Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.
2025 Dahlia Stakes Preview
Scheduled to take place in May of each year at the Newmarket racecourse is the Dahlia Stakes which takes place during the Guineas Festival. This Group 2 is open to only mares and fillies who are four or older and is run over a distance of one mile and one furlong.
Established in 1997, the race is named in honour of the filly Dahlia from the 1970s. Originally holding a listed status, it was upgraded in 2004 to a Group 3 and then upgraded again in 2015 to its current Group 2 status.
Dahlia Stakes Information:
If you are interested in other predictions at Newmarket then head over to the Newmarket tips page to see which runners are being supported by the OLBG racing tipsters and also compare those predictions to the runners that make the trend shortlist when added below. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information during the Guineas Festival, head down to the Other Principal races during the Newmarket Guineas Festival section for links to these. In addition to those, we also cover numerous races at Newmarket during the flat season, you can find links to those here.
How competitive is the Dahlia Stakes market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2009 when the race had an over-round of 107%. The race in 2018 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 122%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Dahlia Stakes, the over-round has been 113%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £113 which is bet.
Dahlia Stakes Trends:
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Dahlia Stakes next time out then you would have backed a total of 6 winners. Backing all 18 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of +6.70. Before placing your bet on the 2025 Dahlia Stakes see which other runners today are being backed on the racing predictions page.
The runner that holds the record over the past 20 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2020 renewal when Terebellum from John Gosden under the guidance of Frankie Dettori, won in a time of 2:03.28, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Heaven Sent, trained by Sir Michael Stoute and ridden by Ryan Moore set the quickest time of 1:47.98 in the 2009 renewal.
These are the top three quickest-run Dahlia Stakes over the last 20 renewals:
- Heaven Sent (1:47.98) in 2009
- Bragging (1:48.33) in 2015
- Tarfah (1:48.78) in 2005
Dahlia Stakes Past Winners
Here are the Dahlia Stakes past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Dahlia Stakes as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 1:50.23 | Stay Alert (GB) 5yo 9-2 (4 of 6) 5/1 | David Egan Hughie Morrison (GB) |
| 2023 1:51.49 | Via Sistina (IRE) 5yo 9-2 (3 of 9) 5/2F | Jamie Spencer George Boughey (GB) |
| 2022 1:49.74 | Dreamloper (IRE) 5yo 9-0 (3 of 6) 4/1 | Kieran Shoemark Ed Walker (GB) |
| 2021 1:51.98 | Lady Bowthorpe (GB) 5yo 9-0 (4 of 7) 6/1 | Kieran Shoemark William Jarvis (GB) |
| 2020 2:03.28 | Terebellum (IRE) 4yo 9-0 (3 of 7) 10/11F | Frankie Dettori John Gosden (GB) |
| 2019 1:51.27 | Worth Waiting (GB) 4yo 9-0 (2 of 5) 3/1 | James Doyle David Lanigan (GB) |
| 2018 1:50.43 | Wuheida (GB) 4yo 9-5 (2 of 8) 10/11F | William Buick Charlie Appleby (GB) |
| 2017 1:49.19 | Somehow (IRE) 4yo 9-0 (1 of 7) 13/8F | Ryan Moore A P O'Brien (IRE) |
| 2016 1:51.06 | Usherette (IRE) 4yo 9-0 (4 of 9) 5/1 | Mickael Barzalona A Fabre (FR) |
| 2015 1:48.33 | Bragging (USA) 4yo 9-0 (7 of 8) 9/2 | Ryan Moore Sir Michael Stoute (GB) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Dahlia Stakes have been based:
- GB: 17 winners with an additional 28 placings from 130 runners
- FR: 2 winners with an additional 0 placings from 9 runners
- IRE: 1 winner with an additional 0 placings from 4 runners
- GER: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 4 runners
Dahlia Stakes Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the Dahlia Stakes over the last 20 renewals is Sir Michael Stoute who has won the race six times with those six winners coming from Echelon (2007), Heaven Sent (2008 & 2009), Strawberrydaiquiri (2010), Dank (2013) and Bragging (2015). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Dahlia Stakes are A Fabre (2 wins) and John Gosden (2 wins).
Here are some of the top Dahlia Stakes trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sir Michael Stoute | 14-6-10 | +4.47 | +2.71 |
| A Fabre | 5-2-2 | +4.25 | +1.41 |
| John Gosden | 5-2-3 | +0.91 | +0.40 |
| Charlie Appleby | 5-1-1 | -3.09 | -3.45 |
| Ed Walker | 4-1-2 | +1.00 | +2.00 |
| William Jarvis | 3-1-2 | +4.00 | +4.15 |
| David Simcock | 2-1-1 | +9.00 | +5.00 |
| Brian Meehan | 2-1-1 | +6.50 | +3.50 |
| Hughie Morrison | 2-1-1 | +4.00 | +2.13 |
| George Boughey | 2-1-1 | +1.50 | +0.50 |
Dahlia Stakes Jockey Statistics
The leading jockey in the Dahlia Stakes over the last 20 renewals is Ryan Moore who has won the race six times with those six winners coming from Heaven Sent (2008 & 2009), Strawberrydaiquiri (2010), Dank (2013), Bragging (2015) and Somehow (2017). Other jockeys who have recorded multiple wins in the Dahlia Stakes are William Buick (3 wins) and Kieran Shoemark (2 wins).
Here are some of the top Dahlia Stakes jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Moore | 14-6-8 | +5.37 | +1.48 |
| William Buick | 12-3-3 | +4.91 | +0.43 |
| Kieran Shoemark | 2-2-2 | +10.00 | +6.25 |
| Frankie Dettori | 13-1-3 | -11.09 | -9.08 |
| Jamie Spencer | 6-1-1 | -2.50 | -3.50 |
| James Doyle | 4-1-2 | +0.00 | -0.02 |
| Mickael Barzalona | 3-1-1 | +3.00 | +1.00 |
| David Egan | 2-1-1 | +4.00 | +2.13 |
| Maxime Guyon | 1-1-1 | +2.25 | +1.41 |
| Kerrin McEvoy | 1-1-1 | +0.73 | +0.44 |
2025 Dahlia Stakes Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 5, 7, 1, 1, 1, 1, (4, 5, 6, 7), 4, 5, 2, 5, 7, 1, 1, 4, 1, 2, 3, 1, 2
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.
- 20 / 20 (61%) - No bigger than 10/1
- 20 / 20 (78%) - No bigger than 40/1 (Career)
- 20 / 20 (82%) - Achieved an RPR of 102+ (Last 5)
- 20 / 20 (85%) - Beaten no more -6½l (Debut)
- 20 / 20 (86%) - Achieved an RPR of 99+ (Last 3)
- 20 / 20 (86%) - Had 2 - 5 wins (Career)
- 20 / 20 (87%) - Ran in 3 - 9 races (1 Year)
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Not in CAN/DEU/ITA/UAE/WAL (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Not in a Cl3/Cl5-6 (Last Win)
- 19 / 20 (83%) - Held an OR of 97+
- 19 / 20 (87%) - Won by at least a neck (Last Win)
- 18 / 20 (55%) - Within the first 4 of the market
- 18 / 20 (72%) - No bigger than 12/1 (Career Win)
- 18 / 20 (84%) - Won within last 5 starts
- 17 / 20 (54%) - Achieved an RPR of 103+ (LTO)
Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Newmarket racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Dahlia Stakes. If you are looking to place on a bet this race well in advance of the actual running, then there may be an ante-post market available for you to place your bet. If you are unfamiliar with this type of betting then head over to the OLBG Betting School and read our Ante-Post Horse Racing article which explains how ante-post betting works.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Dahlia Stakes by adding a tip on the race here.
Dahlia Stakes Trend Analysis
The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +18.84 is when runners ran in a Class 1 (G3) when last winning. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners carried 126lbs last time out, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-27.
Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2024: Winner in 4 (2) [6 Runners]
- 2023: Winner in 3 (2,1) [9 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 3 (4) [6 Runners]
- 2021: Winner in 4 (1) [7 Runners]
- 2020: Winner in 3 (5) [7 Runners]
The course which has produced the most winners of the Dahlia Stakes is Newmarket (Rowley), there has been a total number of 5 winners of this race who ran at Newmarket (Rowley) last time out.
Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Dahlia Stakes:
- Pivotal (4 Wins)
- Fastnet Rock (3 Wins)
- Dansili (2 Wins)
Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have been disappointed with multiple attempts but no wins in the Dahlia Stakes, that stallion is Cape Cross who has failed to produce a winner from 7 runners.
Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Im A Dreamer in 2011, winning for David Simcock at odds of 10/1 under the guidance of William Buick. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there have been 8 winning favourites in the race. Ahead of the 2025 Dahlia Stakes why not head over to the best racing tipster page to see what the tipsters are backing today?
Other Principal races during the Newmarket Guineas Festival
Remember to head over to the Newmarket predictions page to see which runner the racing tipsters are supporting in the Dahlia Stakes. Below are the other principal races that we cover during the Guineas Festival with links to each race blog as well as information for last year's winners.
Friday at the Guineas Festival
The highlight on Friday is the Jockey Club Stakes, a group 2 contested over one mile and four furlongs.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 14:25 Newmarket King Charles II Stakes | Boiling Point (IRE) 3yo - 11/8 | Roger Varian James Doyle |
| 15:00 Newmarket Newmarket Stakes | Caviar Heights (IRE) 3yo - 7/1 | K R Burke Clifford Lee |
| 15:35 Newmarket Jockey Club Stakes | Outbox (GB) 9yo - 50/1 | Archie Watson Hollie Doyle |
Saturday at the Guineas Festival
Saturday's highlight is the 2,000 Guineas, part of the British Champion Series, we see the 3-year-old runners compete over a mile.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 13:45 Newmarket Rowley Handicap Stakes | Desert Cop (GB) 4yo - 22/1 | Andrew Balding Oisin Murphy |
| 14:20 Newmarket Suffolk Stakes | Liberty Lane (IRE) 4yo - 9/1 | K R Burke Clifford Lee |
| 14:55 Newmarket Palace House Stakes | Seven Questions (IRE) 3yo - 33/1 | George Scott Callum Shepherd |
| 15:35 Newmarket Qipco 2000 Guineas | Notable Speech (GB) 3yo - 16/1 | Charlie Appleby William Buick |
Sunday at the Guineas Festival
Sunday is all about the fillies with the 1,000 Guineas taking centre stage, the three-year-olds will compete over a mile trip.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 13:50 Newmarket Pretty Polly Stakes | Friendly Soul (GB) 3yo - 10/1 | John & Thady Gosden Kieran Shoemark |
| 14:25 Newmarket Dahlia Stakes | Stay Alert (GB) 5yo - 5/1 | Hughie Morrison David Egan |
| 15:40 Newmarket Qipco 1000 Guineas | Elmalka (GB) 3yo - 28/1 | Roger Varian Silvestre De Sousa |
Other Principal Races at Newmarket Racecourse
Here are some other notable races at the Newmarket racecourse throughout the racing season that you may be interested in.
Races in April (Craven Meeting)
Races in July (July Festival)
- Bahrain Trophy Stakes
- bet365 Sprint Handicap Stakes
- July Stakes
- Princess of Wales's Stakes
- bet365 Handicap Stakes
- Duchess of Cambridge Stakes
- Falmouth Stakes
- bet365 Mile Handicap Stakes
- Bunbury Cup
- July Cup
- Superlative Stakes
Races in September (Cambridgeshire Meeting)
- Cambridgeshire Meeting 1m4f Handicap
- Jockey Club Rose Bowl
- Tattersall Stakes
- Godolphin Stakes
- Joel Stakes
- Princess Royal Stakes
- Rockfel Stakes
- Rosemary Stakes
- Cambridgeshire Handicap
- Cambridgeshire Meeting 7f Handicap
- Cheveley Park Stakes
- Jersey Lily Fillies Nursery
- Middle Park Stakes
- Royal Lodge Stakes
Races in October (Future Champions Festival)
Races in October
Article Contributor Information
We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this Dahlia Stakes Preview are at hand, Andy and Darren. They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for Flat Racing.
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