2022 Futurity Trophy Preview, Trends & Analysis

Published: Oct 19, 9:27pm Last Updated: Oct 25, 12:02pm Horse Racing 0 Comments 38 Views

2022 Futurity Trophy Preview

Established in 1961 and run at the Doncaster Racecourse is the Futurity Trophy, a Group 1 race that is run towards the end of the flat season. The race is restricted to two-year-old colts and fillies and is run over a distance of one mile, it's one of the final big one milers of the flat season.

The race has been known originally as the Timeform Gold Cup before the Observer picked up sponsorship in 1965, in 1976 the race picked up the name the Futurity Stakes when William Hill sponsored the race but it is probably best known as the Racing Post Trophy, a title it held between 1989 to 2017.

Our dedicated Doncaster Betting Picks will not only bring you predictions from the OLBG racing tipsters for the upcoming card that includes the Futurity Trophy but will also have predictions for each meeting at Doncaster throughout the season so be sure to head over there.

When looking over the past 20 renewals, a time of 1:36.26 was set by Kameko in 2019, that is the quickest time over that period, the runner was trained by Andrew Balding and ridden by Oisin Murphy. The slowest winning time was set in 2002 when Brian Boru won in a time of 1:46.01, booked to ride was Kevin Darley on this A P O'Brien trained runner.

These are the top three quickest run Futurity Trophy over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2019 - Kameko (1:36.26)
  • 2010 - Casamento (1:37.03)
  • 2016 - Rivet Delight (1:37.08)

How competitive is the Futurity Trophy market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2003 when the race had an over-round of 110%. The race in 2008 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 124%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Futurity Trophy, the over-round has been 116% that means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £116 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Futurity Trophy next time out then you would have back a total of 7 winners. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of +10.59. Before placing your bet on the 2022 Futurity Trophy see which other runners today are being back on the racing predictions page.

Futurity Trophy Past Winners

Here are the Futurity Trophy past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall which the horse came from and also the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Futurity Trophy as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse (Drawn) Info
2021
1:43.61
Luxembourg
2yo 9-1 (2 of 8) 4/6F
Ryan Moore
A P O'Brien
2020
1:41.98
Mac Swiney
2yo 9-1 (7 of 8) 12/1
Kevin Manning
J S Bolger
2019
1:36.26
Kameko
2yo 9-1 (6 of 11) 11/2
Oisin Murphy
Andrew Balding
2018
1:37.72
Magna Grecia
2yo 9-1 (11 of 11) 2/1F
Donnacha O'Brien
A P O'Brien
2017
1:40.12
Saxon Warrior
2yo 9-1 (9 of 12) 13/8F
Ryan Moore
A P O'Brien
2016
1:37.08
Rivet Delight
2yo 9-1 (5 of 10) 11/4
Andrea Atzeni
William Haggas
2015
1:42.19
Marcel
2yo 9-1 (4 of 7) 33/1
Andrea Atzeni
Peter Chapple-Hyam
2014
1:43.82
Elm Park
2yo 9-1 (3 of 8) 13/8F
Andrea Atzeni
Andrew Balding
2013
1:44.83
Kingston Hill
2yo 9-0 (8 of 11) 7/2F
Andrea Atzeni
Roger Varian
2012
1:40.32
Kingsbarns
2yo 9-0 (7 of 7) 15/8F
Joseph O'Brien
A P O'Brien

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Futurity Trophy have been based:

  • GB: 10 winners with an additional 18 placings from 120 runners
  • IRE: 9 winners with an additional 15 placings from 66 runners
  • FR: 1 winner with an additional 1 placing from 2 runners

Futurity Trophy Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the Futurity Trophy over the last 20 renewals is A P O'Brien who has won the race 7 times. Those 7 winners came from Brian Boru (2002), St Nicholas Abbey (2009), Camelot (2011), Kingsbarns (2012), Saxon Warrior (2017), Magna Grecia (2018) & Luxembourg (2021). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Futurity Trophy are Peter Chapple-Hyam (2 wins) & Andrew Balding (2 wins). There is one trainer who has not had the best of times in the Futurity Trophy, John Gosden has sent a total of 11 runners to the race without recording any wins.

Here are some of the top Futurity Trophy trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
A P O'Brien 48-7-19 -30.90 -13.84
Peter Chapple-Hyam 6-2-2 +54.00 +31.63
Andrew Balding 5-2-2 +4.13 +1.28
Brian Meehan 10-1-4 -2.00 +2.40
J S Bolger 7-1-2 +6.00 +2.70
Kevin Ryan 4-1-1 +17.00 +9.50
Roger Varian 3-1-3 +1.50 +2.45
Saeed bin Suroor 3-1-2 +0.75 +0.60
William Haggas 2-1-1 +1.75 +0.65
Michael Bell 2-1-1 +0.50 -0.10

Futurity Trophy Jockey Statistics

The leading jockey in the Futurity Trophy over the last 20 renewals is Andrea Atzeni who has won the race 4 times. Those 4 winners came from Kingston Hill (2013), Elm Park (2014), Marcel (2015) & Rivet Delight (2016). Other jockeys who have recorded multiple wins in the Futurity Trophy are Ryan Moore (2 wins) & Frankie Dettori (2 wins).

Here are some of the top Futurity Trophy jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Andrea Atzeni 7-4-4 +37.88 +22.36
Ryan Moore 6-2-5 -1.70 +3.22
Frankie Dettori 5-2-3 +24.00 +14.15
Jamie Spencer 7-1-3 +1.00 +1.00
Kevin Manning 6-1-2 +7.00 +3.70
Neil Callan 5-1-1 +16.00 +8.50
Oisin Murphy 3-1-2 +3.50 +2.60
Kerrin McEvoy 1-1-1 +2.75 +1.65
Christophe Soumillon 1-1-1 +0.83 +0.00
Seamie Heffernan 7-0-3 -7.00 -2.52

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,1,1,1,3,4,1,2,1,1,1,1,1,1,3,2,1,1,5,2,1

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (88%) - Carried 124-131lbs (LTO)
  • 19 / 20 (82%) - Fewer than 5 starts (Career)
  • 19 / 19 (84%) - Furthest won of 7f-1m
  • 19 / 19 (86%) - Carried 125-131lbs (Last Win)
  • 19 / 20 (86%) - Won within last 3 starts
  • 19 / 20 (87%) - First five on debut
  • 18 / 20 (80%) - Beaten no more 5¼l (Debut)
  • 17 / 20 (54%) - No bigger than 12/1
  • 16 / 20 (32%) - Within first 3 of market

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Doncaster racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Futurity Trophy. If there is anything that you do not understand in this blog, please do leave a comment or alternatively, head over to the Horse Racing Terms and Abbreviations article which is available in the OLBG Betting School section.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not! With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then why share your thoughts on the Futurity Trophy by adding a tip on the race here.

Futurity Trophy Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +15.42 is when runners had 1 career start over the trip. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 2 career starts on the going, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-22.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

  • 2021: Winner in 2 (1,6) [8 Runners]
  • 2020: Winner in 7 (8,1) [8 Runners]
  • 2019: Winner in 6 (4,7) [11 Runners]
  • 2018: Winner in 11 (4,8) [11 Runners]
  • 2017: Winner in 9 (12,4) [12 Runners]

The course which has produced the most winners of the Futurity Trophy is Newmarket (Rowley), there has been a total number of 7 winners of this race who ran at Newmarket (Rowley) last time out. The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Curragh, there has been a total number of 5 winners of this race who ran at Curragh last time out.

Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Futurity Trophy, that stallion is Montjeu who has produced 4 winners (2011,2009,2006,2004).

Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have been disappointed with multiple attempts but no wins in the Futurity Trophy, that stallion is Danehill Dancer who has failed to produce a winner from 5 runners.

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest priced winner was Marcel in 2015 when winning for Peter Chapple-Hyam at odds of 33/1 under the guidance of Andrea Atzeni. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 13 winning favourites in the race. Whilst we wait for the 2022 Futurity Trophy remember you can get daily racing predictions from the top racing tipsters on the best racing tipsters page.

Other Principal races at Doncaster racecourse

Comments

There are no comments here. Be the first to comment...

Please Register / Login to reply to this blog

By using this site you confirm you are 18+ and consent to our use of cookies and processing of personal data as set out in our Privacy Policy
Got it!

We detected you are connecting from United States. We have a different section in our site for users from your country.