Newmarket Stakes Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (Guineas Festival)

Updated: 605 Horse Racing

See which trainers and jockeys have performed well in this fact-packed blog for the Newmarket Stakes. This is a race that is hosted at Newmarket during the Guineas Festival with the race being run over a distance of 1m2f, see which trends the past winners of the Newmarket Stakes have set for this year.

Newmarket Stakes Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (Guineas Festival)
Andy Powell Content Editor

Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.

2024 Newmarket Stakes Preview

The current version of this race was introduced in 1978 although there was an earlier version that was disbanded after failing to attract field numbers and then it started up again in 1889 and that version stopped in the early 1960s.

This Newmarket Stakes holds a Listed status and is restricted only to three-year-old colts and geldings and is run over a distance of one mile and two furlongs and features during the Newmarket Guineas Festival in late April or early May.

Newmarket Stakes Information:

If you are interested in other predictions at Newmarket then head over to the Newmarket tips page to see which runners are being supported by the OLBG racing tipsters and also compare those predictions to the runners that make the trend shortlist when added below. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Other Principal Races at Newmarket Racecourse section for links to these.

How competitive is the Newmarket Stakes market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2023 when the race had an over-round of 103%. The race in 2009 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 118%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Newmarket Stakes, the over-round has been 111%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £111 which is bet.

Newmarket Stakes Trends:

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Newmarket Stakes next time out then you would have backed a total of 4 winners. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of +9.38. Remember to bookmark the racing tips page so you can get easy access to the OLBG racing picks on a daily basis.

Over the last 20 renewals, it was the John Gosden trained Mishriff ridden by David Egan who set the fastest winning time in the Newmarket Stakes, the runner won the race in a time of 2:00.85 was set when winning the race in 2020. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer Sir Henry Cecil and jockey Tom Queally with Noble Mission who set the slowest winning time, the race-winning time was 2:11.45 in the 2012 renewal.

These are the top three quickest-run Newmarket Stakes over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2020 - Mishriff (2:00.85)
  • 2007 - Helene Mascot (2:03.15)
  • 2005 - Rocamadour (2:03.36)

Newmarket Stakes Past Winners

Here are the Newmarket Stakes past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and also the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Newmarket Stakes as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse (Drawn) Info
2023
2:04.66
Castle Way (GB)
3yo 9-2 (1 of 7) 7/1
William Buick
Charlie Appleby (GB)
2022
2:05.73
Nations Pride (IRE)
3yo 9-0 (4 of 4) 7/4
William Buick
Charlie Appleby (GB)
2021
2:04.74
Mohaafeth (IRE)
3yo 9-0 (1 of 4) 2/1
Jim Crowley
William Haggas (GB)
2020
2:00.85
Mishriff (IRE)
3yo 9-0 (2 of 9) 10/1
David Egan
John Gosden (GB)
2019
2:06.02
UAE Jewel (GB)
3yo 9-0 (2 of 4) 8/11F
David Egan
Roger Varian (GB)
2018
2:05.30
Key Victory (IRE)
3yo 9-0 (4 of 8) 5/4F
William Buick
Charlie Appleby (GB)
2017
2:03.66
Permian (IRE)
3yo 9-0 (2 of 5) 5/2
Ryan Moore
Mark Johnston (GB)
2016
2:04.82
Hawkbill (USA)
3yo 9-0 (1 of 8) 14/1
William Buick
Charlie Appleby (GB)
2015
2:05.76
Best Of Times (GB)
3yo 9-0 (1 of 6) 9/4F
James Doyle
Saeed bin Suroor (GB)
2014
2:04.89
Helene Happy Star (IRE)
3yo 9-0 (1 of 8) 14/1
Richard Hughes
Richard Hannon (GB)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Newmarket Stakes have been based:

  • GB: 20 winners with an additional 19 placings from 116 runners
  • IRE: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 3 runners

Newmarket Stakes Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the Newmarket Stakes over the last 20 renewals is Charlie Appleby who has won the race four times with those four winners coming from Hawkbill (2016), Key Victory (2018), Nations Pride (2022) and Castle Way (2023). The only other trainer to have recorded multiple wins in the Newmarket Stakes is Mark Johnston (2 wins).

Here are some of the top Newmarket Stakes trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
Charlie Appleby 10-4-7 +18.00 +11.50
Mark Johnston 7-2-2 -1.70 -1.94
John Gosden 17-1-2 -6.00 -7.43
Andrew Balding 6-1-1 +11.00 +6.00
Saeed bin Suroor 6-1-1 -2.75 -3.59
Richard Hannon 5-1-1 +10.00 +5.40
William Haggas 5-1-3 -2.00 -1.93
Mick Channon 3-1-1 -0.25 +1.09
Marcus Tregoning 2-1-2 +3.00 +2.50
Roger Varian 2-1-1 -0.27 +0.00

Newmarket Stakes Jockey Statistics

The leading jockey in the Newmarket Stakes over the last 20 renewals is William Buick who has won the race four times with those four winners coming from Hawkbill (2016), Key Victory (2018), Nations Pride (2022) and Castle Way (2023). The only other jockey to have recorded multiple wins in the Newmarket Stakes is David Egan (2 wins).

Here are some of the top Newmarket Stakes jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
William Buick 12-4-5 +16.00 +7.63
David Egan 3-2-2 +9.73 +6.00
Frankie Dettori 14-1-4 -11.25 -8.61
Ryan Moore 9-1-2 -5.50 -2.13
James Doyle 6-1-2 -2.75 -2.87
Joe Fanning 4-1-1 -2.20 -1.50
Jim Crowley 3-1-1 +0.00 -2.00
Mickael Barzalona 2-1-2 +3.00 +2.65
Martin Dwyer 2-1-2 +3.00 +2.50
Shane Kelly 1-1-1 +6.50 +4.06

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 5, 2, 2, 2, 1, 3, 2, 6, 1, 1, (4, 5), 1, 3, 3, 1, 1, 3, 2, 3, 3

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (61%) - Achieved an RPR of 96+ (Last 3)
  • 20 / 20 (78%) - Achieved an RPR of 86+ (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (78%) - Highest Placed is not G1/G2/G3/Cl5
  • 20 / 20 (83%) - No bigger than 16/1
  • 20 / 20 (83%) - Carried 120 - 131lbs (Last Win)
  • 20 / 20 (83%) - Not in a G1/G2/Cl5 (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (84%) - Not on HY/STD (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (85%) - Not in FRA/IRL/ITA/SCO (Last Win)
  • 20 / 20 (86%) - Furthest Won 7f - 1m2f
  • 20 / 20 (86%) - Highest Run is not G2/Cl5
  • 20 / 20 (87%) - Achieved a TS of 62+ (Last 3)
  • 20 / 20 (88%) - Fewer than 2 starts (Higher Class)
  • 19 / 20 (88%) - No bigger than 33/1 (Career)
  • 18 / 20 (81%) - Placed within last 2 starts
  • 18 / 20 (81%) - Within the first 5 of market

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Newmarket racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Newmarket Stakes. Maybe you are looking to back something in this race on the tote, but you are not sure of the process or how the tote works, No problem! We have an article which is dedicated to The Tote for you to read which explains everything you need to know! Be sure to check out the other articles too in the OLBG Betting School.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Newmarket Stakes by adding a tip on the race here.

Newmarket Stakes Trend Analysis

The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +25.75 is when runners ran in a Class 4 on debut. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners were 3rd in the betting market, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-20.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2023: Winner in 1 (2) [7 Runners]
  • 2022: Winner in 4 [4 Runners]
  • 2021: Winner in 1 [4 Runners]
  • 2020: Winner in 2 (9,8) [9 Runners]
  • 2019: Winner in 2 [4 Runners]

The course which has produced the most winners of the Newmarket Stakes is Newmarket (Rowley), there has been a total number of 11 winners of this race who ran at Newmarket (Rowley) last time out. The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Newbury, there has been a total number of 3 winners of this race who ran at Newbury last time out.

Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Newmarket Stakes:

  • Teofilo (3 Wins)
  • Cape Cross (2 Wins)
  • Dubawi (2 Wins)
  • Rock Of Gibraltar (2 Wins)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Treasure Lands in 2010, winning for Andrew Balding at odds of 16/1 under the guidance of Jimmy Fortune. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 6 winning favourites in the race. Before placing your bet on the 2024 Newmarket Stakes head over to see which other runners today are being backed by the best racing tipsters today.

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