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Who will be the next leader of the Labour Party?
With Labour's recent victory in the July 2024 General Election, Keir Starmer has taken office as Prime Minister. As a result, political betting sites are buzzing with speculation about his eventual successor as Labour leader.
When betting on the next Labour leader, consider potential candidates like Andy Burnham, Rachel Reeves, and Wes Streeting. Analyze their current roles, public support, and potential to rise within the party.
Expect betting sites to offer competitive odds, candidate profiles, and market insights to help inform your wagers. Stay updated on political trends and party dynamics to make informed bets in this niche market.
Next Labour Leader Betting Odds
With the Labour Party winning the general election in July 2024, the odds have settled down quite a bit and levelled out with little to choose between those considered to have the greatest chance, with three favourites at 7/1 and a host of others just behind in double figures.
| Next Labour Leader Candidates | Odds | Probability | Best Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Streeting | 7/1 | 12.5% | Star Sports |
| Andy Burnham | 7/1 | 12.5% | Star Sports |
| Rachel Reeves | 7/1 | 12.5% | Star Sports |
| Yvette Cooper | 11/1 | 8.3% | William Hill |
| Lisa Nandy | 11.1 | 8.3% | Betfred |
| Bridget Phillipson | 11/1 | 8.3% | Star Sports |
The Manchester Mayor
Top 10 Political Betting Websites in the UK
What is Betting on the Next Labour Leader?
Quite simply making a bet on The Next leader of the Labour Party is making a prediction as to which candidate from the list of possibles will be named as the next to hold that position.
Much like making a bet on the outcome of any event, all you have to do to win is make a correct prediction and make the bet with an online bookmaker offering odds on the market.
Labour Party Betting Markets
In addition to making this prediction, there are a host of other Labour Party Leader betting options with some betting sites specialising in political betting.
Next Labour Leader
This market will be the most popular and is the prediction of who will be the next Labour Leader after Sir Keir Starmer
When Will Sir Keir Starmer Exit
If you want to find some possibly larger odds to have a speculative bet, how about predicting the date, month, or even year that Kier Starmer will exit the position of the Labour Leader?
Gender of Next Labour Leader
As mentioned, there has yet to be a permanent Female Labour leader, but in a match bet you can choose either male or Female as to the gender of the next Labour leader with some online betting firms.
How To Place A Bet On The Next Labour Leader
There is a simple process to making a bet on any of political betting market such as the next Labour Leader.
- Find an online betting site offering odds and bets on the contender you think will be appointed.
- Use the bookie index to scroll down to the politics tab.
- Find the Labour Leader betting market.
- Make that selection and add them to your bet slip.
- Select the stake you wish to wager
- Confirm your stake and bet.
That's it, you are done, your wager is on, and now all you have to do is wait until a new Labour Leader is announced.
If you make the right selection, you win, if your prediction is incorrect you will lose the stake you have wagered just as with any normal bet.
N.B: If your bookmaker does not have the Labour Leader market try some of the options on our best bookmakers page.
Next Labour Leader Contenders
The queue for the next leader of the Labour Party will be a long one now they assumed government in the last General election, but the main protagonists, as before, head the markets as we see above, albeit with less of a clear favourite. A position Andy Burnham had for some time.
Here are the main contenders for next Labour Party leader
Andy Burnham
Was thought to be "yesterday's man" after heavily losing two leadership races but the 52-year-old politician has reinvented himself as the most dynamic mayor in the country.
His stewardship of Manchester during the COVID19 pandemic has raised his profile immeasurably; he looks like a serious challenger if there is a ballot for the next leader of the party.
Rachel Reeves
is the Shadow Chancellor and looks like a true ally of Sir Keir, her closeness to him may do her no good if Sir Keir leaves or is replaced as Labour leader.
Wes Streeting
Chris McAndrew, CC BY 3.0 , via Wikimedia Commons
Wes Streeting is the Labour MP for Ilford North and Shadow Secretary of State for Health & Social Care, and a Vice President of the Local Government Association. He was first elected to Parliament in 2015 and has served as a Shadow Minister for Schools and Child Poverty as well as Shadow Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury. As a member of the House of Commons Treasury Committee, he has been a strong advocate for public services and social justice.
Wes is an ardent supporter of LGBT+ rights and is a patron of LGBT+ Labour. He also champions disadvantage young people, often speaking out against inequality in education, health and employment opportunities.
Lisa Nandy
Lisa Nandy seems to have done well from the reshuffle (November 2021) she will be taking on Conservative Michael Gove as Shadow Levelling Up Secretary.
Angela Rayner
There could be tensions between Sir Keir and Angela Rayner after he sacked her as Party Chair in May.
The 41-year-old MP for Ashton -Under - Lyne has been forced to deny that she is plotting a challenge; she would receive plenty of support from those on the left wing of the party, who, to say the least, are unhappy with the current direction Starmer is taking the party.
Yvette Cooper
David Woolfall, CC BY 3.0 , via Wikimedia Commons
is back at the heart of the Labour Party with a promotion to Shadow Home Secretary, she previously held this position under Ed Miliband's leadership.
Other Possible Candidates
Then there is the skillful politician Sadiq Khan who could garner support from all sides of the Labour membership; we have seen how other London Mayors progressed with their careers. Khan could easily tread the same path and ultimately end up at Number 10.
Rosena Allin has only been an MP since 2016 after she won the Tooting seat of London Mayor Sadiq Khan; her rise through the ranks of the Labour Party has been spectacular.
Whilst David Lammy is still at 50/1 to be the next Labour leader, which is a huge price for the new shadow Foreign Secretary.
The last Labour Foreign Secretary to move into Number 10 was Jim Callaghan in the 1970s, but as one of the great offices of state, plenty of Conservatives have been Foreign Secretary before taking office as Prime Minister including John Major, William Hague, and Boris Johnson.
Next Labour Leader Betting News Diary Timeline
The betting odds for The Next Labour leader are always on the move as one rumour on who could step into the role proceeds the next. It would seem every week, a new name is put forward as a potential new Labour leader.
Here is a round-up of the Next Labour leader Betting News from our OLBG News feed
4th October 2024
Next Labour Leader Betting Odds: Bookies continue to offer odds on next Labour Leader after Keir Starmer's tough start to life as PM continues!
6th August 2024
Next Labour Leader Betting Odds: Bookies already giving odds on who would replace Keir Starmer as Labour Leader after tough start as Prime Minister!
29th June 2023
Next Labour Leader Betting Odds: Andy Burnham now CLEAR FAVOURITE at 4/1 to be next Labour Leader as betting market changes around!
Things to Consider When Betting on the Next Leader of Labour
Before betting on the next Labour Leader with real money, given that your money is at stake, there are a few things you should consider, not least the fact that if you make an incorrect prediction, you will lose your money.
When Will Sir Keir Starmer Exit?
The actual date of Kier Starmer's departure will be a key element in determining who will be the strongest candidate at the time. While that is a little more difficult to predict beforehand, depending on the popular consensus of his departure date, it may give a clue as to who might be in the best position to succeed at the time.
| Keir Stamer Exit | Best Betting Odds |
|---|---|
| 2025 or later | 1/80 |
| 2024 | 10/1 |
Odds Updated July 2024
How Often Does the Favourite in the Betting Win?
It is worth remembering that recent Labour leadership battles were not won by the early betting's favourite.
In 2020, Sir Keir Starmer held off Rebecca Long-Bailey and Lisa Nandy after RLB was installed as an early favourite, being seen as the natural successor to Jeremy Corbyn.
However, Starmer came on strong and ultimately won easily, as shown in the Labour Party Leader results below.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Sir Keir Starmer | 275,780 | 56.2% |
| Rebecca Long-Bailey | 135,218 | 27.6% |
| Lisa Nandy | 79,597 | 16.2% |
In 2015 after Miliband’s departure, Andy Burnham and Chuka Umunna were the early favourites to take the leadership.
Again, this highlights the volatility of leadership battles in that Umunna didn’t even run for selection and is no longer a member of the Labour Party, having eventually defected to the Liberal Democrats in June 2019.
Jeremy Corbyn won the 2015 leadership but was initially seen as the token left-wing candidate and made it into the leadership race with the lowest number of MP nominations of the four candidates.
Nevertheless, momentum eventually swung Corbyn’s way, and another similarly unconsidered Labour leader coming from left field is not impossible.
In 2010, the elected Ed Miliband wasn't the favourite for the role. Instead, his brother David was strongly tipped to take over the post vacated by Gordon Brown. In the end, it was the younger brother, Ed, who prevailed and defied the bookmakers.
So don’t be put off if your fancy is currently a big price.
Is there pressure on Labour for a Female Leader?
The Labour party has had twenty more permanent leaders since Keir Hardie became its first official leader in 1906.
All twenty-one leaders have been men, although there have been two acting female leaders in Margaret Beckett and Harriet Harman (twice).
As Labour is now the only main British political party that has not had a permanent female leader many would like to see that change.
Can we glean anything from looking at the age or length of time as an MP when other major parties elected a female leader?
| Leader's name | Political party | Date became an MP | Date elected party leader | Years as MP before elected leader | Age when made party leader |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liz Truss | Conservative | 6th May 2010 | 6th September 2022 | 12 years | 47 |
| Margaret Thatcher | Conservative | 8th October 1959 | 11th February 1975 | 15 years | 49 |
| Nicola Sturgeon | Scottish National Party | 6th May 1999 | 14th November 2014 | 15 years | 44 |
| Theresa May | Conservative | 1st May 1997 | 11th July 2016 | 19 years | 59 |
| Jo Swinson | Liberal Democrats | 5th May 2005 | 22nd July 2019 | 14 years | 39 |
It's difficult to say how much of a trend we can associate with age at an election and time as an MP before being elected leader.
It is interesting to see that all four of the above leaders had considerable experience as members of parliament before becoming leaders.
With fourteen to nineteen years of experience between the four leaders when elected, the years of MP experience for some of the current Labour leadership challengers look on the short side.
Previous Labour Leaders
With the Labour leadership battle likely to receive increasing media attention, it may pay to have details of the key traits of past Labour leaders to see if there are any trends we can use when placing a bet on the current set of candidates.
Several media political pundits have questioned whether being based in London could negatively affect any prospective leader after losing so many traditional Labour seats in the North.
Indeed, if we look at the table below of the last eleven Labour leaders in the previous sixty-five years, only the most recent leaders of Starmer and Corbyn represented a London constituency.
| Labour Leader | Age when elected | Date elected leader | Years as an MP when elected leader | Constituency | Geographic area |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sir Keir Starmer | 57 | 4th April 2020 | 5 | Holborn and St Pancras | London |
| Jeremy Corbyn | 66 | 12th September 2015 | 32 | Islington North | London |
| Ed Miliband | 40 | 25th September 2010 | 5 | Doncaster North | Yorkshire |
| Gordon Brown | 56 | 24th June 2007 | 24 | Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath | Scotland |
| Tony Blair | 41 | 21st July 1994 | 11 | Sedgefield | North East |
| John Smith | 53 | 18th July 1992 | 22 | Monklands East | Scotland |
| Neil Kinnock | 41 | 2nd October 1983 | 13 | Islwyn | Wales |
| Michael Foot | 67 | 10th November 1980 | 35 | Ebbw Vale | Wales |
| James Callaghan | 64 | 5th April 1976 | 30 | Cardiff South East | Wales |
| Harold Wilson | 46 | 14th February 1963 | 17 | Huyton | North West |
| Hugh Gaitskell | 49 | 14th December 1955 | 10 | Leeds South | Yorkshire |
Following on from the idea of a London-based leader, there have been twenty-one full-time leaders of the Labour Party, with only four representing a London-based constituency.
If the geographical area of the candidate's constituency is going to be a consideration, it may be if Starmer was not to become Prime Minister.
The political arena is very different from when Hugh Gaitskell and Harold Wilson were Leaders of the Labour Party, but perhaps a leader's previous experience as an MP should be considered.
Keir Starmer and Ed Miliband, two of the leaders on the above list, had less than ten years of experience as MPs when they became leaders.
Article Author Information
Nigel Skinner
Blog Content Manager
Nigel is one of OLBG's senior editors with 19 years of industry experience. Today he specialises in researching and writing about the betting angles to political and mainstream news stories and being the OLBG in-house expert on 'next football manager' betting markets.
Specialist Subjects🔬📚
⚽️👨💼 Nigel is an Arsenal fan first and foremost but has an unrivalled knowledge of English football managers at every level. Meticulously putting together our Next Manager articles, Nigel can quite possibly name you every manager of every club in the land, not to mention a pretty good eye for predicting replacements when changes happen.
📈📊📉 A long-time exchange trader and spread betting fan, Nigel is our go-to for advice on the subjects and uses them daily in his own betting activity.
🗳️💼 Finally, Nigel loves his politics and [some would say] has an unhealthy interest in the day-to-day events in the UK's political landscape, contributing to all our Political betting content and new pieces.
