Many people bet based on headlines or hunches. I dig into research and market moves behind political odds & manager markets, so you can back decisions, not guesses.
- Bookies now go 1/2 that the Conservatives will lose 201 or more seats at the upcoming General Election
- Labour are 1/33 to win the General Election which we now know will take place on July 4th
- Special odds also offered on different MP's to win seats at the next General Election
Bookies now go 1/2 that the Conservatives will lose 201 or more seats at the upcoming General Election
Betting odds are now being offered on a variety of betting specials around the upcoming General Election with bookmakers having markets up around how the Conservative Party will do at the polls.
William Hill's latest betting market makes it 1/2 that the Conservatives will lose 201 or more seats at the upcoming General Election with a red wall expected to return across the UK.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called an election for 4 July yesterday in rainy press conference outside 10 Downing Street and he and Keir Starmer have started their campaigns today.
The latest odds give an implied probability of 66.7% that it's a massive loss for the Conservatives at the polls in July with 201 or more seats being lost by the party.
| Total Conservative Seats Lost at the next General Election | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| No Losses | 150/1 | 0.7% |
| 1-50 Seats Lost | 40/1 | 2.4% |
| 51-100 Seats Lost | 25/1 | 3.8% |
| 101-150 Seats Lost | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| 151-200 Seats Lost | 5/2 | 28.6% |
| 201 or more Seats Lost | 2/5 | 71.4% |
What the expert says...
Labour are 1/33 to win the General Election which we now know will take place on July 4th
Labour are massive favourites to win the upcoming General Election with their odds not changing in the past month to win at the polls on 4 July.
The latest odds put them far clear in the betting market above the Conservatives with an 88% difference in implied probability given judging by the latest odds.
Sir Keir Starmer will be hoping that his party steam-rolls the opposition at the polls in July with a massive win expected according to various reports.
| UK General Election Winner | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 1/33 | 97.1% |
| Conservative | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| Reform UK | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Liberal Democrat | 200/1 | 0.5% |
| Greens | 500/1 | 0.2% |
Special odds also offered on different MP's to win seats at the next General Election
Bookies have also been offering betting specials on a number of popular politicians to secure a seat at the next General Election with some big names featured.
One of those names that had previously featured in the betting odds is Nigel Farage but earlier today he announced that he will not be running at the next General Election.
Farage said that he would "do my bit to help" the Reform UK party at the upcoming campaign but that this would go no further and he would not be running for a seat.
| To Win Any Seat at Next General Election | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Rishi Sunak to Win any Seat at Next General Election | 1/7 | 87.5% |
| Jeremy Corbyn to Win any Seat at Next General Election | 6/4 | 40.0% |
| George Galloway to Win any Seat at Next General Election | 3/1 | 25.0% |
| Boris Johnson to Win any Seat at Next General Election | 6/1 | 14.3% |
The Current Safe Seats with the biggest majorities in the 2019 General Election are shown below
Safe Seats
The Closest-Fought constituencies in the 2019 General Election feature some big areas
Close Seats
| These were the closest-fought constituency seats in the 2019 general elections. | ||
|---|---|---|
| Fermanagh and South Tyrone | Bury North | Bedford |
| Coventry North West | Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross | Dagenham and Rainham |
| Bury South | Bolton North East | Coventry South |
| High Peak | Wimbledon | Sheffield, Hallam |
| Carshalton and Wallington | Gedling | Warwick and Leamington |
| West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine | Winchester | Cheltenham |
