United Kingdom Local Elections Betting Guide (Odds, History, Contenders)

Updated: 1752 Politics & Current Affairs

The UK local elections should indicate how the political parties are viewed in the country. Have the Conservatives clawed back some of their supporters after their devastating loss in North Shropshire? Has Sir Keir Starmer moved the needle for Labour and thrown off the Corbyn shackles. Should we be taking the Lib Dems seriously as a credible alternative to the "big two" The bookmakers will have betting odds on a range of local election markets.

United Kingdom Local Elections Betting Guide (Odds, History, Contenders)
Nigel Skinner Blog Content Manager

Football Manager Expert and Political Betting Specialist across Exchange and Spread Betting Sites

Betting on local elections with online bookmakers has become an increasingly popular form of speculative investment, particularly among political enthusiasts and individuals looking for an exciting way to engage in current events. This type of betting involves wagering on political outcomes, particularly the results of local elections. Various betting platforms offer a range of markets, allowing bettors to place bets on candidates, parties, or even specific policies.

🔮Predict local election results for a fun, engaging, and potentially 💰 rewarding experience. This is your complete local elections betting guide.

This alternative form of gambling can be both entertaining and rewarding, providing individuals with a unique way to engage in political discourse and process. However, betting on local elections is not without risk and requires a deep understanding of political trends, each candidate's platform, among other variables, to predict the election outcomes accurately. 

Here our political betting expert Nigel Skinner shares his advice on approaching local elections betting, what to look for and some hazards along the way.

Top 10 Political Betting Websites in the UK
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Whether for fun or profit, betting on local elections has indeed carved its niche in the world of online betting. However, it is imperative to understand it's not legal everywhere, and a keen knowledge about local regulations needs to be in place. This guide will provide a basic understanding and strategies for betting efficiently and successfully on local elections.

Definition of Political Betting

Nigel Skinner

Political Betting Expert

With a keen eye on all political events, our in-house exchange and spread betting expert, Nigel can often be found scanning the political betting markets looking for the edge combined with his local political knowledge.

- Nigel Skinner, Blog content manager

Political betting is staking money on the outcomes of political events, such as general elections, referendums, or even political leadership contests. In essence, you're predicting and placing a wager on political outcomes. It's similar to sports betting, with odds set on various outcomes; however, instead of goals scored or points obtained, you might be wagering on the number of seats a party might gain in an election or who'll triumph in a leadership race. 

Political betting is not new, although the development of online betting in the new millennium has brought the activity to a wider, politically knowledgeable group of punters.

Brief History of Betting on Local UK Elections

Betting on local UK elections has a rich history that predates the invention of the internet and mobile betting platforms. In the 18th and 19th centuries, it was common for gentlemen's clubs to place wagers on local and national elections' outcomes. Back then, the practice was called "betting on the hustings", referring to the temporary structures built for public speaking during election campaigns. Today, the internet and modern technology have made political betting on local UK elections more accessible, allowing punters to watch, wager, and engage in real-time during election campaigns.

Advantages & Disadvantages of Betting on Local UK Elections

While there are advantages to betting on local politics and elections, it should be noted that as with all forms of gambling, there is risk.

Advantages in Political Betting 

As a political betting enthusiast, let me tell you, there's something inherently exciting about betting on local UK elections. The thrill of forecasting political outcomes, the suspense around watching the results trickle in on Election Day - it's a rush. Especially when the stakes are incredibly high. Political betting intricately ties the fate of your money with the ever-changing political landscape of the UK, and it can be a thrilling ride. Additionally, your involvement in these events provides a unique perspective and deep insights into the political process and makes you a part of a heated debate among your gambling peers. 

While betting on politics can be exciting and widen the options beyond traditional sports betting, the same risk is present in all forms of gambling.

Risks Involved

However, with the thrill comes risks, and political betting is no different from other forms of gambling in this respect. Politics can be unpredictable, with unforeseen circumstances and events that can drastically change the odds. There's also the risk of putting too much faith in polls or popular opinion, which are sometimes known to be misleading. Another risk is that in-depth knowledge of political events and local specificities is required to place informed bets. All those factors combined make political betting a potentially risky endeavour. One should carefully calculate possible losses before getting involved because -- as we say in the trade -- politics can be a risky business.

Gamble Responsibly

🇬🇧💷! Between the unpredictable events and misleading polls, making informed bets requires in-depth political knowledge. Remember - as thrilling as it is, politics can be a risky business. Bet wisely! 💡✊

Best Betting Sites for Political Betting

We have a complete guide to the best political betting sites here at OLBG, but briefly.

In the detailed reviews of each site, several factors play pivotal roles:

1. Selection of Betting Markets

Smarkets Exchange leads the pack with its extensive selection of betting markets. They offer wide-ranging options, from leaders' debates to party leadership contests and election results across different constituencies. 

2. Quality of Odds

Some betting sites offer better odds than others, so it is worth checking your existing betting accounts for which local elections betting markets they offer, if any. Smarkets and SBK have the most markets and often the best odds. 

3. Site Functionality and User Experience

In terms of user experience, SBK shines brightest, with a user-friendly interface and easy navigation.

4. Security and Trustworthiness

All these sites have robust security measures to protect your personal and financial data. They're fully licensed and bear a strong reputation for trustworthiness and reliability within the betting community. Always bet with sites that guarantee your funds' safety and uphold fair play.

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In Depth Consituency betting

Explore the tables below, which provide direct links to individual constituency betting pages for safe seats, the closest races between two parties, and three-way marginals. These pages offer an in-depth insight into the local political landscape. Complementing this, each page also comprises elaborate data analysis of past general elections, enabling you to evaluate and understand historical voting patterns and trends. 

Betting Guides by Constituency

📊 Explore our table below for quick links to constituency betting pages! 📍 Get local political insights and analyze past general election data 🗳️ to improve your bet! 💡

These pages aim to serve as your comprehensive digital blueprint for informed political betting or analysis by offering essential, locale-specific political intelligence and historical election data. Dive in and equip yourself with enhanced understanding and insights that could be instrumental in shaping your betting decisions.

Close Seats

These were the closest-fought constituency seats in the 2019 general elections.
Fermanagh and South Tyrone
Bury North
Bedford
Coventry North West
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
Dagenham and Rainham
Bury South
Bolton North East
Coventry South
High Peak
Wimbledon
Sheffield, Hallam
Carshalton and Wallington
Gedling
Warwick and Leamington
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
Winchester
Cheltenham

Three Way Marginals

The constituencies with the closest result in a three-way tussle for victory
Ynys Mon
East Lothian
Barnsley East
Cities of London and Westminster
Ashfield
Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath
South Antrim
Midlothian
South Down
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Doncaster North
Barnsley Central
Finchley and Golders Green


Safe Seats

The runaway winners in the 2019 elections with the biggest majorities
Liverpool, Walton
Knowsley
Bootle
Liverpool, Riverside
Liverpool, West Derby
Manchester, Gorton
Birmingham, Ladywood
Tottenham
Walthamstow
Birmingham, Hodge Hill
South Holland and The Deepings
Liverpool, Wavertree
Hackney South and Shoreditch
Boston and Skegness
Bradford West
East Ham
Castle Point
Maldon
Lewisham, Deptford
Hackney North and Stoke Newington
Clacton
North East Cambridgeshire
Rayleigh and Wickford
Manchester Central
Louth and Horncastle
Brentwood and Ongar

Mayoral Elections

In addition to local By-Elections, there are annual Mayoral elections too,

In 2024, Ten Metro Mayoral elections occurred within the May 2nd Polling days.

Sadiq Khan, the current mayor of London; an overwhelming favourite to retain his position in the May 2nd, 2024, local elections.

We have a complete guide to betting on the Mayor of London, which provides more detailed analysis and information.

Mayor Of London Betting Odds
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What Are Metro Mayors?

A metro mayor is like the big boss of a specific region. They're chosen by the people of that area in an election. Metro mayors have the authority and funds to make important decisions about education, helping businesses, and transportation. In some places, they might also handle matters related to crime and health. They are also the head of the combined authority; a team made up of the leaders of the local councils within their region.

The Mayor of London is a little different. They aren't considered a metro mayor and have separate laws and powers governing their role. However, when people talk about giving more power to local areas (a concept known as devolution), the Mayor of London is often mentioned in the same conversation as metro mayors.

In 2024, there will be 10 mayoral elections in the following areas: 

Mayoral RegionPopulation [millions]Incumbent MayorIncumbent PartyFavourite to win in 2024Probability as of 29th April
North East1.97n/aNewly FormedKim McGuiness (Lab)80.0%
Tees Valley0.68Ben HouchenConservativeBen Houchen (Cons)63.29%
York & North Yorkshire0.82n/aNewly FormedKeane Duncan (Cons)
West Yorkshire2.35Tracey BrabinLabour

Greater Manchester2.87Andy BurnhamLabour

Liverpool City Region1.56Steve RotheramLabour

South Yorkshire1.37Oliver CoppardLabour

East Midlands2.20n/aNewly FormedClaire Ward (Lab)90.91%
West Midlands2.92Andy StreetConservativeRichard Parker (Lab)66.67%
Greater London8.80Sadiq KhanLabourSadiq Khan (Lab)94.34%

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