Who Will Be The Next President Of The United States

Published: Mar 24, 3:05pm Last Updated: Mar 1, 10:15am Political Betting 0 Comments 1219 Views

US Election 2020 Update

Since the vote on the 3rd November 2020 there have been claims from the incumbent President Trump that he is not going to accept the reported outcome. 

He cites voter fraud, especially from postal votes, and has threatened legal action. 

Who will be President in 2024?

Check out the latest betting odds on the new 2024 blog.

Race For The White House 2024

It seems unlikely that despite the loud noises made by the President that Joe Biden will not be inaugurated in January. 

From a betting point of view, those who supported Biden didn't have too many worries, despite Trump doing a little better than many had forecast. 

The table below shows the US Election 2020 results, the percentage of votes are estimated with not all votes counted. 

State Winner Electoral Votes Percentage Of Votes (EST)
Alabama Trump - Republican 9 63%
Alaska Trump - Republican 3 55%
Arizona Biden - Democrat 11 50.1%
Arkansas Trump - Republican 6 64%
California Biden - Democrat 55 65%
Colorado Biden - Democrat 9 57%
Connecticut Biden - Democrat 7 60%
Delaware Biden - Democrat 3 60%
District Of Colombia Biden - Democrat 3 94%
Florida Trump - Republican 29 53%
Georgia Biden - Democrat 16 49.8%
Hawaii Biden - Democrat
4 65%
Idaho Trump - Republican
4 65%
Illinois Biden - Democrat
20 59%
Indiana Trump - Republican
11 58%
Iowa Trump - Republican
6 55%
Kansas Trump - Republican
6 58%
Kentucky Trump - Republican
8 63%
Louisiana  Trump - Republican
8 59%
Maine Biden- Democrat 4 55%
Maryland Biden- Democrat
10 66%
Massachusetts Biden- Democrat
11 67%
Michigan Biden - Democrat 16 52%
Minnesota Biden - Democrat 10 54%
Mississipi Trump - Republican
6 58%
Missouri Trump - Republican
10 58%
Montana Trump - Republican
3 58%
Nebraska Trump - Republican
5 59%
Nevada Biden - Democrat
6 51%
New Hampshire Biden - Democrat
4 54%
New Jersey Biden - Democrat
14 58%
New Mexico Biden - Democrat
5 56%
New York Biden - Democrat
29 57%
North Carolina Trump - Republican
15 49.9%
North Dakota Trump - Republican 3 67%
Ohio Trump - Republican
18 54%
Oklahoma Trump - Republican
7 67%
Oregon Biden - Democrat
7 58%
Pennsylvania Biden - Democrat
20 50%
Rhode Island Biden - Democrat
4 60%
South Carolina Trump - Republican
9 56%
South Dakota Trump - Republican
3 63%
Tennessee Trump - Republican
11 61%
Texas Trump - Republican
38 53%
Utah Trump - Republican
6 60%
Vermont Biden Democrat 3 68%
Virginia Biden - Democrat 13 55%
Washington Biden - Democrat 12 60%
West Virginia Trump - Republican
5 69%
Wisconsin Biden - Democrat
10 50.1%
Wyoming Trump - Republican
3 71%


Betting Odds For Next US President

The betting on who will be the next President of The United States now looks like a two-horse race. 

When betting opened Donald Trump was clear favourite and odds on to be the next president.

The political bookmakers then had the favourites flip-flopping.

However, Trump needs a real boost as he is falling behind the favourite Joe Biden in the race for US President.  

We can expect lots more betting changes in the days to come, but Joe Biden looks like being sent off as US Election favourite on the night. 

US Presidential Bookmakers

You do get a feel for which way the bookmaker's odds compilers feel about each US presidential candidate. 

Donald Trump

When you use odds comparison as we do at OLBG, you can check which bookmaker has the best price on an event. 

The odds compilers take everything into account when pricing up an event.

With so much money being wagered on the US President betting, they need to make sure they do not make a pricing error, as it could cost them heavily.  

Bigger Prices and More Generous On Biden:

Bigger Prices and More Generous On Trump:

In such a closely fought race all the online bookmakers will be looking to offer the best US President odds, even if these odds are just 1 or 2 points better. 

Donald Trump Breaks the 2/1 Barrier

Donald Trump at 2/1 is a significant price with bookmakers in a two-horse race. Their odds compilers must be fairly confident that Joe Biden is on his way to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

Joe Biden has come in for support from a yearly high of 8.0. 

Joe Biden

Donald Trump has drifted from odds on to odds-against. 

If Joe Biden wins he will become the 46th President.

The US Election is scheduled for the 3rd of November 2020.

Trading The Next President Of The United States On Betting Exchanges

On the Betfair Exchange, you can see the huge amounts that have been matched on the next US President market.

27/08/2020 = £63,227,339 

24/09/2020 = £91,341,708

05/10/2020 = £105,018,361

12/10/2020 = £12,708,401

19/10/2020 = £141,575,590

25/10/2020 = £175,919,055

01/11/2020 = £265,254,718

05/11/2020 = £483,159,037

09/11/2020 = 568,659,224

This market is absolutely ripe for betting exchange trading because every blip, nuance, reaction, gaffe, scandal, and foot in the mouth comment will be incessantly reported in the next 3 months, and this reporting moves prices.  

If you are a Fox News watcher you will be happy to hear the reporting on how your man (Trump) is doing.

If you favour CNN then most of the positivity will be around Joe Biden. 

The Newspapers, TV, and Social Media will be in equal measure horrified or happy at both Biden or Trump.

All this glee, outrage, and partisanship leads to market volatility, which for traders can be a godsend if you are on the right side of it. 

A slight movement in the betting exchange odds from Betfair, Betdaq, or Smarkets can be snapped up, and you could be sitting in a profitable position come US Election day. 

If you look below you can view daily betting exchange odds for both Trump and Biden from the end of August 2020. 

You can see the daily movement of prices all offering opportunities to back and lay both men. 

Within each day there is also plenty of US Election odds changes,  in many cases, you can back a candidate at 9.00 AM, and lay him at 10.30 AM, or vice versa.

We can expect a whole lot more odds movement in the weeks to come, with both the Democrat and Republican party machines going into overdrive, as they look to secure victory for their candidate. 

You obviously need a betting exchange account to make these trades. 

Click here for a review of the best betting exchange accounts


W/E 01/09 WED WED THU THU FRI FRI SAT SAT SUN SUN MON MON TUE TUE
Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay
Biden 1.83 1.84 1.87 1.89 1.97 1.98 1.9 1.91 1.93 1.94 1.94 1.95 1.99 2.04
 Trump 2.24 2.26 2.18 2.22 2.06 2.08 2.16 2.18 2.1 2.12 2.12 2.14 2.04 2.08


W/E 08/09 WED WED THU THU FRI FRI SAT SAT SUN SUN MON MON TUE TUE
Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay
Biden 2.00 2.02 1.99 2.02 1.99 2.00 1.98 2.00 1.96 1.97 1.94 1.95 1.85 1.86
Trump 2.04 2.06 2.02 2.06 2.06 2.08 2.08 2.1 2.12 2.14 2.14 2.16 2.26 2.28


W/E 15/09 WED WED THU THU FRI FRI SAT SAT SUN SUN MON MON TUE TUE
Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay
Biden 1.88 1.89 1.87 1.88 1.86 1.87 1.87 1.88 1.88 1.89 1.89 1.9 1.88 1.89
Trump 2.2 2.22 2.22 2.24 2.22 2.24 2.18 2.2 2.2 2.22 2.18 2.2 2.18 2.2


W/E 22/09 WED WED THU THU FRI FRI SAT SAT SUN SUN MON MON TUE TUE
Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay
Biden 1.88 1.89 1.86 1.87 1.82 1.83 1.83 1.84 1.85 1.86 1.85 1.86 1.83 1.84
Trump 2.18 2.2 2.20 2.22 2.22 2.26 2.23 2.26 2.24 2.26 2.24 2.28 2.26 2.28


W/E 29/09 WED WED THU THU FRI FRI SAT SAT SUN SUN MON MON TUE TUE
Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay
Biden 1.84 1.85 1.83 1.84 1.84 1.85 1.83 1.84 1.82 1.83 1.78 1.79 1.79 1.8
Trump 2.2 2.22 2.24 2.26 2.22 2.24 2.24 2.26 2.28 2.3 2.34 2.38 2.3 2.32


W/E 06/10 WED WED THU THU FRI FRI SAT SAT SUN SUN MON MON TUE TUE
Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay
Biden 1.68 1.69 1.67 1.68 Susp @1.56. After Suspension 1.58 Susp @1.58. After Suspension @1.59 Suspended Suspended Suspended Suspended Suspended Suspended 1.54 1.55
Trump 2.52 2.54 2.54 2.56 Susp@2.98. After Suspension 2.88 Susp @3.1. After Suspension @2.92 Suspended Suspended Suspended Suspended Suspended Suspended 2.94 2.96


W/E 13/10 WED WED THU THU FRI FRI SAT SAT SUN SUN MON MON TUE TUE
Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay
Biden 1.49 1.5 1.53 1.54 1.52 1.53 1.49 1.5 1.51 1.52 1.44 1.45 1.48 1.49
Trump 3.1 3.15 2.94 2.96 2.96 2.98 3.1 3.15 2.98 3.0 3.25 3.3 3.1 3.15


W/E 20/10 WED WED THU THU FRI FRI SAT SAT SUN SUN MON MON TUE TUE
Back/Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back  Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay
Biden 1.5 1.51 1.51 1.52 1.53 1.54 1.58 1.59 1.65 1.66 1.67 1.68 1.6 1.61
Trump 3.0 3.05 2.98 3.0 2.92 2.94 2.82 2.84 2.56 2.58 2.5 2.52 2.66 2.68


W/E 27/10 WED WED THU THU FRI FRI SAT SAT SUN SUN MON MON TUE TUE
Back/Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back  Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay
Biden 1.57 1.58 1.52 1.53 1.52 1.53 1.50 1.52 1.47 1.48 1.5 1.51 1.52 1.53
Trump 2.76 2.78 2.92 2.94 2.9 2.92 2.96 2.98 3.1 3.15 3.0 3.05 2.94 2.96


W/E 03/11 WED WED THU THU FRI FRI SAT SAT SUN SUN MON MON TUE TUE
Back/Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay
Biden 1.51 1.52 1.53 1.54 1.52 1.53 1.51 1.52 1.51 1.52 1.5 1.51 1.6 1.61
Trump 2.94 2.96 2.88 2.9 2.92 2.94 2.96 2.98 2.96 2.98 2.96 2.98 2.64 2.66

ELECTION NIGHT

W/E 10/11 WED WED THU THU FRI FRI
Back/Lay Back Lay Back Lay Back Lay
Biden 3.45 3.5 1.2 1.21 1.06 1.07
Trump 1.4 1.41 5.9 6.0 16 17

As you can see from the highlighted odds the biggest Betfair Exchange price Joe Biden has been available to back is 2.0, the biggest price for Donald Trump has been 3.25 (since 26th August 2020). 

Momentum is with the Democratic candidate  Joe Biden.

We expect that Trump and his advisors are waiting to unleash some real negative campaigning as the election day draws nearer, it will get very dirty!


US Election Presidential Debates

As we know in the UK televised debates between political leaders can be incredibly popular. 

The Final Televised Debate

Less chaotic than previous presidential debates, however, it felt a bit flat with no candidate seemingly the winner.

First Debate Aftermath

The betting odds show that Joe Biden was the clear winner of the opening debate.

The candidate's performances are scrutinised and the news organisations regularly poll for which candidate comes out on top.

US Presidential Debate

The 1st debate is being moderated by a Fox News Anchor. This should favour the President.

With such a close US election these debates may prove the difference between whether Trump has to ring U Haul, or sleepy Joe Biden gets his head down on the White House pillows.   

Donald Trump Debate Performance

If Trump performs well in the 1st debate his drifting price should reverse and winning trades can be made on the Exchanges.

There should be plenty of betting odds changes during and after the debates, you will need to review your betting and trading positions on these important evenings. 

The schedule of these debates is below. 

Date Venue  Candidates
September 29th University of Notre Dame, Indiana Trump/Biden
October 7th University Of Salt Lake City, Utah Pence/Harris
October 15th University Of Michigan, Michigan Trump/Biden
October 22nd Belmont University, Tennessee Trump/Biden

Which Party Will Win The White House?

In the winning party betting market, the Democrats are favourites at  1.19 those odds are with the Betfair Exchange. 

The Republicans are at a best price of 5.9, those odds are again with Betfair.

The popular vote betting is the total amount of votes cast for each candidate. 

We saw in 2016 that Hilary Clinton despite losing the race for President actually received nearly 3 million more votes than Donald Trump. 

However you do not win the US Election by amassing the most votes, you win by winning a majority of states. 

Biden as you can see by the betting in 2020 is expected to win the popular vote. 

Over the last few weeks, the Democrats have been supported and the Republicans have notably drifted. 

Any wrong move from either party or candidate will see those odds radically alter. 

US Election Votes

Hilary Clinton in 2016 received more votes (65,853,514) than Donald Trump (62,984,828), but Trump won the electoral vote (304) to (227).

Because the prices are so tight trading opportunities with a spread betting firm or betting exchange could bring you rewards.

Especially if you can predict which party will make the least errors in the lead up to the US election. 

State By State Presidential Elections

We looked back to the last 5 US Presidential Elections (2000 -2016) to see if we could get a handle on which states may offer betting opportunities. 

The bookmakers offer odds on a state by state basis. 

Smarkets the newest betting exchange has some excellent US state betting markets and is worth a visit.

As of the beginning of November 2020 the following states were the hardest to call as you can see by the odds. 

All odds in the table supplied by the Betfair Exchange. 

STATE DEMOCRAT ODDS REPUBLICAN ODDS
FLORIDA 2.2 1.78
NORTH CAROLINA 1.9 2.08
ARIZONA 1.88
2.2
OHIO 3.1 1.45
GEORGIA 2.36 1.72
IOWA 3.25 1.39
WISCONSIN 1.26 4.5
TEXAS 3.4 1.4
PENNSYLVANIA  1.53 2.86
NEW HAMPSHIRE 1.22 5.44
NEVADA 1.2 5.3
MINNESOTA 1.26 4.7
MICHIGAN 1.26 4.7

Smarkets currently make Florida and North Carolina the closest states they could go either way. 


States highlighted Red or Blue below generally go to those parties, Red is Republican, Blue is a Democrat. 

Swing States

Michigan was taken by Trump in 2016 by just 0.3% percent of votes, 47.6% to 47.3%.

The figures 1-2-3-4-5 are the number of times that particular state has returned that party in the last 5 elections. 

A 5-0 scoreline, either way, does not mean that the state cannot turn, but it is less likely.

Individual states may have particular circumstances that you are aware of, betting earlier is likely to offer better value. 

The states of Ohio and Florida are often an indication of whether it has been a good election night for the Democrats or the Republicans. 

State Democrat Republican
Alabama 0 5
Alaska 0 5
Arizona 0 5
Arkansaw 0 5
California 5 0
Colorado 3 2
Connecticut 5 0
Deleware 5 0
DC 5 0
Florida 2 3
Georgia 0 5
Hawaii 5 0
Idaho 0 5
Illinois 5 0
Indiana 1 4
Iowa 3 2
Kansas 0 5
Kentucky 0 5
Lousiana 0 5
Maine 5 0
Maryland 5 0
Massachusetts 5 0
Michigan 4 1
Minnesotta 5 0
Mississippi 0 5
Missouri 0 5
Montana 0 5
Nebraska 0 5
Nevada 3 2
New Hampshire 4 1
New Jersey 5 0
New Mexico 4 1
New York 5 0
North Carolina 1 4
North Dakota 0 5
Ohio 2 3
Oklahoma 0 5
Oregon 5 0
Pennsylvania 4 1
Rhode Island 5 0
South Carolina 0 5
South Dakota 0 5
Tennessee 0 5
Texas 0 5
Utah 0 5
Vermont 5 0
Virginia 3 2
Washington 5 0
West Virginia 0 5
Wisconsin 4 1
Wyoming 0 5

 

Last 10 US Presidents

Since 1900 there have been 13 Republicans and 8 Democratic presidents.

President
Term Dates
Party
Donald J Trump 2017 - Republican
Barack Obama 2009 -2017 Democrat
George W Bush 2001 -2209 Republican
Bill Clinton 1993-2001 Democrat
George H W Bush 1989-1993 Republican
Ronald Regan 1981 -1989 Republican
Jimmy Carter 1977-1981 Democrat
Gerald Ford 1974-1977 Republican
Richard Nixon  1969-1974 Republican
Lyndon B Johnson 1963 -1969 Democrat

Two Term Presidents Of The United States

There have been 13 presidents who have served two full terms with Franklin Delano Roosevelt serving 3 terms before and during the 2nd World War. 

President Term Dates Party
Franklin Delano Roosevelt 1933-1945 Democrat


President Term Dates Party
Barack Obama 2009 -2017 Democrat
George W Bush 2001-2009 Republican
Bill Clinton 1993-2001 Democrat
Ronald Reagan  1981-1989 Republican
Dwight D Eisenhower 1953-1961 Republican
Woodrow Wilson 1913-1921 Democrat
Grover Cleveland  1885 -1897 (Non Consecutive Terms) Democrat
Ulysses S Grant 1869-1877 Republican
Andrew Jackson 1829-1837 Democrat
James Monroe 1817-1825 Democratic-Republican 
James Madison 1809 -1817 Democratic-Republican
Thomas Jefferson 1801-1809 Democratic Republican

5 Youngest and Oldest Presidents Of The United States

Theodore Roosevelt assumed the Presidency when William Mckinley was assassinated in New York. 

President Age Party
Theodore Roosevelt 42 Republican
John F Kennedy 43 Democrat
Bill Clinton  46 Democrat
Ulysses S Grant 46 Republican
Barack Obama 47 Democrat


When Donald Trump was inaugurated in 2017 he became the oldest person to take office, surpassing Ronald Reagan.  

President
Age
Party
Donald J Trump 70 Republican
Ronald Reagan 69 Republican
William Henry Harrison 68 Whig
James Buchanan 65 Democrat
George HW Bush 64 Republican


If Joe Biden is elected as the next president he will become the oldest President, in January 2021 Biden will be 78. 


Author

Nigel Skinner (Nors)

I am a UK based betting blogger who has been involved in the betting industry for over 30 years. 

I learnt my trade at William Hill and will be ever grateful to them, despite being woefully underpaid! 

I specialize in finding value betting opportunities where I think the bookies have made an error. 

Horse Racing, Football, and the very popular speciality betting markets are where you can normally find me. 

You can follow me on OLBG, Twitter, Linkedin. 

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