Dahlia Stakes Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (Guineas Festival)

Updated: 491 Horse Racing

Contested over a distance of 1m1f is the Dahlia Stakes which is scheduled to take place at Newmarket during the Guineas Festival. Below we have detailed past winners along with both trainer and jockey records in the race and see which trends have been set based on past winners of the Dahlia Stakes.

Dahlia Stakes Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (Guineas Festival)
In this article: Preview
Andy Powell Content Editor

Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.

2025 Dahlia Stakes Preview

Scheduled to take place in May of each year at the Newmarket racecourse is the Dahlia Stakes which takes place during the Guineas Festival. This Group 2 is open to only mares and fillies who are four or older and is run over a distance of one mile and one furlong.

Established in 1997, the race is named in honour of the filly Dahlia from the 1970s. Originally holding a listed status, it was upgraded in 2004 to a Group 3 and then upgraded again in 2015 to its current Group 2 status.

Dahlia Stakes Information:

If you are interested in other predictions at Newmarket then head over to the Newmarket tips page to see which runners are being supported by the OLBG racing tipsters and also compare those predictions to the runners that make the trend shortlist when added below. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information during the Guineas Festival, head down to the Other Principal races during the Newmarket Guineas Festival section for links to these. In addition to those, we also cover numerous races at Newmarket during the flat season, you can find links to those here.

How competitive is the Dahlia Stakes market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2009 when the race had an over-round of 107%. The race in 2018 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 122%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Dahlia Stakes, the over-round has been 113%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £113 which is bet.

Dahlia Stakes Trends:

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Dahlia Stakes next time out then you would have backed a total of 6 winners. Backing all 18 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of +6.70. Before placing your bet on the 2025 Dahlia Stakes see which other runners today are being backed on the racing predictions page.

The runner that holds the record over the past 20 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2020 renewal when Terebellum from John Gosden under the guidance of Frankie Dettori, won in a time of 2:03.28, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Heaven Sent, trained by Sir Michael Stoute and ridden by Ryan Moore set the quickest time of 1:47.98 in the 2009 renewal.

These are the top three quickest-run Dahlia Stakes over the last 20 renewals:

  1. Heaven Sent (1:47.98) in 2009
  2. Bragging (1:48.33) in 2015
  3. Tarfah (1:48.78) in 2005

Dahlia Stakes Past Winners

Here are the Dahlia Stakes past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Dahlia Stakes as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

YearHorse (Drawn)Info
2024
1:50.23
Stay Alert (GB)
5yo 9-2 (4 of 6) 5/1
David Egan
Hughie Morrison (GB)
2023
1:51.49
Via Sistina (IRE)
5yo 9-2 (3 of 9) 5/2F
Jamie Spencer
George Boughey (GB)
2022
1:49.74
Dreamloper (IRE)
5yo 9-0 (3 of 6) 4/1
Kieran Shoemark
Ed Walker (GB)
2021
1:51.98
Lady Bowthorpe (GB)
5yo 9-0 (4 of 7) 6/1
Kieran Shoemark
William Jarvis (GB)
2020
2:03.28
Terebellum (IRE)
4yo 9-0 (3 of 7) 10/11F
Frankie Dettori
John Gosden (GB)
2019
1:51.27
Worth Waiting (GB)
4yo 9-0 (2 of 5) 3/1
James Doyle
David Lanigan (GB)
2018
1:50.43
Wuheida (GB)
4yo 9-5 (2 of 8) 10/11F
William Buick
Charlie Appleby (GB)
2017
1:49.19
Somehow (IRE)
4yo 9-0 (1 of 7) 13/8F
Ryan Moore
A P O'Brien (IRE)
2016
1:51.06
Usherette (IRE)
4yo 9-0 (4 of 9) 5/1
Mickael Barzalona
A Fabre (FR)
2015
1:48.33
Bragging (USA)
4yo 9-0 (7 of 8) 9/2
Ryan Moore
Sir Michael Stoute (GB)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Dahlia Stakes have been based:

  • GB: 17 winners with an additional 28 placings from 130 runners
  • FR: 2 winners with an additional 0 placings from 9 runners
  • IRE: 1 winner with an additional 0 placings from 4 runners
  • GER: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 4 runners

Dahlia Stakes Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the Dahlia Stakes over the last 20 renewals is Sir Michael Stoute who has won the race six times with those six winners coming from Echelon (2007), Heaven Sent (2008 & 2009), Strawberrydaiquiri (2010), Dank (2013) and Bragging (2015). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Dahlia Stakes are A Fabre (2 wins) and John Gosden (2 wins).

Here are some of the top Dahlia Stakes trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

TrainerR-W-PWinEW
Sir Michael Stoute14-6-10+4.47+2.71
A Fabre5-2-2+4.25+1.41
John Gosden5-2-3+0.91+0.40
Charlie Appleby5-1-1-3.09-3.45
Ed Walker4-1-2+1.00+2.00
William Jarvis3-1-2+4.00+4.15
David Simcock2-1-1+9.00+5.00
Brian Meehan2-1-1+6.50+3.50
Hughie Morrison2-1-1+4.00+2.13
George Boughey2-1-1+1.50+0.50

Dahlia Stakes Jockey Statistics

The leading jockey in the Dahlia Stakes over the last 20 renewals is Ryan Moore who has won the race six times with those six winners coming from Heaven Sent (2008 & 2009), Strawberrydaiquiri (2010), Dank (2013), Bragging (2015) and Somehow (2017). Other jockeys who have recorded multiple wins in the Dahlia Stakes are William Buick (3 wins) and Kieran Shoemark (2 wins).

Here are some of the top Dahlia Stakes jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

JockeyR-W-PWinEW
Ryan Moore14-6-8+5.37+1.48
William Buick12-3-3+4.91+0.43
Kieran Shoemark2-2-2+10.00+6.25
Frankie Dettori13-1-3-11.09-9.08
Jamie Spencer6-1-1-2.50-3.50
James Doyle4-1-2+0.00-0.02
Mickael Barzalona3-1-1+3.00+1.00
David Egan2-1-1+4.00+2.13
Maxime Guyon1-1-1+2.25+1.41
Kerrin McEvoy1-1-1+0.73+0.44

Dahlia Stakes Trend Analysis

The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +18.84 is when runners ran in a Class 1 (G3) when last winning. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners carried 126lbs last time out, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-27.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2024: Winner in 4 (2) [6 Runners]
  • 2023: Winner in 3 (2,1) [9 Runners]
  • 2022: Winner in 3 (4) [6 Runners]
  • 2021: Winner in 4 (1) [7 Runners]
  • 2020: Winner in 3 (5) [7 Runners]

The course which has produced the most winners of the Dahlia Stakes is Newmarket (Rowley), there has been a total number of 5 winners of this race who ran at Newmarket (Rowley) last time out.

Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Dahlia Stakes:

  • Pivotal (4 Wins)
  • Fastnet Rock (3 Wins)
  • Dansili (2 Wins)

Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have been disappointed with multiple attempts but no wins in the Dahlia Stakes, that stallion is Cape Cross who has failed to produce a winner from 7 runners.

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Im A Dreamer in 2011, winning for David Simcock at odds of 10/1 under the guidance of William Buick. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there have been 8 winning favourites in the race. Ahead of the 2025 Dahlia Stakes why not head over to the best racing tipster page to see what the tipsters are backing today?

Other Principal races during the Newmarket Guineas Festival

Remember to head over to the Newmarket predictions page to see which runner the racing tipsters are supporting in the Dahlia Stakes. Below are the other principal races that we cover during the Guineas Festival with links to each race blog as well as information for last year's winners.

Friday at the Guineas Festival

The highlight on Friday is the Jockey Club Stakes, a group 2 contested over one mile and four furlongs.

RaceLast WinnerInfo
14:25 Newmarket
King Charles II Stakes
Boiling Point (IRE)
3yo - 11/8
Roger Varian
James Doyle
15:00 Newmarket
Newmarket Stakes
Caviar Heights (IRE)
3yo - 7/1
K R Burke
Clifford Lee
15:35 Newmarket
Jockey Club Stakes
Outbox (GB)
9yo - 50/1
Archie Watson
Hollie Doyle

Saturday at the Guineas Festival

Saturday's highlight is the 2,000 Guineas, part of the British Champion Series, we see the 3-year-old runners compete over a mile.

RaceLast WinnerInfo
13:45 Newmarket
Rowley Handicap Stakes
Desert Cop (GB)
4yo - 22/1
Andrew Balding
Oisin Murphy
14:20 Newmarket
Suffolk Stakes
Liberty Lane (IRE)
4yo - 9/1
K R Burke
Clifford Lee
14:55 Newmarket
Palace House Stakes
Seven Questions (IRE)
3yo - 33/1
George Scott
Callum Shepherd
15:35 Newmarket
Qipco 2000 Guineas
Notable Speech (GB)
3yo - 16/1
Charlie Appleby
William Buick

Sunday at the Guineas Festival

Sunday is all about the fillies with the 1,000 Guineas taking centre stage, the three-year-olds will compete over a mile trip.

RaceLast WinnerInfo
13:50 Newmarket
Pretty Polly Stakes
Friendly Soul (GB)
3yo - 10/1
John & Thady Gosden
Kieran Shoemark
14:25 Newmarket
Dahlia Stakes
Stay Alert (GB)
5yo - 5/1
Hughie Morrison
David Egan
15:40 Newmarket
Qipco 1000 Guineas
Elmalka (GB)
3yo - 28/1
Roger Varian
Silvestre De Sousa

Article Contributor Information

We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this Dahlia Stakes Preview are at hand, Andy and Darren. They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for Flat Racing.

Darren Brett

Darren Brett

Tipster competition manager

Darren has worked in the horse racing industry for decades bringing to OLBG for the last 20 years a wealth of knowledge, creating much of our content on these sports. Darren also manages our Grand National Guide and is the go-to font of knowledge for the world's greatest steeplechase.
Andy Powell

Andy Powell

Content editor

Andy, a seasoned horse racing expert with over 15 years of experience, possesses a comprehensive understanding of the sport, from delving into complex statistical data for flat racing in the UK and Ireland to crafting insightful flat racing blogs for OLBG.

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