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Bookmakers now go 2-1 for a General Election in 2023 - What Are Labour's Chances?

Steve Madgwick

Published: Sep 23, 9:22am Last Updated: Sep 28, 12:39pm 0 Comments 21 Views

Kier Starmer Leader of the Labour Party and joint favourite to be the next prime minister after Boris Johnson

Conference Pending

The Labour party conference will take place from this weekend in Brighton and things are set to get heated with the reinstatement of the leadership electoral college bandied about before we've even got started.

Betting sites have reacted with a switch-up in betting odds on a range of political betting markets.

The Next Prime Minister betting odds with bookmakers is particularly interesting with Kier Starmer (Labour) the joint-favourite with Rishi Sunak (Conservative) despite various factors having to come together to secure the position. Still, Starmer is currently given a 4/1 chance at betting sites.

Nigel Skinner - Political Betting Expert -

At the same time, the chance of an early general election taking place gains ground with punters placing bets on when it will happen.

Whilst all this is going on, Kier Starmer is almost the same price as Rishi Sunak to be the next Prime minister after Boris Johnson which suggests no chance of a conservative leadership change ahead of a general election. Betting on the next Prime Minister remains a popular market and it currently makes for interesting reading

Next Prime Minister After Boris Johnson Betting Odds.

MP Odds Probability
Rishi Sunak 4.7 21.28%
Kier Starmer 4.8 20.83%
Liz Truss 13 7.69%
Michael Gove 17 5.88%

**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 23/9/2021

Next Labour Leader

The chances of Kier Starmer becoming the next Prime Minister after Boris Johnson does rely on a number of factors, however.

  1. Labour winning the next general election
  2. Starmer still being the leader

There is also betting on who will be the next leader after Starmer should he resign or lose his position.

Andy Burnham is the current 5/2 favourite to be the next Labour leader after Kier Starmer but has Angela Rayner close on his heels as betting support grows for her chance.

Nigel Skinner - Political Betting Expert -

Andy Burnham and Angela Rayner are waiting in the wings with the latter finding. Lisa Nandy is also in betting on the next Labour leader but her future in the Labour Party is less assured.

Next Labour Leader Betting Odds

Next Labour Leader Odds Probability
Andy Burnham 5/2 28.57%
Angela Rayner 4/1 20%
Lisa Nandy 10/1 9%
Yvette Cooper 16/1 6%

**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 23/9/2021

Fire in the Hole

Things are sure to be interesting at the conference with Starmer citing the reintroduction of the leadership electoral college and opening up the choice of party leader to all party members rather than the Corbynite favoritism in the current system.

A situation that is inflaming the left and Unions ahead of the meeting in Brighton and sure to be a hot topic.

Labour to reintroduce leadership electoral college betting

Reintroduction Odds Probability
Yes 6/4 40%
No 1/2 66%

**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 23/9/2021

The Leadership Electoral College will be a hot topic this next week at the Labour Party Conference in Brighton. There remains a 66% chance with Bookmakers that it will not be reintroduced, however.

Nigel Skinner - Political Betting Expert -

Date of Next General Election

A standard scheduled General Election has always been favoured by punters betting on which year the next will take place but since May this year, there has been continued support for it to happen a year early in 2023.

Betting on the next General Election has ramped up in recent months and the odds between 2023 and 2024 have got closer.

Year of Next General Election Betting Odds

Year Odds Probability
2024 or later 4/6 60%
2023 7/4 36%
2022 14/1 6%


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