Dahlia Stakes Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (Guineas Festival)

Updated: 385 Horse Racing

Contested over a distance of 1m1f is the Dahlia Stakes which is scheduled to take place at Newmarket during the Guineas Festival. Below we have detailed past winners along with both trainer and jockey records in the race and see which trends have been set based on past winners of the Dahlia Stakes.

Dahlia Stakes Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (Guineas Festival)
Andy Powell Content Editor

Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.

2024 Dahlia Stakes Preview

Scheduled to take place in May of each year at the Newmarket racecourse is the Dahlia Stakes which takes place during the Guineas Festival. This Group 2 is open to only mares and fillies who are four or older and is run over a distance of one mile and one furlong.

Established in 1997, the race is named in honour of the filly Dahlia from the 1970s. Originally holding a listed status, it was upgraded in 2004 to a Group 3 and then upgraded again in 2015 to its current Group 2 status.

Dahlia Stakes Information:

If you are interested in other predictions at Newmarket then head over to the Newmarket tips page to see which runners are being supported by the OLBG racing tipsters and also compare those predictions to the runners that make the trend shortlist when added below. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Other Principal Races at Newmarket Racecourse section for links to these.

How competitive is the Dahlia Stakes market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2009 when the race had an over-round of 107%. The race in 2018 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 122%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Dahlia Stakes, the over-round has been 113%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £113 which is bet.

Dahlia Stakes Trends:

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Dahlia Stakes next time out then you would have backed a total of 5 winners. Backing all 18 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of +4.20. Remember to use the racing predictions along with the information on this page to find a bet on the 2024 Dahlia Stakes.

The runner that holds the record over the past 20 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2020 renewal when Terebellum from John Gosden under the guidance of Frankie Dettori, won in a time of 2:03.28, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Heaven Sent, trained by Sir Michael Stoute and ridden by Ryan Moore set the quickest time of 1:47.98 in the 2009 renewal.

These are the top three quickest-run Dahlia Stakes over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2009 - Heaven Sent (1:47.98)
  • 2015 - Bragging (1:48.33)
  • 2005 - Tarfah (1:48.78)

Dahlia Stakes Past Winners

Here are the Dahlia Stakes past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and also the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Dahlia Stakes as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse (Drawn) Info
2023
1:51.49
Via Sistina (IRE)
5yo 9-2 (3 of 9) 5/2F
Jamie Spencer
George Boughey (GB)
2022
1:49.74
Dreamloper (IRE)
5yo 9-0 (3 of 6) 4/1
Kieran Shoemark
Ed Walker (GB)
2021
1:51.98
Lady Bowthorpe (GB)
5yo 9-0 (4 of 7) 6/1
Kieran Shoemark
William Jarvis (GB)
2020
2:03.28
Terebellum (IRE)
4yo 9-0 (3 of 7) 10/11F
Frankie Dettori
John Gosden (GB)
2019
1:51.27
Worth Waiting (GB)
4yo 9-0 (2 of 5) 3/1
James Doyle
David Lanigan (GB)
2018
1:50.43
Wuheida (GB)
4yo 9-5 (2 of 8) 10/11F
William Buick
Charlie Appleby (GB)
2017
1:49.19
Somehow (IRE)
4yo 9-0 (1 of 7) 13/8F
Ryan Moore
A P O'Brien (IRE)
2016
1:51.06
Usherette (IRE)
4yo 9-0 (4 of 9) 5/1
Mickael Barzalona
A Fabre (FR)
2015
1:48.33
Bragging (USA)
4yo 9-0 (7 of 8) 9/2
Ryan Moore
Sir Michael Stoute (GB)
2014
1:50.41
Esoterique (IRE)
4yo 9-0 (8 of 7) 9/4
Maxime Guyon
A Fabre (FR)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Dahlia Stakes have been based:

  • GB: 17 winners with an additional 28 placings from 131 runners
  • FR: 2 winners with an additional 1 placing from 10 runners
  • IRE: 1 winner with an additional 0 placings from 4 runners
  • GER: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 4 runners

Dahlia Stakes Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the Dahlia Stakes over the last 20 renewals is Sir Michael Stoute who has won the race six times with those six winners coming from Echelon (2007), Heaven Sent (2008 & 2009), Strawberrydaiquiri (2010), Dank (2013) and Bragging (2015). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Dahlia Stakes are John Gosden (2 wins) and A Fabre (2 wins).

Here are some of the top Dahlia Stakes trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
Sir Michael Stoute 14-6-10 +4.47 +2.71
John Gosden 6-2-3 -0.09 -0.60
A Fabre 5-2-2 +4.25 +1.41
Ed Walker 4-1-2 +1.00 +2.00
Charlie Appleby 4-1-1 -2.09 -2.45
Brian Meehan 3-1-2 +5.50 +3.35
William Jarvis 3-1-2 +4.00 +4.15
David Simcock 2-1-1 +9.00 +5.00
George Boughey 2-1-1 +1.50 +0.50
A P O'Brien 1-1-1 +1.63 +1.02

Dahlia Stakes Jockey Statistics

The leading jockey in the Dahlia Stakes over the last 20 renewals is Ryan Moore who has won the race six times with those six winners coming from Heaven Sent (2008 & 2009), Strawberrydaiquiri (2010), Dank (2013), Bragging (2015) and Somehow (2017). Other jockeys who have recorded multiple wins in the Dahlia Stakes are William Buick (3 wins) and Kieran Shoemark (2 wins).

Here are some of the top Dahlia Stakes jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Ryan Moore 14-6-8 +5.37 +1.48
William Buick 11-3-3 +5.91 +1.43
Kieran Shoemark 2-2-2 +10.00 +6.25
Frankie Dettori 14-1-3 -12.09 -10.08
Jamie Spencer 5-1-1 -1.50 -2.50
James Doyle 4-1-2 +0.00 -0.02
Mickael Barzalona 3-1-1 +3.00 +1.00
Maxime Guyon 1-1-1 +2.25 +1.41
Kerrin McEvoy 1-1-1 +0.73 +0.44
Jim Crowley 5-0-1 -5.00 -3.70

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 4, 5, 7, 1, 1, 1, 1, (4, 5, 6, 7), 4, 5, 2, 5, 7, 1, 1, 4, 1, 2, 3, 1

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (59%) - No bigger than 10/1
  • 20 / 20 (70%) - Achieved an RPR of 97+ (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (79%) - No bigger than 40/1 (Career)
  • 20 / 20 (79%) - Beaten no more -6½l (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (80%) - Achieved an RPR of 102+ (Last 5)
  • 20 / 20 (83%) - Beaten no more -6½l (Debut)
  • 20 / 20 (85%) - Achieved an RPR of 99+ (Last 3)
  • 20 / 20 (85%) - Had 2 - 5 wins (Career)
  • 20 / 20 (86%) - Made 3 - 9 starts (1 Year)
  • 20 / 20 (86%) - Break of 7 - 371 days (Last Win)
  • 20 / 20 (87%) - Not in a Cl3/Cl5/Cl6 (Last Win)
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - Held an OR of 92+
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - Not in CAN/DEU/ITA/UAE/WAL (Last Win)
  • 19 / 20 (79%) - No bigger than 14/1 (Career Win)
  • 18 / 20 (54%) - Within the first 4 of market

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Newmarket racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Dahlia Stakes. If there is anything that you do not understand in this blog, please do leave a comment or alternatively, head over to the Horse Racing Terms and Abbreviations article which is available in the OLBG Betting School section.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Dahlia Stakes by adding a tip on the race here.

Dahlia Stakes Trend Analysis

The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +13.47 is when runners had a highest class won of Class 1 (G3). The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners carried 126lbs last time out, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-27.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2023: Winner in 3 (2,1) [9 Runners]
  • 2022: Winner in 3 (4) [6 Runners]
  • 2021: Winner in 4 (1) [7 Runners]
  • 2020: Winner in 3 (5) [7 Runners]
  • 2019: Winner in 2 (3) [5 Runners]

The course which has produced the most winners of the Dahlia Stakes is Newmarket (Rowley), there has been a total number of 5 winners of this race who ran at Newmarket (Rowley) last time out.

Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Dahlia Stakes:

  • Pivotal (4 Wins)
  • Dansili (2 Wins)
  • Fastnet Rock (2 Wins)

Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have been disappointed with multiple attempts but no wins in the Dahlia Stakes, that stallion is Cape Cross who has failed to produce a winner from 7 runners.

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Im A Dreamer in 2011, winning for David Simcock at odds of 10/1 under the guidance of William Buick. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 8 winning favourites in the race. Remember to bookmark the best racing tipsters page so you can get easy access to the best OLBG racing tipsters.

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