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2022 St Leger Preview, Trends & Analysis (St Leger Festival)

Published: Sep 5, 2:00pm Last Updated: Sep 13, 2:34pm Horse Racing 4 Comments 3935 Views

2022 St Leger Preview

Britain's oldest 'classic', the St Leger, was first run in 1776 and is recognised as the last leg of the 'Triple Crown' comprising the 2000 Guineas and Epsom Derby. Camelot in 2012 nearly became the first horse since Nijinsky in 1970 to complete the set having won the 2000 Guineas and Derby but had to settle with the runners up finish here behind Encke.

Although Camelot nearly accomplished the Triple Crown in 2012, generally now it is very seldom a target for the season's early classic winners. From a breeders point of view, St Leger winners going on to stallion duties may not have too much influence when it comes to breeding 'speed' and tend to become more prominent sires on the National Hunt scene. Recent examples would be Aidan O'Brien's Milan in 2001 and Brian Boru in 2003, both have sired numerous National Hunt winners.

The St Leger not only is the oldest classic but also is the longest in distance, run over one mile and six and a half furlongs and is open to three-year-old colts and fillies. It has been won by some true legends of the turf down the years, Never Say Die completed the Epsom Derby and St Leger double in 1954 and in the process recorded the still standing longest winning St Leger margin of 12 lengths.

St Paddy in 1960 was the first of Lester Piggott's eight St Leger victories which also included the last triple-crown winner Nijinsky in 1970. Lester recorded his final St Leger victory on Commanche Run for Luca Cumani, 24 years after his first success.

Other equine greats to grace the St Leger winners enclosure include Bustino (1974), Her Majesty's Dunfermline under Willie Carson in 1977, the brilliant filly Oh So Sharp for Steve Cauthen and Sir Henry Cecil in 1984, Henry's Reference Point, the last Epsom Derby winner to complete the double in 1987 and another top female User Friendly in 1992.

Our dedicated Doncaster Betting Picks will not only bring you predictions from the OLBG racing tipsters for the upcoming card that includes the St Leger but will also have predictions for each meeting at Doncaster throughout the season so be sure to head over there.

Over the last 20 renewals, it was the Jeremy Noseda trained Sixties Icon ridden by Frankie Dettori who has set the fastest winning time in the St Leger, the runner won the race in a time of 2:57.29 that was set when winning the race in 2006. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer A P O'Brien and jockey Frankie Dettori with Scorpion who set the slowest winning time, the race-winning time was 3:19.01 in the 2005 renewal.

These are the top three quickest run St Leger over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2006 - Sixties Icon (2:57.29)
  • 2019 - Logician (3:00.27)
  • 2011 - Masked Marvel (3:00.44)

How competitive is the St Leger market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2005 when the race had an over-round of 113%. The race in 2012 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 127%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the St Leger, the over-round has been 118% that means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £118 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the St Leger next time out then you would have back a total of 3 winners. Backing all 17 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -6.42. Before placing your bet on the 2022 St Leger see which other runners today are being back on the racing predictions page.

St Leger Past Ten Winners

Here are the past 10 winners of the St Leger. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall which the horse came from and also the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the St Leger as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Race Notes: The 2006 renewal was contested at York over 1-mile, 5 furlongs and 197 yards.

Year Horse (Drawn) Info
2021
3:04.28
Hurricane Lane
3yo 9-1 (4 of 10) 8/11F
William Buick
Charlie Appleby
2020
3:01.94
Galileo Chrome
3yo 9-1 (12 of 11) 4/1
Tom Marquand
Joseph Patrick O'Brien
2019
3:00.27
Logician
3yo 9-1 (4 of 8) 5/6F
Frankie Dettori
John Gosden
2018
3:03.34
Kew Gardens
3yo 9-1 (8 of 12) 3/1
Ryan Moore
A P O'Brien
2017
3:04.04
Capri
3yo 9-1 (9 of 11) 3/1F
Ryan Moore
A P O'Brien
2016
3:05.48
Harbour Law
3yo 9-1 (9 of 9) 22/1
George Baker
Laura Mongan
2015
3:07.12
Simple Verse
3yo 8-12 (1 of 7) 8/1
Andrea Atzeni
Ralph Beckett
2014
3:05.42
Kingston Hill
3yo 9-1 (4 of 12) 9/4F
Andrea Atzeni
Roger Varian
2013
3:09.20
Leading Light
3yo 9-0 (7 of 11) 7/2F
Joseph O'Brien
A P O'Brien
2012
3:03.81
Encke
3yo 9-0 (1 of 9) 25/1
Mickael Barzalona
Mahmood Al Zarooni

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the St Leger have been based:

  • GB: 14 winners with an additional 27 placings from 132 runners
  • IRE: 6 winners with an additional 11 placings from 63 runners
  • FR: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
  • CZE: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner

St Leger Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the St Leger over the last 20 renewals is A P O'Brien who has won the race 5 times. Those 5 winners came from Brian Boru (2003), Scorpion (2005), Leading Light (2013), Capri (2017) & Kew Gardens (2018). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the St Leger are John Gosden (4 wins) & Saeed bin Suroor (2 wins). There is one trainer who has not had the best of times in the St Leger, Andrew Balding has sent a total of 10 runners to the race without recording any wins.

Here are some of the top St Leger trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
A P O'Brien 51-5-14 -34.34 -26.63
John Gosden 17-4-8 +10.83 +5.57
Saeed bin Suroor 6-2-3 +13.00 +6.92
Sir Michael Stoute 16-1-6 -7.00 -5.15
Charlie Appleby 5-1-1 -3.27 -3.56
Ralph Beckett 4-1-3 +5.00 +4.17
Joseph Patrick O'Brien 2-1-1 +3.00 +1.40
Roger Varian 2-1-1 +1.25 +0.35
Laura Mongan 1-1-1 +22.00 +13.20
Tim Easterby 1-1-1 +7.00 +4.20

St Leger Jockey Statistics

The leading jockey in the St Leger over the last 20 renewals is Frankie Dettori who has won the race 4 times. Those 4 winners came from Scorpion (2005), Sixties Icon (2006), Conduit (2008) & Logician (2019). Other jockeys who have recorded multiple wins in the St Leger are William Buick (3 wins), Ryan Moore (2 wins) & Andrea Atzeni (2 wins).

Here are some of the top St Leger jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Frankie Dettori 15-4-7 +0.12 -1.41
William Buick 8-3-4 +15.23 +8.29
Ryan Moore 9-2-2 -1.00 -3.40
Andrea Atzeni 6-2-4 +6.25 +8.95
Jamie Spencer 5-1-1 -2.75 -3.25
Mickael Barzalona 2-1-1 +24.00 +14.00
Tom Marquand 2-1-1 +3.00 +1.40
Silvestre De Sousa 6-0-1 -6.00 -4.10
Jim Crowley 5-0-2 -5.00 -2.60
James Doyle 5-0-2 -5.00 -3.00

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,3,1,(1,2),1,1,3,7,2,6,3,2,1,1,(2,4),UR,1,2,1,4,1

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (73%) - Beaten no more than 5l (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (76%) - Finished first four (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (78%) - No bigger than 25/1
  • 20 / 20 (82%) - No bigger than 12/1 (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (86%) - Previously placed over 1m4f+
  • 20 / 20 (88%) - Not carrying 7lbs+ vs LTO
  • 19 / 20 (70%) - 2-4 Career wins
  • 19 / 20 (79%) - 1-2 finish within last 3 runs
  • 19 / 20 (79%) - Ran in a group race (LTO)
  • 19 / 20 (80%) - Not up more than 2 classes
  • 19 / 20 (84%) - Focus on colts
  • 18 / 20 (74%) - Had placed in a group race
  • 18 / 20 (75%) - Ran on GD or GF ground (LTO)
  • 17 / 20 (73%) - 5-9 Career starts

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Doncaster racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the St Leger. If you are looking to place on a bet this race well in advance of the actual running, then there may be an ante-post market available for you to place your bet. If you are unfamiliar with this type of betting then head over to the OLBG Betting School and have a read of our Ante-Post Horse Racing article which explains how ante-post betting works.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not! With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then why share your thoughts on the St Leger by adding a tip on the race here.

St Leger Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +24.04 is when runners had 2 career wins in Flat (Turf) races. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 1 career win in Flat (Turf) races, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-46.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2021: Winner in 4 (3,1) [10 Runners]
  • 2020: Winner in 12 (8,4) [11 Runners]
  • 2019: Winner in 4 (6,3) [8 Runners]
  • 2018: Winner in 8 (10,11) [12 Runners]
  • 2017: Winner in 9 (1,6) [11 Runners]

The course which has produced the most winners of the St Leger is York, there has been a total number of 8 winners of this race who ran at York last time out. The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Goodwood, there has been a total number of 4 winners of this race who ran at Goodwood last time out.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 19 winners from a total of 183 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 1 winner from a total of 14 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, These are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the St Leger:

  • Galileo (3 Wins)
  • Montjeu (3 Wins)
  • Frankel (2 Wins)
  • Kingmambo (2 Wins)

Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have been disappointed with multiple attempts but no wins in the St Leger, that stallion is Sea The Stars who has failed to produce a winner from 6 runners.

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest priced winner was Encke in 2012 when winning for Mahmood Al Zarooni at odds of 25/1 under the guidance of Mickael Barzalona. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 9 winning favourites in the race. Before placing your bet on the 2022 St Leger see which other runners today are being back by the best racing tipsters today.

Other Principal races during the Doncaster St Leger Festival

Doncaster St Leger Festival races for Wednesday 7th September 2022

Doncaster St Leger Festival races for Thursday 8th September 2022

Doncaster St Leger Festival races for Friday 9th September 2022

Doncaster St Leger Festival races for Saturday 10th September 2022

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