Victoria Cup Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends

Updated: 1532 Horse Racing

If you are a fan of horse racing trends then this preview of the Victoria Cup will be perfect for you! Not only do we look at the trends but we look at past winners as well as trainer and jockey records for the Victoria Cup, a race run over 7f at Ascot.

Victoria Cup Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends
Andy Powell Content Editor

Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.

2024 Victoria Cup Preview

The Victoria Cup is a flat handicap that is scheduled to take place in May of each year at the Ascot racecourse, the race is run over a straight seven furlongs and is open to runners aged four or older.

Victoria Cup Information:

If you are interested in other predictions at Ascot then head over to the Ascot tips page to see which runners are being supported by the OLBG racing tipsters and also compare those predictions to the runners that make the trend shortlist when added below. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Other Principal Races at Ascot Racecourse section for links to these.

How competitive is the Victoria Cup market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2004 when the race had an over-round of 126%. The race in 2014 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 142%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Victoria Cup, the over-round has been 137%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £137 which is bet.

Victoria Cup Trends:

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Victoria Cup next time out then you would have backed a total of 4 winners. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of +7.58. Ahead of the 2024 Victoria Cup why not head over to the racing predictions for tips on other races today?

Over the last 20 renewals, it was the Michael Jarvis trained Iffraaj ridden by Philip Robinson who set the fastest winning time in the Victoria Cup, the runner won the race in a time of 1:22.97 was set when winning the race in 2005. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer Clive Cox and jockey Adam Kirby with River Nymph who set the slowest winning time, the race-winning time was 1:30.95 in the 2021 renewal.

These are the top three quickest-run Victoria Cup over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2005 - Iffraaj (1:22.97)
  • 2016 - Flash Fire (1:25.35)
  • 2018 - Ripp Orf (1:25.40)

Victoria Cup Past Winners

Here are the Victoria Cup past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and also the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Victoria Cup as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Race Notes: There was no renewal in 2020 and the 2005 renewal was held at Lingfield.

Year Horse (Drawn) Info
2023
1:30.53
Rebel Territory (GB)
5yo 9-1 (2 of 22) 11/1
Jim Crowley
Amanda Perrett (GB)
2022
1:27.18
Vafortino (IRE)
4yo 8-7 (27 of 27) 16/1
Benoit De La Sayette (7lbs)
Kevin Philippart De Foy (GB)
2021
1:30.95
River Nymph (GB)
4yo 9-0 (24 of 27) 11/1
Adam Kirby
Clive Cox (GB)
2019
1:27.35
Cape Byron (GB)
5yo 9-3 (10 of 26) 8/1
Andrea Atzeni
Roger Varian (GB)
2018
1:25.40
Ripp Orf (IRE)
4yo 8-1 (13 of 27) 20/1
Hayley Turner
David Elsworth (GB)
2017
1:27.14
Fastnet Tempest (IRE)
4yo 8-5 (18 of 24) 5/1F
Josephine Gordon
William Haggas (GB)
2016
1:25.35
Flash Fire (IRE)
4yo 9-6 (29 of 26) 20/1
Adam Kirby
Charlie Appleby (GB)
2015
1:26.46
Speculative Bid (IRE)
4yo 8-9 (23 of 26) 10/1
Jamie Spencer
David Elsworth (GB)
2014
1:29.78
Gabriels Lad (IRE)
5yo 9-8 (25 of 25) 12/1
George Baker
Denis Coakley (GB)
2013
1:28.26
Excellent Guest (GB)
6yo 8-10 (13 of 26) 25/1
Tom Queally
George Margarson (GB)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Victoria Cup have been based:

  • GB: 19 winners with an additional 60 placings from 490 runners
  • IRE: 1 winner with an additional 0 placings from 4 runners
  • AUS: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 3 runners
  • FR: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 2 runners
  • USA: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner

Victoria Cup Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the Victoria Cup over the last 20 renewals is David Elsworth who has won the race two times with those two winners coming from Speculative Bid (2015) and Ripp Orf (2018). There are multiple trainers who have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Victoria Cup, Richard Fahey (0-22), David O'Meara (0-18), Kevin Ryan (0-16), Andrew Balding (0-11), Richard Hannon (0-10) and Stuart Williams (0-10) have all failed to produce a single winner despite sending multiple runners to the race.

Here are some of the top Victoria Cup trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
David Elsworth 5-2-3 +27.00 +17.63
David Barron 13-1-5 -4.00 +1.13
William Haggas 12-1-3 -6.00 -0.74
George Margarson 11-1-1 +15.00 +5.63
Jim Goldie 11-1-3 -2.50 +2.95
Clive Cox 9-1-2 +3.00 +2.51
Amanda Perrett 6-1-3 +6.00 +9.51
Brian Meehan 4-1-2 +22.00 +16.26
Charlie Appleby 4-1-1 +17.00 +9.50
Roger Varian 4-1-1 +5.00 +2.00

Victoria Cup Jockey Statistics

The leading jockey in the Victoria Cup over the last 20 renewals is Adam Kirby who has won the race two times with those two winners coming from Flash Fire (2016) and River Nymph (2021).

Here are some of the top Victoria Cup jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Adam Kirby 8-2-2 +25.00 +13.38
Martin Dwyer 12-1-3 +14.00 +11.89
Jamie Spencer 9-1-3 +2.00 +1.44
Andrea Atzeni 9-1-2 +0.00 +3.75
Hayley Turner 7-1-2 +14.00 +8.75
Ryan Moore 7-1-3 +2.00 +2.01
Tom Queally 6-1-1 +20.00 +10.63
Jim Crowley 6-1-1 +6.00 +1.88
Frankie Dettori 4-1-2 +13.00 +8.63
Tadhg O'Shea 4-1-1 +6.00 +2.63

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 26, 1, 1, 6, 21, (1, 2), 16, 2, 5, 9, 20, (4, 13), 7, 12, 1, 10, 2, 9, 6, 8

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (63%) - No bigger than 25/1
  • 20 / 20 (64%) - Within the first 15 of market
  • 20 / 20 (71%) - Made 4 - 28 starts (Career)
  • 20 / 20 (75%) - Made 2 - 24 starts (Hcps)
  • 20 / 20 (82%) - Fewer than 16 starts (Class)
  • 20 / 20 (83%) - Highest Placed is not G1/G2/G3/Cl4
  • 20 / 20 (86%) - Achieved a TS of 76+ (Last 5)
  • 20 / 20 (86%) - No more than +20lbs (Vs Min Weight)
  • 20 / 20 (87%) - Had 1 - 7 placings (1 Year)
  • 20 / 20 (88%) - No bigger than 20/1 (Career Win)
  • 20 / 20 (88%) - Had 3 - 15 placings (Career)
  • 20 / 20 (89%) - Won within last 12 starts
  • 19 / 20 (83%) - Not on HY/GS/FM/STD-SLW/FS (Last Win)
  • 19 / 20 (86%) - Fewer than 3 wins (Further)
  • 19 / 20 (86%) - Ran over 5f - 7f (Debut)

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Ascot racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Victoria Cup. If you are looking to place on a bet this race well in advance of the actual running, then there may be an ante-post market available for you to place your bet. If you are unfamiliar with this type of betting then head over to the OLBG Betting School and read our Ante-Post Horse Racing article which explains how ante-post betting works.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Victoria Cup by adding a tip on the race here.

Victoria Cup Trend Analysis

The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners were priced at 33/1, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-82.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2023: Winner in 2 (23,14,6) [22 Runners]
  • 2022: Winner in 27 (26,28,13) [27 Runners]
  • 2021: Winner in 24 (17,25,14) [27 Runners]
  • 2019: Winner in 10 (22,4,26) [26 Runners]
  • 2018: Winner in 13 (11,18,14) [27 Runners]

The course which has produced the most winners of the Victoria Cup is Newmarket (Rowley), there has been a total number of 6 winners of this race who ran at Newmarket (Rowley) last time out. The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Newbury, there has been a total number of 3 winners of this race who ran at Newbury last time out.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 20 winners from a total of 492 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 8 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Victoria Cup, that stallion Shamardal has produced 2 winners (2019,2016).

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Victoria Cup despite multiple attempts:

  • Oasis Dream (0 Wins from 14 runners)
  • Cape Cross (0 Wins from 10 runners)
  • Kyllachy (0 Wins from 10 runners)
  • Invincible Spirit (0 Wins from 9 runners)
  • Selkirk (0 Wins from 9 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Excellent Guest in 2013, winning for George Margarson at odds of 25/1 under the guidance of Tom Queally. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 4 winning favourites in the race. Remember to bookmark the best racing tipsters page so you can get easy access to the best OLBG racing tipsters.

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