You know how punters get lost in too much data or bet blindly? I break down the stats and trends so you can feel confident youâre betting with more than just gut instinct.
2026 National Stakes Preview
The National Stakes is currently named in honour of Vincent O'Brien, it is a Group 1 restricted to two-year-old fillies and colts and is run over a trip of seven furlongs.
The first renewal was way back in 1849 with the legendary trainer Vincent O'Brien winning the race no fewer than fifteen times between 1967 & 1992, which is why it is named in his honour.
National Stakes Information:
Why not use the trends shortlist below to help you narrow down the field and then head over to the dedicated Curragh tips page to see which runners are being supported by the OLBG expert racing tipsters to find yourself a bet? You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information. Head down to the Races Covered during the Irish Champions Festival section for links to these.
Best Horse Racing Betting Sites 2025
How competitive is the National Stakes market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2015 when the race had an over-round of 111%. The race in 2019 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 136%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the National Stakes, the over-round has been 116%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £116 which is bet.
Below you will find the 2026 National Stakes Trends. See which patterns have occurred over the recent renewals that you may be able to use for the next renewal. We also have a section that looks at the National Stakes Trend Analysis.
These are the top three quickest-run National Stakes races over the last 20 renewals:
- Pinatubo (1:21.82) in 2019
- Toormore (1:22.67) in 2013
- New Approach (1:23.50) in 2007
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? Over the past 20 renewals, if you had followed the winner of the National Stakes next time out, then you would have backed a total of 8 winners. Backing all 18 runners who have been out since their win at SP next time out would have returned an LSP of -3.26. Whilst we wait for the 2026 National Stakes, remember you can get daily racing predictions from the expert tipsters on the racing predictions page.
The runner that holds the record over the past 20 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2008 renewal when Mastercraftsman from A P O'Brien under the guidance of Johnny Murtagh, won in a time of 1:37.59, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Pinatubo, trained by Charlie Appleby and ridden by William Buick set the quickest time of 1:21.82 in the 2019 renewal.
National Stakes Past Winners
Here are the National Stakes' past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won, along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and the total number of runners in the race. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the National Stakes are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 1:26.73 | Zavateri (IRE) 2yo 9-5 (1 of 6) 15/2 | Charles Bishop Eve Johnson Houghton (GB) |
| 2024 1:25.08 | Scorthy Champ (IRE) 2yo 9-5 (1 of 8) 12/1 | Dylan Browne McMonagle Joseph Patrick O'Brien (IRE) |
| 2023 1:27.54 | Henry Longfellow (IRE) 2yo 9-5 (6 of 4) 10/11F | Ryan Moore A P O'Brien (IRE) |
| 2022 1:29.31 | Al Riffa (FR) 2yo 9-5 (5 of 6) 9/1 | Dylan Browne McMonagle Joseph Patrick O'Brien (IRE) |
| 2021 1:26.27 | Native Trail (GB) 2yo 9-5 (7 of 7) 7/2 | William Buick Charlie Appleby (GB) |
| 2020 1:28.53 | Thunder Moon (IRE) 2yo 9-5 (1 of 10) 15/2 | Declan McDonogh Joseph Patrick O'Brien (IRE) |
| 2019 1:21.82 | Pinatubo (IRE) 2yo 9-3 (6 of 8) 1/3F | William Buick Charlie Appleby (GB) |
| 2018 1:24.81 | Quorto (IRE) 2yo 9-3 (7 of 7) 11/8F | William Buick Charlie Appleby (GB) |
| 2017 1:27.32 | Verbal Dexterity (IRE) 2yo 9-3 (4 of 7) 5/2 | Kevin Manning J S Bolger (IRE) |
| 2016 1:28.28 | Churchill (IRE) 2yo 9-3 (5 of 7) 4/5F | Ryan Moore A P O'Brien (IRE) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the National Stakes have been based:
- IRE: 15 winners with an additional 21 placings from 116 runners
- GB: 5 winners with an additional 4 placings from 22 runners
2025 National Stakes Replay
National Stakes Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the National Stakes over the last 20 renewals is A P O'Brien, who has won the race six times, with those six winners coming from Mastercraftsman (2008), Power (2011), Gleneagles (2014), Air Force Blue (2015), Churchill (2016) and Henry Longfellow (2023). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the National Stakes are J S Bolger (4 wins), Joseph Patrick O'Brien (3 wins) and Charlie Appleby (3 wins).
Here are some of the top National Stakes trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| A P O'Brien | 55-6-17 | -41.05 | -33.77 |
| J S Bolger | 15-4-6 | -3.85 | -4.72 |
| Joseph Patrick O'Brien | 7-3-3 | +24.50 | +14.33 |
| Charlie Appleby | 6-3-3 | +2.21 | +0.25 |
| Mrs John Harrington | 5-1-2 | -2.00 | -2.05 |
| Eve Johnson Houghton | 1-1-1 | +7.50 | +4.69 |
| Kevin Prendergast | 1-1-1 | +2.25 | +1.41 |
| G M Lyons | 4-0-0 | -4.00 | -4.00 |
| M Halford | 3-0-2 | -3.00 | -0.02 |
| Adrian Murray | 3-0-0 | -3.00 | -1.00 |
National Stakes Jockey Statistics
The leading jockey in the National Stakes over the last 20 renewals is William Buick, who has won the race three times, with those three winners coming from Quorto (2018), Pinatubo (2019) and Native Trail (2021). Other jockeys who have recorded multiple wins in the National Stakes are Ryan Moore (2 wins), Declan McDonogh (2 wins) and Dylan Browne McMonagle (2 wins).
Here are some of the top National Stakes jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Buick | 6-3-3 | +2.21 | +0.25 |
| Ryan Moore | 9-2-7 | -5.29 | -2.42 |
| Declan McDonogh | 6-2-3 | +5.75 | +4.51 |
| Dylan Browne McMonagle | 3-2-2 | +20.00 | +11.83 |
| Seamie Heffernan | 14-1-1 | -10.25 | -11.35 |
| Charles Bishop | 1-1-1 | +7.50 | +4.69 |
| Wayne Lordan | 5-0-2 | -5.00 | -1.57 |
| Colin Keane | 4-0-0 | -4.00 | -4.00 |
| Gavin Ryan | 3-0-1 | -3.00 | -1.37 |
| Shane Foley | 3-0-1 | -3.00 | -1.62 |
2026 National Stakes Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 2, 1, 3, 6, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, (4, 5), 2, 4, 1, 2, 2
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones, as you would expect them to do well.
- 20 / 20 (57%) - No bigger than 12/1
- 20 / 20 (60%) - Within the first 4 of the market
- 20 / 20 (67%) - Beaten no more -2l (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (70%) - In a field of 8 - 15 (Debut)
- 20 / 20 (73%) - Achieved an RPR of 88+ (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (75%) - Not in a G3/LST/Cl4 (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (75%) - Furthest Won 6f - 7f
- 20 / 20 (75%) - Beaten no more -3¼l (Debut)
- 20 / 20 (79%) - Achieved a TS of 45+ (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (80%) - Ran in 1 - 3 races (90 Days)
- 20 / 20 (81%) - Break of 21 - 121 days (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (81%) - Not on HY/FM/STD (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (87%) - No bigger than 18/1 (Career Win)
- 20 / 20 (87%) - Not in FRA/DEU (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (88%) - No bigger than 18/1 (Career)
Remember to use the trends listed above, along with the Curragh racing predictions, to see if you can find the winner of the National Stakes. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles covering numerous topics.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, it is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the National Stakes by adding a tip on the race here.
101 Ways to find Winners in Horse Racing
National Stakes Trend Analysis
✅ The trend factor, which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +9.43, is when runners finished in 1st on debut.
❌ The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 1 career start over further, when backing these, the trend shows a record of 0-27.
Here are the most recent winning draws, along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2025: Winner in 1 (5) [6 Runners]
- 2024: Winner in 1 (5,3) [8 Runners]
- 2023: Winner in 6 [4 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 5 (6) [6 Runners]
- 2021: Winner in 7 (1) [7 Runners]
The course which has produced the most winners of the National Stakes is Curragh; there have been a total of 14 winners of this race who ran at Curragh last time out. The next best course, which has produced the second most winners, is Goodwood; there have been a total of 3 winners of this race who ran at Goodwood last time out.
Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the National Stakes:
- Galileo (4 Wins)
- Dubawi (2 Wins)
- Oasis Dream (2 Wins)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Scorthy Champ in 2024, winning for Joseph Patrick O'Brien at odds of 12/1 under the guidance of Dylan Browne McMonagle. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals, there have been 9 winning favourites in the race. Ahead of the 2026 National Stakes, why not head over to the best racing tipster page to see what the tipsters are backing today?
Route to the National Stakes
Many trainers will target races to use as prep races before coming to the National Stakes. These are the races which the recent winners ran in before coming here:
| Info | Last Race |
|---|---|
| 2025 - Zavateri Goodwood - 1st of 10 (8/1) | Vintage Stakes |
| 2024 - Scorthy Champ Curragh - 3rd of 4 (19/2) | Coolmore Stud Wootton Bassett Irish EBF Futurity Stakes |
| 2023 - Henry Longfellow Curragh - 1st of 5 (2/9) | Coolmore Stud Wootton Bassett Irish EBF Futurity Stakes |
| 2022 - Al Riffa Curragh - 1st of 11 (1/2) | John Ormonde Wexford Sand Irish EBF Maiden |
| 2021 - Native Trail Newmarket (July) - 1st of 9 (11/4) | Superlative Stakes |
| 2020 - Thunder Moon Curragh - 1st of 11 (10/1) | Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden |
| 2019 - Pinatubo Goodwood - 1st of 7 (6/4) | Vintage Stakes |
| 2018 - Quorto Newmarket (July) - 1st of 7 (5/4) | Superlative Stakes |
| 2017 - Verbal Dexterity Curragh - 2nd of 8 (10/3) | GAIN Railway Stakes |
| 2016 - Churchill Curragh - 1st of 4 (1/4) | Galileo European Breeders Fund Futurity Stakes |
Other Principal races during the Irish Champions Festival
Saturday at the Irish Champions Festival
Leopardstown hosts the opening day of the Irish Champions Festival, the highlight of the day being the Irish Champions Stakes, a race dominated by Aidan O'Brien in recent years, with him winning six of the last seven renewals and having won the race a total of thirteen times.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| Champions Juvenile Stakes | Benvenuto Cellini (IRE) 2yo - 1/2 | A P O'Brien Christophe Soumillon |
| Solonaway Stakes | Alakazi (FR) 3yo - 7/2 | J P Murtagh Ben Coen |
| Matron Stakes | Fallen Angel (GB) 4yo - 9/4 | K R Burke James Doyle |
| Irish Champion Stakes | Delacroix (IRE) 3yo - 2/1 | A P O'Brien Christophe Soumillon |
| Petingo Handicap | Happy Pharoah (IRE) 3yo - 9/1 | Donnacha Aidan O'Brien Paddy Harnett |
| Sovereign Path Handicap | Rahmi (IRE) 6yo - 14/1 | J P Murtagh Rory Mulligan |
Sunday at the Irish Champions Festival
The Sunday of the Irish Champions Festival is hosted at the Curragh with four Group 1 races, the highlight being the Irish St Leger. Aidan has not been as dominant in this, with just seven wins, two behind both Vincent O'Brien and Dermot Weld.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| Bold Lad Sprint Handicap | Tango Flare (IRE) 6yo - 50/1 | Patrick T Foley Luke McAteer |
| Blandford Stakes | Barnavara (IRE) 3yo - 6/1 | Mrs John Harrington Shane Foley |
| Moyglare Stud Stakes | Precise (IRE) 2yo - 11/2 | A P O'Brien Ronan Whelan |
| Flying Five Stakes | Arizona Blaze (GB) 3yo - 11/2 | Adrian Murray David Egan |
| National Stakes | Zavateri (IRE) 2yo - 15/2 | Eve Johnson Houghton Charles Bishop |
| Irish St Leger | Al Riffa (FR) 5yo - 3/1 | Joseph Patrick O'Brien Dylan Browne McMonagle |
| Northfields Handicap | Shaool (IRE) 4yo - 11/2 | J P Murtagh Ben Coen |
Article Contributor Information
We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this National Stakes Preview are Andy and James. They both work on the Horse racing tips team, looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for Flat Racing.
James Banting
Expert Guide
Andy Powell
Expert Guide
