Football Manager Expert and Political Betting Specialist across Exchange and Spread Betting Sites
- Nigel Farage-founded Reform UK has a 52% chance of receiving 5-10% of vote according to latest odds
- Farage's recent spell in the I'm A Celeb jungle may well have helped boost Reform UK's popularity
- Labour remain heavy favourites to win the next General Election
Nigel Farage-founded Reform UK has a 52% chance of receiving 5-10% of vote according to latest odds
Reform UK features in a brand new betting market on Smarkets this week which looks at the percentage of the vote that the party will receive at the next General Election.
The right-wing populist political party has steadily grown in popularity since it was founded in 2018 as the Brexit Party before renaming to Reform UK back in January 2021.
Reports earlier this week from The Telegraph say that a "surge in support" is expected for Reform UK in the next election which could cost the Conservative Party up to 35 seats.
The latest odds from bookmakers currently are at 10/11 that there will be a 5-10% share of the vote won by Reform UK at the next General Election.
| Reform UK vote share | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Under 5% | 5/2 | 28.6% |
| 5-10% | 10/11 | 52.4% |
| Over 10% | 9/2 | 18.2% |
What the expert says...
Reform UK standing a host of prospective parliamentary candidates could fatally damage the chances of the Conservatives winning the next General Election.
Farage's recent spell in the I'm A Celeb jungle may well have helped boost Reform UK's popularity
Nigel Farage was a contestant on this year's series of I'm A Celebrity Get Me Out Of Here! which wrapped up on Sunday night with Sam Thompson winning the show.
Farage finished third, exactly the same spot as Matt Hancock the year before, and his stint in the series may well have boosted his popularity even further.
The former MEP stepped down as leader of Reform UK back in March 2021 but still sits as an Honorary President for the party.
What the expert says...
The spectre of Nigel Farage throwing his full support behind Reform UK has alerted the bookmakers and made the opinion pollsters amend their General Election voting percentages.
Labour remain heavy favourites to win the next General Election
Labour are still heavy favourites to win the next General Election with the odds now suggesting an 88% chance that the party gains the most seats.
We're still unsure when the next General Election will take place, with Rishi Sunak having until January 2025 to call one for the UK.
It looks like he'll be a loser when it is called though with his Conservative party out to 5/1 to win the most seats followed by Liberal Democrats and Reform UK who are the joint third favourites at 100/1.
| Next UK General Election - Most Seats | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 1/8 | 88.9% |
| Conservatives | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| Liberal Democrats | 100/1 | 1.0% |
| Reform UK | 100/1 | 1.0% |
| Green Party | 500/1 | 0.2% |
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