You know how punters get lost in too much data or bet blindly? I break down the stats and trends so you can feel confident youâre betting with more than just gut instinct.
2025 National Stakes Preview
The National Stakes is currently named in honour of Vincent O'Brien, it is a Group 1 restricted to two-year-old fillies and colts and is run over a trip of seven furlongs.
The first renewal was way back in 1849 with the legendary trainer Vincent O'Brien winning the race no fewer than fifteen times between 1967 & 1992, which is why it is named in his honour.
For sponsorship purposes, the 2025 renewal of the National Stakes will hold the title of 'Goffs Vincent O'Brien National Stakes'.
National Stakes Information:
Our dedicated Curragh tips page will not only bring you predictions from the OLBG racing tipsters for the upcoming card that includes the National Stakes, but will also have predictions for each meeting at Curragh throughout the season, so be sure to head over there. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information. Head down to the Races Covered during the Irish Champions Festival section for links to these.
Best Horse Racing Betting Sites 2025
How competitive is the National Stakes market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2015 when the race had an over-round of 111%. The race in 2019 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 136%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the National Stakes, the over-round has been 116%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £116 which is bet.
Below you will find the 2025 National Stakes Trends. See which patterns have occurred over the recent renewals that you may be able to use for the next renewal. We also have a section that looks at the National Stakes Trend Analysis. With the field now finalised, we have the National Stakes Trend Shortlist, which is created using the listed trends.
These are the top three quickest-run National Stakes races over the last 20 renewals:
- Pinatubo (1:21.82) in 2019
- Toormore (1:22.67) in 2013
- New Approach (1:23.50) in 2007
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? Over the past 20 renewals, if you had followed the winner of the National Stakes next time out, then you would have backed a total of 9 winners. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since their win at SP next time out would have returned an LSP of -1.76. Ahead of the 2025 National Stakes, why not head over to the racing predictions for tips on other races today?
The runner that holds the record over the past 20 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2008 renewal when Mastercraftsman from A P O'Brien under the guidance of Johnny Murtagh, won in a time of 1:37.59, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Pinatubo, trained by Charlie Appleby and ridden by William Buick set the quickest time of 1:21.82 in the 2019 renewal.
National Stakes Past Winners
Here are the National Stakes' past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won, along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and the total number of runners in the race. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the National Stakes are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 1:25.08 | Scorthy Champ (IRE) 2yo 9-5 (1 of 8) 12/1 | Dylan Browne McMonagle Joseph Patrick O'Brien (IRE) |
| 2023 1:27.54 | Henry Longfellow (IRE) 2yo 9-5 (6 of 4) 10/11F | Ryan Moore A P O'Brien (IRE) |
| 2022 1:29.31 | Al Riffa (FR) 2yo 9-5 (5 of 6) 9/1 | Dylan Browne McMonagle Joseph Patrick O'Brien (IRE) |
| 2021 1:26.27 | Native Trail (GB) 2yo 9-5 (7 of 7) 7/2 | William Buick Charlie Appleby (GB) |
| 2020 1:28.53 | Thunder Moon (IRE) 2yo 9-5 (1 of 10) 15/2 | Declan McDonogh Joseph Patrick O'Brien (IRE) |
| 2019 1:21.82 | Pinatubo (IRE) 2yo 9-3 (6 of 8) 1/3F | William Buick Charlie Appleby (GB) |
| 2018 1:24.81 | Quorto (IRE) 2yo 9-3 (7 of 7) 11/8F | William Buick Charlie Appleby (GB) |
| 2017 1:27.32 | Verbal Dexterity (IRE) 2yo 9-3 (4 of 7) 5/2 | Kevin Manning J S Bolger (IRE) |
| 2016 1:28.28 | Churchill (IRE) 2yo 9-3 (5 of 7) 4/5F | Ryan Moore A P O'Brien (IRE) |
| 2015 1:29.89 | Air Force Blue (USA) 2yo 9-3 (4 of 5) 10/11F | Joseph O'Brien A P O'Brien (IRE) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the National Stakes have been based:
- IRE: 16 winners with an additional 21 placings from 118 runners
- GB: 4 winners with an additional 4 placings from 21 runners
2024 National Stakes Replay
National Stakes Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the National Stakes over the last 20 renewals is A P O'Brien, who has won the race seven times, with those seven winners coming from George Washington (2005), Mastercraftsman (2008), Power (2011), Gleneagles (2014), Air Force Blue (2015), Churchill (2016) and Henry Longfellow (2023). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the National Stakes are Joseph Patrick O'Brien (3 wins) and Charlie Appleby (3 wins).
Here are the National Stakes trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals for trainers who have entries in the 2025 renewal; those not listed have not had a runner. (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| A P O'Brien | 54-7-17 | -38.87 | -32.27 |
| Joseph Patrick O'Brien | 6-3-3 | +25.50 | +15.33 |
| Charlie Appleby | 5-3-3 | +3.21 | +1.25 |
National Stakes Jockey Statistics
The leading jockey in the National Stakes over the last 20 renewals is William Buick, who has won the race three times, with those three winners coming from Quorto (2018), Pinatubo (2019) and Native Trail (2021). The only other jockey to have recorded multiple wins in the National Stakes is Dylan Browne McMonagle (2 wins).
Here are the National Stakes jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals for jockeys who have rides in the 2025 renewal; those not listed have not had a runner. (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Buick (Saba Desert) | 5-3-3 | +3.21 | +1.25 |
| Dylan Browne McMonagle (North Coast) | 2-2-2 | +21.00 | +12.83 |
| Gavin Ryan (Dorset) | 2-0-1 | -2.00 | -0.37 |
| Ronan Whelan (Italy) | 2-0-0 | -2.00 | -2.00 |
2025 National Stakes Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 1, 2, 1, 3, 6, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, (4, 5), 2, 4, 1, 2
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones, as you would expect them to do well.
- 20 / 20 (55%) - No bigger than 12/1
- 20 / 20 (60%) - Within the first 4 of the market
- 20 / 20 (65%) - No bigger than 10/1 (Career)
- 20 / 20 (67%) - Beaten no more -2l (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (71%) - In a field of 8 - 15 (Debut)
- 20 / 20 (71%) - Achieved an RPR of 88+ (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (73%) - Furthest Won 6f - 7f
- 20 / 20 (73%) - Beaten no more -3¼l (Debut)
- 20 / 20 (76%) - Achieved a TS of 45+ (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (79%) - Break of 21 - 121 days (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (79%) - Ran in 1 - 3 races (90 Days)
- 20 / 20 (80%) - Not on HY/FM/STD (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (81%) - No bigger than 10/1 (Career Win)
- 20 / 20 (86%) - Not in FRA/DEU (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (89%) - Placed within last 2 starts
Remember to use the trends listed above, along with the Curragh racing predictions, to see if you can find the winner of the National Stakes. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles covering numerous topics.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, it is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the National Stakes by adding a tip on the race here.
101 Ways to find Winners in Horse Racing
National Stakes Trend Shortlist
Curragh will host the 2025 renewal of the National Stakes, which will be run at 3:50 pm on Sunday, 14th September 2025, and these are the runners who perform best based on the trends, along with the trainer and jockey and their record in the race (Runs-Wins-Places Win LSP / EW LSP):
- 15/15 Gstaad (4/5)
- A P O'Brien (54-7-17 -38.87 / -32.27)
- Christophe Soumillon (0-0-0 0.00 / 0.00)
Others: Italy (14/15), Saba Desert (14/15), North Coast (13/15), Zavateri (13/15) and Dorset (12/15).
*Trainer & Jockey numbers are Runs-Wins-Places Win LSP / EW LSP, Runners, Odds and Trends Passed/Failed correct at the time of posting (2:38 pm Friday 12th September 2025), if no odds were available at the time of posting, then forecasted odds are used.
Saba Desert won the Superlative Stakes last time out, and a total of 7 previous winners of that race from a total of 18 runners went on to win next time out, backing them all would have returned an LSP of +2.32.
Zavateri won the Vintage Stakes last time out, and a total of 4 previous winners of that race from a total of 19 runners went on to win next time out, backing them all would have returned an LSP of -6.67.
National Stakes Trend Analysis
❌ The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 1 career start over further, when backing these, the trend shows a record of 0-28.
Here are the most recent winning draws, along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2024: Winner in 1 (5,3) [8 Runners]
- 2023: Winner in 6 [4 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 5 (6) [6 Runners]
- 2021: Winner in 7 (1) [7 Runners]
- 2020: Winner in 1 (10,6) [10 Runners]
The course which has produced the most winners of the National Stakes is Curragh; there have been a total of 15 winners of this race who ran at Curragh last time out.
Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the National Stakes:
- Galileo (4 Wins)
- Dubawi (2 Wins)
- Oasis Dream (2 Wins)
Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have been disappointed with multiple attempts but no wins in the National Stakes; that stallion is Dansili, who has failed to produce a winner from 5 runners.
Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Scorthy Champ in 2024, winning for Joseph Patrick O'Brien at odds of 12/1 under the guidance of Dylan Browne McMonagle. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals, there have been 10 winning favourites in the race. Before placing your bet on the 2025 National Stakes, head over to see which other runners today are being backed by the best racing tipsters.
Route to the National Stakes
Many trainers will target races to use as prep races before coming to the National Stakes. These are the races which the recent winners ran in before coming here:
| Info | Last Race |
|---|---|
| 2024 - Scorthy Champ Curragh - 3rd of 4 (19/2) | Coolmore Stud Wootton Bassett Irish EBF Futurity Stakes |
| 2023 - Henry Longfellow Curragh - 1st of 5 (2/9) | Coolmore Stud Wootton Bassett Irish EBF Futurity Stakes |
| 2022 - Al Riffa Curragh - 1st of 11 (1/2) | John Ormonde Wexford Sand Irish EBF Maiden |
| 2021 - Native Trail Newmarket (July) - 1st of 9 (11/4) | Superlative Stakes |
| 2020 - Thunder Moon Curragh - 1st of 11 (10/1) | Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden |
| 2019 - Pinatubo Goodwood - 1st of 7 (6/4) | Vintage Stakes |
| 2018 - Quorto Newmarket (July) - 1st of 7 (5/4) | Superlative Stakes |
| 2017 - Verbal Dexterity Curragh - 2nd of 8 (10/3) | GAIN Railway Stakes |
| 2016 - Churchill Curragh - 1st of 4 (1/4) | Galileo European Breeders Fund Futurity Stakes |
| 2015 - Air Force Blue Curragh - 1st of 7 (9/4) | Phoenix Stakes |
Other Principal races during the Irish Champions Festival
Saturday at the Irish Champions Festival
Leopardstown hosts the opening day of the Irish Champions Festival, the highlight of the day being the Irish Champions Stakes, a race dominated by Aidan O'Brien in recent years, with him winning all of the last five renewals and having won the race a total of twelve times.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 13:40 Leopardstown Champions Juvenile Stakes | Green Impact (IRE) 2yo - 5/2 | Mrs John Harrington Shane Foley |
| 14:15 Leopardstown Solonaway Stakes | Diego Velazquez (IRE) 3yo - 10/11 | A P O'Brien Ryan Moore |
| 14:50 Leopardstown Matron Stakes | Porta Fortuna (IRE) 3yo - 5/4 | Donnacha Aidan O'Brien Tom Marquand |
| 15:25 Leopardstown Irish Champion Stakes | Economics (GB) 3yo - 7/4 | William Haggas Tom Marquand |
| 16:35 Leopardstown Petingo Handicap | Fighter (IRE) 3yo - 9/1 | A P O'Brien Wayne Hassett |
| 17:10 Leopardstown Sovereign Path Handicap | Dance Night Andday (IRE) 4yo - 12/1 | Ross O'Sullivan Ronan Whelan |
Sunday at the Irish Champions Festival
The Sunday of the Irish Champions Festival is hosted at the Curragh with four Group 1 races, the highlight being the Irish St Leger. Aidan has not been as dominant in this, with just six wins, three behind both Vincent O'Brien and Dermot Weld.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 13:50 Curragh Bold Lad Sprint Handicap | My Mate Alfie (IRE) 3yo - 12/1 | G M Lyons Colin Keane |
| 14:25 Curragh Blandford Stakes | Hanalia (IRE) 3yo - 12/1 | J P Murtagh Shane Foley |
| 15:00 Curragh Moyglare Stud Stakes | Lake Victoria (IRE) 2yo - 11/2 | A P O'Brien Wayne Lordan |
| 15:35 Curragh Flying Five Stakes | Bradsell (GB) 4yo - 2/1 | Archie Watson Hollie Doyle |
| 16:10 Curragh National Stakes | Scorthy Champ (IRE) 2yo - 12/1 | Joseph Patrick O'Brien Dylan Browne McMonagle |
| 16:45 Curragh Irish St Leger | Kyprios (IRE) 6yo - 2/5 | A P O'Brien Ryan Moore |
| 17:55 Curragh Northfields Handicap | This Songisforyou (USA) 6yo - 9/1 | Emmet Mullins Colin Keane |
Article Contributor Information
We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this National Stakes Preview are at hand, Andy and James. They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for International racing.
James Banting
Expert Guide
Andy Powell
Expert Guide
