of 10) 9/2
Adam Kirby
Clive Cox
2016
1:09.97
Limato
4yo 9-6 (16 of 18) 9/2F
Harry Bentley
Henry Candy
2015
1:09.34
Muhaarar
3yo 9-0 (7 of 14) 2/1F
Paul Hanagan
Charles Hills
2014
1:12.40
Slade Power
5yo 9-6 (13 of 13) 7/4F
Wayne Lordan
Edward Lynam
2013
1:09.11
Lethal Force
4yo 9-5 (4 of 11) 9/2
Adam Kirby
Clive Cox
2012
1:15.90
Mayson
4yo 9-5 (11 of 12) 20/1
Paul Hanagan
Richard Fahey

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the July Cup have been based:

  • GB: 15 winners with an additional 32 placings from 215 runners
  • IRE: 4 winners with an additional 5 placings from 38 runners
  • FR: 1 winner with an additional 0 placings from 8 runners
  • AUS: 0 winners with an additional 2 placings from 13 runners
  • USA: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 5 runners
  • SAF: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 3 runners
  • GER: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 3 runners
  • JPN: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 2 runners
  • SIN: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 2 runners
  • HK: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 2 runners
  • SPA: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner

July Cup Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the July Cup over the last 20 renewals is A P O'Brien who has won the race 3 times. Those 3 winners came from Starspangledbanner (2010), U S Navy Flag (2018) & Ten Sovereigns (2019). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the July Cup are Clive Cox (2 wins) & Hughie Morrison (2 wins). There is one trainer who has not had the best of times in the July Cup, Kevin Ryan has sent a total of 15 runners to the race without recording any wins.

Here are some of the top July Cup trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
A P O'Brien 27-3-6 -9.50 -7.35
Clive Cox 7-2-3 +4.00 +1.10
Hughie Morrison 3-2-2 +25.50 +12.25
Richard Fahey 7-1-2 +14.00 +11.50
James Fanshawe 7-1-3 +8.00 +2.90
John Gosden 7-1-2 -1.50 -2.05
Henry Candy 7-1-3 -1.50 -2.35
Charles Hills 6-1-1 -3.00 -3.80
Edward Lynam 6-1-2 -3.25 -1.85
Roger Teal 2-1-2 +11.00 +6.70

July Cup Jockey Statistics

There are multiple leading jockeys in the July Cup over the last 20 renewals with all of Ryan Moore, Paul Hanagan, Adam Kirby & J F Egan having all won the race 2 times. Ryan Moore winners have been with U S Navy Flag (2018) & Ten Sovereigns (2019). Paul Hanagan winners have been with Mayson (2012) & Muhaarar (2015). Adam Kirby winners have been with Lethal Force (2013) & Harry Angel (2017). J F Egan winners have been with Pastoral Pursuits (2005) & Les Arcs (2006). There is one jockey who has not had the best of times in the July Cup, Frankie Dettori has had a total of 16 rides to the race without recording any wins.

Here are some of the top July Cup jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Ryan Moore 13-2-4 +1.50 -0.75
Paul Hanagan 6-2-2 +18.00 +9.20
Adam Kirby 5-2-3 +6.00 +3.10
J F Egan 3-2-2 +31.00 +16.00
Wayne Lordan 6-1-3 -3.25 +3.65
Tom Queally 4-1-1 +9.00 +4.20
Cieren Fallon 2-1-2 +11.00 +6.70
Hayley Turner 2-1-1 +6.00 +2.50
Tom Marquand 1-1-1 +4.50 +2.25
Frankie Dettori 16-0-3 -16.00 -13.29

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,3,2,19,(4,13),7,6,1,10,1,10,3,4,1,(1,7),1,4,7,2,3,2

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (78%) - No more than 1 start at track
  • 20 / 20 (80%) - Avoid course winners
  • 20 / 20 (80%) - 3-13 Placings on turf
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - 2-8 Wins on turf
  • 19 / 20 (71%) - No more than 20 starts
  • 19 / 20 (75%) - Top two finish within last 3
  • 19 / 20 (77%) - Aged between 3yo - 5yo
  • 19 / 20 (79%) - Never ran off bigger than 50/1
  • 18 / 20 (43%) - No bigger than 14/1

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Newmarket racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the July Cup. if you are unaware of what trends and statistics are, how they can be used etc then head over to the OLBG Betting School and have a read of this Stats And Trends article which will make everything much clearer.

Are you a member on OLBG? If not, then why not! With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then why share your thoughts on the July Cup by adding a tip on the race here.

July Cup Trend Analysis

The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 1 career win at the track, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-47.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2021: Winner in 4 (6,16) [19 Runners]
  • 2020: Winner in 9 (11,6) [12 Runners]
  • 2019: Winner in 12 (8,4) [12 Runners]
  • 2018: Winner in 12 (4,11) [13 Runners]
  • 2017: Winner in 6 (1,4) [10 Runners]

The course which has produced the most winners of the July Cup is Ascot, there has been a total number of 14 winners of this race who ran at Ascot last time out.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 18 winners from a total of 269 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 2 winners from a total of 23 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, These are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the July Cup:

  • Dark Angel (2 Wins)
  • Dutch Art (2 Wins)
  • Invincible Spirit (2 Wins)

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the July Cup despite multiple attempts:

  • Pivotal (0 Wins from 12 runners)
  • Shinko Forest (0 Wins from 6 runners)
  • Acclamation (0 Wins from 5 runners)
  • Danehill (0 Wins from 5 runners)
  • Danzig (0 Wins from 5 runners)
  • Shamardal (0 Wins from 5 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest priced winner was Pastoral Pursuits in 2005 when winning for Hughie Morrison at odds of 22/1 under the guidance of J F Egan. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 5 winning favourites in the race. Remember to use the best racing tipsters along with the information on this page to find you a bet on the 2022 July Cup.

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